Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:03 AM   Moonset 3:06 PM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 105 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning - .
This afternoon - E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers early. Tonight - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Sun - SE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 105 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
winds remain easterly and elevated behind a backdoor cold front through tonight. The front lifts back north late tonight into Sunday. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast Monday through Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 041848 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 248 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
On and off shower chances are expected this afternoon into Sunday night. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1015 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

-Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area this afternoon with extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered showers.

Early this morning, a backdoor front was located south and west of the CWA While, high pressure over New England was wedging cool, moist air into the Mid Atlc. With the front projected to stay south and west of the area this aftn, expect cloudy and dreary conditions across the area. Latest radar showed sctd showers over wrn and NE portions of the region. Chances for showers will continue through this aftn. But, with the best forcing/lift and moisture remaining to the W, the highest coverage will continue to be over the piedmont. Minimal thunder is expected this aftn, but could have a few rumbles in SW counties this evening. Easterly winds will become breezy E of I-95, esply near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph. Highs will be cool across far northern portions of the FA. Highs will struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions will likely see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have a slight SE component, allowing for warmer temps in the lower to mid 70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of the FA will likely be sharp. So, expect most will see cooler highs in the 60s.

Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly increasing temps late tonight/early Sun. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s across the N, and in the lower to mid 60s in the S.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.

- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.

The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s (and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.

Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above- normal temps.

-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.

An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e.
cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid- level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the 80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue at the TAF sites from this aftn into Sun aftn, as LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs will prevail, along with occasional showers (isolated thunder). There may be MVFR or VFR CIGs at ECG through the period, but the other TAF sites will mainly have IFR or MVFR CIGs . NE or E winds 6-12 kt this aftn, will become SE or S tonight into Sun aftn.

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times into Mon, due to an unsettled weather pattern. Sctd showers and tstms are expected at all TAF sites Sun aftn through Mon. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

MARINE
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday morning.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from Parramore Island S to the VA/NC for lingering seas to 5 ft.

With yesterday's backdoor cold front now well S of the local area, winds have generally dropped off to 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt early this morning. However, winds are expected to increase a bit later today through tonight as low pressure lifts NE into the Great Lakes with the sfc high sliding off the coast of northern New England into Atlantic Canada. Will keep the SCAs going for the Bay/lower James for E winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. On the ocean, have extended SCAs through 10 am for now for the zones between Parramore Island and the VA- NC border. This is where seas are still ~5ft, with 3-4 ft seas elsewhere. Depending on the increase in winds later today, these headlines may need an extension.

The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE.
SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 440 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Upgraded the northern Neck to a Coastal Flood Advisory through Sunday for widespread minor flooding.

- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning.

Tidal departures early this morning average around +1.5 ft across the Bay and tidal rivers. A strong flood tidal current Fri aftn/evening has led to increasing departures into the mid/upper Bay. The pattern of elevated E winds shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect in this area for the next 3 high tides through Sunday aftn (an extension through Monday morning will likely be needed). Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as SSE winds will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles (this may need to be extended as well). It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.

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Onancock
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:26 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:57 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:56 PM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Watts Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:29 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:33 AM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:50 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:03 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Watts Island, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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