Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harborton, VA
May 19, 2024 2:12 AM EDT (06:12 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:36 PM Moonset 2:40 AM |
ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1258 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Rest of tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1258 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system pushes off the carolina coast overnight into Sunday, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
a low pressure system pushes off the carolina coast overnight into Sunday, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 190531 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 131 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers shift south of the region late tonight into Sunday.
Light rain or drizzle overnight will give way to a drier day Sunday, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day.
Dry weather and a clearing sky returns for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Cool and dreary overnight with overcast skies and spotty light rain or drizzle.
Latest analysis indicates a slow-moving frontal boundary draped just south of the local area this evening. To the north, 1024+mb cool high pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a positively tilted upper trough/low pressure over the mid-south with numerous weak spokes of shortwave energy overrunning the slow- moving front mainly just to our south. Steadier showers of earlier this evening have tapered to some spotty light rain and drizzle, with more organized showers from Bertie County south into east/SE NC.
Showers gradually diminish overnight over the far southern zones, with spotty light rain or drizzle over southern VA into NE NC. A mainly overcast sky overnight with occasional drizzle and some patchy fog developing. Early morning lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Mostly dry Sunday aside from a stray shower or two. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northwestern portions of the area.
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for north west portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). As such, temps in the NW counties may be up to 10 degrees warmer than locations at the coast. Highs in the W/NW look to reach at least the low 70s, while locations along the coast stay in the mid-60s. If clouds are quicker to clear out, could see temps reach the mid-upper 70s in the west, as some statistical guidance would suggest. Sunday looks more and more dry with latest high-res guidance. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two. Lows Sun night will be in the mid 50s.
High pressure will shift to the S on Monday as low pressure moves farther offshore. Additionally, a ridge builds in aloft. Onshore flow continues, though, which will limit temps closer to the coast to the upper 60s-around 70. Meanwhile, locations along and W of I-95 warm into the upper 70s. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 50s. Warmer still on Tues as the high shifts offshore, skies mostly clear out, and winds shift to the SE. Onshore flow will once again limit temps at the coast, but will be warmer that days previous. Highs at the coast will be in the low 70s. Inland, temps warm to around 80.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Warmer and mostly dry for the mid-week period
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return Thursday and Friday
The warming trend continues mid-week with southerly flow in place and the upper ridge overhead. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies continues Wed. Highs will be in the mid-80s for most and in upper 70s-low 80s immediately near the coast. Global models indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs.
This yields chance PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday.
With temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70 anticipated, went ahead and included thunder as well. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for afternoon storms Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected through at least the rest of this morning. Latest obs indicate that CIGs are low-end MVFR in the 1000-2000 ft range for most of the area, with IFR CIGs along the Atlantic coast and in NE NC. Patchy drizzle from RIC and points NE is also causing localized MVFR VSBY. CIGs should drop to IFR for all terminals over the next few hrs, though there may be occasional clearing that turns skies BKN- SCT. CIGs could also drop to LIFR, but confidence in this is lower and guidance has generally backed off on this. Patchy fog (2-4 SM VSBY) could develop W of I-95 through 12z. Gradual improvement is expected later today with slowly lifting CIGs and a slow clearing trend. All terminals should be MVFR by 16z/12 PM and improvement to VFR is possible in the later aftn inland.
MVFR continues along the coast for most of the period. Light NE winds expected at RIC and SBY this morning with 5-10 kt winds at PHF, ORF, and ECG. NNE winds ~10 kt expected this aftn.
Outlook: CIGs likely degrade back to MVFR of IFR Sunday night, potentially lingering along the coast Monday. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight.
Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered over ern NC while sfc high pressure was centered over New England. Winds were ENE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3 ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Low pressure will track east and off the NC coast tonight into Sun, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. Winds will become NE by tonight into Sun ranging from 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt S. Seas build to 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. Have added the other two coastal zns up to Chincoteague VA starting at 7 am Sun morning. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed, as weak low pressure lingers off the SE coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW, but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by Mon night/Tue, and then 2-3 ft by midweek.
A moderate risk for rip currents continues into this evening, with moderate for the northern beaches Sun and Mon, and high for the southern beaches, due to increasing NE flow and building seas.
HYDROLOGY
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Flood Warnings have been cancelled for Nottoway River near Stony Creek.
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 131 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers shift south of the region late tonight into Sunday.
Light rain or drizzle overnight will give way to a drier day Sunday, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day.
Dry weather and a clearing sky returns for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Cool and dreary overnight with overcast skies and spotty light rain or drizzle.
Latest analysis indicates a slow-moving frontal boundary draped just south of the local area this evening. To the north, 1024+mb cool high pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a positively tilted upper trough/low pressure over the mid-south with numerous weak spokes of shortwave energy overrunning the slow- moving front mainly just to our south. Steadier showers of earlier this evening have tapered to some spotty light rain and drizzle, with more organized showers from Bertie County south into east/SE NC.
