Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 2:05 AM   Moonset 12:40 PM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 319 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Through 7 am - S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Mon night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.

ANZ600 319 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure briefly builds in today. A backdoor cold front drops into the region Friday from the northeast.

FXUS61 KAKQ 020720 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 320 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and very warm conditions are expected today as high pressure builds over the region. A backdoor cold front pushes inland on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 145 AM EDT Thursday...

Cooler early this morning with lows dropping into the 50s to the lower 60s Areas of shallow ground fog are expected to form across the eastern shore, Hampton Roads/NE NC. Additional more patchy fog is possible in and south of the RIC metro/Tri-cities area early this morning. Overnight lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Dry and very warm weather is expected today as the upper ridge builds back over the Eastern US. After some early morning fog, skies become mostly sunny with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to around 90 for inland locations (potentially lower 90s in a few typically warmer spots). Closer to the coast, highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s as an onshore wind develops. Mild/dry tonight with lows around 60s (mid to upper 50s Eastern Shore).

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure builds SSE over New England on Friday, which will push a backdoor cold front south along the Eastern Shore/Chesapeake Bay. Meanwhile, our next area of low pressure takes shape and begins to approach from the W. As a result of the backdoor front, temperatures will vary widely from only the mid 60s to lower 70s (perhaps only around 60F/lower 60s Maryland Atlantic beaches) across the MD/VA Eastern Shore and locations along the Chesapeake Bay to the mid to upper 80s further inland.
High temperatures will ultimately depend on how far/how quick the front pushes inland with guidance still all over the place, but could certainly see highs trend cooler (especially east).
Otherwise, increasing cloud cover by Friday afternoon and evening with the system approaching from the west. Rain chances increase across western portions of the forecast area late Friday evening into Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night range from around 50F NE to around 60F SW.

On Saturday, the combination of the lingering backdoor boundary from Friday and the approaching system from the west will lead to a cool, cloudy, and unsettled day. Not expecting a washout on Saturday by any means, but scattered showers and potentially a few thunderstorms (especially across the western half of the area) will be possible. High temperatures will range from the 60s over across the NE to the mid to upper 70s further SSW. Rain chances increase further Saturday night, with likely PoPs overspreading the western half of the forecast area. Total QPF Saturday-Saturday night will range from ~0.25" to 0.75" along and west of I-95 and ~0.25" or less further east. Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s for much of the area (50s across the VA/MD Eastern Shore).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

The front slowly moves/lingers across the are on Sunday leading to continued unsettled weather. Sunday will have the best chances for showers and storms areawide. Highs Sunday will generally be in the 70s. Increasingly warmer Monday and Tuesday, but there will be continued chances for mainly aftn/early evening showers or tstms, due to a boundary lingering near or just north of the forecast area. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday.
Outside of the slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm (mainly north), drier conditions are anticipated for Wednesday.
Very warm, especially if we can stay rain free, as the ridge builds over the SE US. Highs may approach 90 degrees across inland portions of the area.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 145 AM Thursday...

The main focus of the 06z TAF period will be the potential for patchy/shallow fog early this morning, with the greatest coverage across far SE VA into NE NC. IFR VSBYs remain in the forecast for ORF and ECG, with slightly less confidence for IFR VSBYs at PHF and SBY. Latest models have backed off on the fog further to the NW, with RIC primarily staying VFR (cannot rule out some patchy MVFR fog ~10-12z). Due to the shallow nature of the moisture, combined with an early May sun angle, the fog should rapidly burn off by an hour or two after sunrise. The remainder of the forecast period will feature mostly clear/sunny skies and VFR conditions. Winds become SSW 5-10 knots this afternoon.

Outlook: Primarily dry/VFR conditions are expected tonight through Friday, although some sub-VFR conditions are possible once again along the coast early Friday as another backdoor cold front slides through the area. There is chance for showers and a few tstms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from late Friday night through Sunday with the next front, with diminishing shower/tstm chances by Monday.

MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected today and tonight across all local waters

- Increased NE winds expected behind and cold front Friday evening into Saturday. SCAs possible in the lower Ches Bay/lower James.

High pressure has temporarily built in over the region, leading to light southerly winds of 5kt or less. Today, southerly winds gradually increase from N to S into the evening, but stay sub-SCA at 10-15kt. A backdoor cold front gradually drops across the region early Friday morning. Behind the front, winds turn to the NE and increase to 15-20kt in the Bay and coastal waters and 10-15kt in the rivers. Given the potential for gusts of 20-25kt in the lower bay, SCAs may be needed starting Friday afternoon. Breezy onshore winds continue through the weekend with winds becoming more southeasterly by Sunday. Winds diminish to 5-10kt and turn SSW for the early week period.

Latest buoy obs indicate seas around 2ft. Waves are 1ft or less. As winds increase behind the backdoor front tomorrow, seas will increase to 3-4ft and waves to 2-3ft. Seas fall back to 2-3ft early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Onancock
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Thu -- 01:15 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:05 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Folly Creek
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Thu -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:49 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:24 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:34 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:49 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Folly Creek, Metompkin Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet

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