Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Deep Creek, VA
May 5, 2024 1:31 PM EDT (17:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:58 AM Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM Moonset 4:19 PM |
ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1258 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
This afternoon - S winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tstms likely in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1258 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a frontal boundary slowly lifts north through the local waters later today, with winds becoming more southerly. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast on Monday, as a weakening cold front approaches from the ohio valley. That front stalls just north of the area Monday night and Tuesday, with a series of low pressure systems passing by, mainly to the north through Thursday.
a frontal boundary slowly lifts north through the local waters later today, with winds becoming more southerly. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast on Monday, as a weakening cold front approaches from the ohio valley. That front stalls just north of the area Monday night and Tuesday, with a series of low pressure systems passing by, mainly to the north through Thursday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 051410 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1010 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1010 AM EDT Sunday...
Late this morning, a warm front was starting to lift back north across the region. This is evident not only from the winds having turned to the SE, but also the temperature gradient across the area. Latest obs showed lower 70s in the SE with dewpoints also in the 60s, and mid to upper 50s in the NW for both temps and dewpoints. As the front continues northward this aftn, temps will rise into the mid to possibly upper 70s SSE, and should eventually rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s N.
Shortwave energy within the SW flow aloft as well as the front advancing N, will lead to additional rounds of showers and tstms this aftn into this evening. Expect the highest coverage to gradually expand ewrd across the region. Coverage is then expected to decrease late this evening and into the overnight, as the main axis of pcpn progresses E. Chance PoPs then continue E of I-95 through the night. Instability of 600-700 J/KG (mean HRRR SCAPE) means there will be a decent chance for thunder.
Regarding QPF, expecting widespread 0.25-0.5" with higher amounts of 1.0-1.5" within heavier showers/storms. Remaining mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain to start the week
- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions
Mon and Tues mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will persist through the week. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in the (fairly weak) SW flow aloft plus a lee trough will lead to off and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the afternoon through late evening. Temps climb into the low 80s on Monday with dewpoints as high as the upper 60s. HRRR mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two. Highest coverage in precip on Mon looks to be across the south (roughly S of US-460) during the afternoon hours as of latest guidance. Tuesday is less certain, as models are still showing some disagreement regarding coverage and timing of precip. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the south of low 80s in the north. Lows both nights will be in the mid- upper 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-normal temps Wednesday through Friday.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime continues through the rest of the week.
A ridge aloft starts to break down Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed-Thurs.
Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...
A warm front pushes N of the area today, leading to improved flight conditions during the day. CIGs have already improved to VFR at all terminals except RIC. RIC will have intermittent IFR this morning, then will be solidly MVFR by the afternoon. CIGs are expected to drop to IFR/LIFR again tonight at RIC/SBY/PHF, although there is less certainty for PHF. Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and overnight, especially W of the bay. Winds will be SE-S through the period and gusty at the coast this afternoon.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night- Monday, due to an unsettled weather pattern.
Sunday night should be mostly dry, but more tstms are possible Mon aftn-late Mon evening. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.
MARINE
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- All Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued.
Strong sfc high pressure (>1030mb) is centered across Atlantic Canada early this morning, with a stationary front in vicinity of the NC Outer Banks slowly pushing N. E-SE winds prevail, but the wind speeds have generally been under-performing over the past 12 hrs and as such, have decided to cancel all remaining SCA headlines. Conditions today will still be less than ideal for boating as SE winds average 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt and waves of 2-3 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft in the rivers. Seas are 3-4ft.
The stationary front will continue to lift back N as a warm front later today, with winds becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt tonight, and then to the SSW by Monday. Winds will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The winds may increase a bit Thu- Fri as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger cold front.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 600 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the northern Neck through late tonight/early Monday for minor flooding.
- A new Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the high tide cycle late tonight/early Monday for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore.
Ebb tide currents have been stronger over the past 18-24 hrs, leading to a slight lowering of tidal departures in the Bay and tidal rivers (departures are now mainly +1.0 to +1.25 ft above astro tide). The upcoming high tide cycle later this morning/early this aftn will likely fall short of Minor Flood thresholds given the latest obs and trends, with the following cycle late tonight/early Monday morning expected to reach into Minor flood thresholds. This is due to a few extra tenths of a foot of surge (from SSE winds) in tandem with astro tides that will also be a few tenths higher during this timeframe. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect to cover this period (for the northern Neck the Advisory is also in effect for 1st tide today given the product was already in effect). Water levels are expected to drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as winds shift to the SW and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to localized low- end minor flooding will still be possible with the higher diurnal astro tides late Mon night/early Tue AM and again late Tue night/early Wed AM.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1010 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1010 AM EDT Sunday...
Late this morning, a warm front was starting to lift back north across the region. This is evident not only from the winds having turned to the SE, but also the temperature gradient across the area. Latest obs showed lower 70s in the SE with dewpoints also in the 60s, and mid to upper 50s in the NW for both temps and dewpoints. As the front continues northward this aftn, temps will rise into the mid to possibly upper 70s SSE, and should eventually rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s N.
