Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Heathsville, VA
May 12, 2024 10:14 PM EDT (02:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 8:33 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 945 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Overnight - E winds 5 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves around 1 foot.
Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Wed - SW winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 945 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
prevailing sub-advisory conditions are then expected through Monday. A low pressure system crosses the area from Tuesday through early Wednesday, bringing the potential for a period of elevated south winds.
prevailing sub-advisory conditions are then expected through Monday. A low pressure system crosses the area from Tuesday through early Wednesday, bringing the potential for a period of elevated south winds.
FXUS61 KAKQ 130125 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 925 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers are possible for the Eastern Shore this afternoon as an upper trough exits the region. Dry and warmer to start the work week before another round of showers and storms returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 925 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Drying out tonight with some patchy fog possible on the eastern shore.
- Warmer and remaining dry for Monday.
An upper level trough is pushing off the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening. Mostly clear aside from some scattered lingering clouds over the MD Eastern Shore. Drying out overnight with a clearing sky along the MD coast behind the departing trough.
Some patchy fog will again be possible late, this time on the eastern shore and perhaps also over the peninsulas of eastern VA and the interior tidewater. Early morning low temps fall into the mid to upper 40s inland (some lower 40s possible for the NW Piedmont), and the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.
High pressure over the coastal plain slides offshore on Monday, bringing warmer temperatures and dry conditions (briefly) back to the region. High temps climb back into the 70s to low 80s.
Clouds start to increase by late in the afternoon from the SW ahead of our next system.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing clouds Monday night, with showers developing late over inland areas.
- Next system moves in Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms.
Widespread severe weather is not expected.
- Showers and a few storms linger on Wednesday before moving offshore overnight.
Rain chances quickly ramp up after midnight Monday night/early Tuesday and into the day on Tuesday. A closed upper low over the mid-Missouri Valley translates east into the Western TN Valley Monday night, with the system slowing and lingering across the TN Valley through midweek.
Overrunning moisture pushes into the piedmont region west of RIC in the early morning hours Tuesday, reaching the I-95 corridor by midday, and the coast by mid- afternoon.
Kinematics and relatively weak deep- layer shear would indicate only a modest chance for storms on Tuesday, with the overall severe threat even lower. However, will maintain a thunder chance through the afternoon on Tuesday over SW sections and along the SE coast into later Tuesday evening. QPF through Tue night between 3/4" and 1" of additional rainfall, with locally higher totals possible. Best chances for periods of locally heavy rainfall will be across south central and southeast VA into northeast NC Tue night, where secondary low pressure looks to develop Tuesday aftn, lifting a warm front across the region Tuesday evening. Better area of IVT and PW values AOA 1.5-1.75" (near climo daily maxes) then look to stream NNE across our SE coastal plain Tuesday evening, with showers and storms forecast.
For its part the CSU machine learning probs do show a marginal risk area for its ERO forecast, which has been matched by WPC for day 3 (Tuesday).
Rain briefly tapers off early Wednesday morning, especially across the S/SE, as mid-levels briefly dry out. However, we never really dry out lower levels through this period. This likely portends continued overcast/substantial cloud cover and light rain throughout Wednesday, as the closed low to the west opens up and the surface reflection weakens as it crosses the central/southern Appalachians. Precipitation character remains a bit more stratiform through the day for most. However, chances for storms do increase a bit over NE NC and perhaps into Hampton Roads by afternoon as the weakening upper low approaches. This allows for a period of increased deep-layer shear (25-35 kt)
along with some decent instability (LREF does show 500-750 J/kg of CAPE by afternoon) in the pseudo warm sector across the SE.
As high pressure builds to the north, the weakening surface low crosses the area Wed night, with the positively-tilted upper trough lingering over the area into Thursday. Given this timing, Wednesday night would then feature diminishing rain chances and drier air filtering into the region. Kept highs in the 70s for much of the area on Wednesday, with some lower 80s across the SE coast. Lows Wed night in the 50s to near 60.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms later Friday and Saturday.
High pressure builds in briefly on Thursday but another system approaches on Friday with another chance for scattered showers and storms, though the 12z suite of models is notably slower with returning moisture back into the local area, and have accordingly pushed PoPs a bit lower with this forecast package.
High temps remain in the 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday with low to mid 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows continue around 60 degrees.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 755 PM EDT Sunday...
Weak low pressure is pushing off the coast as of 00z. VFR with a light NE wind of 5-10kt, and only some SCT but dissipating clouds around 6-8kft at SBY. Weak high pressure builds over the region tonight. The wind will become calm to very light out of the E tonight. Patchy fog is possible late tonight with the best chc at SBY. The current forecast has prevailing IFR vsby at SBY 07-11z, and tempo MVFR vsby at PHF 08-11z. Brief MVFR vsby is possible at ORF and ECG as well. High pressure slides offshore Monday. Sunny and VFR with a SSW wind inland and SE along the coast with speeds generally at or below 10kt.
