Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gargatha, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:48PM Thursday February 21, 2019 5:45 PM EST (22:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:23PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 258 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Through 7 pm..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds, subsiding to 2 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ600 258 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak cold front will drop south through the waters this afternoon and evening. The front then stalls over the southeast and mid atlantic states on Friday. Another low pressure system arrives by Saturday, with a cold frontal passage Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gargatha, VA
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location: 37.78, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 212104
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
404 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary drops southward into the carolinas this evening.

The front then stalls over the mid atlantic and southeast states
into Saturday, as high pressure builds eastward from the great
lakes into new england. That frontal boundary will lift back
north as a warm front and across the area Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning. A cold front will then cross the region
during Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 345 pm est Thursday...

late this aftn, a weak cold front was about to drop into nc,
with just isolated showers observed on radar. Otherwise, the sky
was ranging fm mostly sunny to mostly cloudy acrs the area.

Temps ranged thru the 50s into the lower 60s.

That front will sink farther south into the carolinas tonight,
as high pressure builds eastward acrs the lower great lakes.

However, just a brief break in the rain chances thru early
tonight, before chances return late tonight into Fri morning,
esply over the WRN half of the area, as increasing moisture and
energy stream in fm the wsw. Lows tonight will mainly range fm
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
As of 355 pm est Thursday...

more rain chances will continue Fri thru Sun morning. High
pressure will build eastward fm the lower great lakes to just
off the england coast Fri thru Sat aftn, creating another cad
situation over the area. Waves of moisture energy in the SW flow
aloft coupled with the return northward of the frontal boundary
as a warm front, will result in more chances for rain, esply
acrs the SRN two thirds of the area Fri into early Sat aftn
(high chance to cat pops). Then, Sat aftn thru Sun morning, the
warm front will lift acrs the region followed by the approach of
a cold front. High chance to cat pops over most of the area
during this time period. The cold front will push off the coast
later Sun aftn early Sun evening, with pcpn ending fm W to e
late Sun morning thru Sun aftn and a clearing sky. Westerly
winds behind the front will help high temps climb into the upper
60s to mid 70s acrs most of the region on sun. Highs in the mid
to upper 40s fri, and ranging fm the lower 40s to the lower 50s
sat.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm est Thursday...

the flow aloft becomes more zonal across the CONUS early next week,
leading to less active wx across much of the country (including our
area). Drier (but still around average) Mon mon night as sfc high
pressure briefly settles into the region. Still dry seasonable on
tue as high pressure moves offshore. Highs on Mon will be in the mid-
upper 50s in most areas (except for low 50s on the ERN shore). Lows
mainly in the upper 20s-low 30s Mon night W highs rising to around
50 on the ERN shore mid 50s-around 60 elsewhere on tue. Lows tue
night range from the low 30s N NW to the around 40 se.

Models diverge in their solutions for mid-late next week. Latest
12z 21 ECMWF is forecasting high pressure to settle into the plains
(w sfc ridging extending to the NRN mid-atlantic region). The ecmwf
solution would lead to below average temps and mainly dry conditions
(perhaps a chc of light pcpn Wed night-thu). The GFS is much warmer,
as it tracks a weak area of low pressure N of the region wed-wed
night (bringing light rain), W slightly cooler air settling into
the region on thu. For now, went W a model blend from wed-thu and
kept slight chc pops in the forecast from wed-thu am (for -ra).

Forecast highs are in the 50s on wed, cooling to the mid-upper 40s
n low-mid 50s S by thu. Lows mainly in the 30s Wed Thu night.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 130 pm est Thursday...

a weak frontal boundary is located near the va nc state line
with -shra. Kphf korf kecg are still hanging on to ifr
condition this afternoon and will continue for the next couple
of hours before drier air move into the area this evening. MVFR
conditions will linger throughout the evening with CIGS bkn
1-2k ft after 20z. Kphf korf kecg will improve toVFR condition
by 03z fri. Kric and ksby will remain withVFR condition this
evening and into tonight. Another round of rain will move into
the area from the west around 09z Friday morning bringing MVFR
condition with CIGS 2-3k ft through most of the day on Friday.

Outlook... Another round of moisture will spread across the area
Friday as a warm front will move back north across the area.

There will be a brief window ofVFR weather early Sunday
morning ahead of a cold front that will move across the area
Sunday afternoon.

Marine
As of 215 pm est Thursday...

light winds will shift to the nne through late aftn early evening as
a weak frontal boundary drops south over the waters. Waves 1-2 ft;
seas 2-4 ft. Some increase in wind speed is expected early Friday
morning as sfc high pressure to the N sags south into the area. Have
speeds ~15 kt, and 15-20 kt for the southern coastal waters. With
nne flow will have to watch to see if seas respond and try to build
to 5 ft. For now, not confident enough to issue SCA for this. High
pressure over the area Fri gradually retreats to the NE on sat, as a
frontal boundary begins to lift back N as a warm front Sat night.

Winds will veer to the SE Sat night then to the SW and increase on
sun as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. Sca
conditions appear likely Sun and Sun night, and potentially
lingering into Monday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Tmg
short term... Tmg rhr
long term... Eri
aviation... Cp
marine... Jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 12 mi45 min 43°F4 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi45 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 45°F1017.6 hPa (+1.0)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 29 mi45 min NNE 6 G 6 1019.2 hPa (+1.1)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 40 mi45 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 44°F 42°F1018.6 hPa (+0.6)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 45 mi51 min S 1.9 G 2.9 46°F 42°F1018.5 hPa
OCSM2 46 mi165 min 3 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 48 mi51 min NW 4.1 G 6 44°F

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi51 minWNW 410.00 miFair52°F44°F75%1018.1 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi50 minNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F44°F81%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E7NE4E5E5S6SW6W7W12
G18
W6W9W8W6W8W64W8NW8W9W6W6W4NW5NW4
1 day agoSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4N4NE4E6E6CalmNE13E10E7NE14E12NE15E16
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2 days agoNW8
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NW9N7N6NW9NW9NW7N6NW5NW55N8NW83NW4W8NW8N5E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for Gargathy Neck, Virginia
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Gargathy Neck
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Thu -- 03:55 AM EST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:03 AM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:28 PM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:37 PM EST     3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.20.2-0.5-0.8-0.40.61.72.73.43.73.52.71.70.7-0.2-0.8-0.7-0.10.922.93.43.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wallops Island, Virginia
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Wallops Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:15 AM EST     -1.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:34 AM EST     4.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:40 PM EST     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:00 PM EST     4.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.5-1-0.9-01.22.53.64.34.33.72.61.2-0-0.8-0.9-0.40.723.244.443.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.