Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coal City, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:16PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:07 PM EST (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:28AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coal City, WV
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location: 37.62, -81.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 121940
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
240 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks east of the area, while cold front crosses
tonight. High pressure Wednesday. Another low tracks over the
area Wednesday night through Thursday night. Cold front Sunday.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 223 pm Monday...

high resolution models show a developing sfc low pressure
center, tracking north northeast along the spine of the
appalachians tonight into Tuesday. This low pressure will
produce pcpn across the eastern half of the area, while the
fropa will produce additional light pcpn across northeast ky,
southeast oh, southwest va and the rest of wv. Coded categorical
pops per model consensus across the eastern half of the area
tonight. Increase pops from west to east accounting for fropa
pcpn tonight.

Vertical temperature profiles indicate warm layer aloft
dominating the pcpn type to all liquid. Models are in agreement
bringing strong cold air advection late overnight tonight under
northwest flow. However, expect low QPF along the cold front to
produce light rain showers. Perhaps, colder air filters in near
the sfc to produce a period of mixed rain and ice pellets or
snow spreading from west to east Tuesday morning. By mid day,
all pcpn will be transition back to liquid, expect upslope snow
over the northeast mountains, diminishing towards Tuesday
evening. However, amounts will be minimal, as precipitation will
be ending from the west at the time the best cold air moves
over the area.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s, with freezing
temperatures over portions of southeast oh and northeast
mountains of wv. Highs on Tuesday will only increase few degrees
during the day, barely reaching the lower 40s central sections
of wv.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
As of 240 pm Monday...

5h trough digs across the great lakes as moisture pulls to the
east. We will see a slight rebound in height values into
Wednesday night as southern stream system makes its approach. A
warm-occluded front in association with nearly barotropic
southern stream low will track north Wednesday night and
Thursday. Secondary cyclogenesis takes place off the east coast
of the us to close out the period. A lot is going to hinge on
timing the precip onset Wednesday night, and how rapidly low
levels are scoured out west of the appalachian range. There are
considerable differences in how the models are handling the
details, mainly due to how fast they shift the cut-off low
northward. For the big picture, track and placement of system
points to a warm wedge working up through central WV and the oh
valley with considerable cold air damming occurring east of the
appalachians Wednesday night and Thursday. Have generally
trended toward the faster GFS model, in terms of how quickly
warmer air makes its way in. Still could see a period over
several hours where a wintry mix of precipitation occurs late
Wednesday and early Thursday. Atmospheric column warms up
considerably during the day on Thursday for a quick transition
to all liquid. However, some colder spots in elevated mountain
valleys may have some lingering -fzra into the daytime hours.

Since there is still some uncertainty in the models in these
dynamic conditions, have elected to hold of on possible
headlines.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 240 pm Monday...

afore-mentioned southern stream system pulls out Friday and
Saturday. The GFS is faster clearing the system, but lingering
showers over the east mountains will still be in play Saturday.

Then a cold canadian airmass settles in across the northern tier
of the us. Models generally agree that a cold front will sag
across the region Saturday night, furthering our chances for
some light snow, as 5h trough sweeps across the great lakes.

Tough axis shifts into the northeastern quadrant of the us by
Monday for continued unseasonably cool weather. Model blends
were accepted.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
As of 1230 pm Monday...

vfr conditions will continue through at least 23z under areas
of -ra spreading north across the area. This rain is falling
from high deck around 6-7kft. Brief periods of ice pellets could
occur, but will transition quickly to light rain this
afternoon.

Sref model suggests ceilings will begin to deteriorate to
MVFR lifr around 23z from south to north as areas of light rain
continue to lift north over our area tonight. The best chance
for ifr is bkw on ceilings. Conditions should improve to
vfr MVFR by 15z Tuesday, remaining MVFR ceilings along the
eastern mountains through Tuesday evening.

Light to calm winds will become light north to northeast over
the middle ohio valley, and light southeast over the central
appalachians this evening into tonight. Surface flow will become
light northwest throughout the middle ohio valley central
appalachians overnight tonight, once the low GOES by.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Tuesday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: timing of deteriorating ceilings may vary. Ifr
ceilings may not happen tonight, especially at sites other than
bkw.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
est 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h l h h m m m m
hts consistency h h h h h h l h h m h m
bkw consistency h h h m m h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h m m h m l h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h m m m h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h m h h m m m
after 18z Tuesday...

ifr conditions possible in snow showers mainly northeast
mountains Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Ifr possible in rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet overnight
Wednesday night, rain Thursday, and then in rain and snow
showers Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Arj mpk
near term... Arj
short term... Kmc
long term... Kmc
aviation... Arj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beckley, Raleigh County Memorial Airport, WV13 mi77 minESE 610.00 miLight Rain37°F35°F93%1021.9 hPa
Pineville, Kee Field Airport, WV18 mi78 minno data5.00 miUnknown Precip40°F39°F96%1021 hPa
Bluefield, Mercer County Airport, WV22 mi76 minE 40.50 miLight Rain Fog36°F36°F100%1021.4 hPa

Wind History from BKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE5SE9SE7SE8SE7SE7SE7E3SE9CalmCalmSE53SE5SE10SE8SE9SE7SE5SE7E3SE6SE7
1 day agoCalmN3CalmSE3E3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6SE10SE9SE7S5S5S4W4E3SE6SE7
2 days agoNW7W8NW9
G17
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NW11NW9
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--NW10
G19
--NW8N10N8Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.