Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:56PM Friday February 22, 2019 7:42 AM EST (12:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 8:55AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 707 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain until late afternoon, then a chance of rain late.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 1 foot. Rain in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 707 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds north of the region today, as a frontal boundary stalls over the southeast states through Saturday. The front will lift back north as a warm front Saturday night. A cold front will then cross the region on Sunday and Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221130
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
630 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary stalls over the mid atlantic and southeast
states into Saturday, as high pressure builds eastward from the
great lakes into new england. The front will lift back north as
a warm front Saturday. A cold front will then cross the region
Sunday.

Near term through tonight
As of 340 am est Friday...

unsettled weather pattern will continue today with plentiful
moisture streaming into the area from the south and west. This
moisture will interact with a stalled frontal boundary to warrant
decent rain chances across the region, with the highest pops focused
across the southern half of the area today. QPF will range from
a few hundredths across the north to 0.25-0.50" across the
south. Widespread clouds and the front to our south will lead
to a cool day with mid 40s expected for high temperatures.

Highest pops overnight will remain across the south and
southwestern portions of the area before greater precip chances
begin to spread north and east into the early morning hours of
Saturday. High pressure to our north will continue to feed
cooler and drier air southward late tonight into Saturday but
overnight lows will be held in check by continued widespread
cloudiness with upper 30s to low 40s expected from north to
south.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 340 am est Friday...

Saturday will feature competing influences on local temperatures.

The aforementioned surface high to the north will get nudged
offshore in response to deepening low pressure across the central
plains moving northeastward into the midwest. An in-situ cad wedge
airmass will be entrenched across the piedmont as widespread clouds
and precip help to reinforce the near surface stable layer. At the
same time, a warm front will attempt to lift northward as southerly
flow ahead of approaching low pressure strengthens. There will
likely be a sharp gradient in temperatures across the region on
Saturday with upper 30s and low 40s across the far northwest ranging
to low to mid 50s across the southeast. Widespread precip is
expected over the area on Saturday with categorical pops expected as
deep layer moisture is lifted over the near surface cool stable
airmass. Focus for heavier rain will shift to the north Saturday
night as the warm front makes northward progress. Winds become
southerly in the wake of the front with steady rain transitioning to
showers after the front passes. A cold front will approach the
region on Sunday with westerly winds behind the boundary. Rain
chances will come to end as the front crosses the region. Storm total
precip will average around 1 inch with the highest totals
expected across the southwestern quadrant of the area where
1.25-1.50" is possible. Given the recent wet weather, and what
is expected to fall this weekend, we could certainly see some
river flooding issues into early next week.

Downsloping westerly winds and increasing late-february Sun angle
will allow temperatures to warm considerably on Sunday afternoon
with upper 60s and low 70s inland and low to mid 60s expected across
the eastern shore. Some guidance is showing mid and upper 70s for
Sunday, held off on going quite that high with this forecast package
but Sunday looks to be a very nice day after this prolonged period
of wet dreary weather. Decreasing dewpoints and cooler temperatures
will move in for Sunday night with mid 30s to low 40s expected for
overnight lows.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 345 pm est Thursday...

the flow aloft becomes more zonal across the CONUS early next week,
leading to less active wx across much of the country (including our
area). Drier (but still around average) Mon mon night as sfc high
pressure briefly settles into the region. Still dry seasonable on
tue as high pressure moves offshore. Highs on Mon will be in the mid-
upper 50s in most areas (except for low 50s on the ERN shore). Lows
mainly in the upper 20s-low 30s Mon night W highs rising to around
50 on the ERN shore mid 50s-around 60 elsewhere on tue. Lows tue
night range from the low 30s N NW to the around 40 se.

Models diverge in their solutions for mid-late next week. Latest
12z 21 ECMWF is forecasting high pressure to settle into the plains
(w sfc ridging extending to the NRN mid-atlantic region). The ecmwf
solution would lead to below average temps and mainly dry conditions
(perhaps a chc of light pcpn Wed night-thu). The GFS is much warmer,
as it tracks a weak area of low pressure N of the region wed-wed
night (bringing light rain), W slightly cooler air settling into
the region on thu. For now, went W a model blend from wed-thu and
kept slight chc pops in the forecast from wed-thu am (for -ra).

