Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deep Creek, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:47PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 5:24 PM EST (22:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:13PMMoonset 7:40AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 343 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Through 7 pm..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Rain in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 343 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure off of the carolina coast will move northeast tonight. A frontal boundary then stalls over the southeast and mid atlantic states through Friday. Another low pressure system arrives by Saturday, with a cold frontal passage Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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location: 37.76, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 202059
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
359 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure off of the carolina coast will move northeast
tonight. A frontal boundary then stalls over the southeast and
mid atlantic states through Friday. Another low pressure system
arrives by Saturday, with a cold frontal passage Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 245 pm Wednesday...

the tricky ptype forecast continues this afternoon at least
across the nw. At this point, it is mostly a rain or freezing
rain event as temps have struggled to rise today across the
piedmont in the NE flow. In fact, temps have held steady around
31 with a dew point around 29 all day in the NW piedmont. Latest
hrrr and rap suggest that temps will not really rise until
later this evening with NE flow continuing. As such, will opt to
hold onto the advisory for fluvanna louisa until 10 pm and
goochland cumberland until 7 pm. This should give enough time
for the winds to turn SW and temps to rise above freezing in
these areas. A few spots may see up to 0.25" storm total of flat
ice (although perhaps about 0.10-0.15 radial ice). Otherwise,
have allowed all other advisories to expire at 3pm. Caroline
county into the northern neck may see another hour or two of
freezing rain, but given the wet bulb temps at 32, do not expect
any additional impacts. In addition, dorchester county md may
see another hour or two of sleet in locations, but given that
most of the lower md eastern shore is above freezing, do not
expect any additional impacts there either.

Otherwise, the precip will continue across the north this evening,
slowly moving southward as the night GOES on. With temps above
freezing, there will not be a ptype issue. In fact, we may see temps
rise or at least become steady as the winds gradually shift to the
sw ahead of the front. Lows tonight will likely be this evening,
with lower 30s NW to upper 40s-near 50 se.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
As of 245 pm est Wednesday...

the cold frontal boundary will be slow to move through the southern
half of the region on Thursday as it becomes nearly parallel to the
upper flow aloft without much to push it southward. Southern stream
moisture will continue to stream along the front and allow for rain
showers across the mainly southern half of the forecast area. Best
chances for precip will be Thu morning but will need to keep chance
pops at least for the entire day across the southern 1 3-1 2 of the
forecast area. Highs most areas in the mid 50s-lower 60s. Warmest
areas may be northwest where the Sun comes out by afternoon.

The front finally pushes south of the area by Thu evening. Should
stay mostly dry Thu evening however another wave is forecast to move
into the area causing an increased chance of rain mainly west
overnight despite the high pressure ridge at the sfc. The surface
ridge actually tries to re-enforce itself on Friday, but in the
meantime a better baroclinic zone develops at 850mb due to the
amplifying system over the plains. Will therefore need to continue
with high chance or even likely pops across much of the region
Friday (especially in the afternoon), quickly tapering to dry
conditions across the md eastern shore as that region will remain
significantly in the dry air. The baroclinic boundary has a rough
time moving northward Friday night due to the strong high to the
north, however it finally returns north as a warm front Saturday with
widespread rain across the area for much of the day Saturday.

With much of the area being south of the front Friday, it will
remain cooler than average. Generally in the 40s on Friday. Saturday
will end up seeing a gradient of temps across the region with lower
40s NW to mid 50s SE as this region may try to break out in the
afternoon as the front lifts northward.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 250 pm Wednesday...

potent upper shortwave (coupled W deepening sfc low pressure) is
progged to track from the plains to the upper midwest Sat night.

This will allow the warm front to move N of the region Sat night,
breaking down the cad wedge pattern in place during the day on sat.