Low pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday bringing showers, periodic flight restrictions, and possibly a few tstms.
Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday.
MARINE
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
-Sub-SCA conditions expected through Monday.
-Additional SCAs possible ahead of a low pressure system Monday night and more likely Tuesday into Wednesday morning
A boundary was draped across the MD Eastern Shore and a weak area of low pressure was just offshore as of afternoon sfc analysis, leading to slight variation in wind direction across local waters today.
Latest obs reflect northerly winds in the bay and rivers at 10-15kt, while winds over coastal waters are more northeasterly at ~10kt.
Latest buoy obs show seas of 3-4ft and waves 2-3ft. As the boundary moves away from the local area, high pressure will build behind it before sliding offshore tomorrow. Overnight, onshore winds will be 5- 10kt. Winds then increase out of the S-SE on Monday as that high moves well offshore. In fact, a brief period of low-end SCA conditions is possible Monday night, and local wind probs are now showing a 50-75% chc of sustained 18kt winds on the Ches Bay between 7 PM Mon-1 AM Tue. However, will hold off on issuing SCAs for now given marginal and relatively brief nature of it.
S winds briefly diminish to 10-15kt Tuesday AM. However, a low pressure system will approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area from west to east late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. The pressure gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening, allowing S winds to increase to 20-25kt (and remain elevated through most of Tue night). Local wind probs show an 80- 100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night. Probs of sustained 25kt winds are at 20-45% (highest in southern coastal waters). In addition, seas build to 5ft ahead of the mid-week system. Sub-SCA conditions are expected behind the system Wed night-Thursday (w/ N winds near 15kt and seas subsiding to ~4ft). Waves on the bay will be 1-3ft through most of the period (although 4ft waves are possible Tue night).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 925 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers are possible for the Eastern Shore this afternoon as an upper trough exits the region. Dry and warmer to start the work week before another round of showers and storms returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 925 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Drying out tonight with some patchy fog possible on the eastern shore.
- Warmer and remaining dry for Monday.
An upper level trough is pushing off the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening. Mostly clear aside from some scattered lingering clouds over the MD Eastern Shore. Drying out overnight with a clearing sky along the MD coast behind the departing trough.
Some patchy fog will again be possible late, this time on the eastern shore and perhaps also over the peninsulas of eastern VA and the interior tidewater. Early morning low temps fall into the mid to upper 40s inland (some lower 40s possible for the NW Piedmont), and the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.
High pressure over the coastal plain slides offshore on Monday, bringing warmer temperatures and dry conditions (briefly) back to the region. High temps climb back into the 70s to low 80s.
Clouds start to increase by late in the afternoon from the SW ahead of our next system.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing clouds Monday night, with showers developing late over inland areas.
- Next system moves in Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms.
Widespread severe weather is not expected.
- Showers and a few storms linger on Wednesday before moving offshore overnight.
Rain chances quickly ramp up after midnight Monday night/early Tuesday and into the day on Tuesday. A closed upper low over the mid-Missouri Valley translates east into the Western TN Valley Monday night, with the system slowing and lingering across the TN Valley through midweek.
Overrunning moisture pushes into the piedmont region west of RIC in the early morning hours Tuesday, reaching the I-95 corridor by midday, and the coast by mid- afternoon.
Kinematics and relatively weak deep- layer shear would indicate only a modest chance for storms on Tuesday, with the overall severe threat even lower. However, will maintain a thunder chance through the afternoon on Tuesday over SW sections and along the SE coast into later Tuesday evening. QPF through Tue night between 3/4" and 1" of additional rainfall, with locally higher totals possible. Best chances for periods of locally heavy rainfall will be across south central and southeast VA into northeast NC Tue night, where secondary low pressure looks to develop Tuesday aftn, lifting a warm front across the region Tuesday evening. Better area of IVT and PW values AOA 1.5-1.75" (near climo daily maxes) then look to stream NNE across our SE coastal plain Tuesday evening, with showers and storms forecast.
For its part the CSU machine learning probs do show a marginal risk area for its ERO forecast, which has been matched by WPC for day 3 (Tuesday).
Rain briefly tapers off early Wednesday morning, especially across the S/SE, as mid-levels briefly dry out. However, we never really dry out lower levels through this period. This likely portends continued overcast/substantial cloud cover and light rain throughout Wednesday, as the closed low to the west opens up and the surface reflection weakens as it crosses the central/southern Appalachians. Precipitation character remains a bit more stratiform through the day for most. However, chances for storms do increase a bit over NE NC and perhaps into Hampton Roads by afternoon as the weakening upper low approaches. This allows for a period of increased deep-layer shear (25-35 kt)
along with some decent instability (LREF does show 500-750 J/kg of CAPE by afternoon) in the pseudo warm sector across the SE.
