Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 11:05 PM   Moonset 7:12 AM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1003 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Overnight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft after midnight. Tue - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wed - NW winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Thu - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Thu night - SE winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.

ANZ600 1003 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast tonight, resulting in southeast then south winds across the area. The high then becomes anchored off the southeast coast from Sunday through Tuesday, with a weak cold front crossing the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 280125 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 925 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure offshore moves south early next week with a ridge building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are expected next week. A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. High pressure returns by Wednesday. Precipitation chances increase late next week into next weekend as another cold front approaches the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 920 PM EDT Saturday...

~1032mb high pressure remains centered offshore of Long Island/Cape Cod this evening, with ridging extending SW into the coastal Carolinas. A warm front also extends from the Great Lakes region southeastward into the central VA vicinity. Temps are generally in the low 60s for the srn half of the CWA and in the mid-upper 50s for the nrn half. Far NW portions of the FA remain socked under lower cloud cover and, thus, temps remain in the lower 50s. With the earlier rain, even noting some areas of reduced visibility from patchy fog/mist across Louisa County.
Expect this to be very transient, however. Otherwise, earlier shower activity has diminished and satellite shows skies have been gradually clearing. Continued clearing is expected overnight with low temps ranging through the 50s as winds become S-SSW with the warm front crossing the area
Also
cannot rule out a brief shower on the MD Eastern Shore after 9z/5 AM as a very weak perturbation clips the NE half of the FA.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

A ridge builds over the area early next week with a significant warmup expected as winds become SW. Dry with (slowly) increasing humidity. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sun with upper 80s in most areas on Mon/Tue. Guidance has come up a couple of degrees with respect to high temperatures early next week, and a few 90F readings are likely on both Mon and Tue (now the NBM 50th percentile shows 90F at RIC on Mon). Lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s Sun and Mon night. A weak cold front slowly approaches from the west on Tue, with isolated to widely scattered showers/tstms initially developing to our west during the aftn. Isolated convection potentially moves across the area during the evening through the first part of Tue night before weakening. Will hold PoPs no higher than 30% given the lack of coverage and the fact that some of the models don't have any QPF in the FA from Tue-Tue night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The ridge lingers over the E CONUS through much of the rest of next week. At the surface, weak high pressure settles to our NE on Wed/Thu in the wake of the weak front, with mainly warm/dry wx expected (although it will be a bit cooler near the coast on both days with the flow becoming onshore). Forecast highs are in the low- mid 80s inland with 70s closer to the coast. Precipitation chances increase late next week through at least Sat as the upper ridge breaks down and a shortwave tracks from the upper Midwest to srn Ontario/Quebec. Several shortwaves move through the area during this time, which will result in multiple chances for showers/storms.
However, global models disagree with timing for each of these subtle features. Also, another cold front may cross the area next weekend, and there's quite a bit of uncertainty regarding if/when it does so.
As such, have maintained NBM PoPs (which gives 30-40% PoPs on both Fri/Sat...highest during the aftn/evening). Highs mainly in the 80s on Fri with a slight cool down possible by next weekend.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 735 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/28 TAF period. BKN-OVC cloud deck w/ CIGS 7000-9000 ft AGL persists this evening over the area, though it should begin to gradually thin over the next several hrs. S winds of 5-10 kt are expected tonight, shifting to SSW/SW ~10 kt Sun morning and aftn. Could become a tad gusty (20 kt) at ORF around sunrise Sun. Otherwise, quiet/good flying wx expected Sun aftn w/ perhaps some FEW-SCT CU (CIGs ~5000 ft).

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from Sun through at least Tue AM.

MARINE
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

Late this aftn, strong high pressure was centered just off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Winds were SE 5-15 kt over the waters, with a few gusts up to 20 kt. Seas were 3-4 ft and waves were 1-3 ft.

SE winds 5-15 kt will become S tonight, as high pressure shifts farther S to off the Mid Atlc coast. The high will then drift to off the SE coast for Sun through Tue. With this movement, winds become S or SW (still at 5-15 kt) through the period. During this period, seas will be 2-4 ft and waves 1-2 ft. A front will drop across the waters late Tue night into Wed, with winds turning to the W then NNW. Winds will then turn back to the E or SE for Wed evening into Thu.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Great Wicomico River Light
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Sat -- 02:42 AM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:09 PM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Glebe Point
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Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:50 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:26 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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