Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:11PM Monday May 20, 2019 2:26 AM EDT (06:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 6:18AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 1251 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1251 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast tonight. A cold front crosses the region Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200530
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
130 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the region late this afternoon and evening.

High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday, then shifts off the
coast late in the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 820 pm edt Sunday...

have removed all pops for the overnight as summerlike wx
continues. Mainly skc W ssw winds 5-15 mph and lows from the
u60s-around 70f (potentially challenging daily record high mins
which are listed in the climate section).

Short term 6 am this morning through Wednesday
As of 355 pm edt Sunday...

Monday starts off mostly sunny, then becomes partly sunny from
nw to SE during the aftn. A fairly strong SW flow in the low
levels will make for another hot day (even near the coast) with
highs getting back into the lower 90s for much of the area. Sby
may see their 1st 90f day of the season and there should not be
any marine fog on the coast of the eastern shore where it is
expected to reach at least the low 80s. Mixed layer dew pts
suggest it will be a little less humid with dew pts falling
mostly into the lower-mid 60s (compared to the upper 60s around
70f we have seen today). Models show limited moisture with an
approaching cold front and forecast has only a 20-30% pop making
it to the NW zones by late aftn, likely holding off over se
va NE nc until the evening.

Best chance for shower tstms will be in the evening Mon along
the coast where sfc dew pts remain a little higher, but again
there is limited moisture (and lift) with this front so pops
will only be around 30% closer to the coast, 20% or less farther
inland where drier air pushes in quickly. Decreasing clouds and
turning cooler Mon night. Lows into the mid to upper 50s NW to
the mid 60s se.

While the front will have limited moisture, it will bring a
significantly cooler (and drier) airmass to the local area. Dew
pts likely drop into the 40s for most of the area on tue, with
mostly sunny skies and highs that will range from the mid 70s n
to around 80 f over the far south away from the water. Mostly
clr comfortable Tue night. Lows mostly ranging through the 50s,
though would not be surprised to see a few upper 40s in the
normally colder spots. Upper level ridge centered along the gulf
coast begins to build back N into the area on wed, but with sfc
high pressure lingering along the mid atlc coast, will still be
a comfortable seasonable late may day with highs into the lower
80s inland (and mostly in the mid 70s to near 80 f along the
coast).

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 355 pm edt Sunday...

an upper-level ridge centered over the SE us will dominate the
weather pattern for much of the extended forecast, bring hot and dry
conditions. Pops of 20-30% we added for Thursday for an slight
chance of a showers or thunderstorms as a disturbance moves SE into
the mid-atlantic. Highs will be near 90 inland and low mid 80s for
hampton roads and the eastern shore, with lows in the 60s.

Friday through Sunday will be the warmest days of the week. The
upper-level high will build northeast over the mid-atlantic and the
sfc flow will be out of nw. With the ridge and downsloping, highs
will may reach the mid 90s, especially in the richmond metro. Highs
will get to near 90 at the va and nc beaches and inland eastern
shore. Temperatures at night will not cool off much, lows will be
around 70.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
As of 130 am edt Monday...

vfr conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure
remains off the carolina coast. A cold front crosses the area late
this aftrn and eve. Models show a narrow band of moisture with this
feature, but no more than a 2-3 hr pcpn window at any one TAF site.

Although confidence is low for addng thunder attm, went ahead and
indicated a svrl hr period of bkn CU starting at ric sby into the
erly eve, shifting toward the coast at phf orf ecg arnd 00z. Expect
a gusty SW wind 15-20 kts today ahead of the apprchg cold front.

Winds shift to the NW tonite behind the fropa.

Outlook...

vfr conditions continue through Wed as high pressure is slow to move
east. A NW flow pattern sets up by the end of the week. This may lead
to sct convection movinf nw-se across the area starting late Wed nite
and thurs.

Marine
As of 315 pm edt Sunday...

extended the marine dense fog advisory along the md coast through 7
pm per latest obs and beach cameras. A nearly stationary warm front
in the vicinity has been the cause for this fog. Expecting this
feature to lift NE and weaken by this evening, which should allow
the visibility to improve.

The pressure gradient between high pressure offshore and strong low
pressure over the great lakes will allow sse winds to increase a tad
late this afternoon evening. Generally expecting sustained winds
around 15 knots, with gusts approaching 20 knots in the bay for a
few hours before sunset, especially at elevated sensors. Winds
become south and southwest 10-15 knots by Monday morning as a
trailing trough cold front from parent low pressure over the
northeast approaches the local area. Ssw winds 10-15 knots in the
bay and 15-20 knots offshore will stretch into Monday evening before
the cold front crosses the waters from NW to SE early tues morning.

Models continue to show general agreement regarding a NW surge of 15-
20 knot winds behind the front Tuesday morning before decreasing to
10-15 knots by Tuesday afternoon. There may be a few hours of sca
winds in the bay. Seas remain in the 2-4 ft range through Tuesday
with 1-2 ft waves in the bay, except up to 3 ft tues morning.

Light ne-e winds expected on Wednesday before southerly flow briefly
returns Thursday. The next cold front passage Thursday night should
turn the winds back to the NE again on Friday.

Climate
* records for Mon 5 20:
* site record high record high min
* richmond: 96 (1934) 71 (2018)
* norfolk: 98 (1996) 73 (1996)
* salisbury: 98 (1911) 70 (2018)
* eliz city: 98 (1996) 73 (2018)
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site
* richmond: may 13th
* norfolk: may 16th
* salisbury: may 27th
* eliz city: may 18th
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Alb
short term... Lkb
long term... Cp
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi74 min WSW 14 G 14 76°F 70°F1012.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi56 min SW 11 G 14 76°F 68°F1014 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi56 min S 17 G 18 1015.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi38 min WSW 9.7 G 12 74°F 69°F1013.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi56 min SW 12 G 13
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi56 min SW 15 G 19 76°F 1015.5 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi56 min SW 7 G 9.9 1014.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi56 min SSW 11 G 15 78°F 72°F1014.6 hPa
44072 37 mi36 min 75°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi56 min SSW 16 G 20 74°F 74°F1013.9 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi56 min SSW 12 G 13 69°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi56 min SW 12 G 14 75°F 69°F1013 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi56 min SW 14 G 17 77°F 1014 hPa
44087 49 mi56 min 69°F1 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi51 minSSW 810.00 miFair77°F66°F70%1015.2 hPa

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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3SW3SW4SW3S5SE3E10
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2 days agoSE4E5E5E4CalmS7SW7SW6SW5
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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
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Mon -- 01:19 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:46 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:44 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.41.31.10.80.50.2-0-0.100.30.60.91.11.110.70.40.2-0-00.10.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:40 AM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:19 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:05 PM EDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.31.31.20.90.60.30-0.1-00.10.40.711.110.80.60.30.1-000.20.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.