Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Accomac, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:10PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 8:35 PM EST (01:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:32AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 643 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt this late evening and overnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds. Snow likely early this evening, then a chance of snow this late evening and early morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...mainly E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft... Building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
ANZ600 643 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks off the coast tonight. High pressure slowly builds over the waters Thursday into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Accomac, VA
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location: 37.7, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 172109
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
409 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will track northeast just off the mid
atlantic coast this evening into early Thursday morning. The
storm tracks east northeast out to sea Thursday while high
pressure builds in from the west. High pressure sliding from the
gulf coast states eastward to off the southeast coast will bring
dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area Thursday
night through Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Late this aftn, models water vapor imagery indicated upper
level low near the nc tn border, with strong mid level
vorticity vorticity advection pushing into cntrl nc. Latest akq
radar as of 330 pm showed snow was now covering just about all
of the CWA except the extrm NW NRN counties. So far, we have
received snow reports ranging fm near 1 inch over NRN portions
of the area to near 6 inches over scntrl va counties. Based on
the latest hrrr rap model trends, and anticipated upper level
shortwv energy vorticity advection and associated vertical
motion transfer to the mid atlc coast this evening tonight, have
extended the ending times of warnings advisories acrs the cwa.

The highest snow totals will occur over scntrl va into interior
ne nc and interior SE va. Still believe portions of extrm SE va
and coastal NE nc will have to be monitored closely this evening
into tonight for possible higher amts, as models hint at
enhanced frontogenetic forcing in this region. Expect 1 to 2
inches of snow before the pcpn moves off the coast very late
tonight, but could see localized accumulations approaching 3
inches, esply over NE nc. Have an advisory in this area until
3 am Thu morning.

Expect gradual clearing fm wnw to E overnight into Thu morning.

Cold with lows ranging fm the mid teens to lower 20s. So,
driving conditions will still remain slippery after pcpn ends
and temps dropping.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly Thu aftn with 850mb temps
-2 to -4c at 12z warming to +4-6c by 21z. A cold start to the
day, limited mixing, and mid-level WAA should result in rather
stable lapse rates and surface high temps should only reach the
upper 30s to arnd 40.

High pressure will then slide from the gulf coast states
eastward to off the SE coast Thu night thru sat, and bring dry
weather and moderating temperatures to the area. Lows Thu night
mainly in the lower to mid 20s. Highs on Fri will range fm the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Fri night will range fm the mid 20s
to around 30. Highs on Sat will range thru the 50s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Milder spell of wx through the extended forecast pd. Pattern evolving
fits transition of mjo through phase 4 toward phase 5... Leading to
aoa normal temperatures. Other than a very wk upper level system
tracking off SE CONUS coast sun... Sfc hi pres and upper level
ridging will be dominant Sun into mon. By late mon... Storm system
expected to track into the WRN great lakes... W its trailing
cold front approaching the mtns. That front will make progress
across the local area Mon night-early Tue W potential shras
(though 12z 17 ECMWF a tad slower than 12z 17 GFS attm).

Drying clearing out and a bit cooler (returning to near seasonal
levels) for Tue afternoon-wed.

Lows Sat night ranging through the 30s. Highs Sun in the l50s
on the ERN shore to 55-60f elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly
35-40f. Highs Mon in the m50s on the ERN shore to the u50s-l60s
elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the u30s to l40s. Highs Tue in the
l50s on the ERN shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Tue night in
the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Slow moving cold front is pushing through the region accompanied
by a broad area of light to moderate snow. Widespread MVFR ifr
conditions perists as the area of precipitation moves eastward.

Sby may experience a brief period of light snow but MVFR ifr
clouds will prevail through the afternoon and early evening. The
snow has not reached orf and ecg at 18z and is expected to start
anytime now at phf. Warmer temps will likely see precip start as
light ra at ecg later this afternoon before turning into snow.

Winds will generally be n-ne with gusts 15-25 kt through the
early evening.

Outlook:clearing tonight with a breezy N wind near the coast.

PredominateVFR after midnight then likely Thursday through
Sunday as the trough departs well to the NE and a ridge builds
across the region.

Marine
Sfc lo pres exits off the coast this eve... W continued low
level CAA into Thursday (morning) before waning. Nnw winds will
average 15 to 25 kt... Gusts to around 30 kts - ESP near the
lower ches bay and on the ocean waters. Will need to monitor for
at least low end gale gusts this eve-tonight as the lo pres
system exits... ESP on the lower ocean waters S of CAPE charles
va. Scas have been raised to most of the ERN va rivers (through
tonight)... Otherwise no big changes to other SCA headliness
attm. High pressure settles over the area for the end of the
week... Through the weekend allowing for diminishing winds and
sub-sca conditions.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for
ncz013-014-030.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for ncz012.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Thursday for ncz015>017-
031-032-102.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vaz048-
061-062-069-509-510.

Winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for
vaz084-086-089-090-093-096-523>525.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for vaz087-
088-092.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Thursday for vaz095-097-
098-100.

Winter weather advisory until 8 pm est this evening for vaz064-
075>078-081>083-085-511>522.

Winter storm warning until 8 pm est this evening for vaz060-
065>068-079-080.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Thursday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz635-636.

Small craft advisory until 11 am est Thursday for anz630>634-
638.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Tmg
short term... Tmg
long term... Alb
aviation... Jef
marine... Alb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 7 mi47 min 23°F 34°F1024.1 hPa
44089 17 mi35 min 37°F4 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 23 mi47 min 1025 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 34 mi35 min N 16 G 19 25°F 34°F2 ft1027.2 hPa (+0.0)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 41 mi47 min 35°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi47 min 26°F 31°F1025.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi35 min ESE 14 G 19 26°F 34°F1 ft1024.5 hPa (+0.0)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 48 mi47 min 24°F 1025.1 hPa
44072 48 mi35 min N 18 G 21 25°F 34°F3 ft
44096 48 mi44 min 37°F5 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 48 mi47 min 26°F 33°F1025.5 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi40 minNNW 12 G 190.75 miSnow24°F20°F88%1024.4 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA19 mi41 minNNW 1210.00 miOvercast26°F12°F57%1023.9 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3CalmNW3CalmCalmNW3NW6NW8
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1 day agoNW4NW3NW3NW4NW3N3NW6NW3N5NW8NW6NW5N4NW5NW3W5NW5NW5W3W6NW4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN4N4N4N5N6N8N8N7N7N5N6N5N3NW6N8NW6NW9NW11
G14
N5N7NW6CalmN3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Folly Creek, Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Folly Creek
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Wed -- 02:20 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:55 AM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:07 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:52 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.3-0.1-0.10.41.11.92.73.43.63.32.721.10.300.20.61.21.82.42.72.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Onancock
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:08 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:12 PM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:53 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:56 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.41.10.70.30-0.1-00.30.81.31.71.91.81.61.20.70.30-0.10.10.40.91.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.