Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:46PM Friday February 15, 2019 9:55 PM EST (02:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:25PMMoonset 3:18AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 949 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming n. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely until late afternoon. Snow in the late morning and early afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the afternoon.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain and snow likely in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
ANZ600 949 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the area tonight into Saturday morning. Low pressure tracks east across north carolina Saturday, then off the coast by Saturday evening. Another low pressure area approaches from the southwest Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 152331
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
631 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the area this evening, then stalls out
across north carolina late tonight while low pressure approaches
from the southwest. The low tracks east across north carolina
Saturday, then off the coast Saturday evening. Another low
pressure area approaches from the southwest Sunday.

Near term through Saturday
As of 355 pm est Friday...

latest analysis indicates strong sfc low pressure (~990 mb) now
becoming stacked with height over eastern canada as the upper
low has caught up with the sfc low. A cold front extends ssw
from the sfc low and is pushing into the spine of the
appalachians. Local area remains well into the warm sector this
aftn and skies are partly to mostly cloudy with well above avg
temperatures ranging from the lower 70s SE to the lower-mid 60s
in the piedmont and eastern shore.

The cold front crosses the area this evening with only modest
forcing so pops this evening will be held down in the chance
range. The front is then progged to stall across nc overnight.

Mild this evening, then falling temps late with lows in the
upper 30s NW to the mid 40s se. Sfc low pressure takes awhile to
organize well to our SW between 06-12z Sat so pops increase
late, but ptype would be all rain through 12z.

Latest 12z 15 model data filtering in continues to support
high chance likely pops N to categorical pops south on sat.

Still appears that this event will be one that will require
high precipitation intensity for accumulating snow to take
place. With the heaviest precipitation focused to the south
closer to the track of the sfc low across central southern nc, best
chance for some changeover to mainly snow will be across
central va where sfc temperatures would initially be in the
upper 30s to lower 40s at 12z, then would potentially fall
several degrees through the mid late morning hrs. Did depict
this in the grids, but still do not anticipate temperatures
falling to 32 f or colder. Thus, accumulating snow will tend to
be less than one inch unless a very definitive band is able to
organize and overcome the warmer airmass. Road temperatures will
be well above freezing due to warm temperatures today tonight so
impact will likely be minimal. Mainly all rain or a rain to
snow mixture elsewhere with no accumulation. If an area of all
snow does verify, still expect temperatures to rise a few
degrees after the snow ends during the aftn as the intensity
diminishes. Highs will be in the upper 40s SE to around 40 f
north, but with that potential of falling into the 30s during
the highest precip intensity (even over the south where it stays
all rain).

Short term Saturday night through Monday
As of 355 pm est Friday...

mostly cldy with some lingering lt rain across sern zones sat
eve, then dry with some partial clrg across the north as high
pressure builds into the area. Lows upr 20s north to mid 30s se.

High pressure retreats Sun morning with some light moisture
returning during the aftn ahead of the next system approaching
from the wsw. Kept all pcpn in liquid form as it is not expected
to arrive until late morning or early aftn. Highs around 40 f
nw to upr 40s- lwr 50s se.

A secondary wave of moisture overspreads the area Sun night
with chc pops north and likely pops central south. Lows mid 30s
north to mid 40s south. This wave pushes off the coast mon
morning with pcpn tapering off west to east and skies expected
to become partly sunny. Milder with highs mainly in the 50s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 330 pm est Friday...

persistent active pattern to continue across the CONUS through
the extended forecast period... W a deep trough remaining over
the wrn CONUS and a weak upper ridge nearly stationary invof
srn fl. This synoptic pattern will result in a strong SW flow
originating SW of SRN ca (over the pacific) to the ERN conus
coast. A series of systems will travel quickly sw-e next
week... Bringing continued high prob for wet wx. The first system
will be Tue night-wed night... Potentially initially starting out
as a wintry mix over N and NW areas... Otw ra expected. Another
system is forecast to arrive Thu night then exit fri... Again w
a prob for a wintry mix N and NW areas (at the start).

Temperatures will average close to normal through the period.

Lows Mon night from the u20s-around 30f N to the u30s se. Highs
tue mainly in the m-u40s. Lows Tue night in the l30s N to around
40f far se. Highs Wed from the l40s N and NW to the m50s in ne
nc. Lows Wed night in the l-m30s N and NW to the u40s along
coastal NE nc. Highs Thu around 50s near the bay ocean and on
the ERN shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Thu night in the
l-m30s N and NW to 40-45f se. Highs Fri in the m40s N to 50-55f
s.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 630 pm est Friday...

sw winds continuing to slowly decrease ahead of cold front approaching
from the w. That front will be crossing the fa overnight W winds
swinging to NE averaging 10-20 kt through sat.VFR conditions persist
now... But will have gradually lowering CIGS through 04-08z 16.

