Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Deep Creek, VA
May 16, 2024 6:13 AM EDT (10:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:41 PM Moonset 1:36 AM |
ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 355 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Through 7 am - NW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ600 355 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system lingers just offshore today, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend. The next system moves in Saturday night with another round of elevated winds and seas Sunday and Monday.
a low pressure system lingers just offshore today, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend. The next system moves in Saturday night with another round of elevated winds and seas Sunday and Monday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 160936 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 536 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast today. Mainly dry conditions prevail through Friday afternoon, but showers and storms return Friday night through the weekend. Dry weather returns early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
- Warmer and mainly dry today with partly sunny skies.
Low pressure (~998mb) is currently off the coast of NJ early this morning, with mostly cloudy skies over the area. The low will likely drift SSE today. It appears now that it will be far enough offshore that skies will become partly to mostly sunny by early aftn over all areas except the eastern shore. Drier conditions are expected today behind the departing low pressure system. Temps rise into the upper 60s-mid 70s on the eastern shore with upper 70s-around 80F west of the Bay. There may be just enough lingering moisture for an isolated shower across the eastern shore during the aftn/early evening. In addition, could see a few showers/tstms form over the mountains and move into our far western counties after 20z/4 PM. Any lingering showers or isolated tstms should quickly dissipate by 8-10 PM. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s inland, with dry wx expected.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Dry through mid/late aftn Friday, with a few showers/storms possible W of I-95 late in the day. Becoming unsettled with widespread showers and locally heavy rain possible Saturday into Saturday night.
- Showers continue on Sunday with high temperatures only in the 60s across much of the area.
Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure remain over the area on Friday before moving offshore by Friday evening. The low level flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out around 80F inland. The next system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas E of I-95 will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.
Unsettled wx is expected to prevail from Friday night through much of the weekend. An upper shortwave is progged to slowly track east from the MS River Valley to VA/NC from Sat AM through Sun. At the surface, high pressure will be our NE along/off the New England coast into Atlantic Canada, with sfc low pressure tracking just S of the upper low/trough. The guidance continues to show precipitable water values rising to 1.60-1.80" by Fri night/Sat, with a moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift expected over the region in advance of that upper shortwave. Off and on rain likely continues through much of the weekend before rain chances end from north to south from Sun AM- Sun night. The heaviest rain is expected from Fri night-Sat night, with PWs dropping off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves overhead. With E flow expected on Saturday (becoming NE on Sun), temps will be below average (highs in the mid 60s-mid 70s on Sat with 60s across much of the area on Sun). As such, sfc-based instability will be quite limited after Fri/Fri evening. That said, could still see a rumble of thunder or two across southern portions of the area on Sat, with mainly showers expected by Sunday. WPC currently has a Marginal ERO for Saturday and given the heavy rainfall of the past 24 hrs will need to monitor trends as this will likely lead to additional/continued hydro concerns. At this time, the forecast (through 12z/8 AM Sunday) has 1-2" of areal average QPF, with slightly lower amounts on the eastern shore.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry weather returns early next week.
- Below average temperatures continue on Monday (especially near the coast), with warming temps expected by midweek.
High pressure slowly builds toward the area from the NW during the early and middle part of next week. Still relatively cooler (and potentially cloudy with a few showers near the coast) on Monday with continued onshore flow. Dry wx is expected from Mon night through much of Wed as the high builds over the area before moving offshore.
There is a chc for some late day convection Wed. Again, highs will stay a bit below avg on Monday, but warm to near to above avg by the middle of the week.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 125 AM EDT Thursday...
Ceilings have risen to VFR at all terminals, but am still expecting periodic MVFR CIGs through the morning at ORF/PHF/SBY before prevailing VFR CIGs return by midday. VFR through the period at RIC/ECG. Gusty N winds (to 15-20 kt) are possible from late morning through early evening. There will be the potential for another round of MVFR CIGs at SBY tonight into early Friday, otherwise primarily VFR conditions through tonight.
Outlook: VFR Friday except at SBY where MVFR CIGs could persist through the morning. Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.
MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Marginal SCA winds and seas continue through today.
- Lighter winds expected Friday and Saturday.
- Extended period of onshore flow likely Sunday and Monday, with elevated winds and seas.
998 mb low pressure is centered off of NJ this morning. Winds are NNW 10-20 kt in the Chesapeake Bay (highest N) and 5-10 kt elsewhere. The low will remain nearly stationary through the rest of this morning before slowly drifting S and weakening later today.
