Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS
May 20, 2024 4:24 AM CDT (09:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 5:16 PM Moonset 3:40 AM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 200700 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Updated Short/Long Term
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread low stratus clouds are expected Monday morning.
- Strong thunderstorms are possible along I-70 Monday night/Tuesday morning.
- Cooler temperatures on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Midnight radar and satellite imagery depicted severe thunderstorms in progress in NW Oklahoma, just south of the KS/OK border. These storms are expected to remain south of Barber county, and all storms are done for the night. Surface observations revealed light E/SEly upslope flow, supporting moisture advection northwestward back into SW KS. This moisture will manifest itself as a widespread stratus deck through Monday morning, with strong consensus from the short range models of low stratus being common by 7 am. Given stratus and moisture advection, minimum temperatures will again be above normal in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Stratus will erode from south to north in the strong late May sun on Monday, but exactly how quickly the stratus clears will have an impact on afternoon temperatures. Feel 00z NAM is too cold, but did trim inherited highs of the lower 90s back to the upper 80s for most zones. Temperatures at 4 pm Monday will range from near 80 along I- 70, to the upper 90s in the far southwest zones. Winds will be trend light SEly through the afternoon, in response to a new surface cyclone deepening in SE Colorado. 00z NAM shows instability building strongly, especially adjacent to Oklahoma, as the stratus clears midday and afternoon. CAMs, which performed very well Sunday with the stronger forcing, are very quiet Monday and resistant to developing any convection. As such, all grids are dry through 7 pm Monday, with the expectation of the capping inversion holding through at least the daytime hours.
SE Colorado surface low at 7 pm Monday, will move northeast, to near Syracuse at midnight, and near Wakeeney 7 am Tuesday.
Moisture and instability will be strong over the eastern counties Monday evening, but again the expectation is for this airmass to remain capped and quiet, with any storms relegated to areas northeast of Hays, near the KS/NE border. Both 00z NAM/GFS warm 700 mb temperatures to the 13-14C range Monday evening, which will ensure most if not all locations will remain capped and dry. Models depict the next strong shortwave arriving along the KS/CO border around 7 am Tuesday, out of phase with the diurnal heating cycle, which will also work against convective development. Marginal 5% wind/hail SPC probabilities across northern zones would most likely verify after midnight Tuesday morning, as the surface low and shortwave eject into Kansas. Given the nocturnal timing, significant severe wind/hail is not expected, and model guidance is very resistant in generating convective QPF.
Dryslot will overspread SW KS Tuesday, as the strong shortwave ejects into the upper Mississippi valley. Behind the associated cold front, winds will trend west, then northwest, and then finally north, ushering in cooler, drier and much more stable air. Forecast Tuesday is dry for all zones. Only minor cool advection is forecast, allowing afternoon temperatures to remain in the 80-90 range. Again, felt MOS guidance was too cool, with NWly downslope masking any cooling.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Strong cold front for late May standards will push through SW KS Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with elevated north winds ushering in cooler and drier air. NBM remains consistent with other guidance, forecasting the coolest day of this week to be Wednesday. Cool advection will lower sunrise temperatures into the 40s for many zones sunrise Wednesday, with many locations remaining in the 70s Wednesday afternoon. A comfortable spring day will be enjoyed with few if any clouds by afternoon.
The next closed cyclone will be associated with the northern branch of the jet stream, centered near eastern Oregon 7 pm Wednesday. EPS/GEFS ensemble members eject this system well to the north, into the Dakotas, 7 pm Thursday. Southerly flow will return in response on Thursday across the plains, with associated moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico, and the reestablishment of a north-south oriented dryline along the length of the high plains. Primary forcing for ascent will clearly be well to the north in the Dakotas, but can't rule out diurnally generated isolated convection in the dryline circulation during peak heating, and kept low pops offered by the NBM.
Associated with the Dakotas shortwave, the next cold front is expected to advance through SW KS Friday, with more north winds and cooler temperatures. NBM looks too warm here, with 00z MEX much cooler, with highs only in the lower 70s at DDC Friday.
Indeed, 00z GEFS ensemble member probability of max temperatures greater than 80 across much of SW KS Friday is < 50%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Thunderstorms have ended across SW KS as of 0330z Mon. Strong consensus of short term models is for IFR stratus to spread rapidly to all airports through 12z Mon, in response to a strong moisture return on light moist easterly upslope flow. Some reduced visibility in BR/FG is possible, but the high confidence is with the stratus. After 15z Mon, stratus is expected to dissolve from south to north, with VFR returning to all airports. Light winds will trend light SEly through 00z Tue.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Updated Short/Long Term
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread low stratus clouds are expected Monday morning.
