Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southside Chesconessex, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 7:01 AM EST (12:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 3:45AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 351 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
Through 7 am..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 ft late.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the late morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ600 351 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the coast later today. High pressure returns Wednesday, with another cold front crossing the region Wednesday night. Strong high pressure builds into the northeast and mid atlantic states Thursday into Thursday night. The high moves farther off to the northeast on Friday as the next system approaches from the southwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southside Chesconessex, VA
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location: 37.72, -75.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200904
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
404 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the mid atlantic today. Weak high
pressure builds across the area from the west tonight into
Wednesday, before another strong cold front passes through the area
later Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure builds across the area
for thanksgiving day into Friday. A low pressure system then impacts
the region Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

current goes-16 WV imagery depicts a broad trough across
much of the central and ERN conus. A the surface, a weak area of low
pressure is centered over SE pa SRN nj NRN de, with a cold front
trailing back to the wsw into the appalachians. Stratus overspreads
the ERN shore, SE va, and NE nc early this morning, with sct-bkn ac
farther inland. Temperatures are milder early this morning ranging
from the mid 40s to mid 50s as the local area is within the warm
sector. The cold front will push into the NW half of the area later
this morning, and then push off the coast later this aftn. Mixing
with the front will help boost high temperatures into the upper 50s
to low 60s despite falling 850mb temperatures. Mostly cloudy to
overcast this morning with a slight chc of showers across the ern
third of the area, and then becoming partly cloudy variably cloudy
by this aftn. The wind will become NW behind the front with
occasional gusts to ~20mph.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

high pressure builds in from the wnw tonight, with the
surface ridge axis dropping S of the local area by Wednesday.

Cooler drier air filters into the area tonight, with low
temperatures dropping to around 30f low 30s from the piedmont to the
md ERN shore, with mid upper 30s farther SE under a clear sky. The
low-level flow becomes wsw Wednesday with high temperatures rising
to around 50f over the ERN shore, to the low mid 50s farther inland.

A strong cold front moves through Wednesday night, with canadian
high pressure building across the mid-atlantic thanksgiving day.

This cold front will be dry, however there will be an appreciable
change in temperatures on thanksgiving as the coldest airmass of the
fall season arrives. The latest eps GEFS guidance support daytime
highs only in the mid-upper 30s north (low 30s md ERN shore) and
lower-mid 40s farther s. In fact, temperatures will struggle to rise
too much Thursday despite a mostly sunny sky (although a bay
streamer is possible) given the strong cold advection and a blustery
n wind. These temperatures are some 20-25 degrees below seasonal
averages for this time of year, however not unprecedented for nov
23. See climate section for further details.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

very cold Thursday night with the surface ridge axis over the
area leading to clear calm conditions. At this time, record lows
are not in jeopardy (but close at ric and sby), however temps
will still be very cold for this time of year generally in the
mid upper teens far N NW to upper 20s se. Friday will be sunny
and a little warmer than Thursday, but still highs only in the
low mid 40s N NW to the upper 40s around 50f se. Next southern
stream system moves out of the deep south Friday night and
impacts the area Sat aftn into Saturday night as it moves over
the middle atlantic. Cold dry air will initially be slow to
retreat over the piedmont, and therefore, pcpn could begin as a
mix of ra pl over the NW piedmont if it begins early enough.

Otherwise, very good agreement in timing and area of precip
between the GFS and ecmwf. Expect rain to develop by Saturday
afternoon and continue through Saturday evening as the low
passes across the area. Will therefore go with likely pops
across the entire region during this time. Some differences in
model solutions on Sunday and Monday with the GFS being more
progressive with the next system yielding a chance for showers
later Sunday into Sun night, while the gem and the ECMWF are
more amplified with the plains trough and associated frontal
system leading to a dry Sunday with chances for rain on Monday.

For now, will go with the gem ECMWF solution and keep the
forecast dry on Sunday with the better chances for rain next
Monday.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be closer to normal with upper
50s lower 60s. Slightly cooler on Monday, but still mid 50s-
around 60.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 110 am est Tuesday...

stratus has expanded and overspread much of the area as of 06z.