There has been a downward trend in forecast winds across all near- term model guidance through the next 24 hrs, though winds may touch SCA criteria for a time in the Chesapeake Bay this morning and early aftn (best chance 12-18z/8 AM-2 PM). Will maintain the previous SCA, but it will be extremely marginal and largely sub-SCA. Did completely remove the lower James from the SCA given higher confidence in sub- SCA winds. N winds become 10-15 kt tonight.
NE winds should average ~10 kt Friday and 5-10 kt Friday night into Saturday morning. Sub- SCA easterly winds expected Saturday. Another low pressure system will move near or S of the area Sunday and then looks to meander off of the Carolina coast through early next week. With high pressure over srn New England, NE gradient winds are expected for an extended period from Sat night through at least Monday. At this time, winds look to be in the upper end of the SCA range and highest across the srn half of the marine area. Low-end gales cannot be completely ruled out. Winds look to drop off considerably for Tuesday as high pressure nudges southward into the region.
Seas this morning are 3-5 ft S of Parramore Island and 4-6 ft to the N, where SCAs remain in effect. Waves are 1-3 ft in the bay. Seas will continue to trend down today and tonight but remain near 5 ft out 20 nm N of Chincoteague through most of Friday. In terms of headlines, the SCA between Parramore Island and Chincoteague (ANZ652) was adjusted to end at 23z/7 PM today and the SCA N of Chincoteague (ANZ650) continues through 23z/7 PM Friday. 3-4 ft seas are expected everywhere Fri night-Sat night. The increased onshore flow will increase seas considerably to at least 5-7 ft Sunday into Monday. Waves at the mouth of the bay also increase to 4-5 ft, with 2-4 ft elsewhere in the bay.
HYDROLOGY
As of 530 AM EDT Thursday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville, Nottoway River near Rawlings, and Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Levels at Rawlings are expected to crest today, with levels at Lawrenceville and Stony Creek cresting tonight-Friday. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 536 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast today. Mainly dry conditions prevail through Friday afternoon, but showers and storms return Friday night through the weekend. Dry weather returns early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
- Warmer and mainly dry today with partly sunny skies.
Low pressure (~998mb) is currently off the coast of NJ early this morning, with mostly cloudy skies over the area. The low will likely drift SSE today. It appears now that it will be far enough offshore that skies will become partly to mostly sunny by early aftn over all areas except the eastern shore. Drier conditions are expected today behind the departing low pressure system. Temps rise into the upper 60s-mid 70s on the eastern shore with upper 70s-around 80F west of the Bay. There may be just enough lingering moisture for an isolated shower across the eastern shore during the aftn/early evening. In addition, could see a few showers/tstms form over the mountains and move into our far western counties after 20z/4 PM. Any lingering showers or isolated tstms should quickly dissipate by 8-10 PM. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s inland, with dry wx expected.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Dry through mid/late aftn Friday, with a few showers/storms possible W of I-95 late in the day. Becoming unsettled with widespread showers and locally heavy rain possible Saturday into Saturday night.
- Showers continue on Sunday with high temperatures only in the 60s across much of the area.
Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure remain over the area on Friday before moving offshore by Friday evening. The low level flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out around 80F inland. The next system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas E of I-95 will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.
Unsettled wx is expected to prevail from Friday night through much of the weekend. An upper shortwave is progged to slowly track east from the MS River Valley to VA/NC from Sat AM through Sun. At the surface, high pressure will be our NE along/off the New England coast into Atlantic Canada, with sfc low pressure tracking just S of the upper low/trough. The guidance continues to show precipitable water values rising to 1.60-1.80" by Fri night/Sat, with a moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift expected over the region in advance of that upper shortwave. Off and on rain likely continues through much of the weekend before rain chances end from north to south from Sun AM- Sun night. The heaviest rain is expected from Fri night-Sat night, with PWs dropping off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves overhead. With E flow expected on Saturday (becoming NE on Sun), temps will be below average (highs in the mid 60s-mid 70s on Sat with 60s across much of the area on Sun). As such, sfc-based instability will be quite limited after Fri/Fri evening. That said, could still see a rumble of thunder or two across southern portions of the area on Sat, with mainly showers expected by Sunday. WPC currently has a Marginal ERO for Saturday and given the heavy rainfall of the past 24 hrs will need to monitor trends as this will likely lead to additional/continued hydro concerns. At this time, the forecast (through 12z/8 AM Sunday) has 1-2" of areal average QPF, with slightly lower amounts on the eastern shore.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry weather returns early next week.
- Below average temperatures continue on Monday (especially near the coast), with warming temps expected by midweek.
