Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dyer, NV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:44PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 9:44 AM PST (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:10PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dyer, NV
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location: 37.67, -118     debug


Area Discussion for - Las Vegas, NV
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Fxus65 kvef 201650
afdvef
area forecast discussion
national weather service las vegas nv
850 am pst Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis A potent low pressure system will dive down from the
north through Thursday, brining cold air, gusty winds, significant
snows for some, and even low elevation snows for others.

Update Mid and high clouds are streaming in already this morning
ahead of our incoming winter storm set to impact the region tonight
and tomorrow. Webcams indicate snow already has begun falling near
ely and across white pine county, and this activity will spread into
lincoln county by late this morning.

Overall, the forecast remains on track, although after a cold
morning with clouds streaming in after sunrise, concerned that cold
air will be trapped in some of the valleys limiting the high
temperature by a few degrees. As such, i'll be shaving a couple
degrees from the temperature forecast for this afternoon. Will be
sifting over 12z model guidance this morning, but there remains a
wide range of possibilities for snow across the las vegas valley and
lower deserts of the mojave. Will likely maintain a conservative
approach, but locally heavy values will be possible where more
concentrated snow bands develop tonight into Thursday morning.

-outler-

Short term Through Friday.

Winter storm still remains on track, with few, relatively minor
adjustments. The weather maker currently on its way, digging down
into northern california nevada. The front edge of the trough will
continue digging south and clear southern nevada by this evening,
with the rest of the trough following suit, leading to a closed
low by Thursday morning. The low will sit overhead all of Thursday
into Friday before being kicked out of the region on Friday.

Precipitation chances still look to spread from north to south
later this afternoon and evening, with peak activity from Thursday
morning through Thursday afternoon. The best, heaviest activity
still looks to impact lincoln and mohave counties, with more
scattered showers or small segments of showers for the rest of the
region. This makes the forecast difficult, as resolving these
smaller features is nearly impossible, let alone where they will
end up.

Snow levels still look to fall to 2500'-3000', leading to most
places outside of the colorado river valley at least seeing snow
fall, if not accumulate. Lincoln and mohave counties as well as
the spring mountains and sheep range all have a shot at seeing a
foot or more on the higher elevations, with widespread 4-8 inches
even at the lower elevations in those locations. Just about every
regional highway will be impacted in some way. Snow levels remain
low enough for precipitation to fall in the morongo basin as snow,
with the GFS continuing to indicate a band roughly near along
sr-62. This added enough confidence to include them in the winter
weather advisory, as the area is likely to have the opportunity to
pick up a quick couple inches during this event.

The operational GFS has been the lowest member in its own
ensemble qpf, especially for las vegas. The past number of 00z
runs display this trend, with the ensemble mean about double the
operational value. Given the last event exceeded the operational
run, suspect our QPF grids might be a bit underdone again, but
this likely GOES back to the convective mode of the precipitation
and difficulty with pinpoint where showers and bands may set up.

The convection with this system looks to be stronger than that of
the previous system, with the colder air and additional moisture
leading to more instability, comparatively. The stronger
convection may have the added benefit of keeping snow levels from
rising much during the day on Thursday.

By Friday, the system exits the region to the east, with rising
heights and temps in its wake for the weekend.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday.

The medium range models indicate the weather pattern remains
progressive through the weekend and early next week with at least an
additional cold trough dropping over the great basin and brushing
southern nevada and northwest arizona. Impacts do not look to be
significant with mainly gusty northwest winds and some scattered
snow showers over the southern great basin zones. High temperatures
should manage to climb back into the 50s in las vegas but will
still be 5-8 degrees below normal early next week.

Aviation For mccarran... After a quiet morning, ceilings around
8000 feet will arrive about noon, along with south winds gusting to
20 knots. Clouds will lower further by late afternoon, with chances
for rain and snow beginning around sunset. Lower ceilings and
chances for precipitation will persist through Thursday night before
northwest winds bring in drier air Friday.

For the rest of southern nevada, northwest arizona and southeast
california... A cold storm system will bring chances for snow, with
rain limited to the lowest elevations, beginning in the sierra and
southern great basin this morning and spreading across the mojave
desert this afternoon and tonight. Widespread low ceilings and
terrain obscuration can be expected, with poor conditions persisting
through Thursday night. Strong westerly winds will also be a concern
today in the barstow and morongo basin areas.

Spotter information statement Another cold winter storm will
impact the region through Thursday. Spotters are encouraged to
report snow amounts and impacts to roads according to standard
operating procedures.

Short term... Steele
aviation... ..Morgan
long term... .Adair
for more forecast information... See us on our webpage:
http: weather.Gov lasvegas or follow us on facebook and twitter


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bishop, Bishop Airport, CA29 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds30°F19°F66%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from BIH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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2 days agoCalm5SW4CalmSW5CalmW5SW5NW5W4NW7N16
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G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Las Vegas, NV (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Joaquin Valley, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.