MVFR-ifr CIGS for all TAF by Sat morning as mainly -ra spreads
into the region. Mixed ra sn or a period of sn likely ric sby sat
morning... Through about 17-19z 16... Ra elsewhere. Pcpn winds down end
by late Sat afternoon early evening. Slow improvement late Sat sat
night. Pattern remains active through early next week. Periodic
ifr conditions are likely throughout this time frame. Next low pres
will move across the area late Sun sun night then a second system
tue night-wed.

Marine
As of 330 pm est Friday...

a cold front is approaching the region from the west as of this
afternoon leading to breezy conditions, mainly over the land. Cold
water temperatures (generally in the low to mid 40s) in combination
with warm SW flow is leading to poor mixing over the waters, thus
winds are generally around 15 knots over the waters. Locally higher
wind gusts to 25 knots will be possible right along the shoreline
through this evening. SCA remains in effect north of chincoteague
through this evening mainly due to seas of 5 feet out 20 nm.

The cold front will continue to drop south over the waters tonight
into Saturday morning, turning winds from SW to nne around 15 knots,
and up to 20 knots south of CAPE charles, over the lower bay, and
currituck sound as low pressure moves ene along the stalled cold
front. Went ahead and added the lower bay and lower james into the
sca as model guidance has trended higher with wind gusts across this
region as the low pressure passes to the south. Seas will build to 4
to 5 feet south and perhaps up to 6 feet. Seas 2 to 4 feet north and
waves in the bay 2 to 3 feet. Unsettled pattern then brings another
low pressure system through the area by late Sun or Mon and again by
midweek. Scas may again be possible around wed.

Equipment
Akq radar is down due to a broken part that is on order and
expected to arrive sat. Ftm and usos sent.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz632-
634.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 10 pm est Saturday for
anz633.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Saturday for anz638.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Saturday to 4 am est Sunday
for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz650.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb
long term... Alb
aviation... Alb cp
marine... Ajb
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi44 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 60°F 41°F1006.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi38 min SSW 14 G 14 1007.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi44 min W 6 G 7
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi86 min SSW 1 59°F 1008 hPa48°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi38 min WSW 8.9 G 8.9 57°F 1007.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi38 min W 1.9 G 1.9 53°F 50°F1006.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi38 min SW 6 G 8.9 62°F 45°F1006.9 hPa
44072 37 mi36 min 55°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi38 min SSW 9.9 G 11 52°F 46°F1006.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 6 44°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi38 min SW 9.9 G 12 55°F 40°F1006 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi38 min SW 11 G 14 60°F
44087 49 mi56 min 45°F1 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
S17
S16
S11
S12
S14
S13
S17
S22
S14
S15
S17
S17
S17
S16
S17
S16
S15
S16
SW15
SW15
SW11
SW10
SW14
SW15
1 day
ago
W10
W8
G11
SW6
SW6
SW11
W14
W10
W8
SW7
W6
SW7
W4
S2
S1
S3
SW2
SW4
SE1
SE11
SE15
SE19
SE18
S17
2 days
ago
NW12
NE5
SE6
SW10
SW13
S11
SW16
W10
W8
W11
W10
G13
W16
W16
SW20
W17
W15
W17
W17
W15
W16
W11
W11
SW12
W11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi61 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F47°F62%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last 24hrSE6S3S5S8S7S10
G17
SW5S7S6S8S8
G17
S8
G14
S11
G14
SW11
G18
SW12
G19
SW12
G16
SW12
G18
SW9SW9SW7SW5S4SW6SW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW4CalmSE5S6S5S7SE9SE8SE6SE9
2 days agoCalmCalmS4SW5SW6W9W8W10W7W9
G14
SW10SW12
G21
SW17
G26
W18
G25
W16
G23
SW20
G24
SW17
G25
W14
G24
W15
G26
W13W5SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:54 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:17 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:29 AM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:04 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:55 PM EST     0.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0-00.10.20.50.811.11.110.80.50.30.100.10.30.50.70.90.90.80.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Fleet Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:27 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:18 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:50 AM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:37 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:16 PM EST     0.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.1-000.10.40.60.911.110.80.60.40.20.10.10.20.40.60.80.90.80.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.