Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Coal City, WV
May 5, 2024 12:05 AM EDT (04:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:22 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:52 AM Moonset 4:42 PM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 050250 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1050 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1045 PM Saturday...
Refined PoPs a bit for the overnight hours, with activity being generally more of the isolated nature going forward given loss of diurnal heating. Locally heavy downpours do remain possible, however. The trend continues to be for more clearing overnight in spots, which in turn, will result in greater fog potential, having already developed across portions of the far southern FA per GOES satellite imagery. Given such, have significantly increased fog coverage later tonight across much of the FA. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 750 PM Saturday...
Locally heavy rain across central/southern portions of the forecast area has diminished over the last few hours, with another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving slowly into the Mid-Ohio Valley at present in association with another upper level wave. The best chance for rain throughout the rest of the evening and overnight will be across the central/northern portion of the CWA as the aforementioned upper disturbance gradually slides north of the region. Locally heavy rain remains possible in spots, potentially resulting in a highly isolated water issue or two.
Have updated PoPs for tonight into Sunday, trending PoPs (in general) a bit lower. Finally, did insert fog into the forecast for some of the central/southern river valleys. Some clearing appears possible later tonight. If so, some fog development is likely given the moist lower atmosphere and light BL flow. For the time being, trended conservative on fog coverage given uncertainty in the amount of clearing that will occur. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 120 PM Saturday...
A moist southerly flow will combine with some upper level disturbances and afternoon heating to provide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Chances for precipitation will lessen later tonight, but still can't be ruled out. A weak cold front then pushes into the area on Sunday, providing more showers and thunderstorms.
While much of the area remains rather dry, if thunderstorms train over an area or hit an area that previously had a significant amount of precipitation, then isolated flash flooding could occur.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 1229 PM Saturday...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Monday with a stalled surface front over northern WV and a 500-mb shortwave approaching from the southwest. The severe weather threat still looks low Monday with weak 0-6 km shear of 15-25 kts. The threat of flooding also looks low Monday, but any storms that train over the same areas could potentially lead to localized flooding. Flash flood guidance should be high enough and storms should be isolated enough so that flooding won't be a widespread concern.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1229 PM Saturday...
The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week with daily thunderstorm chances. However, the time to watch for severe weather and flooding potential appear to be Wednesday and possibly also on Thursday. Our region will be located in the warm sector of a strengthening mid-latitude cyclone both days. Models are showing modest 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts. Instability looks a little more favorable Wednesday than Thursday with MLCAPE values reaching 1,000-1,500 J/kg Wednesday afternoon. In addition, models are also showing PWAT values of 1.50-1.75" Wednesday into Thursday, so the threat of flooding will have to be monitored. SPC currently has portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky outlooked in a 15% threat of severe weather Wednesday, and WPC also has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall along and west of the Ohio River Wednesday.
Stay tuned for new details over the coming days. Expect high temperatures reaching the 70s-80s in the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains each day through Thursday.
Showers will remain possible Friday, but a cold front will likely pass through the region Friday afternoon from west to east, bringing drier air behind it. The pattern looks more tranquil and cooler heading into next weekend with highs back into the 60s.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 820 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions persist in general across the area tonight, with a few exceptions. First, brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Second, some MVFR CIG restrictions will occur, but primarily in/near the mountains. Finally, valley fog is possible later tonight, but will be highly dependent on the amount of clearing that occurs.
The areas of most confidence are in the river valleys of southern WV and southwest VA.
The chance for SCT showers and ISOL thunderstorms continues on Sunday, primarily in the afternoon/evening hours. However, rainfall should be less widespread than today. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible with any heavier showers or thunderstorms.
Calm or light S/SE flow is expected tonight. Light SW/WSW flow is expected on Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and intensity tonight could vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible throughout the TAF period in heavier showers or any thunderstorms.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/05/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L M M M L M H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Sunday night and Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1050 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1045 PM Saturday...
