Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozora, MO

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Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:50PM Sunday August 19, 2018 9:10 AM CDT (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozora, MO
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location: 37.78, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 191159
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
659 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018

Short term (through late tonight)
issued at 401 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018
surface ridge extends from the great lakes region southwest into
eastern mo early this morning with calm winds and clear skies across
our area which has lead to the formation of fog across parts of
southeast mo and southwest il, particularly in the slo and enl
areas. This fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise with diurnal
cumulus clouds developing later this morning into the afternoon due
to daytime heating and relatively abundant low level moisture.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely move into central mo this
afternoon as low-mid level warm air advection increases ahead of an
approaching shortwave rotating around the deepening upper level low
over the northern plains. The operational GFS model appears too
quick with the eastward progression of its QPF this afternoon.

Prefer the hrrr model runs which do not bring convection into
central mo until after 3 pm. The convection will become more
widespread and shift eastward through the entire forecast area
tonight as the upper level and associated surface low deepen over
northeast ks into northwest mo with relatively strong low level warm
air advection, theta-e advection and moisture convergence across our
area associated with a strong south-southwesterly low level jet
ahead of the 850 mb low. Areas along and east of the mississippi
river will not see much precipitation until late tonight.

Gks

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 401 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018
showers and thunderstorms from tonight should be ongoing along and
east of the mississippi river at 12z Monday, associated with a vort
max rotating northeast through the advancing upper trof as well as
low level moisture convergence via the southwesterly llj. This
activity should exit to the east of the CWA by mid-late morning, and
there could be a period of somewhat tranquil weather through early
afternoon. We are still carefully eyeing the potential for severe
weather Monday afternoon evening. Diurnal heating in the wake of the
morning activity should result in modest destabilization with sbcape
values of 1500-2000+ j kg in the afternoon. Present thinking is that
large scale ascent associated with the migratory upper trof will
weaken any cap and combine with lift along ahead of the advancing
cold front to support the development of scattered thunderstorms
across eastern mo by 20-21z, either discrete or possibly a broken
line. W SW deep layer shear on the order of 35 kts would support
both multicell and short-lived supercell modes, with a predominant
large hail and damaging wind threat. I would not be surprised to
see the current marginal risk upgraded to a slight risk provided
the aforementioned destabilization does indeed come to fruition.

The threat of storms will be focused across eastern mo and western
il early in the evening, gradually shifting east with time as the
cold front progresses east. I think by midnight or so the threat
of storms will have moved east of the CWA as the upper trof and
cold front continue to push east.

Cyclonic flow will dominate the area on Tuesday in the wake of the
departing system. The presence of cyclonic flow and a good deal of
low level rh suggests that stratus stratocu will be rather
extensive, at least through the morning. This along with weak caa
will promote cooler temperatures. There could also be some lingering
spotty light showers across the eastern part of the cwa, however the
region is generally in large scale subsidence so I don't expect
much.

Below normal temperatures will dominate the region Wednesday and
Thursday as a long wave trof over the eastern u.S. Maintains a
dominant 1020+ mb surface high pressure system. The pattern aloft
however will begin a transition to more progressive late Thursday
into Friday. The combination of a migratory trof translating across
the mid upper ms valley and the development of return flow good
southwesterly LLJ in the wake of the retreating anticyclone, will
result in increasing thunderstorms chances. As we head into next
weekend it appears we will see a return to above average
temps summer heat as heights build aloft accompanying the
development of an expansive upper high ridge centered in the lower
ms valley.

Glass

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 553 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018
a surface ridge extends from mi southwest into eastern mo. Fog in
uin and sus will dissipate by 14z this morning. Broken diurnal
cumulus clouds will develop later this morning into the afternoon.

It appears that this will be in theVFR category, although could
not rule out ceiling heights briefly around 3000 feet late this
morning. A developing and approaching low pressure system in the
plains will lead to showers and storms moving into cou this
evening and into uin and the st louis metro area late tonight. The
cloud ceiling will drop into the MVFR category late tonight as
the surface boundary layer saturates. The light surface wind will
become southeasterly later this morning and gradually strengthen
through the day and tonight as the surface pressure gradient
tightens.

Specifics for kstl: a surface ridge extends from mi southwest into
eastern mo. Broken diurnal cumulus clouds will develop later this
morning into the afternoon. It appears that this will be in the
vfr category, although could not rule out ceiling heights briefly
around 3000 feet late this morning. A developing and approaching
low pressure system in the plains will lead to showers and storms
moving into stl late tonight. The cloud ceiling will drop into the
MVFR category late tonight early Monday morning as the
surface boundary layer saturates. The light surface wind will
become southeasterly later this morning and gradually strengthen
through the forecast period as the surface pressure gradient
tightens.

Gks

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmington Airport, MO20 mi14 minESE 35.00 miFog/Mist72°F70°F94%1014.3 hPa

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Last 24hrNW66NW6NW5NW4N74N6N5NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoW8W7W6SW3S4W3SW7W5W3W3N3W3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3NW4CalmNW5NW5
2 days agoCalmNW4NW3NW3CalmSW5W7W6W4S3S4Calm3SE4SW5W18
G27
SW7S9CalmCalmSW3W4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Paducah, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.