Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:42PM Saturday June 24, 2017 1:27 AM EDT (05:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1032 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
.gale warning in effect until 8 am edt Saturday...
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Saturday through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms late this evening, then showers likely with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt... Diminishing to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. The remnants of cindy will track over the area tonight. A weak secondary front will cross Sunday before high pressure returns early next week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, VA
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location: 37.83, -78.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240138
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
938 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches the region from the northwest tonight.

The remnants of tropical depression cindy will cross the region
with the cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls farther
south off the carolinas Sunday and Monday.

Near term through Saturday morning
Latest msas has the bermuda high off the coast with the remnant
low of cindy moving NE from eastern ky. Latest data continues to
track this low NE across NRN va md late tonight then move quickly
ne into new england by Sat afternoon. Not real impressed with the
prospects for heavy rain with this feature as even the high res
data suggests all the best forcing and moisture is along and north
of the track. Akq fa left in a warm and humid airmass with only sct
pcpn. Thus, adjusted grids a bit with the emphasis of highest pops
(low end likely) across northern most zones from about 10z-15z. Chc
pops farther south. Kept thunder chcs in across northern most zones
(closest to the track) but lowered to slght chc across central sections
expecting any convection to be elevated. Dry across the SE through
about 12z with only slght chc pops Sat morning there. QPF under one
quarter inch for the most part. Decent low level jet keeps it breezy
at times with SW winds avgg 10-20 mph. Lows in the 70s.

Short term Saturday afternoon through Sunday
Overall trend of 12z suite has been towards a more progressive
solution with the front and frontal wave (remnants of td).

Behind this feature, models are in good agreement with shearing
the precip apart Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough
over the midwest will slowly dig south and help to push the
front east across the area... As the bermuda high also retreats
to the east. Maintained 40-60% rain chances over the coastal
plain during this period for the afternoon and evening... And
into the overnight hours Sunday morning, as sct convection
develops as the front gets hung up across the SE coast into the
carolinas Sat afternoon and evening. Warm and muggy yet again
with highs Saturday generally in the upper 80s to around 90.

Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the
front for Sat night and Sunday, bringing a pleasant end to the
weekend wx-wise. Lows Saturday night in the low- mid 60s far
nw, upper 60s inland, lower 70s se. Dewpoints lower 60s NW to
lower 70s se. Lingering spotty convection along the albemarle
sound will come to an end Sunday morning with the rest of the
area remaining dry. A much more comfortable afternoon and
evening Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s beaches),
and dewpoints in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s se. Comfortable
sleeping weather Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s NW to
upper 60s se.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Long term period will feature generally dry wx with slightly below
normal temps on avg. For Sun night mon, aforementioned cold front
pushes farther offshore leading to light NW flow and decreasing
clouds. After low temps in the 60s Sun night, expect high temps in
the low mid 80s mon. Another cold front crosses the area Mon night,
but the FROPA should be dry due to a lack of moisture. Cooler temps
then for Tue with highs only in the mid upr 70s most areas. Sfc high
pres builds directly over the area Tue night Wed behind a mid-level
trough pushing offshore. Dry again for Thu as the high slides
offshore allowing for S SW to develop across the mid atlc and temps
to MAX out in the mid 80s.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions to start the forecast period as bermuda high
pressure has prevented any convection from developing today.

Gusty SW winds at 15-20 kts continue due to a fairly decent low
level jet. In fact, data suggests a few hours of llws at sby
after midnight.

The remnant circulation of cindy is progged to track across
northern va late tonight and Sat morning with a trailing cold
front crossing the area during the day. Latest data suggests the
best support and steadiest pcpn with this feature falls north
of the track leaving akq fa in a warm and hunmid airmass with
only sct shwrs. Thus, went ahead with vcsh both at ric sby
between 10-13z for now. Although some elevated convection is
possible at this time, kept thunder out of the forecast.

The cold front progged to settle across sern va NE nc sat
afternoon. Models suggest sct convection develops along it but
not widespread enough to include at any one TAF site attm.

Elected to go with a bkn CU deck around 5k ft.

Outlook:VFR conditions expected early next week as high pressure
builds back into the region.

Marine
No significant changes to the marine forecast this evening. Sca
hazards continue as planned for tonight into Sat as the pres
gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect
winds to incrase later tonight to mainly 15-20 kt over all
waterst, gusting up to 25-30 kt over the ocean where seas will
increase to 5-7 ft out 20 nm. Winds decrease as the front slides
through the area Sat afternoon, so all headlines will end
during the day sat, with the last ones being the northern cstl
waters for seas around 5 ft. Little in the way of CAA behind
the front, so anticipate winds mainly AOB 10 kt on Sun and mon,
with 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl waters.

Another cold front crosses the region Mon night, but again caa
is weak following the front so expected sub-sca conditions. Sfc
high pres returns for the middle of next week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Saturday for anz633-
635>638-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Saturday for anz632-634-
654.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Saturday for anz630-631.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Saturday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mam
long term... Mas
aviation... Mpr
marine... Mas jao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi57 min SSW 1.9 83°F 1009 hPa72°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 93 mi27 min S 14 G 18 82°F 83°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 98 mi39 min SW 16 G 19

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA22 mi32 minno data miFair84°F71°F66%1006.1 hPa
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA22 mi34 minS 1110.00 miLight Rain81°F70°F69%1004.8 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SW6S5S10S8S7S9S12S13S11S10SW6SW4SW5S11S13SW10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS6S3S3CalmS8SW5SW4S7SW3S6SW6SW7SW7SW7S7S6S5S4SW4S6Calm
2 days agoS4S3CalmS5S6S6S7S6S6SE6S654Calm3S5S5S9SW6SW11S5SW5SW4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:00 AM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:50 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.51.73.144.44.13.42.61.91.20.60.1-0.10.41.72.83.53.73.22.51.81.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:59 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:45 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.61.83.24.14.44.13.42.61.81.10.5-0-0.10.51.82.93.63.73.32.61.81.10.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.