Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harborton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 7:10 AM EST (12:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 1666 feb 11 2016 wtau01.abrf..Txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 620 jan 30 2011 wtau02.abrf..Txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 2426 apr 28 2017 wtau03.adrm..Txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 1789 mar 18 2014 wtau04.adrm..Txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 1023 apr 30 2017 wtau05.aprf..Txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 1353 apr 30 2017 wtau06.aprf..Txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 346 oct 04 2012 wtaz61.lpmg..Txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 314 nov 18 01:39 wtbw20.vgdc..Txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 3894 oct 08 15:49 wtca41.tjsj.tcp.sp1.txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 2522 sep 22 21:32 wtca42.tjsj.tcp.sp2.txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 2992 oct 29 18:27 wtca43.tjsj.tcp.sp3.txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 2011 sep 26 12:17 wtca44.tjsj.tcp.sp4.txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 5361 sep 27 12:15 wtca45.tjsj.tcp.sp5.txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 3784 sep 21 03:52 wtca82.tjsj.hls.sju.txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 8080 sep 20 19:15 wtca82.tjsj.hls.spn.txt -rwxrwxr-x 1 ftp ftp 41382 sANZ600 636 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast today. Weak low pressure moves northeast along the coast tonight ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday morning. High pressure builds back into the area for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harborton, VA
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location: 37.67, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 210850
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
350 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure along the north carolina this morning will shift
farther offshore this afternoon. Weak low pressure develops
along the southeast coast tonight, and tracks northeast and off
the mid atlantic coast on Wednesday as a cold front pushes
through the local area. High pressure builds back into the
region Wednesday afternoon through Friday as low pressure
lingers from florida to south carolina.

Near term through tonight
Latest analysis indicating ~1025 mb sfc high pressure centered
over eastern nc, providing dry and cool conditions early this
morning. Strengthening SW flow aloft is allowing for increasing
high clouds to stream into the region out ahead of a sharpening
trough across the mid-ms valley. Temperatures are quite variable
early this morning due to mainly clear skies and winds that vary
from calm to SW at 5-10 mph. Areas with the mixing have
temperatures genly ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s, while
locations with no mixing are in the upper 20s to lower 30s for
the most part. After 12-13z, under mostly sunny skies and
increasing ssw low level flow should see a fairly rapid rise in
temperatures followed by a milder afternoon with highs ranging
from around 60 f N NW to the mid 60s se. Bufkit soundings and a
look a upstream GOES satellite imagery suggest the high clouds
will gradually thicken later today with some sct bkn cumulus
developing over the far SE where low level moisture will be
somewhat higher. Still too dry for any rain through 00z and
overall looks mostly sunny this morning then partly sunny for
the aftn.

A quick moving NRN stream wave lifts into the northeast wed
with the trailing cold front crossing the local area by 12z wed.

Meanwhile, a weak sfc low progged to lift n-ne along the mid-
atlantic coast wed. Where the models continue to differ is just
how far west any measurable pcpn gets. GFS is closer to the
coast with the NAM sref ECMWF favoring some light pcpn as far
west as the piedmont. Best lift progged east of i95 between 06z-
12z wed. Thus, expect a period of showers mainly along and east
of i-95 after midnight... Quickly shifting toward the coast
around 12z then offshore by 15z wed. Kept likely pops east of
i95 with chc pops to the west for now. Lows tues night in the
40s to lwr 50s se. Little QPF west of i95, .10 to .25 east.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
Given the spread in the models between the drier GFS and
slower wetter nam, have bumped pops up a bit along the coast
through 15z Wed morning to high chance (40-50%) with low-end
likely pops just off the coast. Dry farther inland. Skies clear
out around sunrise west of i-95 and by late morning along the
coast. Mostly sunny all areas Wed aftn as much drier air filters
in on nnw low level flow and sfc high pressure building in from
the nw. Lagging CAA and sunshine should allow for highs in the
upper 50s north to the lower-mid 60s se. Mostly clear colder wed
night Thu am with lows in the mid 20s NW to the mid 30s se.

Gfs is more aggressive than the ecwmf NAM at allowing for deeper
moisture to linger and lift back N in the vicinity of the nc
coast for thanksgiving. Increased clouds a bit over SE va NE nc
but stayed with a dry forecast for now even in these areas.

