Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Modest Town, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:13PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:34 PM EDT (18:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 7:02AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 107 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
This afternoon..N winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 107 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure returns for today and Wednesday, then shifts off the coast late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Modest Town, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.77, -75.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 211505
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1105 am edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the northwest today and tonight,
and settles immediately off the coast Wednesday. This area of
high pressure then shifts off the coast later in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1045 am edt Tuesday...

latest analysis indicates that the sfc cold front has pushed
well S of the local area, now located over southeast nc. Sfc
high pressure is centered over the great lakes and is building
se into the mid-atlantic states, with area obs showing about a 3
to 5 mb rise in pressure over the past 6 hrs. Nnw winds, gusty
to 25 mph prevail on the eastern shore, with N to NE winds in
place elsewhere (also somewhat gusty to around 25 mph along the
coast). Temperatures as of 15z 11am range from around 70 f
across the N to the mid upper 70s over the s. Dew pts have
dropped into the lower 50s N but remain in the lower 60s in ne
nc. Mostly sunny and pleasant this aftn with just some scattered
cu developing. Highs will range from the lower 80s in interior
ne nc and south central va to the lower-mid 70s along the coast
and over the n.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
As of 400 am edt Tuesday...

dry and seasonal conditions will continue tonight into
Wednesday as high pressure shifts from the NRN mid-atlantic
tonight, to off the mid-atlantic coast Wednesday. Clear tonight
with low temperatures ranging from around 50f n, to the
mid upper 50s near and along the coasts of SE va NE nc. Favored
cold spots potentially drop into the upper 40s. Mostly sunny
Wednesday with high temperatures ranging from the low mid 70s
along the coast (around 70f md atlantic coast), to around 80f
well inland.

High pressure shifts east Wednesday night and Thursday allowing
the start of the next warmup. Models continue to show a NW flow
upper level flow pattern setting up that could allow for
another round of upstream convection to dive sewd. The 21 00z
gfs remains most aggressive with this, while the nam ECMWF are
generally drier and more capped. Timing can be a problem this
far out so pops are mainly ~20%. Low temperatures Wednesday
night are in the upper 50s to low 60s, followed by highs
Thursday in the mid upper 80s inland, to the upper 70s low 80s
closer to and along the coastlines.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 330 pm edt Monday...

a few tstms are possible (highest chances ne) Thu night as a weak
disturbance in NW flow aloft tracks through the region. Otherwise,
strong upper-level ridging (and associated anticyclone) remains
centered over the southeast for much of the extended period while a
series of shortwaves track well to our N (from the upper midwest to
new england). As a result, very high confidence in above average
temperatures (and mostly dry conditions) from Fri through early next
week. A weak cold front may try to sneak into nrn ERN portions of
the CWA on Sat am, but no pcpn is expected with the fropa. The front
quickly washes out during the day on sat. Perhaps a brief
shower TSTM Sat night, but otherwise dry this weekend. Slight
chances for mainly aftn-evening showers tstms may return early next
week as the center of the anticyclone retreats slightly to the
southwest. Highs mainly in the low-mid 90s inland on Fri with mid
80s-around 90f near the coast. Still very warm on Sat with highs
ranging from the mid 80-low 90s (highest inland coolest over the
lower md ERN shore). Sunday may be the hottest day of the weekend
with highs will be in the mid 90s in most areas W upper 80s on the
lower ERN shore. Lows throughout the extended period will mainly in
the mid 60s-around 70f.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 700 am edt Tuesday...

a cold front is slowly pushing through NE nc as of 11z. The
wind will initially shift to NW behind the front, and then turn
nne 8-12kt primarily after 12z, and continuing through the day
with occasional gusts to 15-20kt. Mostly clear sunny conditions
are expected as high pressure builds in from the nw. High
pressure becomes centered N of the area tonight, with a light ne
wind under a clear sky.

High pressure remains over the region Wednesday, before sliding
offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a 20-30% chc of
showers tstms Thursday aftn evening as a trough slides across
the area in NW flow aloft. Dry conditions are expected Friday
into Saturday as weak high pressure returns.

Marine
As of 410 am edt Tuesday...

a cold front will drop acrs the waters and push into the atlc
during this morning. Fairly modest pressure rises occur behind
the frontal passage, with high res guidance still showing a
surge of nnw winds in the wake of the front this morning. Winds
in the ches bay and the lower james river will generally run
15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Accordingly, scas remains in
effect for these areas through 10 am this morning. Waves will
briefly build to 3 ft this morning, then subside to 1-2 ft by
this aftn. Winds offshore will also run 15-20 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots and seas 3-4 ft in offshore flow. Winds decrease
to 5-15 knots later today into Wed before swinging around to
the ese and then S by thu, as high pressure moves offshore and
ridging aloft builds over the southeast. There is the potential
for another cold frontal passage on fri.

Climate
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
Kakq 88d down ufn. Apparent comms rda modem problem. Techs are
working on the issue.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
anz630>632-634.

Synopsis... Ajz lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Ajz lkb
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Jdm tmg
climate... Akq
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 4 mi34 min 66°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 18 mi40 min NW 5.1 G 13 71°F 77°F1015.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 36 mi40 min N 18 G 20 1016.9 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 42 mi40 min NNW 8 G 9.9 67°F 59°F1016 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi40 min N 11 G 17 67°F 76°F1016.4 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 47 mi64 min NE 14 G 16 69°F 71°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last
24hr
S15
S15
S14
S13
S13
S12
W19
G24
SW8
G15
SW12
G15
SW11
S13
W5
W5
W5
W7
N19
N19
G24
N23
N23
NW21
N22
N19
G23
N20
N19
1 day
ago
S12
SE13
SE12
SE18
SE15
SE16
SE15
SE15
S16
S19
S18
S16
S16
S15
S15
S14
S14
SW13
SW13
S12
S7
S13
S14
S17
2 days
ago
E11
E13
E12
E11
E14
E12
SE16
E14
G17
SE11
SE10
SE12
SE9
SE8
SE10
SE12
SE11
SE13
SE10
SE7
S5
S7
S14
S15
S12

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi40 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F53°F46%1015.1 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA21 mi39 minNW 9 G 1410.00 miFair71°F51°F50%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrS15
G20
S18
G24
S14S17S18
G23
SW10W10
G20
SW9SW6SW5W7W6W6NW6NW5NW6NW7N10N9
G18
NW12
G19
NW12NW9
G19
N11
G15
Calm
1 day agoS14S17
G23
S17S13
G23
S15
G22
S16S12S11S12
G21
S13S11S8S4S5S6S6SW11SW8W12
G17
W11
G21
W11
G19
W10S13
G16
S15
G21
2 days agoE10E7E8E8E8SE5S5SE6SE6SE10S7SE4SE3S6SE6E4E4SE5SE7SE10S10S12S10
G16
S10

Tide / Current Tables for Wallops Island, Virginia (2)
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Wallops Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:04 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:09 AM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3210.2-0.20.10.91.82.73.33.63.42.821.20.60.20.51.22.23.13.84.24.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wallops Island, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Wallops Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:52 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:01 AM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:46 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:22 PM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
31.90.80.1-0.10.20.91.72.53.13.33.12.51.60.70.1-00.31.122.93.74.14

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.