Cigs are primarily 200-500ft with vsby ranging from 2-5sm. Vsby
is generally expected to remain 2-5sm overnight. However, sby
and ecg have the potential to drop to 1 2-1sm. An upper level
trough will bring some 6-10kft mid-clouds and there is general
consensus amongst the guidance that the stratus at ric will
scatter between 08-10z. Sby phf orf ecg are expected to remain
lifr ifr through ~13z, before improving. There is a minimal chc
of showers later this morning as the upper disturbance moves
across the area. A cold front then pushes through the area
during the aftn with the wind becoming NW and potentially
gusting to 15-20kt at sby ric. High pressure builds in from the
nw tonight, with the wind becoming light, and the sky becoming
clear.

High pressure slides offshore Wednesday ahead of another cold
front, which drops across the region late Wednesday night into
thanksgiving morning. The wind will become N and potentially
gust to ~20kt along the coast. High pressure builds across the
region Thursday night into Friday. A low pressure system crosses
the area Saturday bringing the potential for rain and degraded
flight conditions.

Marine
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

w SW winds of 10-15 kt prevail early this morning out ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west. The front will move through
the area early this aftn, shifting winds to the nw. Cold advection
and pressure rises in the wake of the front are not overly
impressive, but should see winds increase to 15-20 kt over northern
sections later this aftn and probably another few kt by early
evening. Will continue with SCA headlines for the bay north of new
pt comfort and also added the coastal waters north of parramore
island for expected gusts to ~25 kt and seas building to around
5 ft at the outer edges of the 20 nm zone by this evening.

The winds and waves seas should subside diminish below sca
thresholds by early Wed morning as weak high pressure briefly builds
over the waters. A strong cold front is expected to cross the area
wed night, with strong sfc high pressure building south into the
region for thanksgiving day. The pressure gradient is not excessive,
but cold advection is impressive for this time of year with deep
mixing over the relatively warm waters likely. Thus, went a few kt
stronger than guidance and anticipate strong SCA conditions for much
of the area (probably enough that all zones may need headlines).

Seas build to 5-7 ft and bay waves to ~ 4 ft. Conditions briefly
improve for fri, then winds ramp up again with the next system
sat.

Hydrology
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for mattoax on the
appomattox, sebrell on the nottoway, and an areal flood warning
is in effect for the mattaponi at beulahville. See flsakq or
flwakq for more site-specific information

Climate
***record low maximum temps for nov 22***
ric... 36 (1929)
orf... 39 (2008)
sby... 36 (1989)
ecg... 41 (1972)
***record low temperatures for nov 23**
ric... 20 (2008)
orf... 23 (2008)
sby... 15 (2008)
ecg... 19 (1937)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Wednesday for anz650-652.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Wednesday for anz630-631.

Synopsis... Ajz mrd
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz mrd
long term... Ajz mrd
aviation... Ajz
marine... Lkb
hydrology... Akq
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi32 min W 2.9 G 8 52°F 51°F1012.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 17 mi32 min SW 8 G 8.9 1013.3 hPa
44089 25 mi32 min 56°F3 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi32 min W 9.7 G 12 53°F 1013.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi32 min W 7.8 G 7.8 51°F 1011.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi32 min WSW 5.1 G 5.1 51°F 49°F1012.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 39 mi32 min WSW 11 G 13 54°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi32 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 50°F 49°F1012.6 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi32 min WSW 8.9 G 11 53°F 1013.3 hPa
44072 43 mi32 min WSW 7.8 G 12 53°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi38 min W 2.9 G 4.1
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi32 min SW 8.9 G 12 54°F 55°F1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi67 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F51°F96%1012.2 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA24 mi68 minWSW 56.00 miFog/Mist51°F48°F89%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S3S7SW3SW6SW4S3S4SE3S4S4S6S6S4S6SW5SW3SW5SW5SW5SW6SW5SW6SW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE3E6SE6SE5E3SE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalm
2 days agoN4N6N6N7N9
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N6NW5NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Onancock
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Tue -- 03:27 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:44 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:28 AM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:07 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:44 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.40.20.20.50.91.41.8221.81.51.10.70.40.20.30.61.11.51.81.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Watts Island, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Watts Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:20 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:45 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:35 AM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:00 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:51 PM EST     1.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.30.20.20.40.81.21.61.81.81.71.310.60.30.20.30.611.31.61.71.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.