Overall mostly sunny N to partly sunny s. Chilly for thanksgiving
day with high in the mid-upper 40s to lower 50s (genly going on
the cold side of mav met guidance due to shallow mixing as the
sfc high settles over northern 1 2 of the cwa). Partly cloudy
thu night and mostly sunny and turning a little milder Fri with
highs in the lower-mid 50s after lows mainly in the 30-35 f
range.

Long term Friday night through Monday
The next front pushes across the region sat. It will be
moisture starved as any support for pcpn stays north. Highs sat
in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Dry colder Sun and Mon as canadian
high pressure returns. Highs Sun upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Sun night
in the mid 20s-mid 30s. Highs Mon only in the low-mid 40s.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions to prevail today, and through tonight for the
most part even as clouds increase with bkn ovc CIGS expected.

Winds today will be from the ssw, with gusts to ~20 kt from
15z-21z at kric and ksby, genly 15 kt or less elsewhere. Potential
for periodic MVFR conditions (mainly east of i-95) late tonight from
06-12z Wed as a weak front passes through the region with low
pressure strengthening off the va nc coast. Otherwise, skies
gradually clear out Wed from W to E and winds shift to the nnw
at 10-15 kt with higher gusts.VFR dry wx expected Wed night-sat
as high pressure settles over the region. Some mid high cigs
possible Thu (mainly for SE va NE nc), but moisture and chances
for rain look to stay south of the local area.

Marine
High pressure over the area this morning will slide offshore by
midday and move further out to sea this afternoon. Expect winds to
remain s-sw 10 to 15 kt (15-20 kt over NRN coastal waters) thru
today. Seas 2 ft south and 2-4 ft north; waves 1-3 ft. A canadian
low pressure system will drag a cold front through the oh valley
late today, approaching the waters Wed morning. Also, low pressure
will develop off the SE coast tonight, then lifts NE just off the
mid atlc coast Wed morning into Wed aftn. Expect s-sw winds 5-15 kt
tonight to become wnw around daybreak wed. Winds then increase to 15-
25 kt all waters by late Wed morning afternoon (highest southern
coastal waters where gusts may reach 30 kt). Winds become N and
gradually diminish Wed night as cool high pressure builds into the
region. Scas will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the
marine area for Wed wed night. After coordination with neighboring
offices, plan to hold off on issuance of SCA this morning as start
time is still 3rd period. Seas expected to reach 5-7 ft; waves 3-4
ft on wed. Sub-sca conditions then expected thanksgiving day and
Friday with high pressure nearby.

Climate
Richmond had a high of 54 f yesterday nov 20th, this after
analysis of 5 min data.

Equipment
Kdox remains down. Parts are on order and expected to arrive
wed.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Lkb
marine... Jdm
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 9 mi41 min SSW 6 G 8.9 45°F 48°F1023.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi41 min SSW 19 G 21 1023.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 24 mi31 min WSW 12 G 14 47°F 1023.2 hPa
44089 27 mi41 min 58°F4 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 36 mi41 min SSW 14 G 16 51°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 37 mi31 min SW 16 G 19 47°F 1021.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi41 min SW 15 G 18 44°F 49°F1022 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 40 mi41 min SSW 17 G 19 48°F 44°F1022.3 hPa
44072 40 mi31 min SW 12 G 14 47°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 40 mi41 min SW 14 G 16 47°F 1023.9 hPa
44096 45 mi50 min 55°F2 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 46 mi41 min SW 5.1 G 6 43°F 54°F1023.3 hPa
CHBV2 46 mi41 min SSW 9.9 G 14 48°F 55°F1022.7 hPa
44064 48 mi31 min SW 14 G 16 47°F 1023.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi47 min WSW 7 G 8.9

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA3 mi41 minS 510.00 miFair39°F35°F87%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:46 AM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:04 PM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.61.51.20.90.50.20.10.30.611.51.821.91.61.30.90.50.30.20.30.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:04 AM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:22 PM EST     2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:28 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.81.81.51.20.80.40.30.30.61.11.622.22.221.61.20.70.40.30.40.71

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.