Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:55PM Sunday August 20, 2017 8:57 PM EDT (00:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:03AMMoonset 6:15PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 655 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers and tstms likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 655 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides offshore and out to sea late tonight through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest Tuesday night, then crosses the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 210044
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
844 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast tonight
through Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area late Wednesday.

Near term through Monday
High pressure slides offshore allowing winds to become more srly.

Pockets of moisture after midnight result in some fog development
across SRN and ERN shore areas. Lows in the upr 60s-lwr 70s.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday
Models track an area of low pressure north of the fa mon. This
combined the a trailing trof should be enough of a trigger for
sct convection to develop across the mts then drift e-se across
the northern most zones of the fa after 18z. Will carry low chc
pops mainly north of ric for now. Otw, dry with highs upr 80s-lwr
90s except low-mid 80s at the beaches. Evening pops across the
lwr md ERN shore Monday night, otw dry with lows 70-75.

Hot dry tues ahead of the approaching cold front. 85-90 along the
coast, 90-94 west of the bay.

Dry most of tues night except increasing moisture should lead to
a few shwrs by daybreak across NRN most zones. Lows low-mid 70s.

Frontal boundary a bit slower to traverse the fa wed. This combined
with a weak wave progged to move east along it will spread widespread
moisture and support likely pops in the afternoon. Another round of
mdt to hvy downpours possible ahead and along the fropa. Highs 85-90.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
A cold front gradually drops through the area Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Modest ascent accompanies the front
within the rrq of a ~110kt jet over new england along with pw values
around +1 st dev. The highest pops (high chc likely) based on 27 12z
data are forecast across SRN va NE nc. Pops across SE portions
gradually diminish to 20-40% by Thursday aftn. Thunder will be
maintained into Wednesday evening, with showers thereafter as stable
ne flow prevails in the wake of the front. Drier air gradually
filters in from the NW late Wednesday night into Thursday with
partial clearing across the NRN tier counties. Lows Wednesday night
range from the mid 60s NW to the low 70s se, followed by highs
Thursday in the upper 70s to low 80s. ~1025mb (+1 st dev) high
pressure builds from the great lakes across the saint lawrence
valley and into new england Thursday nigh through Sunday. This will
result in persistent onshore flow, which combined with a drier
airmass will result in a series of pleasant days with highs in the
upper 70s at the coast to low 80s inland, with lows in the upper 50s
to low 60s inland, and mid upper 60s along the coastlines.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions expected most of the forecast period with only
sct CU btwn 3-5k ft after 15-17z 21. Concern once again tonight
is for patchy fog development as the winds become (light) sse.

Kept vsbys in the MVFR range for now between 06z-12z, but some
guidance suggests LCL ifr vsbys psbl across inland areas.

Any morning fog burns off around 12z Mon withVFR conditions to
follow. The next cold front approaches the region wed. Sub-vfr
conditions and showers tstms will be possible wed... And may
linger across SE terminals into Thu morning.

Marine
Latest surface analysis has a high pressure centered over the
region. The high pressure moves off the coast Monday through Monday
night and a cold front approaches the waters Tuesday night through
Wednesday. The front pushes out of the area by Thursday with high
pressure building back into the region for the remainder of the
forecast period. Obs indicate generally NE E winds of 5 to 10 knots
over the waters with waves of 1 to 2 feet and seas of 2 feet. The
flow becomes SE around 10 knots on Monday as high pressure moves
offshore. Winds increase and become southerly ahead of the
approaching cold front Tuesday through Tuesday night. Winds speeds
may approach 15 to 20 knots over the bay and ocean with seas
building to 3 to 4 feet, potentially up to 5 feet north 20nm out,
and waves building to 2 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be
needed for the chesapeake bay Tuesday night. Winds shift to the N ne
behind the front on Wednesday through Thursday around 10 to 15 knots.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Ess mpr
long term... Ajz
aviation... Alb mpr
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi40 min S 5.1 G 6 79°F 85°F1020.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi40 min SSE 8 G 8.9
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi28 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 82°F 1019.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi88 min SE 1 82°F 1021 hPa68°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi28 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 82°F 1021 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi40 min S 5.1 G 6 80°F 83°F
NCDV2 39 mi40 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 80°F 86°F1019.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi40 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 1021.4 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi28 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi40 min SE 5.1 G 7 80°F 83°F1020.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi40 min SSE 11 G 12 80°F 1020.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi40 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 80°F 1021 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi40 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 86°F1020.7 hPa
44072 48 mi28 min SSE 9.7 G 12 80°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair80°F63°F56%1020.7 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair78°F68°F73%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3N7CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmN4N3NE6NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmNE4N3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmE3CalmS3E4SE4SE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N3N4NW4CalmCalmSE3S4CalmCalm
2 days agoSE4CalmCalmS3S4S7S6CalmS4S5S6S4S4SE6SE6SE7SE5SE6S5S6S5
G15
S6S6--

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:04 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:58 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:31 PM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.31.91.50.90.40.1-0.10.10.61.21.7221.81.40.90.40.1-0.10.10.51.21.8

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:10 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.321.510.50.1-00.20.61.21.7221.81.40.90.40.1-0.10.10.51.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.