Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:04PM Thursday September 21, 2017 3:34 PM EDT (19:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 7:11PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 232 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Through 7 pm..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt...becoming se late in the evening, then becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..Variable winds less than 5 kt...becoming nw 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 kt early in the evening... Becoming light and variable, then becoming nw 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 232 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the weekend while tropical cyclone jose meanders south of the new england coast. SWells from distant hurricane maria will begin to impact the local area waters by this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211904
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
304 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain centered northwest of the area through the
weekend while tropical cyclone jose lingers off the new england
coast. Hurricane maria is expected to track between the bahamas
and bermuda early next week.

Near term through tonight
High pressure is centered over the ohio valley this afternoon,
providing dry and warm conditions with limited cloud cover.

Scattered thunderstorms have bubbled up just to our south
across east-central nc this afternoon along a weak
convergence sea breeze boundary. Given a steering flow from the
ne limiting convection to our ssw, and agreement from the
latest hi-res guidance, it will be hard to see more than a stray
pop-up TSTM across our interior NE nc counties west of the
chowan river. Have limited slight chc pops (~20%) in that area
through 00z. Otherwise, mainly clear and warm this evening, with
temps falling back into the 60s to near 70 tonight.

Short term Friday through Sunday
High pressure will remain centered to the n-nw of the local area
through the weekend. Sky conditions will be no worse than partly
to mostly sunny. Continued warm and dry with highs generally in
the low mid 80s, except mid upr 70s at the beaches. Lows in the
60s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
High pressure remains strong invof ERN great lakes and interior
ne CONUS late in the weekend into Mon before weakening
thereafter. Meanwhile... A much weakened remnant circulation (of
jose) slowly circulates sse of new england. Other than periodic
clouds... ESP at the coast by over the weekend-mon due to light
onshore flow... Expecting dry mainly warm. Lows Sun night mainly
in the m-u60s. Highs Mon in the u70s-around 80f at the
coast... M80s inland.

Wx conditions tue-wed remain dependent on track of tropical
cyclone maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of jose)
would bring increasing winds pops... Esp ERN portions of fa... More
to the E would result in drier-continued warm wx. For now... Generally
going W partly cloudy W low pops (e portions). Monitor forecasts
from TPC on maria through the weekend. Dry warm wx expected thu.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
GenerallyVFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as
high pressure influences our weather pattern. N winds 5-10 kt will
become light and variable by tonight.

Outlook: generallyVFR dry conditions are anticipated through the
weekend period as high pressure builds into the region.

Marine
Tropical storm jose located SE of CAPE cod early this afternoon
is forecast to slowly back to the wsw through Sunday. Meanwhile,
hurricane maria is located N of the dominican republic and is
forecast to track to the nnw through Sat and then nne through
mon Tue about equidistant from the carolina coast and bermuda.

Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-6ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall
below 5 ft at times next couple days. However... The SCA for
hazardous seas will continue and will be extended to 22z Sat as
the ene swell continues. Swell arrives from maria most likely
beginning late in the weekend. Scas for seas will likely be
needed through sun. The bulk of the forecast guidance keeps
maria offshore during the early to middle portions of next week.

Monitor the TPC forecast for the official forecast track of
maria through the weekend. A further increase in seas is
expected mon-wed along with an increasing N wind tues-wed.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures continue to fall today, with tidal departures
generally averaging less than 1.5 ft above normal tide. This has
allowed all of our sites to stay below flood stage during
today's high tide, with the exception of lewisetta, bishops head
and bayford, which may go one more high tide cycle late this
afternoon into this evening with minor flooding. As such, will
cancel expire all of the coastal flood advisories with the
exception of the central bay. Water levels should remain
elevated all all sites throught the weekend, but given that the
swell is not as large as what it has been, they should stay just
below flood after tomorrow. Will need to watch for additional
flooding next week, especially in the bay, as the swell from
maria moves into the area.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues today and possibly tomorrow as swell nearshore
waves will be slow to subside.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for vaz075-
077-078-084>086.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt
Saturday for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Ajb jdm
long term... Alb
aviation... Jdm
marine... Ajz alb
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi34 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 78°F 77°F1 ft1016.6 hPa (-0.7)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi46 min N 4.1 G 5.1 1016.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi46 min E 5.1 G 7 80°F 76°F1016.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 79°F 78°F1015.7 hPa (-0.6)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi64 min N 1.9 85°F 1017 hPa69°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi46 min NW 8 G 8
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi46 min E 6 G 7 78°F 1016.7 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi46 min ESE 4.1 G 6 80°F 78°F1016.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi46 min E 8 G 8.9 78°F 76°F1015.7 hPa
44072 37 mi34 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 77°F 78°F1 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi46 min W 8.9 G 11 78°F 78°F1016.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi52 min NNW 7 G 8.9 81°F 77°F1016 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi46 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 75°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 44 mi34 min NNE 3.9 G 7.8 79°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi46 min N 5.1 G 6 78°F 1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi38 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F60°F43%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N6N3N7
1 day agoNW9
G14
NW5NW7
G14
NW7NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmNW3NW3NW5NW3NW4CalmNW5NW3NW5NW4W6NW6W5
2 days agoN6N5NE6N5N3N4CalmN3N3N3N3N3N3NW4N5N5NW6N6NW5NW6
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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:56 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:19 PM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.41.310.70.40.100.10.30.711.31.41.41.20.90.50.20.10.10.20.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:18 AM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:41 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.31.31.10.80.50.20.100.20.50.81.11.31.31.210.70.40.10.10.10.30.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.