Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 5:34 PM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1016 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of today - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft this afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Tonight - S winds 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Showers likely until early morning, then a chance of showers late. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Fri - W winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - NW winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 1016 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure will be centered well offshore today, as a weakening cold front approaches from the ohio valley. That front stalls just north of the area tonight and Tuesday, with a series of low pressure systems passing by, mainly to the north through Wednesday. A stronger cold front is expected to cross the region Friday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 061843 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 243 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions are expected through the week. Expect hot and humid conditions as well as daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will also be multiple chances for severe weather, especially mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1015 AM EDT Monday...

Late this morning, a frontal boundary was located well NW of the CWA Very mild and humid conditions under a mostly cloudy or cloudy sky were prevailing across the region. Temps were ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Latest radar showed sctd showers moving off the coast.

Strong shortwave energy will move through the area later this aftn through this evening, leading to formation of showers and tstms. Continued SSW flow at the sfc will result in warmer high temps across the entire region, and plentiful low level moisture.
Despite partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions, temps will rise into the lower 80s along and E of I-95, and upper 70s to the W and on the Eastern Shore, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. The latest CAMS show showers and tstms moving into wrn portions of the area between 3-6 pm, then moving ewrd into ern portions of the region between 6-10 pm.

Given the moisture profile (PWATs 1.5"-2.0"), heavy rain will be a good bet in heavier showers or storms. This, combined with portions of the area receiving 1-2" of rain in the last couple of days, has justified placement of a marginal ERO over most of VA (W of the Bay) and inland NE NC. There will be no short supply of instability this aftn into this evening, with mean HRRR MLCAPE indicating widespread 1000-1500 J/Kg. Thus, a few storms may become strong to severe. However, a lack of shear and meager mid-level lapse rates will limit the threat to isolated damaging winds. The area with the best chance for stronger storms will be in the SE and the peninsulas where instability will be higher and low-level lapse rates look to approach 8.5 C/km. Showers/storms will taper off or end after midnight tonight, lingering the longest over the Eastern Shore. Mild again tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues through the mid-week period with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms

- Will likely have daily chances for strong to severe storms Tues- Thurs

Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a varying flow aloft plus a lee trough, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances Tues/Wed. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Increasingly warm conditions are expected with highs generally in the low-mid 80s on Tues and upper 80s to around 90 on Wed. Summer-like heat and humidity will ensure presence of instability. A ridge briefly builds just to the W of the region on Tues, placing the local area in NW flow aloft. There does look to be increasing shear, so cannot rule out severe weather. The SPC has placed areas W of the bay in a marginal risk for Tues. The flow aloft then turns back to the SW Wed and strengthens, which will allow shear to continue to grow. Thus, there is also a marginal risk on Wed. A cold front will move towards the region Thurs as flow aloft further strengthens ahead of a trough. Ahead of the front, (quasi) linear convection is likely to pass through the FA. While there is still some uncertainty, Thurs has the potential for the highest coverage of severe storms this week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front and upper trough will push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing more showers and possibly tstms.
Temps will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid-upper 70s. The weekend looks to be considerably drier, but will keep a slight chance of afternoon showers in the forecast for now. Dry air also means lower humidity with dewpoints dropping into the 40s-50s. Temps will be much cooler this weekend. Highs will be in the low 70s Sat and low-mid 70s on Sun.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

MVFR to VFR CIGs were prevailing at the TAF sites this aftn, with VCSH mentioned in all TAF sites expect SBY until 20-21z.
Sctd showers and tstms will affect all TAF sites from later this aftn through this evening. Heavy rain may impact VSBYs at times, with mainly VFR or MVFR CIGs . Winds will be mainly SSW 5-10 kt this aftn into Tue aftn, with a few higher gusts possible in any stronger storms through this evening. CIGs will become lower MVFR or IFR tonight into Tue morning, then improve to mainly VFR by Tue aftn.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Tue night through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Sfc high pressure (~1025mb) is centered well off the coast of New England/ SE of Nova Scotia early this morning with yesterday's frontal boundary now N of the local waters. The wind is from the S at 10-15 kt, with seas are ~3 ft, and waves 1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay. Overall, a summerlike pattern will prevail through Wed, with a SSE to SW wind averaging ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub- SCA. SW winds look to increase a bit Thursday in advance of an approaching cold front, and could reach SCA by Friday/Friday night as winds turn NW behind the front as some CAA spreads over the region. The models still differ quite a bit with timing and the position/evolution of the storm track Fri into Sat so the forecast remains uncertain during this period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 630 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- All Coastal Flood Advisories have now ended.

SSE winds and a higher astronomical tide last evening/early this morning has allowed low-end minor flooding to be realized at Lewisetta, Crisfield, Bishop's Head, and Cambridge. As for currents at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay over the next 24 hrs, it will generally be neutral or slightly favoring ebbing per CBOFS output and latest obs. As such, expect tidal departures to drop off by a few tenths of a foot across the mid/upper Bay with no additional flooding later today (aside from localized nuisance flooding). Some nuisance to localized low- end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests the high tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit more in the way of low-end minor flooding over the mid/upper Bay (mainly due to astronomical tides climbing slightly by late this week as we approach the new moon phase).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Guard Shore
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Mon -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:29 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:06 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:53 PM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesconessex Creek
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Mon -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:09 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:23 PM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:33 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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