Showers gradually diminish overnight over the far southern zones, with spotty light rain or drizzle over southern VA into NE NC. A mainly overcast sky overnight with occasional drizzle and some patchy fog developing. Early morning lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Mostly dry Sunday aside from a stray shower or two. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northwestern portions of the area.
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for north west portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). As such, temps in the NW counties may be up to 10 degrees warmer than locations at the coast. Highs in the W/NW look to reach at least the low 70s, while locations along the coast stay in the mid-60s. If clouds are quicker to clear out, could see temps reach the mid-upper 70s in the west, as some statistical guidance would suggest. Sunday looks more and more dry with latest high-res guidance. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two. Lows Sun night will be in the mid 50s.
High pressure will shift to the S on Monday as low pressure moves farther offshore. Additionally, a ridge builds in aloft. Onshore flow continues, though, which will limit temps closer to the coast to the upper 60s-around 70. Meanwhile, locations along and W of I-95 warm into the upper 70s. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 50s. Warmer still on Tues as the high shifts offshore, skies mostly clear out, and winds shift to the SE. Onshore flow will once again limit temps at the coast, but will be warmer that days previous. Highs at the coast will be in the low 70s. Inland, temps warm to around 80.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Warmer and mostly dry for the mid-week period
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return Thursday and Friday
The warming trend continues mid-week with southerly flow in place and the upper ridge overhead. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies continues Wed. Highs will be in the mid-80s for most and in upper 70s-low 80s immediately near the coast. Global models indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs.
This yields chance PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday.
With temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70 anticipated, went ahead and included thunder as well. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for afternoon storms Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected through at least the rest of this morning. Latest obs indicate that CIGs are low-end MVFR in the 1000-2000 ft range for most of the area, with IFR CIGs along the Atlantic coast and in NE NC. Patchy drizzle from RIC and points NE is also causing localized MVFR VSBY. CIGs should drop to IFR for all terminals over the next few hrs, though there may be occasional clearing that turns skies BKN- SCT. CIGs could also drop to LIFR, but confidence in this is lower and guidance has generally backed off on this. Patchy fog (2-4 SM VSBY) could develop W of I-95 through 12z. Gradual improvement is expected later today with slowly lifting CIGs and a slow clearing trend. All terminals should be MVFR by 16z/12 PM and improvement to VFR is possible in the later aftn inland.
MVFR continues along the coast for most of the period. Light NE winds expected at RIC and SBY this morning with 5-10 kt winds at PHF, ORF, and ECG. NNE winds ~10 kt expected this aftn.
Outlook: CIGs likely degrade back to MVFR of IFR Sunday night, potentially lingering along the coast Monday. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight.
Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered over ern NC while sfc high pressure was centered over New England. Winds were ENE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3 ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Low pressure will track east and off the NC coast tonight into Sun, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. Winds will become NE by tonight into Sun ranging from 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt S. Seas build to 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. Have added the other two coastal zns up to Chincoteague VA starting at 7 am Sun morning. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed, as weak low pressure lingers off the SE coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW, but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by Mon night/Tue, and then 2-3 ft by midweek.
A moderate risk for rip currents continues into this evening, with moderate for the northern beaches Sun and Mon, and high for the southern beaches, due to increasing NE flow and building seas.
HYDROLOGY
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...
Flood Warnings have been cancelled for Nottoway River near Stony Creek.
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 9 mi | 72 min | NE 11G | 57°F | 64°F | 29.93 | ||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 13 mi | 72 min | NE 8.9G | 29.98 | ||||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 23 mi | 60 min | ENE 12G | 60°F | 66°F | 2 ft | ||
| 44089 | 28 mi | 76 min | 57°F | 3 ft | ||||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 36 mi | 72 min | ENE 8G | 57°F | 65°F | 29.95 | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 37 mi | 60 min | ENE 9.7G | 60°F | 65°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44072 | 40 mi | 54 min | NNE 16G | 58°F | 2 ft | |||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 40 mi | 72 min | ENE 6G | 61°F | 67°F | 29.96 | ||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 40 mi | 72 min | WSW 1.9G | 61°F | 68°F | 29.95 | ||
| CHBV2 | 46 mi | 72 min | NE 13G | 58°F | 29.89 | |||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 46 mi | 72 min | NE 8G | 60°F | 67°F | 29.93 | ||
| 44087 | 47 mi | 46 min | 66°F | 2 ft | ||||
| 44064 | 48 mi | 54 min | NE 16G | 57°F | 65°F | 2 ft | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 49 mi | 72 min | 0G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA | 4 sm | 24 hrs | NE 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 29.92 | ||||
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 14 sm | 17 min | NE 10G14 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.93 |
Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:54 AM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:39 AM EDT 1.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:06 PM EDT 1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:54 AM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:39 AM EDT 1.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:06 PM EDT 1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.5 |
Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:11 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:00 AM EDT 1.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:19 PM EDT 0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:27 PM EDT 2.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:11 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:00 AM EDT 1.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:19 PM EDT 0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:27 PM EDT 2.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.9 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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