Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:34PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:26 PM EDT (02:26 UTC) Moonrise 5:59AMMoonset 6:13PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 854 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms...then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 854 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will push north of the mid atlantic tonight. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front, and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, VA
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location: 37.83, -78.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 272346
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
746 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the
region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High pressure builds
in from the north on Wednesday. The high retreats to the
northeast on Thursday as the next system approaches from the
west.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
Latest analysis indicating main area of sfc low pressure
centered over the lower oh valley, with a weak sfc trough noted
to the lee of the appalachians near cho. Some weak ridging aloft
has generally limited showers/tstms east of the mtns so far,
while coverage of showers and storms is much greater across
tn/ky/wv. Other than a few remaining spotty light
showers/sprinkles exiting the coast, conditions look to stay
mainly dry through late aftn. With the weak sfc trough progged
to shift ene through northern va this evening, and some minimal
ml capes around 500 j/kg may see a few isolated showers/tstms
move across interior portions of the CWA so will maintain ~20%
pops through 9 pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy and warm with
temperatures mainly holding in the 70s and slowly falling into
the 60s by late evening.

Upper level ridging begins to break down later tonight... As the
mid/upper level trough currently centered over southeast
mo/southern il pushes east overnight. After a period of mainly
dry conditions, pops will ramp back up after 04-06z as the front
approaches from the W and mid-upper level heights fall along
with some increase in mid level lapse rates between 06-12z.

Low level instability will be very low, but think there is
enough instability aloft to mention a slight chance for tstms
over roughly the western 1/2 of the CWA after 08z. Will carry
~40% chc pops west of i-95 to 20% to 30% or less farther east
and southeast. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 f. With the moist
boundary layer, GFS is indicating a fair amount of fog, but
given a ssw wind of 5-10 mph and warm temperatures, think this
is overdone and that areas of low clouds are more likely.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/
Upper level trough pushes into the area tue, with a model
consensus pushing the main shortwave energy across southern
va/and eastern nc from 18-00z. Have raised pops to likely (60%)
in the aftn over portions of far southern va and northeast nc
where deepest lift and moisture look to coincide during peak
heating hours. Maintained mainly high chance pops (50%)
elsewhere (except for a small area of likely pops across the nw.

Continued warm w/ highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s (could be
around 80 f if enough sunshine develops). There will be some
potential for a few stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed
and directional shear increases and sfc dew pts will be around
60f. Overall not looking like widespread severe wx as there is
still some question as to how much storm organization there will
be as latest models are hinting at a lot of clouds and an
earlier arrival of precip by late morning. SPC has area in
marginal risk for severe wx and this seems about right given the
current parameters depicted in the models. Overall, highest
shear values look to reside over nc.

Will linger the chance pops through the early evening W and to
around midnight along the coast. Drying after midnight with
lows mainly 50-55 f. Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed after some
early clouds (especially south) as drier air moves in from the
n. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs
60-65f near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well
inland. Upper ridge axis quickly moves back into the region by
thu, allowing return of mid/high clouds during the day. With
fairly low mixing and overrunning clouds, expect a cooler day
with highs mainly ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Kept it dry through 22z despite the increase in clouds.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
Good chc for showers and possible tstms later Thu night into
early Sat morning, as low pressure and another associated cold
front approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high
pressure returns for Sat aftn thru Sun night. Yet another system
may approach fm the west late mon.

Highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s fri, in the 60s to near 70
sat, in the mid 60s to lower 70s sun, and in the 60s to near 70
mon. Lows in the 40s Thu night, in the upper 40s to mid 50s fri
night, in the 40s Sat night, and in the mid 40s to near 50 sun
night.

Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/
Vfr conditions expected for all the TAF sites through midnight
and into the early morning. Some patchy fog could develop for
sby/phf/ric during the early morning as low level moisture
continues to increase from the southwest. Some early morning
light rain is also possible especially for western portions of
the CWA but is not expected to be widespread enough to include
in the tafs. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible during the day on Tuesday, with the potential for a few
storms to be severe Tuesday late afternoon and evening.

Outlook: unsettled weather conditions will continue into Tuesday
night due to the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Sub-
vfr conditions will be possible once again Wednesday morning due
to low ceilings and the potential for fog. Dry/vfr conditions
return on Wednesday as winds shift to the north. The next storm
system is expected to approach the area Friday bringing the next
chance of adverse aviation conditions.

Marine
No headlines in the short term tonight thru wed. Late this aftn,
high pressure was well off the mid atlc coast while low pressure
was cntrd over SRN il/extrm ERN ky. The low and its associated
cold front will approach fm the west tonight into Tue morning,
then move acrs the area and off the coast late tue/tue night.

Ssw winds generally 10 to 15 kt will continue tonight into tue
evening, then become NW then N Tue night into Wed morning behind
the front. N winds 10 to 15 kt during wed, as high pressure
starts to build in fm the n. Do not expect SCA conditions to be
met thru wed. High pressure will continue to build in fm the n
wed night into Thu morning, then slides out to sea Thu aftn into
thu night. Nne winds 15 kt or less Wed night, then NE 5 to 15 kt
thu aftn. E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming SE Thu night.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb/lkb
long term... Tmg
aviation... Ajb/jef
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi57 min SSE 1 68°F 1015 hPa56°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 93 mi27 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 56°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 98 mi39 min SSE 7 G 7

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA22 mi52 minS 410.00 miFair72°F60°F69%1013.9 hPa
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA22 mi34 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F59°F73%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE6N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S7SW7SW9S8S12S11S14
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2 days agoS7CalmCalmS7S7S7S8S8S9S6SW6S6S5S8S8SW4S7S9SE9S10S10S8S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Mon -- 04:37 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:04 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:02 PM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.8233.63.73.32.71.91.30.70.30.10.31.32.53.33.63.42.92.21.50.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
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Mon -- 04:33 AM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.92.13.13.73.73.32.61.91.20.60.200.41.52.73.43.73.42.82.11.40.80.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.