As high pressure builds to the north, the weakening surface low crosses the area Wed night, with the positively-tilted upper trough lingering over the area into Thursday. Given this timing, Wednesday night would then feature diminishing rain chances and drier air filtering into the region. Kept highs in the 70s for much of the area on Wednesday, with some lower 80s across the SE coast. Lows Wed night in the 50s to near 60.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms later Friday and Saturday.
High pressure builds in briefly on Thursday but another system approaches on Friday with another chance for scattered showers and storms, though the 12z suite of models is notably slower with returning moisture back into the local area, and have accordingly pushed PoPs a bit lower with this forecast package.
High temps remain in the 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday with low to mid 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows continue around 60 degrees.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 755 PM EDT Sunday...
Weak low pressure is pushing off the coast as of 00z. VFR with a light NE wind of 5-10kt, and only some SCT but dissipating clouds around 6-8kft at SBY. Weak high pressure builds over the region tonight. The wind will become calm to very light out of the E tonight. Patchy fog is possible late tonight with the best chc at SBY. The current forecast has prevailing IFR vsby at SBY 07-11z, and tempo MVFR vsby at PHF 08-11z. Brief MVFR vsby is possible at ORF and ECG as well. High pressure slides offshore Monday. Sunny and VFR with a SSW wind inland and SE along the coast with speeds generally at or below 10kt.
Low pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday bringing showers, periodic flight restrictions, and possibly a few tstms.
Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday.
MARINE
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
-Sub-SCA conditions expected through Monday.
-Additional SCAs possible ahead of a low pressure system Monday night and more likely Tuesday into Wednesday morning
A boundary was draped across the MD Eastern Shore and a weak area of low pressure was just offshore as of afternoon sfc analysis, leading to slight variation in wind direction across local waters today.
Latest obs reflect northerly winds in the bay and rivers at 10-15kt, while winds over coastal waters are more northeasterly at ~10kt.
Latest buoy obs show seas of 3-4ft and waves 2-3ft. As the boundary moves away from the local area, high pressure will build behind it before sliding offshore tomorrow. Overnight, onshore winds will be 5- 10kt. Winds then increase out of the S-SE on Monday as that high moves well offshore. In fact, a brief period of low-end SCA conditions is possible Monday night, and local wind probs are now showing a 50-75% chc of sustained 18kt winds on the Ches Bay between 7 PM Mon-1 AM Tue. However, will hold off on issuing SCAs for now given marginal and relatively brief nature of it.
S winds briefly diminish to 10-15kt Tuesday AM. However, a low pressure system will approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area from west to east late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. The pressure gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening, allowing S winds to increase to 20-25kt (and remain elevated through most of Tue night). Local wind probs show an 80- 100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night. Probs of sustained 25kt winds are at 20-45% (highest in southern coastal waters). In addition, seas build to 5ft ahead of the mid-week system. Sub-SCA conditions are expected behind the system Wed night-Thursday (w/ N winds near 15kt and seas subsiding to ~4ft). Waves on the bay will be 1-3ft through most of the period (although 4ft waves are possible Tue night).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 11 mi | 56 min | ENE 4.1G | 62°F | 68°F | 29.98 | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 13 mi | 44 min | ENE 5.8G | 59°F | 65°F | 0 ft | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 20 mi | 44 min | ENE 9.7G | 61°F | 67°F | 1 ft | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 22 mi | 56 min | E 2.9G | |||||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 29 mi | 56 min | E 11G | 30.01 | ||||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 31 mi | 56 min | E 8G | 60°F | 65°F | 29.98 | ||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 33 mi | 56 min | NE 5.1G | 59°F | 66°F | 29.97 | ||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 35 mi | 89 min | 0 | 62°F | 29.98 | 52°F | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 38 mi | 56 min | ENE 6G | 60°F | 29.98 | |||
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 40 mi | 56 min | ENE 8.9G | 56°F | 67°F | 29.98 | ||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 43 mi | 56 min | NE 8.9G | 63°F | 68°F | 29.97 | ||
| 44072 | 45 mi | 44 min | E 12G | 59°F | 1 ft | |||
| NCDV2 | 48 mi | 56 min | E 5.1G | 60°F | 67°F | 29.95 | ||
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 49 mi | 44 min | E 7.8G | 61°F | 72°F | |||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 49 mi | 44 min | ENE 7.8G | 57°F | 64°F | 1 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 19 sm | 19 min | E 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 29.99 | |
| KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD | 21 sm | 21 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 52°F | 94% | 29.98 |
Tide / Current for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Glebe Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT 1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 10:56 AM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT 1.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:49 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT 1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 10:56 AM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT 1.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:49 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.1 |
Fleet Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 03:50 AM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT 0.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:26 PM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 03:50 AM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT 0.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:26 PM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.1 |
Wakefield, VA,
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