High pressure slowly builds toward the area from the NW during the early and middle part of next week. Still relatively cooler (and potentially cloudy with a few showers near the coast) on Monday with continued onshore flow. Dry wx is expected from Mon night through much of Wed as the high builds over the area before moving offshore.
There is a chc for some late day convection Wed. Again, highs will stay a bit below avg on Monday, but warm to near to above avg by the middle of the week.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 125 AM EDT Thursday...
Ceilings have risen to VFR at all terminals, but am still expecting periodic MVFR CIGs through the morning at ORF/PHF/SBY before prevailing VFR CIGs return by midday. VFR through the period at RIC/ECG. Gusty N winds (to 15-20 kt) are possible from late morning through early evening. There will be the potential for another round of MVFR CIGs at SBY tonight into early Friday, otherwise primarily VFR conditions through tonight.
Outlook: VFR Friday except at SBY where MVFR CIGs could persist through the morning. Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.
MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Marginal SCA winds and seas continue through today.
- Lighter winds expected Friday and Saturday.
- Extended period of onshore flow likely Sunday and Monday, with elevated winds and seas.
998 mb low pressure is centered off of NJ this morning. Winds are NNW 10-20 kt in the Chesapeake Bay (highest N) and 5-10 kt elsewhere. The low will remain nearly stationary through the rest of this morning before slowly drifting S and weakening later today.
There has been a downward trend in forecast winds across all near- term model guidance through the next 24 hrs, though winds may touch SCA criteria for a time in the Chesapeake Bay this morning and early aftn (best chance 12-18z/8 AM-2 PM). Will maintain the previous SCA, but it will be extremely marginal and largely sub-SCA. Did completely remove the lower James from the SCA given higher confidence in sub- SCA winds. N winds become 10-15 kt tonight.
NE winds should average ~10 kt Friday and 5-10 kt Friday night into Saturday morning. Sub- SCA easterly winds expected Saturday. Another low pressure system will move near or S of the area Sunday and then looks to meander off of the Carolina coast through early next week. With high pressure over srn New England, NE gradient winds are expected for an extended period from Sat night through at least Monday. At this time, winds look to be in the upper end of the SCA range and highest across the srn half of the marine area. Low-end gales cannot be completely ruled out. Winds look to drop off considerably for Tuesday as high pressure nudges southward into the region.
Seas this morning are 3-5 ft S of Parramore Island and 4-6 ft to the N, where SCAs remain in effect. Waves are 1-3 ft in the bay. Seas will continue to trend down today and tonight but remain near 5 ft out 20 nm N of Chincoteague through most of Friday. In terms of headlines, the SCA between Parramore Island and Chincoteague (ANZ652) was adjusted to end at 23z/7 PM today and the SCA N of Chincoteague (ANZ650) continues through 23z/7 PM Friday. 3-4 ft seas are expected everywhere Fri night-Sat night. The increased onshore flow will increase seas considerably to at least 5-7 ft Sunday into Monday. Waves at the mouth of the bay also increase to 4-5 ft, with 2-4 ft elsewhere in the bay.
HYDROLOGY
As of 530 AM EDT Thursday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville, Nottoway River near Rawlings, and Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Levels at Rawlings are expected to crest today, with levels at Lawrenceville and Stony Creek cresting tonight-Friday. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ652.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 12 mi | 56 min | WNW 1.9G | 60°F | 66°F | 29.67 | ||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 20 mi | 56 min | NW 13G | 29.73 | ||||
| 44089 | 24 mi | 48 min | 57°F | 4 ft | ||||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 29 mi | 50 min | NW 16G | 62°F | 66°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 35 mi | 50 min | NNW 12G | 59°F | 64°F | 1 ft | ||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 35 mi | 56 min | NNW 9.9G | 61°F | 65°F | 29.68 | ||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 40 mi | 56 min | NNW 7G | 63°F | 67°F | 29.70 | ||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 43 mi | 56 min | NNW 11G | 64°F | 66°F | 29.72 | ||
| 44072 | 47 mi | 50 min | WNW 9.7G | 61°F | 1 ft | |||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 48 mi | 56 min | N 11G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA | 8 sm | 24 hrs | NW 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 29.71 | ||||
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 13 sm | 18 min | NW 16 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.70 | |
| KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA | 20 sm | 19 min | WNW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 57°F | 94% | 29.69 |
Tide / Current for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EDT 0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:36 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT 1.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT 0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT 1.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EDT 0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:36 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT 1.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT 0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT 1.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Guard Shore
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:56 AM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:36 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM EDT 2.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 02:31 PM EDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT 2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:56 AM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:36 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM EDT 2.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 02:31 PM EDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT 2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.5 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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