Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irvington, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:53PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 5:15 AM EST (10:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 7:32PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 326 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Through 7 am..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers late in the evening. Showers likely after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 15 kt. Waves 1 foot...building to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt...becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 326 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast today. Weak low pressure moves northeast along the coast tonight ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday morning. High pressure builds back into the area for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irvington, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 210850
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
350 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure along the north carolina this morning will shift
farther offshore this afternoon. Weak low pressure develops
along the southeast coast tonight, and tracks northeast and off
the mid atlantic coast on Wednesday as a cold front pushes
through the local area. High pressure builds back into the
region Wednesday afternoon through Friday as low pressure
lingers from florida to south carolina.

Near term through tonight
Latest analysis indicating ~1025 mb sfc high pressure centered
over eastern nc, providing dry and cool conditions early this
morning. Strengthening SW flow aloft is allowing for increasing
high clouds to stream into the region out ahead of a sharpening
trough across the mid-ms valley. Temperatures are quite variable
early this morning due to mainly clear skies and winds that vary
from calm to SW at 5-10 mph. Areas with the mixing have
temperatures genly ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s, while
locations with no mixing are in the upper 20s to lower 30s for
the most part. After 12-13z, under mostly sunny skies and
increasing ssw low level flow should see a fairly rapid rise in
temperatures followed by a milder afternoon with highs ranging
from around 60 f N NW to the mid 60s se. Bufkit soundings and a
look a upstream GOES satellite imagery suggest the high clouds
will gradually thicken later today with some sct bkn cumulus
developing over the far SE where low level moisture will be
somewhat higher. Still too dry for any rain through 00z and
overall looks mostly sunny this morning then partly sunny for
the aftn.

A quick moving NRN stream wave lifts into the northeast wed
with the trailing cold front crossing the local area by 12z wed.

Meanwhile, a weak sfc low progged to lift n-ne along the mid-
atlantic coast wed. Where the models continue to differ is just
how far west any measurable pcpn gets. GFS is closer to the
coast with the NAM sref ECMWF favoring some light pcpn as far
west as the piedmont. Best lift progged east of i95 between 06z-
12z wed. Thus, expect a period of showers mainly along and east
of i-95 after midnight... Quickly shifting toward the coast
around 12z then offshore by 15z wed. Kept likely pops east of
i95 with chc pops to the west for now. Lows tues night in the
40s to lwr 50s se. Little QPF west of i95, .10 to .25 east.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
Given the spread in the models between the drier GFS and
slower wetter nam, have bumped pops up a bit along the coast
through 15z Wed morning to high chance (40-50%) with low-end
likely pops just off the coast. Dry farther inland. Skies clear
out around sunrise west of i-95 and by late morning along the
coast. Mostly sunny all areas Wed aftn as much drier air filters
in on nnw low level flow and sfc high pressure building in from
the nw. Lagging CAA and sunshine should allow for highs in the
upper 50s north to the lower-mid 60s se. Mostly clear colder wed
night Thu am with lows in the mid 20s NW to the mid 30s se.

Gfs is more aggressive than the ecwmf NAM at allowing for deeper
moisture to linger and lift back N in the vicinity of the nc
coast for thanksgiving. Increased clouds a bit over SE va NE nc
but stayed with a dry forecast for now even in these areas.

Overall mostly sunny N to partly sunny s. Chilly for thanksgiving
day with high in the mid-upper 40s to lower 50s (genly going on
the cold side of mav met guidance due to shallow mixing as the
sfc high settles over northern 1 2 of the cwa). Partly cloudy
thu night and mostly sunny and turning a little milder Fri with
highs in the lower-mid 50s after lows mainly in the 30-35 f
range.

Long term Friday night through Monday
The next front pushes across the region sat. It will be
moisture starved as any support for pcpn stays north. Highs sat
in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Dry colder Sun and Mon as canadian
high pressure returns. Highs Sun upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Sun night
in the mid 20s-mid 30s. Highs Mon only in the low-mid 40s.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions to prevail today, and through tonight for the
most part even as clouds increase with bkn ovc CIGS expected.