Refined PoPs a bit for the overnight hours, with activity being generally more of the isolated nature going forward given loss of diurnal heating. Locally heavy downpours do remain possible, however. The trend continues to be for more clearing overnight in spots, which in turn, will result in greater fog potential, having already developed across portions of the far southern FA per GOES satellite imagery. Given such, have significantly increased fog coverage later tonight across much of the FA. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 750 PM Saturday...
Locally heavy rain across central/southern portions of the forecast area has diminished over the last few hours, with another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving slowly into the Mid-Ohio Valley at present in association with another upper level wave. The best chance for rain throughout the rest of the evening and overnight will be across the central/northern portion of the CWA as the aforementioned upper disturbance gradually slides north of the region. Locally heavy rain remains possible in spots, potentially resulting in a highly isolated water issue or two.
Have updated PoPs for tonight into Sunday, trending PoPs (in general) a bit lower. Finally, did insert fog into the forecast for some of the central/southern river valleys. Some clearing appears possible later tonight. If so, some fog development is likely given the moist lower atmosphere and light BL flow. For the time being, trended conservative on fog coverage given uncertainty in the amount of clearing that will occur. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 120 PM Saturday...
A moist southerly flow will combine with some upper level disturbances and afternoon heating to provide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Chances for precipitation will lessen later tonight, but still can't be ruled out. A weak cold front then pushes into the area on Sunday, providing more showers and thunderstorms.
While much of the area remains rather dry, if thunderstorms train over an area or hit an area that previously had a significant amount of precipitation, then isolated flash flooding could occur.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 1229 PM Saturday...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Monday with a stalled surface front over northern WV and a 500-mb shortwave approaching from the southwest. The severe weather threat still looks low Monday with weak 0-6 km shear of 15-25 kts. The threat of flooding also looks low Monday, but any storms that train over the same areas could potentially lead to localized flooding. Flash flood guidance should be high enough and storms should be isolated enough so that flooding won't be a widespread concern.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1229 PM Saturday...
The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week with daily thunderstorm chances. However, the time to watch for severe weather and flooding potential appear to be Wednesday and possibly also on Thursday. Our region will be located in the warm sector of a strengthening mid-latitude cyclone both days. Models are showing modest 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts. Instability looks a little more favorable Wednesday than Thursday with MLCAPE values reaching 1,000-1,500 J/kg Wednesday afternoon. In addition, models are also showing PWAT values of 1.50-1.75" Wednesday into Thursday, so the threat of flooding will have to be monitored. SPC currently has portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky outlooked in a 15% threat of severe weather Wednesday, and WPC also has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall along and west of the Ohio River Wednesday.
Stay tuned for new details over the coming days. Expect high temperatures reaching the 70s-80s in the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains each day through Thursday.
Showers will remain possible Friday, but a cold front will likely pass through the region Friday afternoon from west to east, bringing drier air behind it. The pattern looks more tranquil and cooler heading into next weekend with highs back into the 60s.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 820 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions persist in general across the area tonight, with a few exceptions. First, brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Second, some MVFR CIG restrictions will occur, but primarily in/near the mountains. Finally, valley fog is possible later tonight, but will be highly dependent on the amount of clearing that occurs.
The areas of most confidence are in the river valleys of southern WV and southwest VA.
The chance for SCT showers and ISOL thunderstorms continues on Sunday, primarily in the afternoon/evening hours. However, rainfall should be less widespread than today. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible with any heavier showers or thunderstorms.
Calm or light S/SE flow is expected tonight. Light SW/WSW flow is expected on Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and intensity tonight could vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible throughout the TAF period in heavier showers or any thunderstorms.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/05/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L M M M L M H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Sunday night and Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBKW RALEIGH COUNTY MEMORIAL,WV | 13 sm | 14 min | SSE 10G18 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 30.08 | |
| KBLF MERCER COUNTY,WV | 22 sm | 13 min | SSE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 30.11 |
Blacksburg, VA,
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