Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pastoria, VA
May 4, 2024 10:18 PM EDT (02:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:02 AM Moonset 3:05 PM |
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 939 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 5 seconds.
Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of showers.
Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 2 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 939 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
winds remain easterly and elevated behind a backdoor cold front through tonight. The front lifts back north late tonight into Sunday. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast Monday through Wednesday.
winds remain easterly and elevated behind a backdoor cold front through tonight. The front lifts back north late tonight into Sunday. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast Monday through Wednesday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 050122 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 922 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Off and on showers are expected to continue through Sunday night.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 920 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Scattered to widespread showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are expected in most areas west of the Chesapeake Bay overnight.
-Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, but most areas will see 0.25-0.5" (with little to no rain near the Atlantic coast and on the eastern shore).
Evening wx analysis shows that the backdoor cold front that pushed to the south of the area yesterday is very slowly starting to move back to the north and is centered from north-central NC to Hampton Roads. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave is tracking ENE across wrn NC.
Locally, showers and isolated tstms are ongoing near and just to the north of that boundary across srn VA/NE NC, with showers and drizzle on the cool side from the RIC Metro to central VA Piedmont (where temps are in the mid 50s-60F). That boundary will gradually move back to the north tonight through Sun, while the shortwave in wrn NC will push ENE toward the region tonight. Widespread showers are expected to develop/move into most areas west of the bay overnight, with a slight chc of a tstm across southern portions of the FA.
Could see localized rainfall totals of 1"+, but areal average QPFs are 0.25-0.5", with little to no rain expected on the eastern shore and near the Atlantic coast. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s across the N, and in the lower to mid 60s in the S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.
- More humid Monday/Monday night with showers and storms areawide.
The front (as a warm front) will move ENE and north of the area Sun into Sun evening, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions. However, still expecting showers and some tstms to redevelop for later Sun morning into Sun evening (PoPs 30-70%). PoPs will diminish later Sun evening into Sun night. Highs on Sun will warm into the 70s across the region. Lows Sun night in the lower to mid 60s.
Upper heights begin building back N for Mon with high temps warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours. Combined with an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the aftn, then slide eastward into Mon evening/night. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid to upper 60s, so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows Mon night mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 410 PM EDT Saturday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-normal temps Tuesday through Friday.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over from Tue through Fri. A ridge aloft builds in by Tue aftn, then weakens slightly starting Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed aftn. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue, in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...
IFR CIGs still prevail at RIC/PHF this evening, with MVFR/VFR at SBY/ORF/ECG. The backdoor cold front that crossed the area yesterday will slowly lift back north as a warm front tonight into Sunday.
CIGs should improve to MVFR (with occasional periods of VFR) as winds become SE-SSE after the front moves north of a given terminal.
It looks like IFR CIGs likely hang on until late morning Sun at RIC, with improvement to MVFR possible at PHF by late tonight. In addition, showers will once again overspread RIC tonight (but most of this activity will likely remain west of the coastal terminals through the night). Showers are likely at all terminals on Sun, with isolated-scattered tstms possible during the aftn/evening.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night- Monday, due to an unsettled weather pattern. Sunday night should be mostly dry, but more tstms are possible Mon aftn-late Mon evening.
A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.
MARINE
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday morning.
1030mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf of Maine this aftn, with a stationary front in vicinity of the NC Outer Banks.
The wind is primarily E 10-15kt with guts up to 20kt, and somewhat less S of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the trough.
Seas are ~4ft, with 3-4ft seas in the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and 2- 3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay. The wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt across the Ches. Bay and lower James later this aftn through the early overnight hours, before shifting to SE and diminishing slightly later tonight. SCAs remain in effect for these zones. Seas are expected to remain ~4ft, with 3-4ft seas in the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and 2-3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay tonight.
The stationary front will lift back N as a warm front Sunday.
with the wind shifting to SE/SSE. A SSW wind returns for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).
Southerly flow should prevail through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 905 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Have extended a Coastal Flood Advisory for the northern Neck through Sunday night for widespread minor flooding.
- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning.
The pattern of an elevated E wind shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the Northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect in this area through Sunday night. A Coastal Flood Statement continues for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding through late tonight. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as a SSE wind will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next high tide cycle. It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 922 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Off and on showers are expected to continue through Sunday night.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 920 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Scattered to widespread showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are expected in most areas west of the Chesapeake Bay overnight.
-Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, but most areas will see 0.25-0.5" (with little to no rain near the Atlantic coast and on the eastern shore).
Evening wx analysis shows that the backdoor cold front that pushed to the south of the area yesterday is very slowly starting to move back to the north and is centered from north-central NC to Hampton Roads. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave is tracking ENE across wrn NC.
