Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Onancock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:50PM Saturday February 23, 2019 9:33 AM EST (14:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:41PMMoonset 9:26AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 700 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight, then becoming S late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less in the evening.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 700 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides by north of the region today, as a frontal lingers over the southeast states. The front will lift back north as a warm front tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front will then cross the region late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. High pressure builds in from the west late Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Onancock, VA
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location: 37.72, -75.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231135
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
635 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the southeastern
states today, as high pressure builds eastward from the great
lakes into new england. The front will lift back north as a warm
front later Saturday night into Sunday morning. A cold front
will cross the region Sunday.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am est Saturday...

unsettled weather pattern will continue today with plentiful
moisture streaming into the area from the south and west. This
moisture will interact with a stalled frontal boundary to warrant
likely to categorical pops across the south and southwest this
morning, spreading northeast through the course of the day. Early
morning surface analysis shows a transient 1032mb high pressure to
our north which is supplying a feed of low level cool dry air.

Precip falling into this dry air and widespread clouds are acting to
reinforce the near surface stable layer, especially across the north
and northwest. Surface low pressure will deepen over the central
conus today in response to a digging shortwave trough aloft. This
low will move northeastward into the midwest by tonight. Increasing
southerly flow ahead of this feature will allow a surface warm front
to begin making northward progress across the area late this evening
and into the overnight hours. General trend in model guidance has
tended to slow the warm frontal progression this evening with low
level cad wedge slow to scour out. High temperatures today will
barely top the 40 degree mark across the piedmont with mid 40s
across expected near and east of i-95. Low to mid 50s are possible
across far southeast va and northeast nc as the warm front moves
northward late in the period. Overnight lows tonight will not be
terribly different than daytime highs with upper 30s across the nw
ranging into the low 50s across the se.

Rainfall totals today will range from 0.5-0.75" across the south up
to 1-1.25" over the northern half of the area. River flood warnings
continue for the james, nottoway, and meherrin rivers due to this
extended period of precip. See the hydro section below for further
details.

Short term Sunday through Monday
As of 400 am est Saturday...

the warm front should make significant northward progress by Sunday
morning with increasing temperatures and dewpoints. A cold front
trailing southward from parent low pressure over the great lakes
will approach the area Sunday morning and cross the region into
Sunday afternoon. Chance for showers will remain in place until the
front comes through. Thermal profiles across far SE va and NE nc
would support a rumble or two of thunder as the front crosses these
areas. Westerly downsloping winds in the wake of the front will lead
to clearing skies, deep mixing, and warm temperatures Sunday
afternoon. Winds could gust into the 30-35mph range on Sunday.

High temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and low 70s
before drier cooler air arrives Sunday night. Overnight lows
range from the mid 30s NW to low 40s se. Highs on Monday will
rebound into the upper 40s and low mid 50s under clear skies.

Calming winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall
into the low to mid 30s for Monday night.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 345 pm est Friday...

generally dry conditions thru thurs as canadian high pressure
tracks across the northern states. Models show a coastal trof
dvlpng wed. GFS wetter than ECMWF so kept slght chc shwrs along
the coast wed. Models differ Fri with the GFS quickly returning
moisture on an incrg ssw flow while the ECMWF holds off pcpn
until Fri night with a low tracking NE along the coast. Will
carry chc rain fri, increasing pops a bit Fri night.

Highs each day mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Lows in the 30s
to near 40 se.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 630 am est Saturday...

unsettled pattern will continue through the 23.12z TAF period.

Widespread light to moderate rain is expected today at all
terminals, mostly across the south this morning but spreading
northward this afternoon. Cig visibility will gradually lower
through the period as a warm front attempts to make northward
progress late. CIGS become MVFR by mid morning and ifr lifr into
the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will generally remain
out the northeast through the period but will become
southeasterly at orf, phf, and ecg as the warm front makes
northward progress tonight.

Outlook... A cold front will push acrs the area and offshore
sun, with conditions improving toVFR fm west to east behind
the front. Southwest winds will become west and gusty Sun aftn.

