Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deep Creek, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:48PM Sunday November 19, 2017 4:45 PM EST (21:45 UTC) Moonrise 7:36AMMoonset 6:00PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 324 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Through 7 pm..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely early in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 324 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves across the southeast states through Monday, then slides offshore Monday night and Tuesday. Low pressure will move northeast along the mid atlantic coast Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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location: 37.76, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 192043
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
343 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure moves across the southeastern states through Monday,
then slides offshore Monday night and Tuesday. Low pressure will
move northeast along the mid atlantic coast Tuesday night ahead
of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
The cold front now well offshore with high pressure centered over
texas. This high moves east providing clr skies. Winds diminish but
do not completely decouple. Lows in the 30s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
The sfc high moves across the carolinas Mon then off the coast mon
night and tues. Dry through this period with a warming trend as
winds shift into the ssw. Highs Mon in the low to mid 50s. Lows mon
night in the 30s to near 40 se. Increasing afternoon clouds and
milder tue. Highs 60-65.

A trof develops along the sern coast late tues with a weak area of
low pressure moving NE along it Tue night and wed. Moisture from the
system lifts north with the best lift progged along the coast. Expect
shwrs to spread north Tue night then shift towards the coast wed
morning as the system slides offshore. Likely pops along the bay
and coast... Chc pops west of the bay Tue night. Chc pops along
the coast Wed morning then drying out. QPF generally under one
quarter inch. Lows Tue night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs wed
in the 50s except near 60 across nern nc.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
High pressure builds into the area Thursday resulting in a dry but
cool holiday. Lows Wed night in the 30s to lwr 40s se. Highs thurs
in the upr 40s to lwr 50s.

Another area of low pressure develops off the SE coast late in the
week but it appears the high to the north keeps any sgnfcnt moisture
south of the local area. Dry and continued cool fri. Highs 50-55.

Next cold front approaches from the NW late Sat then crosses then
area early sun. GFS wetter than ECMWF so will go with low chc pops
sat night for now. Warmer Sat ahead of it with highs 55-60. Lows sat
night in the 40s to near 50 se. Cooler behind it Sun with highs mid
40s-lwr 50s.

Aviation 21z Sunday through Friday
Vfr conditions through the forecast period with only sct CU this
afternoon. Main concern will be the gusty wnw winds btwn 20-30kts
for the rest of today, slowly diminishing after 00z.

Outlook: high pressure moves across the sern states through Monday,
then tracks off the southeast coast on Tuesday. A trof of low pres
develops along the carolina coast Wed with sct shwrs across the sern
taf sites by mid week.

Marine
Late this aftn, a cold front was pushing out to sea, while high
pressure was cntrd over NE texas. The gradient between the
exiting cold front and the high pressure area was resulting in
nw winds 15 to 25 kt over the waters with gusts to around 30 kt.

There were a few gusts near 35 kt over the NRN coastal waters.

Will leave gale warning in effect until 4 am for the 3 nrn
coastal zns, as gusts to around 35 kt still possible due to caa
and drier airmass filtering into the area. Otherwise, sca's
will remain in effect for the remainder of the waters into thru
mon morning, as the cntr of the high builds ene toward the mid
atlc region.

High pressure builds over the SE states into the SRN mid atlc
region Mon into Mon night, then slides out to sea on tue.

Adverse boating conditions Mon morning will subside during the
day, with more benign quiet sub-sca conditions expected Mon aftn
thru Tue night, as winds become SW mainly 10 to 15 kt.

Models in fair agreement with developing a low off the SE coast
tue night, then passing east of CAPE hatteras and ene out to sea
during wed. Next chance for SCA conditions will likely be wed
aftn into Wed night, as cool high pressure builds in fm the
west.

Equipment
The fan on the temperature sensor at the richmond ASOS (kric)
has likely failed, causing erroneous temperature readings. The
contract observer is augmenting the official METAR observations
(hourly METAR and specis). However, the 5-min high resolution
data is automated directly from the sensor and is subject to
reporting this erroneous data. As such, do not rely on the 5 min
temperature data from kric until our techs can repair the
sensor, likely on Monday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Monday for anz633-635>638-
656-658.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Monday for anz630>632-634.

Gale warning until 4 am est Monday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Tmg
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi46 min NW 6 G 13 53°F 55°F1007.1 hPa (+1.9)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi46 min NNW 24 G 28 1007.6 hPa (+1.5)
44089 23 mi46 min 57°F3 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi36 min N 14 G 18 55°F 2 ft1007.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi36 min NNW 18 G 23 53°F 3 ft1007.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi46 min Calm G 0 50°F 52°F1008.5 hPa (+2.7)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi46 min NNW 14 G 20 52°F 54°F1007.9 hPa (+2.2)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi46 min NW 17 G 19 56°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 46 mi46 min NW 14 G 17 57°F 1008 hPa (+1.7)
44072 47 mi36 min NW 16 G 19 57°F 2 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi46 min NNW 22 G 23

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi76 minNW 18 G 2510.00 miFair and Breezy55°F33°F45%1006.8 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA20 mi52 minNW 14 G 2510.00 miFair51°F30°F45%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11
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1 day agoNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4S4S5S6SW4S6S6S7S8S8
G16
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2 days agoN3CalmW3N10
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NW6NW10
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NW10NW6
G14
NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:01 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:11 PM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:48 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.81.510.60.20.10.20.61.11.72.22.42.321.610.50.20.20.30.71.21.6

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:47 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:53 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:01 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:34 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.51.20.80.40.10.10.20.61.11.622.11.91.61.20.70.40.10.10.30.71.21.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.