Locally, showers and isolated tstms are ongoing near and just to the north of that boundary across srn VA/NE NC, with showers and drizzle on the cool side from the RIC Metro to central VA Piedmont (where temps are in the mid 50s-60F). That boundary will gradually move back to the north tonight through Sun, while the shortwave in wrn NC will push ENE toward the region tonight. Widespread showers are expected to develop/move into most areas west of the bay overnight, with a slight chc of a tstm across southern portions of the FA.
Could see localized rainfall totals of 1"+, but areal average QPFs are 0.25-0.5", with little to no rain expected on the eastern shore and near the Atlantic coast. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s across the N, and in the lower to mid 60s in the S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.
- More humid Monday/Monday night with showers and storms areawide.
The front (as a warm front) will move ENE and north of the area Sun into Sun evening, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions. However, still expecting showers and some tstms to redevelop for later Sun morning into Sun evening (PoPs 30-70%). PoPs will diminish later Sun evening into Sun night. Highs on Sun will warm into the 70s across the region. Lows Sun night in the lower to mid 60s.
Upper heights begin building back N for Mon with high temps warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours. Combined with an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the aftn, then slide eastward into Mon evening/night. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid to upper 60s, so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows Mon night mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 410 PM EDT Saturday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-normal temps Tuesday through Friday.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over from Tue through Fri. A ridge aloft builds in by Tue aftn, then weakens slightly starting Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed aftn. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue, in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...
IFR CIGs still prevail at RIC/PHF this evening, with MVFR/VFR at SBY/ORF/ECG. The backdoor cold front that crossed the area yesterday will slowly lift back north as a warm front tonight into Sunday.
CIGs should improve to MVFR (with occasional periods of VFR) as winds become SE-SSE after the front moves north of a given terminal.
It looks like IFR CIGs likely hang on until late morning Sun at RIC, with improvement to MVFR possible at PHF by late tonight. In addition, showers will once again overspread RIC tonight (but most of this activity will likely remain west of the coastal terminals through the night). Showers are likely at all terminals on Sun, with isolated-scattered tstms possible during the aftn/evening.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night- Monday, due to an unsettled weather pattern. Sunday night should be mostly dry, but more tstms are possible Mon aftn-late Mon evening.
A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.
MARINE
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday morning.
1030mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf of Maine this aftn, with a stationary front in vicinity of the NC Outer Banks.
The wind is primarily E 10-15kt with guts up to 20kt, and somewhat less S of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the trough.
Seas are ~4ft, with 3-4ft seas in the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and 2- 3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay. The wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt across the Ches. Bay and lower James later this aftn through the early overnight hours, before shifting to SE and diminishing slightly later tonight. SCAs remain in effect for these zones. Seas are expected to remain ~4ft, with 3-4ft seas in the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and 2-3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay tonight.
The stationary front will lift back N as a warm front Sunday.
with the wind shifting to SE/SSE. A SSW wind returns for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).
Southerly flow should prevail through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 905 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Have extended a Coastal Flood Advisory for the northern Neck through Sunday night for widespread minor flooding.
- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning.
The pattern of an elevated E wind shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the Northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect in this area through Sunday night. A Coastal Flood Statement continues for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding through late tonight. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as a SSE wind will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next high tide cycle. It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 9 mi | 49 min | E 9.9G | 57°F | 62°F | 30.20 | ||
| 44089 | 13 mi | 23 min | 54°F | 4 ft | ||||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 26 mi | 49 min | E 15G | 30.22 | ||||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 38 mi | 31 min | E 12G | 58°F | 63°F | 2 ft | ||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 43 mi | 49 min | E 14G | 57°F | 63°F | 30.22 | ||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 44 mi | 49 min | E 11G | 58°F | 62°F | 30.20 | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 46 mi | 31 min | E 16G | 56°F | 63°F | 3 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA | 11 sm | 43 min | E 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 30.21 | ||||
| KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA | 17 sm | 18 min | E 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 54°F | 94% | 30.24 | |
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 24 sm | 3 min | E 15G22 | 10 sm | Overcast | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 30.21 |
Metompkin Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:02 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT 3.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:46 AM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 06:14 PM EDT 4.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:02 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT 3.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:46 AM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 06:14 PM EDT 4.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Metompkin Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 2.7 |
| 4 am |
| 3.4 |
| 5 am |
| 3.9 |
| 6 am |
| 3.9 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:02 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT 4.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:37 AM EDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:48 PM EDT 4.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:02 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT 4.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:37 AM EDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:48 PM EDT 4.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.3 |
| 3 am |
| 3.2 |
| 4 am |
| 3.9 |
| 5 am |
| 4.3 |
| 6 am |
| 4.1 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| -0 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Dover AFB, DE,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE