Tangier, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tangier, VA

May 3, 2024 3:43 AM EDT (07:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM
Moonrise 2:38 AM   Moonset 1:55 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 319 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through late tonight - .

Through 7 am - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.

Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 ft.

Tonight - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to around 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft. Patchy light drizzle after midnight.

Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves around 2 ft, building to 3 ft late.

Sat night - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.

Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.

Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.

Mon night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.

Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.

Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.

ANZ600 319 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a backdoor cold front drops through the local waters today, and stalls over the carolinas tonight and Saturday. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tangier, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 030709 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 309 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes into the Maryland eastern shore late tonight, then inland across the remainder of the area on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...

Latest analysis reveals sfc ridge offshore of the coastal Carolinas early this evening. Meanwhile to the north, 1024+mb sfc high pressure is building south from Ontario and Quebec into the northeastern US. This feature is also driving weakening low pressure over eastern New England south and offshore of the northeast coast. Aloft, anomalously strong mid/upper level ridging which allowed for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland today remains in place this evening from the mid-south to the southeast coast, extending north across the mid- Atlantic region.

Mainly quiet weather prevails through the night, with high pressure in place just offshore. Guidance suggests that the surface low to the north dives farther south overnight, with the associated cold front diving across the MD eastern shore after 10z/6am late tonight into Friday morning. Expect winds to back to the NE post-frontal, with an increase in clouds over the Delmarva for the afternoon, reaching eastern VA by mid to late afternoon. This evening's guidance is a bit too aggressive right now given latest regional observations, and do not think fog will be an issue tonight given that we had a day of full sunshine today to mix out much of the remnant moisture from yesterday's light rain. That said, some spotty ground fog will be possible, with the best chances mainly east of US-13 on the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore. Mild early morning lows will be in the mid- upper 50s across the MD eastern shore and lower 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing clouds from NE to SW Friday into Friday night as a cold front drops across the region.

- Rain chances increase mainly west of the bay tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Lighter, intermittent rainfall possible along the coast tomorrow night and into Saturday.

The backdoor front will continue to move SW across the region on Friday. Models have good timing on the front, reaching the VA eastern shore and SE VA Friday morning, the RIC metro around lunch time, then to the southern Piedmont of VA by late afternoon.
Latest CAMs show some pop up showers for areas mainly west of I-95 as the front moves SW. Have therefore included slight chance PoPs for the afternoon in that same general region. Could not completely rule out thunder as the HRRR mean SBCAPE shows 500-1000 J/KG. There will be quite a gradient of temperatures across the area, with Ocean City likely staying in the 50s through the day, while areas in the southern Virginia Piedmont will reach upper 80s for highs. The temperature will likely remain steady or even fall slightly once the front passes your location tomorrow.

Improved moisture return sets up for Friday night and continues into Saturday. Best moisture stays mainly over the Piedmont, and will also be helped by overrunning over top the low level wedge. The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Have generally undercut the NBM highs for Saturday, especially across the far NW. Highs will range from the mid 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties, to lower 80s across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages...

- Additional scattered showers and storms on Sunday and Monday.

- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week.

The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast.
Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower 80s, warmest SE VA/NC NC.

By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected.

We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 6 and 7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 150 AM Friday...

VFR conditions with light winds to begin the 06z TAF period, with VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the night. A backdoor cold front dives southwest across the Maryland Eastern Shore towards sunrise this morning, allowing winds to turn NE, with MVFR conditions on the eastern shore tomorrow, especially east of KSBY to KOXB. The front will continue to slowly move SW today, perhaps reaching the other terminals by 18-20z. Some scattered showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm will be possible at KRIC and points west tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Flight restrictions (primarily low CIGs ) are expected to spread to the other terminals starting late this evening and last into Saturday.

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday. A series of systems will cross the region, with chances for rain/storms each day. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, and for the Ocean N of Parramore Island for today behind a backdoor cold front.

-Winds diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by lat Saturday/Saturday night.

Still rather quiet across the waters early this morning with SSW winds of 10-15 kt or less and seas 2-3 ft N/1-2 ft S, with waves in the Bay and rivers 1-2 ft (or less). The wind has shifted to the NNE at buoy 44009 and into the Ocean zone from the MD/DE border south towards Chincoteague. There may be a few hrs worth of marine fog toward sunrise in these northern Atlantic coastal waters before the winds increase, but do not anticipate this being enough for a Marine Dense Fog.

Otherwise, E/NE winds increase abruptly later this morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front with pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb/6 hr. E-NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt, but will likely over- perform at least across the northern coastal waters so have added the Ocean zones N of Parramore to a Small Craft Advisory through 4pm this aftn (with winds ~20kt gusting to 25 to near 30 kt), and seas of 4-5 ft. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. In the Bay/James, SCA headlines remain in effect from later this morning/aftn through 1 AM Sat morning. On the ocean S of Parramore, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt with seas building to ~4ft. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor the trends later this morning As of now, will keep these zones out of any headlines. Easterly winds subside some by Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound.

The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

Tidal departures increase later today in response to the winds turning onshore from the E or ENE. May consider a statement for the lower Bay/lower James and for the upper Bay across the northern Neck and perhaps Dorchester MD for the tide cycle this evening/tonight depending on how the water levels respond.
Additional tidal flooding, mainly to minor flood thresholds appears likely by later Sat through Sunday across the upper Bay as winds become more SE to S. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-652.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 15 mi50 min WSW 7.8G12 66°F 67°F1 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi56 min WSW 8.9G9.9 71°F 71°F29.94
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 19 mi50 min WSW 12G14 67°F 66°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi56 min S 11G13 29.99
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 26 mi56 min WSW 4.1G8.9
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 28 mi56 min WSW 7G8 71°F 73°F29.94
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 33 mi56 min WSW 4.1G6 68°F 73°F29.93
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi56 min N 1.9G2.9 71°F 64°F29.93
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 39 mi74 min 0 67°F 29.9862°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi56 min S 18G20 74°F 29.94
44072 44 mi50 min SW 12G14 67°F 1 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 45 mi56 min SSW 9.9G13 70°F 66°F29.95
44089 48 mi48 min 59°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 48 mi56 min SW 4.1G5.1 66°F 64°F29.99


Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA 12 sm28 minSSW 0810 smClear68°F66°F94%29.94
KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD 24 sm50 minWSW 0510 smClear70°F63°F78%29.93
Link to 5 minute data for KNUI


Wind History from NUI
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   
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Fleet Point
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Fri -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:58 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:01 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
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0.4
1
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0.2
2
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0.1
3
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0.1
4
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0.3
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0.7
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1
8
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1.1
9
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1.1
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1
11
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0.8
12
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0.5
1
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0.3
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0.1
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0.1
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0.1
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0.3
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0.6
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0.9
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1.1
9
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1.1
10
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1.1
11
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0.9



Tide / Current for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
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Fri -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:44 AM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:21 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:18 PM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
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0.6
1
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0.3
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0.1
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0.8
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1.1
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1.3
9
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1.3
10
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1.2
11
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1
12
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0.7
1
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0.4
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0.1
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0.1
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0.3
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0.9
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1.2
9
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1.3
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1.3
11
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1.1




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