Forecast highs are in the 50s on wed, cooling to the mid-upper 40s
n low-mid 50s S by thu. Lows mainly in the 30s Wed Thu night.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 630 am est Friday...

another wave of moisture is streaming northeastward along a
stalled frontal boundary across the region. Light rain is fairly
widespread across all terminals with the exception of sby where
drier low level air resides. Ceilings are largelyVFR this
morning with some restrictions MVFR noted across the
southwestern cwa. Rain will continue into the afternoon hours
before being relegated to southern terminals (ecg) this
afternoon. Short-lived visibility reductions are possible in
heavier pockets of rain through early afternoon. Did include a
tempo group at ecg to cover the relatively higher potential for
visibility reduction there this afternoon. Winds will remain out
of the northeast through the period, generally AOB 10 knots.

Cigs improve this evening but another slug of moisture will
approach the region late in the forecast period.

Outlook... MVFR ifr conditions in rain, drizzle and fog
continue Fri night and Sat as a series of impulses move along
the stalled frontal boundary. The boundary moves north as a
warm front late Sat keeping unsettled wx conditions into sun
morning. A cold front moves across the area sun.

Marine
As of 350 am est Friday...

still fairly benign over the marine area with seas of only 2-3
ft and bay waves 1-2 ft. Will see some increase in winds later
this morning as sfc high pressure to the N sags south into the
area. Have speeds increasing to 10~15 kt, and 15-20 kt for the
southern coastal waters. With nne flow will have to watch to see
if seas respond and try to build to 5 ft S of CAPE charles
light, but current thinking is that the stronger winds will be
short-lived. The sfc high builds into the waters this
aftn evening so winds should diminish to only 5-10 kt from the
ne. On sat, the sfc high gradually retreats to the ne, as the
frontal boundary to the south begins to lift back N as a warm
front Sat night. Winds will veer to the SE Sat night then to the
sw and increase on Sun as a stronger cold front approaches from
the west. SCA conditions appear likely for all zones Sun and
sun night (sw winds shifting to the W sustained to 20 kt with
gusts to around 30 kt). A period of gales will be possible over
the northern coastal waters Sun night into Monday. The offshore
flow will keep seas from building much above 5-6 ft. Diminishing
winds seas later Mon and Mon night.

Hydrology
Noting richmond westham rising faster than anticipated this eve. Latest
update has the level of rise slowing then leveling off overnight but not
reaching flood stage until Fri eve. Held off on a warning ATTM given the
updated forecast. Other main stem rivers will see rises given the forecasted
rainfall over the next few days. Went ahead and added a blurb about this in
the hwo.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Rhr
short term... Rhr
long term... Eri
aviation... Rhr
marine... Lkb
hydrology... Mpr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi61 min W 1 G 1.9 42°F 40°F1026.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi61 min W 1.9 G 2.9
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi73 min Calm 43°F 1027 hPa41°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi55 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 44°F 40°F1026.2 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi61 min NNW 4.1 G 6 46°F 41°F1026 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi55 min NNE 8 G 8.9 1027 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi55 min ENE 6 G 7 44°F 45°F1026.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi61 min N 8.9 G 9.9 44°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi55 min NE 9.9 G 11 44°F 1026.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi55 min Calm G 2.9 44°F 42°F1026.8 hPa
44072 48 mi53 min 43°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi48 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy42°F41°F100%1027.1 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi68 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F42°F97%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3SW4W3S5CalmSW3CalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3SE3CalmCalm
1 day agoE5NE7NE6E7N4NE5NE3N4NE3N3NW4NW3NW6E4W3W5CalmW3CalmS4S4SW4SW4S4
2 days agoN8NW9
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N8N9N6N6N6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:44 AM EST     2.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:25 AM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:07 PM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:49 PM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.622.11.91.40.90.3-0.2-0.5-0.4-00.61.31.82.121.61.10.5-0-0.4-0.4-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:53 AM EST     2.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:33 AM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:16 PM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:57 PM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.51.92.11.91.50.90.3-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.10.51.21.82.121.71.20.60.1-0.3-0.4-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.