Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 1:53 AM   Moonset 11:50 AM

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FXUS61 KRLX 011836 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 236 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

Models showing a frontal boundary moving through the area this afternoon and evening. Due to a lack of moisture however, no precipitation is expected, only a few clouds. A high pressure system will provide calm winds over the area tonight. Drier air in the lower levels today will mix down and cause surface dewpoints to drop enough such that fog shouldn't be an issue for most locations tonight. Light winds and dry weather will continue on Thursday with plenty of sunshine.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as upper level ridging slowly works east through the region. Despite daytime highs nearly 15 degrees above normal values for this time of the year, high temperature records should be secure.

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting shifting east Friday along surface low pressure transiting the Upper Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values edge up toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night. Upper level support for this feature largely stays well to the north allowing the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday. This will also keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding relatively slow storm motions. Could potentially have some very isolated water issues accumulate with multiple slow moving storms moving over the same location, but given the state of vegetation and recent dry conditions, concerns are relatively low.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

A northern stream shortwave approaching late Saturday night into Sunday morning will better focus precipitation chances, but a modest increase in mid-level flow will also allow for faster storm motions further limiting any threat for flash flooding.

Should see a brief break in showery activity late Sunday into early Monday morning as transient ridging briefly builds ahead of warm frontal passage during the day Monday bringing additional showers and thunderstorms.

The weak flow regime comes to an end Wednesday as ridging over the eastern half of the country shifts east allowing stronger upper level flow to return to the region. This would yield increasing concerns for strong to severe storms during the day Wednesday, but this will hinge heavily on eventual cold frontal timing.

Daytime highs remain modestly above normal values for this time of the year, but with added Gulf influenced moisture overnight lows will be within a few degrees of their record high minimums overnight.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions can generally be expected through the period, although a few locations could see fog late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not occur late tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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