Marine
As of 330 am est Saturday...

strong sfc high pressure centered north of the area will move
east off the northern mid-atlantic southern new england coast
this aftn, before pushing well offshore tonight early Sunday.

Meanwhile, a sfc trough of low pressure extends east across the
southern states and ene off the SE coast. While conditions are
fairly benign over the marine area early this morning, a much
more active period is expected over the next few days. Seas avg only
2 ft north to 3-4 ft south and bay waves are mostly 1 foot or
less. We will see some increase in winds later this morning into
the aftn as the sfc trough deepens a bit off the carolina coast.

The models generally keep sub-sca conditions in place this
aftn evening but will need to monitor the potential for low-end
sca conditions over the mouth of the bay and coastal waters s
of CAPE charles. The boundary continues to lift N later
tonight, with winds ramping down a bit, then shifting to the sse
to ssw overnight early Sunday morning.

With the approach of a cold front from the west on Sunday and a
significant tightening of the pressure gradient, expect sca
conditions to develop over all zones by late morning or aftn (sw
winds sustained to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt). As this
is 3rd period, did not raise any SCA headlines yet. The front is
expected to move across the region late Sun aftn into sun
evening, with a brief surge of potentially higher winds
possible in the immediate wake of the front with pressure rises
of 7-9 mb 6hr for the period ending Sun evening. A gale watch
has been issued for the coastal waters N of parramore island for
sun night through Mon where a prolonged period of W to NW winds
gusting to ~40 kt is expected. For the remainder of the area,
opted against a gale watch given only the brief period of
potentially higher winds with the front late Sat aftn evening.

The offshore flow will keep seas from building much above 5-6
ft. For mon, a gradual diminishing of the winds seas is
expected, with the strongest winds over the northern coastal
waters. By Monday night, high pressure is building into the
area and with the cold advection weakening, should see
conditions relaxing below SCA levels. This area of high
pressure will slowly track across the region through the mid
week time period with generally benign conditions expected
through midweek.

Hydrology
As of 900 pm est Friday...

flood warnings cont portions of the james, nottoway and meherrin
rivers thru the weekend. See flsakq for details.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches could see some locations
climb at least into action stage if not reaching minor flood at
locations like farmville. The amount of rain will be key as the
soil across the region remains saturated lead to much of the
rain running off not soaking in.

Climate
As of 330 am est Saturday...

very warm temperatures are expected on Sunday but record highs
are currently not forecast. For reference they are listed below:
* site: record high for Sun 2 24
* ric: 82 (1985)
* orf: 82 (2012)
* sby: 77 (2012)
* ecg: 79 (1985)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
anz650-652.

Synopsis... Tmg rhr
near term... Rhr
short term... Rhr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Rhr
marine... Lkb
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 8 mi39 min E 8 G 9.9 43°F 44°F1029.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 19 mi39 min ENE 5.1 G 6 1031.3 hPa
44089 22 mi33 min 42°F2 ft
44042 - Potomac, MD 38 mi33 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 39°F 40°F1031.8 hPa (+1.4)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi39 min NE 5.1 G 8 41°F 42°F1031.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 40 mi39 min ENE 5.1 G 11 43°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi39 min E 8 G 8.9 41°F 41°F1030.9 hPa
44072 45 mi33 min 41°F 42°F1 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 45 mi39 min ENE 12 G 13 42°F 1030.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi38 minE 67.00 miLight Rain43°F38°F83%1030.5 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA21 mi39 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast45°F35°F68%1031.1 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmN3N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----CalmCalmCalmNE3NE4E4E5E6NE5E6E5
1 day agoNW7NW6W5NW3NW3NW6CalmNW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6NW4CalmCalmNE4N3NE3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Onancock
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Sat -- 02:37 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:12 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:00 PM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.6221.81.40.80.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.10.71.31.81.91.81.40.90.4-0.1-0.3-0.3-0

Tide / Current Tables for Folly Creek, Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Folly Creek
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Sat -- 05:20 AM EST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:41 AM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:44 PM EST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.7320.90-0.5-0.40.31.22.233.53.63.12.21.20.3-0.3-0.5-0.10.81.72.63.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.