Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deep Creek, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday August 17, 2017 11:25 AM EDT (15:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:53AMMoonset 3:31PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1005 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 ft increasing to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft... Building to 2 to 3 ft in the late evening and early morning, then subsiding to 1 to 2 ft late. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning, then a chance of showers late.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 kt...increasing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1005 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides offshore through tonight. The next cold front approaches from the northwest on Friday and then drops across the waters Friday night and stalls near the mid atlantic coast through Sunday morning. High pressure rebuilds over the area for late in the weekend into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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location: 37.76, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 171147
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
747 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary remains over the mid atlantic today as
high pressure builds over the northeast states. The next cold
front affects the area Friday into Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak stalled frontal bndry over the
area with high pressure over the northeast states. Expect some
patchy fog this morning especially over eastern areas, with
vsbys quickly improving later this morning. Deep layer moisture
increases today, and with the sfc bndry in the vicinity and weak
impulses aloft, there will be a chance of shras tstms especially
inland with dry conditions expected near the coast. Otws, some
increasing cloudiness today with high temps in the upr 80s to
near 90 inland and mid 80s near the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
Frontal boundary remains in the vicinity tonight. Enough
moisture and support noted to keep slight chc-chc pops across
the area, with the best chance over NRN areas. Low temps in the
low to mid 70s.

Plenty of moisture around the region Friday with a sfc trof providing
the trigger for convection to develop. Not expecting a washout, but
do think the chc for pcpn will be around all day. More humid as
well with heat indices reaching at least 100 in many spots.

Widespread severe wx is not expected at this time, but gusty
winds and locally heavy downpours are possible. Highs upr 80s
to lwr 90s.

Frontal boundary slowly drifts SE across the region Friday night and
Saturday keeping the chc for pcpn going. Drier air behind the front
will likely cut off any convection across nwrn most zones sat. Lows
fri night 70-75. Highs Sat 85-90.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Cold front remains stalled near the mid atlantic coast sat
night into Sun morning before sagging well south of the area
by Sun aftn. Any showers storms INVOF the front will diminish
as the front moves farther south of the region. For the rest
of Sun into Sun night, sfc high pressure builds north of the
area, and although temperatures should experience little to
no change, dewpoints will drop around 5 degrees thus feeling
a tad cooler. High pressure slides off the coast on mon...

bringing a return to warm air advection and increasingly more
humid conditions. Sfc features rather diffuse during the
early part of next week, however seabreeze boundaries with
plenty of moisture present will keep a chance for
thunderstorms in the forecast during this time.

Highs generally mid-upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s
beaches. Lows Sat Sun nights generally upper 60s NW to around
75f se. Lows Mon Tue nights generally 70-75f.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Patchy fog to start the 12z TAF period. Any sub-vfr aviation
conditions will improve this morning as the fog dissipates
quickly after sunrise withVFR conditions returning to the
region. Early visible imagery suggests fog ifr conditions will
be most persistent in the area straddling the i-95 corridor
including kric, and northeastward toward kxsa. Could linger as
long as 14z. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
once again develop this afternoon, particularly across the
piedmont. Generally light and variable winds are anticipated
this morning with winds becoming southerly and increasing to
5-10 knots this afternoon.

Outlook: a cold front approaches the region Friday into Saturday
bringing another chance for showers, thunderstorms, and sub-vfr
conditions. High pressure builds back into the region Sunday.

Marine
Latest obs reflect light s-sw flow over the waters this morning. A
weak boundary stalled just north of the waters and extending back
into the ohio valley will lift farther north into the northeast
today, as low pressure crosses the upper great lakes today through
tonight. Pressure gradient begins to tighten today across the local
area as the associated (slow-moving) cold front tracks into the ohio
valley today, eventually crossing the mountains Fri before reaching
the waters late Fri night into Saturday morning. Winds speeds
increase to an average of 10-15kt this aftn... Initially SE and then
veering to s-sw late tonight early Fri morning into Fri evening as
the front approaches. Hi-res models indicate some southerly
channeling late tonight through Friday, bringing winds to near sca
thresholds late tonight thru Fri morning and again Fri aftn.

However, have held winds at 15kt for now with probabilities favoring
predominate sub-sca winds. Some elevated winds possible with t-
storms Friday aftn and night. This surge of winds would be short-
lived and convective in nature and therefore likely better addressed
with targeted smw mws. Seas average 2-3ft through this period, but
may touch 4ft out near 20nm as the front crosses the waters fri
night.

Winds become more w-sw post-frontal with speeds AOB 10kt early sat
morning into Sun morning as the front stalls near the mid atlantic
coast Sat night and early Sunday, and then become more onshore sun
aftn into Mon as the front sags farther south of the area.

Latest data indicating long second periods have largely abated with
distant hurricane gert accelerating farther NE away from the conus,
and well SE of atlantic canada. One more day of elevated (moderate)
rip current risk over northern area beaches, with low rip risk
across SE va NE nc outer banks. Given a mid to late morning low tide
cycle, rip risk should be lower for northern beaches for the
afternoon and evening.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Mas
short term... Mas mpr
long term... Bmd
aviation... Ajb mas wrs
marine... Mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi38 min W 1.9 G 4.1 82°F 82°F1017.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi38 min WSW 1 G 1.9 1018.7 hPa
44089 23 mi26 min 76°F2 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi46 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 80°F 1018.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi46 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 78°F 1016.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi38 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 78°F 82°F1017.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi38 min ESE 6 G 7 79°F 82°F1017.2 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi38 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 79°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 46 mi38 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 81°F 1018.2 hPa
44072 47 mi46 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 80°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi38 min S 8.9 G 9.9

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi51 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast81°F75°F83%1017.9 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA20 mi32 minWNW 59.00 miOvercast76°F73°F94%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N3NE5W3SE4SE7S5S4S5S4SE4CalmS3CalmS3SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmNW4
1 day agoSE4S4CalmN4N8------------------------------------N5
2 days agoE4E4E6E6E4E5E4E6SE5SE4SE3SE4CalmSE3SE4S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:11 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:52 PM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.70.40.40.611.41.81.91.91.71.40.90.50.20.20.40.91.522.42.52.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:59 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.20.30.50.91.31.61.71.61.310.60.30.10.20.40.91.41.82.12.11.91.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.