Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pastoria, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 11:58 PM EST (04:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:49AMMoonset 9:58PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 938 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Overnight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of rain late this evening, then a slight chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming E 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds, building to 9 to 11 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late in the evening, then becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 12 ft, subsiding to 8 to 10 ft late. Rain.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ600 938 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Strong northwesterly winds will persist through Wednesday in the wake of a cold front. Another low pressure system is forecast to impact the region late this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pastoria, VA
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location: 37.71, -75.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 140353
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1053 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
A cold front continues to move well off the coast tonight.

High pressure briefly builds over the northeast states
Wednesday. Another complex area of low pressure affects the
region on Thursday. High pressure and dry conditions will
prevail Friday into the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 1045 pm est Tuesday...

last of the -ra winding down across E and SE portions of the fa
in the next few hours. Otherwise... Mostly cloudy though cigs
continue to lift and there may be partial clearing after
midnight... ESP N and nw. Lows in the l30s N and NW to the l40s
se.

On wed, 1034mb high pressure builds N of the region with much
drier low level airmass building south into the CWA (sfc dew pts
into the 20s to lower 30s). This will keep any pcpn from a
developing SRN stream system south of the local area. There will
still be a lot of mid high cloud cover however at least over the
central and south. Cool but dry with highs mainly in the mid-
upr 40s.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
As of 355 pm est Tuesday...

deep upper low moves ene from the lower ms valley through the tn
valley on thu. At the sfc, local area will be wedged in between
strong sfc high pressure (1035mb+) shifting east into new
england and sfc low pressure riding NE into the southern
appalachians with a new sfc low developing along the coastal
carolinas. Latest nam GFS are into better agreement with timing
of the arrival of precip into the region late Wed night early
thu morning. Still looking like there will the potential for a
mix of sleet and possibly some freezing rain in the piedmont
primarily from fvx to lku during the 09-15z time period thu
morning. Not looking cold enough with low level thicknesses
marginal (~1290 m) and sfc dew pts rising into the upper
20s around 30 f from 06-12z. While freezing rain sleet is
expected, the impacts are not likely to be significant due to a
very warm ground and at this time only an elevated light glaze
(if that) is anticipated. Elsewhere, a cold rain overspreads
the area with periods of mdt to locally hvy rainfall thurs into
early thurs evening then tapering off after midnight. This will
another 1-2 inch QPF event could lead to additional minor
flooding river issues. Lows Wed night from lwr 30s N NW to
lwr 40s se. Another in-situ wedge coastal front temp setup
thurs with highs only 35-40 f NW to low-mid 60s se. Lows thurs
night mid 30s NW to near 50 se. Dry and milder but breezy on fri
with highs ranging from the lower 50s NW to around 60 f se.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 310 pm est Tuesday...

relatively quiet wx pattern (w temperatures averaging a few
degs f blo normal) setting up for the local area in the extended
period. Sfc hi pres will build into the region from the SW fri
night into Sat then weaken sun. A weak cold front will approach
from the NW late sun... Then cross the fa late Sun night-mon.

Will carry pops about 20% W the frontal passage... ESP ern
portions. NW flow aloft will bring a return to dry but
breezy cooler wx by Tue as hi pres builds towards the region.

Lows Fri night in the l30s W to the l40s along the coast in se
va-ne nc. Highs Sat in the l-m50s... Except u50s far se. Lows sat
night in the l-m30s W to the l40s at the coast. Highs Sun in the
l-m50s... Except u50s in SE va-ne nc. Lows Sun night in the
m-u30s... W l-m40s at the coast. Highs Mon in the
l-m50s... Except u50s in SE va-ne nc. Highs Tue from the u40s n
to the l50s s.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 710 pm est Tuesday...

cigs generallyVFR and AOA 5 kft ATTM W patchy -ra continuing.

The -ra is expected to wind down over the next few hours and
cigs will continue to rise and evening give way to at least
partial clearing... ESP invof ric sby. Winds have shifted to nnw
and will be a bit gusty near the coast into the overnight
hours... Then become NE late tonight-wed at 10-15 kt (a little
higher at korf kecg).VFR conditions expected Wed aftn evening.

Another low pressure system is likely to impact the area late
wed night through Thu thu night, bringing a return to ifr MVFR
flight restrictions (periods of moderate to heavy rain expected
on thu). A rather strong E NE wind can also be expected near the
coast on thu. Drier air returns Fri but a gusty W NW wind will
prevail. Dry Sat with diminishing winds.

Marine
As of 345 pm est Tuesday...

nw winds are increasing again late this afternoon and evening as
cold air is surging south behind a cold front. Expect winds in
the 15 to 25 knots range this evening and overnight. Seas have
remained elevated all day and will persist around 3 to 4 ft in
the bay and 5 to 8 ft off the coast.

Winds diminish somewhat during the day Wednesday as high
pressure builds in, though SCA conditions for seas likely
continue over the coastal waters and the break in the strong
wind will be short lived. The next strong low pressure system
approaches from the south late Wednesday into Thursday. This
system looks to rapidly intensify as of moves along the nc
coast. This will bring possible gale conditions in the SE flow
to all of the coastal waters and at least the lower bay
Thursday. Models are in good agreement in regards to the wind
and wind probabilities of 35 kt or stronger are over 50 percent.

There will be a brief lull in the winds some time late Thursday
as the storm center moves along the va coast, but NW winds
increase again to 25 to 30 kt behind the low as it moves away
from the coast Friday. Winds do not look to significantly
decrease until late Friday night and Saturday.

Headline wise, small craft advisories remain in effect for the
bay with a gale watch also in effect for the lower bay for
Thursday. Small craft advisories remain in effect for the
coastal waters through Wednesday with a gale watch in effect for
Thursday.

Hydrology
As of 1045 pm est Tuesday...

have added a flood warning to the appomattox river at farmville.

A flood warning remains in effect for the meherrin river at
lawrenceville, and for the boydton- allen creek in mecklenburg
county. See flwakq flsakq for site specific details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
for anz632>634-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for anz632>634-
656-658.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Thursday for anz630-631.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Wednesday for anz638.

Gale watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for anz650-652-
654.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Alb
short term... Lkb mpr
long term... Alb
aviation... Alb lkb
marine... Ajb jao
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 9 mi40 min N 2.9 G 8.9 48°F 54°F1023.2 hPa
44089 13 mi28 min 61°F4 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi40 min NNW 22 G 26 1023.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 38 mi38 min N 14 G 18 49°F 1024.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 43 mi40 min NW 8.9 G 13 47°F 50°F1024.2 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 44 mi46 min N 8.9 G 12 58°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi38 min NNW 12 G 16 47°F 1023.8 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA11 mi63 minNNW 7 G 1410.00 miOvercast48°F38°F68%1023.4 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA17 mi2.1 hrsWNW 710.00 miOvercast49°F37°F66%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3N3CalmNE4NE3E3E3SE5E4E5E6E5E4NE3NE5E6E6E4E4SE5
2 days agoN7N5N8N7N7N6N4N4N8N5NE5E3CalmNW3N3W5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Metompkin Inlet
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Tue -- 12:00 AM EST     3.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:24 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:14 PM EST     3.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:13 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.92.31.610.70.81.11.82.533.43.63.52.92.11.30.80.50.611.62.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia
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Wachapreague
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:43 AM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:21 PM EST     4.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:39 PM EST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.83.42.61.81.20.80.81.222.83.43.94.34.23.62.82.11.510.91.32.12.73.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.