Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Urbanna, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:21PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:22 PM EST (23:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:52AMMoonset 7:49PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 340 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Through 7 pm..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw late. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..Variable winds less than 5 kt...becoming S 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 340 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure lingers over the waters through the weekend. A cold front is expected to approach the waters late Monday night or Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Urbanna, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 192009
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
309 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
Cold high pressure lingers across the deep south through
tonight... Before gradually sliding off the southeast coast
through the weekend. Light SW flow will result in dry conditions
through Monday. A cold front crosses the region late Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

Near term through tonight
Latest surface analysis places 1030mb high pressure centered
over the deep south gulf coast. Aloft, quasi-zonal flow now in
place over the eastern half of the conus, resulting in deep
layered w-sw flow aloft, and a mainly clear sky. Afternoon
temperatures averaging low to mid 50s this afternoon, slightly
cooler upper 40s around 50 where deeper snowpack is hanging on
across the i-85 corridor and NE nc.

Lows modify a bit more tonight, with early morning lows
settling into the upper 20s to around 30 for most, slightly
colder low to mid 20s where deeper snowpack exists over far sw
zones.

Short term Saturday through Monday
Surface high pressure will prevail through the weekend with
mostly clear sunny and dry conditions. The initial high will
slide off the southeast coast Saturday. A subtle trough slides
across the northeast Saturday night with a weak backdoor
boundary sliding across the ERN shore. High-res models
indicating potential for some developing low stratus patchy fog
possible toward morning across the piedmont. High pressure then
rebuilds across the mid-atlantic Sunday. Models a bit slower
with the upper trough through Tuesday... And thus expect a dry
day Monday, and into Monday night, as the upper trough lifts
across the great lakes. The airmass will continue to modify
through the period, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to near
60f inland piedmont, and in the low mid 50s for the ERN shore
and coastal SE va NE nc. Lows Saturday night will generally be
30-35f.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
A storm system tracking across the southern great lakes by Monday
will push its attendant cold front across the local area during
Tuesday. What remains to be seen is whether this occurs during the
morning or afternoon as there's about a 6-hr difference in timing
between the 12z operational GFS and ecmwf. The 12z GEFS tends to
side more with the ecmwf, and so am inclined to think the fropa
will be during the midday or afternoon hours at this time. Have
high chc to likely pops for most of the area during the 06z-18z
tue period, then pcpn moving out of the entire area by 00z wed.

The remainder of the week should be dry.

Lows Mon night mainly in the low mid 40s. Highs Tue in the low 50s
on the ERN shore to the 55-62 elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the low
mid 30s. Highs Wed in the mid 40s on the ERN shore to the upr 40s to
mid 50s elsewhere. Lows Wed night from the upr 20s n-nw to the
low mid 30s se. Highs ranging through the 40s on thu, then mid 40s
to mid 50s on fri.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure builds across the deep south through tonight
resulting in a SW wind AOB 10kt under a clear sky, withVFR
conditions to prevail through the 18z TAF period and beyond.

Outlook: surface high pressure gradually settles off the
southeast coast Saturday and Sunday with clear and dry
conditions continuing. High pressure slides farther offshore
Monday as a cold front approaches from the w. This cold front
crosses the region Monday night bringing a chc of showers. High
pressure returns later Tuesday.

Marine
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the marine area
through the weekend with sub-sca conditions continuing. Light s-sw
winds through this evening will increase to 10-15 kt overnight and
Saturday. Winds diminish again by late sat, becoming n-nw for a time
sat night and Sunday morning. S-sw around 10 kt then prevail again
by Monday. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-3 ft. A cold front approaches the
region from the west Monday night then crosses the water on Tuesday.

There are some timing issues that still need to be worked out
amongst the models with respect to whether the front passes first
thing in the morning or in the afternoon. Either way, expect sca
conditions to be possible Tuesday with the fropa.

Climate
Norfolk top five snow totals for the month of january
(2018 currently sits at #4)
14.2 1966
13.8 1955
13.7 1893
12.8 2018***
12.7 1940

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajz
marine... Ajb
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 18 mi52 min Calm 44°F 1019 hPa17°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 18 mi42 min S 5.8 G 5.8 36°F 1021.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 25 mi52 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 37°F 33°F1018 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi42 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 36°F 1017.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 30 mi52 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 35°F1017.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 30 mi52 min SW 6 G 8 42°F 1018.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 31 mi52 min SSE 7 G 8 1019 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 34 mi52 min ESE 8 G 8
44072 35 mi42 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 39°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 46 mi52 min SSE 8 G 8.9 35°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 47 mi52 min Calm G 1 40°F 35°F1018.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi52 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 36°F 35°F1017.6 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi52 min WSW 6 G 6 49°F 1018.7 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 49 mi52 min WSW 11 G 11 1018.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi52 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 33°F 33°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA13 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair39°F17°F42%1019 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA22 mi27 minSW 310.00 miFair45°F10°F24%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW5SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5W5W3S4SE4CalmSW5SW5
1 day agoN5N4NW7N9
G14
N6N8N9
G15
NW9
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N8NW9
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G14
CalmW5W5CalmNW4W7W7NW7W6W8SW5SW8SW6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N5N6N7N7
G17
N9
G15
N6N5NW6N4N4N7

Tide / Current Tables for Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Urbanna
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:51 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:13 PM EST     1.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:49 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:52 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.10.90.60.30.1-0.1-00.20.611.31.41.41.20.90.50.2-0-0.100.30.7

Tide / Current Tables for Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Orchard Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:39 AM EST     1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:55 PM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:38 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.10.90.50.20-00.10.40.81.11.41.51.41.20.80.50.2-0-00.10.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.