Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pastoria, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:44PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:48 AM EDT (04:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:19AMMoonset 8:38PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1227 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Rest of tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Scattered showers in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft...building to 5 to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft... Building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
ANZ600 1227 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will push across the coast late this afternoon and evening. High pressure will gradually build into the region from the northwest Thursday afternoon into Saturday as the cold front stalls off the carolina coast resulting in persistent onshore flow.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pastoria, VA
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location: 37.71, -75.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240222
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1022 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front drops south of the area tonight, stalling along the
southeast coast. Strong high pressure builds into the northeast
Thursday and Friday, and remains centered over the northeast
through early next week. Low pressure lifts offshore Monday
into Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Forecast updated to lower pops and temps for the overnight as
the rain has come to an end over most areas, and some clearing
has allowed temps to fall a fair bit.

Previous discussion...

latest surface analysis places the cold front over northeast
north carolina. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
have developed along and just behind the frontal boundary. A
warm, humid, and unstable air mass exists across southeast
virginia and northeast north carolina ahead of the area of
showers and thunderstorms. Rap SPC analysis indicates mixed-
layer CAPE values of 1500-2500 j kg, where temperatures are
still in the mid to upper 80's with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70's. Shear remains marginal, around 25-30 knots, which is
enough for at least some organization and stronger storms. Main
threat remains locally damaging winds. Another concern will be
along the coast as the front slows and better upper level
support arrives. Impressive omega along the front with
precipitable waters in excess of 2 inches and mbe vectors at or
below 10 knots will result in locally heavy rainfall. Flash
flood guidance across the southeast is around 2-3 inches, but
given the overall progressive nature of the system, do not
anticipate widespread impacts from flooding. Headlines are not
anticipated.

Flow becomes north to northeast behind the front, as drier air
starts to spread into the area from the northwest later this
afternoon into tonight. Guidance indicates some linger moisture
over the piedmont into central virginia behind the front as
another area of convergence could result in additional showers
into this evening. Have increased cloud cover inland late today
through this evening and lingered chance pops inland through the
evening hours. Showers thunderstorms diminish along the coast
through the evening as instability wanes and the shortwave
pushes offshore. Low tonight generally in the low to mid 60's
northwest to low 70's southeast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday night
Potent shortwave digs over the great lakes into the ohio valley
Thursday as the old cold front settles along the southeast
coast. Height falls ahead of the shortwave will induce waves of
low pressure along the front, keeping low chance pops across
southeast virginia and northeast north carolina. North to
northeast flow will keep sky conditions generally mostly cloudy
along the coast to partly cloudy inland. Cooler and less humid,
with highs in the low to mid 80's. Trough axis slides north of
the region Thursday night, along with the deepest moisture and
best chances for measurable precip. Have trended toward warmer
guidance Thursday night due to likelihood of cloud cover. Lows
in the low to mid 60's. Upper 60's near the coast.

Onshore flow persists Friday, as model soundings indicate
lingering low level moisture. Perturbations in the fast west to
northwest flow along with convergence near the coast will result
in a slight chance pop Friday afternoon. Some modest instability
is indicated, but will keep only shower wording due to stable
onshore flow. Sky again averages partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Highs in the low 80's. Partly cloudy to cloudy Friday night as
high pressure builds north of the region. Lows generally in the
low to mid 60's. Some locales in the piedmont forecast to drop
into the upper 50's.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure builds from the great lakes across the
saint lawrence valley and into new england Friday through Sunday
bringing mild and mainly dry conditions. Highs Friday through Sunday
will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the upper
50s to low 60s, and mid upper 60s at the coast. Low pressure
(potentially tropical) eventually develops along a stalled frontal
boundary off the carolina coast early next week. This could
potentially bring some moisture into the region in the Monday-
Wednesday timeframe, but pops are only 20-30% at this time. Expect a
modestly strong ene wind along the coast with strong high pressure n
of the region and developing low pressure off the carolina coast.

High temperatures Monday through Wednesday remain in the upper 70s
to low 80s, with lows ranging through the 60s.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
A cold front continues to push through the region and is along
the va nc border at 00z. Scattered showers still linger along
and ahead of the front as well as behind the surface boundary.

Ceiling and visibilities are mostlyVFR across the region
although some tempo MVFR conditions will occur with any
precipitation. Most of the tstms have now moved well south into
nc. The front with linger along the coast tonight, with
chances for showers along the coast. MVFR ceilings are possible
across southern virginia and northeast north carolina tonight
for a brief period but overall expect generallyVFR conditions
with ceilings ~3500 to 5000 ft. Wind becomes north to northeast
behind the front, generally at or below 10 knots.

High pressure builds in from the northwest on Thursday as the
front stalls along the southeast coast. An uptick in northeast
winds is anticipated Thursday morning with a surge of cold
advection, but winds diminish mid to late morning. Flow also
results in broken to overcast skies near the coast Thursday with
lingering chances for showers across the far southeast.

High pressure slowly builds north of the region through
Saturday, with periods of clouds due to onshore flow. Winds
remain northeast.

Marine
A cold front will push across the mid-atlantic coast late
this aftn and evening bringing numerous showers tstms. The wind will
generally become NE 10 to 15kt behind the front. However, some
locally stronger wind is expected along with and in the wake of
tstms. Later tonight, high pressure will build in from the nnw and
this will result in a shallow CAA surge late tonight into Thursday
morning, which should produce a ~6hr period of low-end sca
conditions in the bay lower james. Expect a NE wind to increase to
15-20kt in these locations. The duration of the wind is not expected
to be long enough to build seas to 5ft in the ocean. SCA flags have
been raised for the bay lower james for late tonight into Thursday
morning. The wind should diminish and remain NE later Thursday aftn
into Friday as high pressure builds into the region. Seas should
subside from 3-4ft to 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the bay.

Onshore (ene) flow should continue through the weekend as strong
high pressure builds N of the region across new england. The wind
should remain elevated Saturday, 10-15kt 15-20kt ocean, and then
increase more significantly Sunday into Monday as low pressure
develops along a stalled frontal boundary to our S and then
gradually lifts nwd. The wind increases to 15-20kt 20-25kt ocean
(potentially 25-30kt S of CAPE charles). Seas initially build to 3-
5ft Saturday, then 5-7ft Sunday, and potentially 6-10ft by Monday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Thursday for anz632-634.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 1 pm edt Thursday for anz638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Thursday for anz630-631.

Synopsis... Sam tmg
near term... Mas sam
short term... Lkb sam
long term... Ajz
aviation... Sam jef
marine... Ajz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 9 mi48 min N 4.1 G 7 74°F 82°F1011.9 hPa (+1.1)
44089 13 mi48 min 78°F2 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi48 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 1012.5 hPa (+1.0)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 38 mi38 min E 9.7 G 12 77°F 1 ft1012.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 43 mi48 min NNE 6 G 9.9 76°F 81°F1012.4 hPa (+1.1)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 44 mi48 min NE 5.1 G 8 82°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi38 min NE 9.7 G 12 78°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA11 mi53 minNE 310.00 miOvercast72°F67°F86%1012.2 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA17 mi54 minN 510.00 miOvercast72°F68°F87%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3SE4S5SE6S7S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Metompkin Inlet
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Thu -- 04:43 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:08 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.82.81.70.6-0.2-0.30.21.12.23.244.34.13.22.21.10.3-0.10.31.12.23.13.84.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
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Thu -- 04:27 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:43 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:54 PM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.92.91.70.5-0.2-0.20.41.42.53.64.34.43.831.90.8-0-0.20.31.12.23.44.34.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.