Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozora, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:49PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:02 AM CST (16:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:34PMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozora, MO
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location: 37.78, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 221156
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
556 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

Short term (through late Saturday afternoon)
issued at 350 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
main concern through tomorrow is precipitation trends and
the potential for a few strong severe storms on Saturday.

The CWA is precipitation free early this morning as northeasterly
low level flow is brining dry flow into the area from surface
ridge that extends from the northern plains into the southern
great lakes. Regional radar does show some returns over
southeastern missouri associated with increasing low level
moisture convergence under southwesterly flow aloft. Expect
showers to gradually move northward into the CWA today as the
surface ridge retreats northward and the moisture moves northward.

The chances for showers will increase tonight as upward ascent
increases as an upper trough begins to eject out of the southern
high plains. This will increase both upper ascent and moisture
transport associated with the low level jet in to the midwest. Spc
sref is also showing an increase in MUCAPE tonight over much of
the area supporting going thunderstorms chances. Will keep
categorical pops for showers going into tomorrow when forcing will
be maximized ahead of the upper low and attendant cold front.

There will still be the potential for a few strong severe storms
over southeast missouri into southwest illinois on Saturday
afternoon ahead of the cold front. Instability is the main
question as model forecast mucapes are weak (<500 j kg), but
0-1km shear is nearly 40kts suggesting that isolated fast moving
storms remain possible capable of producing damaging winds and
possibly a tornado.

Britt

Long term (Saturday night through Thursday)
issued at 350 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
main concern on Saturday night will be the wind speeds as the
pressure gradient between the exiting surface low and the surface
ridge over the great plains will be very tight. All three global
models show the surface low deepening to 980mb or less by the time
it enters the western great lakes on Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings from the GFS are showing 50-60kt between 900-800mb late
Saturday night into early Sunday over CWA with cold air advection
behind the cold front. Will likely need an wind advisory over
much of the area as both sustained winds will be close to 30 mph
and gust up to 45 mph. Any showers and thunderstorms will move
out during the early evening as the cold front dry slot moves
through during the evening. There may be some rain or snow that
linger late evening or overnight over northeast missouri into west
central illinois with the deformation zone of the upper low, but
it will not last long as all three models show this low quickly
lifting northeast into the great lakes.

With the upper low lifting out of the great lake into the northeast
conus early next week, the upper flow will become predominantly
zonal across the central part of the nation for most of the next
week. After the cold front moves through on Saturday, this front is
also forecast to stay south of the missouri and illinois. This will
act to keep temperatures below normal most of next week which
supported by GEFS forecast plumes. A low amplitude trough will move
across the midwest midweek which will bring a chance of rain or snow
to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Britt

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 531 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
dry andVFR conditions are expected at the terminals through at
least 18z. Then scattered showers will move in from the south and
reach the st. Louis area terminals and kcou by early afternoon.

Then MVFR ceilings will move into terminals during the afternoon
and early afternoon hours. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
become more widespread overnight with ifr ceilings and
visibilities expected.

Specifics for kstl:
dry andVFR conditions are expected through at least 18z. Then
scattered showers will move in from the south and reach kstl by
early afternoon. While some passing showers may have MVFR
ceilings, predominant MVFR ceilings are not expected until after
00z. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will become more
widespread after 00z with ifr ceilings and visibilities expected
toward 12z.

Britt

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmington Airport, MO20 mi66 minENE 47.00 miOvercast35°F30°F85%1025.8 hPa

Wind History from FAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E8E6CalmN6NE6NE8NE6NE5E8E7NE3NE5NE5E5NE6NE6NE8NE6NE8NE8NE8NE9E4
1 day agoSW4SW8W9SW8W15
G19
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NW6W6W3W3NW4NW8W4W3CalmCalmNW5CalmNW4CalmSE3CalmCalm
2 days agoE5E10E8E9E10E11E9E13E10E10
G16
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G19
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E6E8E13E6NE3Calm--CalmS3S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Paducah, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.