Winds today will be from the ssw, with gusts to ~20 kt from
15z-21z at kric and ksby, genly 15 kt or less elsewhere. Potential
for periodic MVFR conditions (mainly east of i-95) late tonight from
06-12z Wed as a weak front passes through the region with low
pressure strengthening off the va nc coast. Otherwise, skies
gradually clear out Wed from W to E and winds shift to the nnw
at 10-15 kt with higher gusts.VFR dry wx expected Wed night-sat
as high pressure settles over the region. Some mid high cigs
possible Thu (mainly for SE va NE nc), but moisture and chances
for rain look to stay south of the local area.

Marine
High pressure over the area this morning will slide offshore by
midday and move further out to sea this afternoon. Expect winds to
remain s-sw 10 to 15 kt (15-20 kt over NRN coastal waters) thru
today. Seas 2 ft south and 2-4 ft north; waves 1-3 ft. A canadian
low pressure system will drag a cold front through the oh valley
late today, approaching the waters Wed morning. Also, low pressure
will develop off the SE coast tonight, then lifts NE just off the
mid atlc coast Wed morning into Wed aftn. Expect s-sw winds 5-15 kt
tonight to become wnw around daybreak wed. Winds then increase to 15-
25 kt all waters by late Wed morning afternoon (highest southern
coastal waters where gusts may reach 30 kt). Winds become N and
gradually diminish Wed night as cool high pressure builds into the
region. Scas will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the
marine area for Wed wed night. After coordination with neighboring
offices, plan to hold off on issuance of SCA this morning as start
time is still 3rd period. Seas expected to reach 5-7 ft; waves 3-4
ft on wed. Sub-sca conditions then expected thanksgiving day and
Friday with high pressure nearby.

Climate
Richmond had a high of 54 f yesterday nov 20th, this after
analysis of 5 min data.

Equipment
Kdox remains down. Parts are on order and expected to arrive
wed.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Lkb
marine... Jdm
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 12 mi35 min SW 14 G 18 47°F 1022.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 21 mi45 min SW 1 39°F 1024 hPa31°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi45 min S 19 G 21 1023.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 24 mi45 min SW 15 G 17 44°F 50°F1022 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 27 mi35 min SSW 18 G 21 47°F 1021.4 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 28 mi45 min SSW 13 G 16 46°F 1023.9 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 29 mi45 min SSW 7 G 9.9 43°F 54°F1023.1 hPa
44072 33 mi35 min SW 14 G 16 47°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 34 mi45 min SW 13 G 15
44041 - Jamestown, VA 35 mi35 min SSW 12 G 16
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 41 mi45 min SSW 5.1 G 7 45°F 48°F1023.4 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi45 min SSW 16 G 21 52°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 45 mi45 min SSW 14 G 19 48°F 45°F1022.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi45 min SW 13 G 17 46°F 53°F1021.3 hPa
CHBV2 47 mi45 min SSW 13 G 16 48°F 55°F1023 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 47 mi45 min S 12 G 14 45°F 1023.6 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi45 min SSW 11 G 13 44°F 1024.1 hPa
44064 49 mi35 min SSW 14 G 18 48°F 1024.1 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 49 mi45 min 54°F1024 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW9
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G32
SW18
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G28
SW19
G26

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA19 mi20 minS 510.00 miFair40°F31°F71%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW4W3W7W8W7W5W4SW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE4SE3SE3S5
1 day agoSW12
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2 days agoS3S5S6S4SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Orchard Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:50 AM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:07 PM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:31 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:55 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.41.31.10.70.40.20.10.20.50.91.21.51.71.61.41.10.80.40.20.20.30.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Urbanna
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:59 AM EST     1.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:22 PM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:05 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.31.31.10.80.50.20.10.10.40.71.11.41.61.61.41.10.80.40.20.10.20.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.