Shortwave energy within the SW flow aloft as well as the front advancing N, will lead to additional rounds of showers and tstms this aftn into this evening. Expect the highest coverage to gradually expand ewrd across the region. Coverage is then expected to decrease late this evening and into the overnight, as the main axis of pcpn progresses E. Chance PoPs then continue E of I-95 through the night. Instability of 600-700 J/KG (mean HRRR SCAPE) means there will be a decent chance for thunder.
Regarding QPF, expecting widespread 0.25-0.5" with higher amounts of 1.0-1.5" within heavier showers/storms. Remaining mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain to start the week
- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions
Mon and Tues mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will persist through the week. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in the (fairly weak) SW flow aloft plus a lee trough will lead to off and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the afternoon through late evening. Temps climb into the low 80s on Monday with dewpoints as high as the upper 60s. HRRR mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two. Highest coverage in precip on Mon looks to be across the south (roughly S of US-460) during the afternoon hours as of latest guidance. Tuesday is less certain, as models are still showing some disagreement regarding coverage and timing of precip. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the south of low 80s in the north. Lows both nights will be in the mid- upper 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-normal temps Wednesday through Friday.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime continues through the rest of the week.
A ridge aloft starts to break down Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed-Thurs.
Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...
A warm front pushes N of the area today, leading to improved flight conditions during the day. CIGs have already improved to VFR at all terminals except RIC. RIC will have intermittent IFR this morning, then will be solidly MVFR by the afternoon. CIGs are expected to drop to IFR/LIFR again tonight at RIC/SBY/PHF, although there is less certainty for PHF. Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and overnight, especially W of the bay. Winds will be SE-S through the period and gusty at the coast this afternoon.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night- Monday, due to an unsettled weather pattern.
Sunday night should be mostly dry, but more tstms are possible Mon aftn-late Mon evening. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.
MARINE
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- All Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued.
Strong sfc high pressure (>1030mb) is centered across Atlantic Canada early this morning, with a stationary front in vicinity of the NC Outer Banks slowly pushing N. E-SE winds prevail, but the wind speeds have generally been under-performing over the past 12 hrs and as such, have decided to cancel all remaining SCA headlines. Conditions today will still be less than ideal for boating as SE winds average 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt and waves of 2-3 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft in the rivers. Seas are 3-4ft.
The stationary front will continue to lift back N as a warm front later today, with winds becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt tonight, and then to the SSW by Monday. Winds will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The winds may increase a bit Thu- Fri as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger cold front.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 600 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the northern Neck through late tonight/early Monday for minor flooding.
- A new Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the high tide cycle late tonight/early Monday for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore.
Ebb tide currents have been stronger over the past 18-24 hrs, leading to a slight lowering of tidal departures in the Bay and tidal rivers (departures are now mainly +1.0 to +1.25 ft above astro tide). The upcoming high tide cycle later this morning/early this aftn will likely fall short of Minor Flood thresholds given the latest obs and trends, with the following cycle late tonight/early Monday morning expected to reach into Minor flood thresholds. This is due to a few extra tenths of a foot of surge (from SSE winds) in tandem with astro tides that will also be a few tenths higher during this timeframe. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect to cover this period (for the northern Neck the Advisory is also in effect for 1st tide today given the product was already in effect). Water levels are expected to drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as winds shift to the SW and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to localized low- end minor flooding will still be possible with the higher diurnal astro tides late Mon night/early Tue AM and again late Tue night/early Wed AM.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 11 mi | 44 min | S 12G | 67°F | 63°F | 30.15 | ||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 20 mi | 44 min | SE 15G | 30.19 | ||||
| 44089 | 24 mi | 36 min | 55°F | 3 ft | ||||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 29 mi | 38 min | SSE 16G | 65°F | 64°F | 2 ft | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 35 mi | 38 min | SSE 12G | 64°F | 63°F | 1 ft | ||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 35 mi | 44 min | SSE 12G | 67°F | 65°F | 30.15 | ||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 40 mi | 44 min | S 7G | 68°F | 66°F | 30.14 | ||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 43 mi | 44 min | S 16G | 66°F | 61°F | 30.17 | ||
| 44072 | 47 mi | 38 min | ESE 9.7G | 65°F | 1 ft | |||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 48 mi | 44 min | S 13G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 13 sm | 76 min | SSE 13 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 72°F | 63°F | 73% | 30.16 | |
| KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA | 20 sm | 37 min | S 09G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.18 |
Tide / Current for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:23 AM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:15 AM EDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:42 PM EDT 2.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:23 AM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:15 AM EDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:42 PM EDT 2.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| -0.1 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 2.2 |
| 11 am |
| 2.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.5 |
Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:06 AM EDT -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:54 AM EDT 1.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:21 PM EDT 2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:06 AM EDT -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:54 AM EDT 1.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:21 PM EDT 2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| -0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.1 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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