Wednesday, December12, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Wilroads Gardens, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:23PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 2:31 AM CST (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:44AMMoonset 10:19PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilroads Gardens, KS
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location: 37.64, -100     debug

Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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Fxus63 kddc 120557
area forecast discussion
national weather service dodge city ks
1157 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018

Updated for aviation discussion...

Short term (this afternoon through Wednesday)
issued at 1040 am cst Tue dec 11 2018
widespread thick cirrostratus prevailed across the central and
southern plains as of late morning. Strong shortwave near the
black hills currently, will swing through nebraska through this
evening, pushing an attendant weak cold front and nwly wind shift
through SW ks. NW winds will gust 25-30 mph for a few hours this
afternoon, and cirrus will rapidly clear from west to east around
sunset. Despite the cirrus, afternoon temperatures well above
normal in the 50s.

Clear tonight with lows in the 20s.

Wednesday will be pleasant for december standards, with much more
sunshine, and temperatures again well above normal in the 50s.

Sw winds of 10-20 mph by late Wednesday morning will back to a
more southerly direction through the afternoon, as an intense
shortwave and jet dynamics dive SE through the great basin. In
response to the incoming energy, 12z nam GFS develop their
initial surface low in the baca county, co cimarron county, ok
vicinity by 6 pm. This synoptic evolution will keep the winds at
bay with no impacts expected through the daylight hours Wednesday.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 135 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018

Intense north winds expected Thursday...

model agreement is improving on the advertised strong winter storm
projected to pass south of SW ks on Thursday. 12z gfs ECMWF both
rapidly close off a deep cyclone near lubbock, tx early Thursday
morning, and then track the center of the strengthening, closed
upper low to near dallas, tx around 6 pm Thursday. This track will
keep most, if not all, accumulating rain and or snow south of us
again, across oklahoma and texas. Have noted 12z GFS spreads light
snow further northward, hugging the kansas oklahoma border, late
Wednesday night through Thursday. Pop grids were retained for
light rain snow showers given the GFS solutions, but ECMWF would
suggest our forecast is too wet. At any rate, rain snow amounts,
if any, would be very light anyway, and not a concern in
themselves. The concern is that any snow showers developing in the
forecasted high wind event, would deliver serious visibility
impacts in a hurry. This potential will need to be monitored, but
again the 12z ECMWF suggests most locations in SW ks will remain

We have high confidence of intense north winds across kansas as
this storm strengthens and passes to our south. After extensive
coordination with neighboring NWS offices, have opted to issue a
high wind watch for all counties (except the northern six
counties) for Thursday. For scott, lane, ness, rush, trego and
ellis counties, the north winds will be certainly very strong
there as well, but am not confident they will reach high wind
warning criteria (40 mph sustained 58 mph gust) along and north of k-
96. Confidence in high wind warning criteria being achieved
increases with southern extent, with the highest confidence along
the oklahoma border. Across our southern zones, several models
continue to suggest that wind gusts as high as 70 mph may occur.

Models continue to paint a bimodal distribution in forecasted wind
velocity, with one peak occurring with the initial cold frontal
surge down the plains late Wednesday night, and then another peak
around maximum mixing approximately midday Thursday. In both
cases, the strongest winds are expected south of us highway 50,
nearest the deepening cyclone to the south, and some minor
structural damage is possible. Models for the past two days have
consistently suggested the strongest winds in our CWA will occur
in the liberal vicinity, and this thinking was retained when
developing the grids and forecast. Areas of dust are likely in
these areas, locally reducing visibility. Mentioned both areas of
blowing dust and snow in the high wind watch product, with higher
confidence with verifying dust. Thursday will certainly be much
cooler, but with limited cold air advection behind this pacific
system, temperatures will only fall back to near mid-december
normals in the 40s.

N NW winds will diminish gradually Thursday evening, and allowed
the high wind watch to end at 6 pm Thursday.

Friday through next Tuesday... That's about it for weather
excitement or impacts for quite a while. Closed low in the lower
mississippi valley Friday edges east, allowing ridging to expand
northward through the desert SW and rockies. This ridge axis
phases east onto the plains Saturday, providing beautiful weather
for december standards. Afternoon temperatures in the 50s will be
commonplace. A weak shortwave cold front will dent our mild
pattern Sunday with a wind shift, followed by another ridge axis
Monday and Tuesday for more quiet delightful weather. Extended
12z ECMWF for dec 19-20 is also very quiet, with dry NW flow aloft
and established pna across north america. High confidence on a dry
forecast for quite some time.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1153 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
winds will become southerly between 16-18z ahead of a cold front
and then shift to the north toward the end of the period. Much
stronger north winds are expected just after the period.VFR
conditions can be expected with only some mid to high level
clouds, but MVFR CIGS are possible after the TAF period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Ddc 24 56 31 42 0 0 10 10
gck 21 56 28 42 0 0 30 0
eha 27 58 29 44 0 0 30 10
lbl 22 56 30 44 0 0 20 10
hys 25 55 30 42 0 0 10 10
p28 28 54 33 43 0 0 10 30

Ddc watches warnings advisories
High wind watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for ksz043>045-061>066-074>081-084>090.

Short term... Turner
long term... Turner
aviation... Finch

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dodge City, Dodge City Regional Airport, KS10 mi40 minWSW 510.00 miFair24°F18°F77%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from DDC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS12S11S12
1 day agoNW9W5NW7NW4NW5W7W6W6W6W9W8W5S4SW7SW6S7S7S9S8S8S10S11S11S10
2 days agoW5SW7W7SW6W5NW10NW10N7N10N11N8--NW7N6CalmNW3NW3N9N6N6W3W6W7NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Dodge City, KS (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dodge City, KS
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.