Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:30PM Friday June 23, 2017 10:02 AM EDT (14:02 UTC) Moonrise 4:24AMMoonset 7:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 959 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Saturday morning...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely late this morning, then scattered showers with isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft late. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 kt...diminishing to 5 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming W late. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of shower and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 959 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Bermuda high pressure will be located off the southeast coast through Saturday. The remnants of cindy will pass across the region Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front pushes across the coast Saturday night. Another cold front pushes across the region Monday night with high pressure returning through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231220
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
820 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast today as
a surface cold front approaches the region from the northwest.

The remnants of tropical depression cindy will cross the region
with the cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls farther
south off the carolinas Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Update:
quick update to account for radar trends. Increased pop
to account for sct showers across NE nc as lobe of vorticity
skirts across north-central to northeastern nc. Once this wave
moves out, expect a brief lull for late morning with iso to
widely sct showers and t-storms this afternoon across far
northern tier of the area. Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and
humid with highs in the 80s to near 90.

Previous discussion...

rain showers are finally moving into the region with a slug of
subtropical moisture shortwave energy that previously ejected
off of TD cindy around the time it made landfall in tx la.

Satellite trends show the moisture losing its oomph as it gets
sheared apart by slightly stronger westerly winds aloft early
this morning. Lack of instability at the surface or aloft is
hampering any thunder potential as well. Have therefore removed
thunder and maintained light rain shower wording through this
morning's forecast. For this afternoon, daytime heating aloft
should result in enough elevated instability for thunderstorms
to develop. With pwats roughly between 1.50-1.75 inches (about
150 percent of normal), moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible. Meanwhile, a weak deformation axis is expected to
cross NRN va and could provide a better focus for heavier
rainfall primarily north of the richmond metro area into the md
lower eastern shore. In addition, localized minor flooding may
be possible in low lying, poor drainage, and other flood prone
areas that receive heavy rainfall in a short period of time.

Given the moisture-rich subtropical environment present, it will
be difficult to nail down exactly which locations could be
impacted by heavy rainfall today. Therefore, have highlighted
the potential across the entire forecast area within the hwo.

Otherwise, warm and muggy today under mostly cloudy skies. Highs
generally in the upper 80s inland mid 80s beaches. Dewpoints in
the lower 70s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
Precipitation wanes this evening with a possible break
altogether overnight prior to the arrival of a cold front. The
front extends from a low in SE canada and is expected to drag
the remnants of TD cindy across the mid atlantic region with it.

The front will supply enough lift for thunderstorm development,
and an incoming theta-e ridge axis will be a good source for
instability as well. Therefore, showers and storms will arrive
with the front Saturday morning with best precip chances during
this timeframe. After which, models are in fair agreement with
shearing the precip apart Saturday afternoon. This will greatly
reduce any major threats from heavy rain (including localized
minor flooding potential), however locally heavy downpours will
still be possible in this very moist, subtropical environment.

Meanwhile, an upper trough over the midwest will slowly dig
southward and help to slowly, but steadily, push the front
eastward through the area... Especially as the bermuda high also
retreats to the east. Warm and muggy yet again with highs
generally in the upper 80s (lower 90s possible far SE va NE nc
prior to arrival of cold front). Dewpoints in the lower 70s.

The front hangs up a bit Saturday night along the SE va NE nc
coast with rain chances slowly tapering off from NW to se
overnight. Should be able to maintain thunderstorms through the
evening... Shifting along south of albemarle sound overnight.

Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the
front. Lows Saturday night in the low-mid 60s far nw, upper 60s
inland, lower 70s se. Dewpoints lower 60s NW to lower 70s se.

Overall, a pleasant day anticipated for Sunday. Lingering
showers INVOF albemarle sound will come to and end with the rest
of the area being dry. Highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s beaches),
and dewpoints in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s se. Comfortable
sleeping weather Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s NW to
upper 60s se.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Cold front pushes offshore Saturday night, stalling along the
coast Sunday. Height falls ahead of a deepening upper level
trough over the great lakes ohio valley Sunday and remnant
moisture along the boundary will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across northeast north carolina Sunday
afternoon. Drying inland. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 80's. A
secondary front pushes into the region Sunday night and Monday.

Have only kept slight chance pops inland Monday given limited
moisture. Highs in the low to mid 80's. Potent shortwave digs
into the ohio valley and central appalachians Monday night into
Tuesday with a stronger cold front pushing through the region
Tuesday. Moisture return along the coast will result in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern virginia.