- Strong thunderstorms are possible along I-70 Monday night/Tuesday morning.
- Cooler temperatures on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Midnight radar and satellite imagery depicted severe thunderstorms in progress in NW Oklahoma, just south of the KS/OK border. These storms are expected to remain south of Barber county, and all storms are done for the night. Surface observations revealed light E/SEly upslope flow, supporting moisture advection northwestward back into SW KS. This moisture will manifest itself as a widespread stratus deck through Monday morning, with strong consensus from the short range models of low stratus being common by 7 am. Given stratus and moisture advection, minimum temperatures will again be above normal in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Stratus will erode from south to north in the strong late May sun on Monday, but exactly how quickly the stratus clears will have an impact on afternoon temperatures. Feel 00z NAM is too cold, but did trim inherited highs of the lower 90s back to the upper 80s for most zones. Temperatures at 4 pm Monday will range from near 80 along I- 70, to the upper 90s in the far southwest zones. Winds will be trend light SEly through the afternoon, in response to a new surface cyclone deepening in SE Colorado. 00z NAM shows instability building strongly, especially adjacent to Oklahoma, as the stratus clears midday and afternoon. CAMs, which performed very well Sunday with the stronger forcing, are very quiet Monday and resistant to developing any convection. As such, all grids are dry through 7 pm Monday, with the expectation of the capping inversion holding through at least the daytime hours.
SE Colorado surface low at 7 pm Monday, will move northeast, to near Syracuse at midnight, and near Wakeeney 7 am Tuesday.
Moisture and instability will be strong over the eastern counties Monday evening, but again the expectation is for this airmass to remain capped and quiet, with any storms relegated to areas northeast of Hays, near the KS/NE border. Both 00z NAM/GFS warm 700 mb temperatures to the 13-14C range Monday evening, which will ensure most if not all locations will remain capped and dry. Models depict the next strong shortwave arriving along the KS/CO border around 7 am Tuesday, out of phase with the diurnal heating cycle, which will also work against convective development. Marginal 5% wind/hail SPC probabilities across northern zones would most likely verify after midnight Tuesday morning, as the surface low and shortwave eject into Kansas. Given the nocturnal timing, significant severe wind/hail is not expected, and model guidance is very resistant in generating convective QPF.
Dryslot will overspread SW KS Tuesday, as the strong shortwave ejects into the upper Mississippi valley. Behind the associated cold front, winds will trend west, then northwest, and then finally north, ushering in cooler, drier and much more stable air. Forecast Tuesday is dry for all zones. Only minor cool advection is forecast, allowing afternoon temperatures to remain in the 80-90 range. Again, felt MOS guidance was too cool, with NWly downslope masking any cooling.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Strong cold front for late May standards will push through SW KS Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with elevated north winds ushering in cooler and drier air. NBM remains consistent with other guidance, forecasting the coolest day of this week to be Wednesday. Cool advection will lower sunrise temperatures into the 40s for many zones sunrise Wednesday, with many locations remaining in the 70s Wednesday afternoon. A comfortable spring day will be enjoyed with few if any clouds by afternoon.
The next closed cyclone will be associated with the northern branch of the jet stream, centered near eastern Oregon 7 pm Wednesday. EPS/GEFS ensemble members eject this system well to the north, into the Dakotas, 7 pm Thursday. Southerly flow will return in response on Thursday across the plains, with associated moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico, and the reestablishment of a north-south oriented dryline along the length of the high plains. Primary forcing for ascent will clearly be well to the north in the Dakotas, but can't rule out diurnally generated isolated convection in the dryline circulation during peak heating, and kept low pops offered by the NBM.
Associated with the Dakotas shortwave, the next cold front is expected to advance through SW KS Friday, with more north winds and cooler temperatures. NBM looks too warm here, with 00z MEX much cooler, with highs only in the lower 70s at DDC Friday.
Indeed, 00z GEFS ensemble member probability of max temperatures greater than 80 across much of SW KS Friday is < 50%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Thunderstorms have ended across SW KS as of 0330z Mon. Strong consensus of short term models is for IFR stratus to spread rapidly to all airports through 12z Mon, in response to a strong moisture return on light moist easterly upslope flow. Some reduced visibility in BR/FG is possible, but the high confidence is with the stratus. After 15z Mon, stratus is expected to dissolve from south to north, with VFR returning to all airports. Light winds will trend light SEly through 00z Tue.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 8 sm | 32 min | SE 10 | 7 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 29.74 |
Dodge City, KS,
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