Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:03 AM   Moonset 3:06 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1259 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning - .
Rest of tonight - E winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers and very light drizzle, then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. A chance of showers until late afternoon. Sat night - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Sun - SE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 1259 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
winds remain easterly and elevated behind a backdoor cold front through tonight. The front lifts back north late tonight into Sunday. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast Monday through Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 040544 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 144 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes south and west of the area tonight.
On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 910 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- On and off showers expected tonight through Saturday with the highest coverage inland.

- Becoming dreary for all areas Saturday with extensive low-level cloud cover.

Evening wx analysis shows that the backdoor cold front has just about crossed the FA (with a few obs in the s-central VA Piedmont showing mid 70s w/ mid 60s dew points. Scattered showers/tstms have developed near the front across our far SW zones. Meanwhile, a decent E-NE wind continues elsewhere (especially near the coast where there are areas of drizzle/fog...although VSBYs are mostly at or above 1SM attm). The front will settle to our SW overnight, but some elevated instability (based around 800-900mb) will overspread at least the western half of the FA overnight. Expect showers and potentially a tstm or two along/west of I-95 overnight, with no precipitation outside of drizzle near the coast. Patchy fog may also move onshore across SE VA and NE NC, but continue to think visibilities will not get too low given the elevated winds.
Overnight lows will be chillier than the previous few nights with upper 40s on the MD Eastern Shore and 50s for most of the rest of the area (lower 60s down along the Albemarle Sound).

The front will be well W/SW of the area by tonight into Saturday.
Sfc high pressure will be left in its wake across New England. This will wedge a cool/moist low-level airmass over the entire area for the day Saturday. This will also keep cloudy conditions in place.
The best forcing/lift and moisture remains across the W, so expecting the highest coverage Saturday mainly W of I-95. Despite this, it will tend to remain unpleasant even towards the coast w/ onshore flow and patchy drizzle. Continue to trend highs lower with temps struggling to reach 60 across the N, with mid 60s-low 70s elsewhere. There is a chance that far SW portions of the CWA (e.g., Northampton/Bertie Counties in NC) reach the upper 70s, but this may even be overdone. These values are still below NBM (especially S).
On and off "showery" rainfall continues overnight Saturday with lows in the 50s N to 60s S. QPF through tomorrow averages from up to 0.50" across the W, 0.1-0.4" central, and 0.00" to a few hundredths of an inch closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.

- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.

The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s and 80s and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.

Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE developing with rather weak shear.
Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 335 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle to end of next week.

We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak shortwaves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. These convective complexes may also move through the region from the NW, but these features are notoriously hard to predict. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7-7.5 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. Instability will certainly not be a limiting factor as temps warm into the 80s and 90s every day. At this time, the synoptic pattern for severe looks most favorable Thursday with an approaching trough and the most robust CAPE. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. We continue to have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become more active by the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Saturday...

Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 06z/04 TAF period as IFR to LIFR CIGs have already overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the night with perhaps some improvement on Sat (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, scattered showers have spread over western portions of the area, and Richmond will likely see brief periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle are also possible through Sat AM. Shower chances continue on Saturday (highest PoPs at RIC w/ lesser chances near the coast).

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
As of 710 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through Saturday night.

- Small Craft Advisories for the seas north of the Virginia/North Carolina border have been extended until 1 AM Saturday.

- Winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will diminish a bit later tonight into Saturday morning before increasing Saturday.

Winds behind the backdoor cold front remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening (lower across the NC coastal waters).
Winds diminish some overnight but should still gust to 20 kt through the night. Winds ramp back up Sat afternoon into Sat night with gusts to 25 kt. Winds become ESE late Sat night as a warm front lifts N. Waves remain 2-4 ft during this time.
Given the gusts to 20 kt between the two surges, have opted to extend SCAs through Sat night to account for both surges for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Additionally, with seas of 4-6 ft this evening N of the VA/NC border and persistent E flow, seas should be slow to subside to 4 ft tonight. As such, have extended SCAs for all coastal waters N of the VA/NC border until 1 AM Sat.

The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE.
SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 905 PM EDT Friday...

Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and stay just shy of minor flood stage overnight. Tidal anomalies continue to increase this weekend with minor to locally moderate flooding (at Bishops Head) possible across the middle and upper bay due prolonged onshore flow. Nuisance to minor flooding is possible up the James River as well Sat evening. Will likely need to upgrade the Coastal Flood Statement to a Coastal Flood Advisory across parts of the upper Bay for the Sat afternoon high tide. However, given that the upcoming high tide stays just below, will hold off for now.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ650-652-654-656.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:04 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:25 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:47 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dover AFB, DE,