As the warm front lifts n, the main area of steady rain will lift
n NE of the region. However, numerous showers are likely across the
n nw, while areas S of i-64 E of i-95 will see isolated-scattered
showers through the night. Temperatures will slowly rise Sat night
(forecast temps at 12z Sun range from the low 50s over the nw
piedmont to around 60 over SE va NE nc) as winds veer to the S then
sw behind the front. Shower chances continue through 18z Sun before
the trailing cold front crosses the region as the aforementioned sfc
low tracks into SE canada. Expect temperatures to warm up quickly
during the day on Sun W sw-w winds before low-level CAA overtakes
the region. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s in most areas (except
for mid-upper 60s on the ERN shore). Upper 70s are possible in se
va NE nc.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal across the CONUS early next week,
leading to less active wx across much of the country (including our
area). Drier (but still around average) Mon mon night as sfc high
pressure briefly settles into the region. Still dry seasonable on
tue as high pressure moves offshore. Our next chance of rain is tue
night-wed, as low pressure and an associated cold front approach the
region. Highs on Mon will be in the mid-upper 50s in most areas
(except for low 50s on the ERN shore). Lows mainly in the upper 20s-
low 30s Mon night W highs rising into the upper 40s on the ern
shore low-mid 50s elsewhere on tue. Lows Tue night range from the
mid 30s N NW to the low 40s se.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
As of 230 pm est Wednesday...

high pressure center has moved off the southern new england
coast this afternoon, however, wedge remain over the va
piedmont. All sites have transitioned to -ra. Ifr lifr will
conditions will continue through the overnight Wed night. Cigs
will be 300-700 ft with visibility 2-5 sm. A weak low pressure
will move across the area tonight, winds will remain light and
switch from NE to SW by thur morning. Rain showers will remain
for ric sby ecg phf through the day tomorrow. Conditions should
improve to MVFR late thur morning.

High pressure builds N of the region Thursday night into
Friday. However, moisture will continue to spread over the
region with clouds and a minimal chc of light rain continuing.

Low pressure, and more rain and flight restrictions are expected
Friday night into Saturday. A cold front crosses the region
Saturday.

Marine
As of 355 pm est Wednesday...

late this aftn, weak sfc low pressure was just off the SE nc
coast, while high pressure was centered just off the SRN new
england coast. The gradient between these two systems was
providing ese winds 10-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt over the
waters. That sfc low will lift NE right along or just offshore
this evening into tonight, before a cold front from the nw
pushes down acrs the area during thu.

Have the SRN three bay zns (631-632-634), the york river (636),
and the lower james river (638) in a SCA until 7 pm this
evening, due to E winds 15-20 kt. Have all the coastal zns in a
sca thru Thu morning, due to winds and or seas. Ese winds
become ssw tonight, then wsw Thu morning becoming NW or N thu
aftn at diminished speeds. High pres builds into the region
late Thu into fri, before another system approaches the area
fri night and sat. A stronger cold front likely impacts the
region the first part of sun.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for vaz061-
062.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
vaz048-509-510.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz631-
632-634-636-638.

Small craft advisory until 11 am est Thursday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Mrd
long term... Eri
aviation... Cp
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi54 min E 12 G 16 42°F 42°F1023.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi54 min E 19 G 22 1024.8 hPa
44089 23 mi54 min 42°F6 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi54 min ESE 7 G 8 38°F 40°F1025.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi54 min ESE 13 G 15 39°F 40°F1024.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi54 min E 11 G 18 44°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 46 mi54 min E 9.9 G 12 42°F 1024.7 hPa
44072 47 mi44 min 43°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi60 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi29 minESE 7 G 142.00 miDrizzle43°F42°F98%1024 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA20 mi30 minE 11 G 194.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist43°F41°F93%1025 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmNE3E4NE5NE9NE5CalmE5E12
G16
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1 day agoN13
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N6N4
2 days agoCalmNE5E6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3W7S3SW5SW7W10W6
G14
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W11
G16
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N13

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
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Wed -- 06:17 AM EST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:23 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:54 PM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.221.50.80-0.6-0.9-0.8-0.30.51.42.12.52.52.11.40.6-0.2-0.7-0.8-0.60.10.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Guard Shore
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:15 AM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:00 AM EST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:39 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:43 PM EST     2.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:37 PM EST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.421.40.7-0-0.5-0.7-0.40.31.22.12.72.82.621.30.5-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.10.71.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.