Cooler Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70's. Dewpoints
mix into the 50's, resulting in pleasant afternoon conditions.

Dry and comfortable conditions forecast again Wednesday as the
trough pushes offshore and heights build over the ohio valley.

Surface high pressure settles over the mid-atlantic. Highs
Wednesday generally in the low 80's. Cool Thursday morning, with
lows in the upper 50's inland to mid 60's near the coast. High
pressure slides offshore Thursday with return flow resulting in
moderating temperatures. Highs in the mid 80's.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Light rain showers will continue to impact all TAF sites through the
morning hours, with the potential for MVFR conditions in any heavier
showers. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this
afternoon, with the highest coverage anticipated over northern
portions of the region. PrimarilyVFR this afternoon, but periods of
sub-vfr visibilities will be possible in heavier rain showers. It
will be difficult to pinpoint which TAF sites experience sub-vfr
conditions and when due to the scattered nature of the precipitation
this afternoon. Winds will also be gusty out of the SW this
afternoon, occasionally gusting in excess of 25 knots. Precipitation
tapers off through the evening and a break may even occur before the
arrival of a cold front between 24 0900-1200z.

Outlook: a cold front will the slowly cross the region on Saturday,
bringing the remnants of TD cindy with it. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with the front, once again bringing
the potential for sub-vfr conditions on Saturday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms redevelop Saturday afternoon and evening, coming
to an end early Sunday. A return toVFR conditions is expected
Sunday through early next week as high pressure builds into the
region.

Marine
High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast early
this morning as the remnant low that was formerly cindy is
centered over ar as of 07z. High pressure will prevail off the
southeast coast through Saturday. Meanwhile, the remnant low of
cindy tracks through the tennessee valley today and tonight, and
then across the NRN mid-atlantic Saturday. Additionally, a cold
front will push into the ERN great lakes today into tonight.

This combined with the approach of the remnant low will result
in a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening low-level
jet tonight through midday Saturday. A SW wind will average
10-15kt early today and then increase to 15-25kt across the nrn
bay NRN ocean zones this aftn, followed by a lull early this
evening. Given this, scas north of new point comfort and
parramore island will commence at 17z. A SW wind will then
increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt possible in the ocean bay)
across the entire marine area later this evening through the
overnight hours and through midday Saturday. Scas for the
remainder of the area begin at 02z Saturday. Seas build to 5-7ft
north of parramore island late tonight into Saturday morning,
with 4-6ft out near 20nm north of CAPE charles, and primarily
3-4ft farther south with an offshore component to the wind.

Waves in the bay build to 3-4ft late tonight into Saturday
morning. SCA conditions end Saturday as the wind diminishes and
seas gradually subside. A cold front pushes across the coast
Saturday night with a wind shift to nw. Sub SCA conditions are
expected due to a lack of caa, another cold front pushes across
the coast Monday night, with high pressure building over the
region through the middle of next week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt
Saturday for anz635>637-656-658.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm edt
Saturday for anz632>634-638-654.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 pm edt
Saturday for anz630-631.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
Saturday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd mam
short term... Bmd
long term... Sam
aviation... Ajb bmd
marine... Ajz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi32 min SW 9.7 G 12 76°F 1013.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi44 min S 14 G 16 1014.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi44 min SW 13 G 19 76°F 78°F1012.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi32 min SW 14 G 18 76°F 1011.7 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi92 min Calm 74°F 1015 hPa73°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi44 min WSW 6 G 11
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi44 min SW 14 G 16 77°F 1014.1 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 7 76°F 77°F1014.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi44 min SW 8 G 11 76°F 77°F1013.8 hPa
44072 37 mi32 min SW 12 G 16 77°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi44 min SSW 14 G 19 76°F 79°F1012.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi44 min SW 12 G 16 75°F 76°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 6 76°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 44 mi32 min SSW 9.7 G 12 76°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi44 min SSW 13 G 16 74°F 1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi67 minS 410.00 miOvercast75°F72°F93%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW3SW4S3S3S3S4SW4S3S4S4CalmCalmS4S3SW6SW4SW3CalmCalmSW6S6S6SW6S5

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:44 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:43 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.20.80.50.1-0.1-0.2-00.30.60.91.11.210.80.40.1-0.1-0.2-00.30.71.11.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:14 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:02 PM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:14 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.210.60.3-0-0.1-0.10.10.40.811.110.80.60.2-0-0.2-0.10.10.50.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.