Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Toronto, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:12PM Saturday February 23, 2019 2:46 PM CST (20:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:06PMMoonset 9:48AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toronto, KS
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location: 37.87, -96     debug


Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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Fxus63 kict 231739
afdict
area forecast discussion
national weather service wichita ks
1139 am cst Sat feb 23 2019

Short term (today through tonight)
issued at 307 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
water vapor imagery shows potent shortwave lifting over far
eastern nm with a surface low quickly deepening over extreme
northeast nm.

Saturated low levels with strong isentropic lift right off of the
surface, has resulted in widespread drizzle and fog. Areas
generally along and west of highway 14 have seen widespread dense
fog overnight and this should continue into the early morning
hours. Main precip type should remain drizzle this morning until
the upper wave starts to directly affect western portions of
forecast area after 13z.

Did add a couple more counties to the blizzard warning and also
added a couple more to the winter weather advisory. This was
initially based on trends from the rap which were later confirmed
by the 00z ecmwf. This also GOES along with the further south
solution being preferred through this event. Even though snow
amounts in the advisory area(including wichita) are generally
less than a inch, feel even a couple hours of snow, combined with
strong winds, will produce sudden reductions in visibility.

Still looking like the bulk of our snow will fall in the 18z-00z
time frame, when the trowal deformation zone lifts across.

Would not be surprised to see some thunder wrapping into the
trowal given the amount of instability above 750mb. Should easily
see snowfall rates in excess of 1" per hour in the heavier band.

Still going with the thinking that the heaviest snow should fall
along and northwest of a great bend to salina line with i-70
obviously being severely impacted. The only limiting factor to
higher snowfall amounts will be the rapid movement of this system
as it wastes no time lifting into northern mo by early this
evening. Still looking at wind speeds sustained around 35 mph over
central ks with gusts easily over 40 mph which will produce
periods of whiteout conditions in the heavier snow bands.

On the warm side of this system, strong southwest winds will
elevate the grassland fire danger over southeast ks and also feel
confident that we will see wind advisory conditions southeast of
the ks turnpike after 18z. Even after the band of snow lifts out,
gusty NW winds should continue into the early evening, especially
for eastern ks.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 307 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
dropped highs Sun a few degrees over central ks where we expect
the more widespread snow cover. Meanwhile, over far southern ks,
temps Sun should be fairly close to normal. Next round of snow
looks to stay well north of ks for Sun night into mon. Meanwhile,
strong zonal flow will remain over most of the CONUS with a series
of impulses tracking over the northern rockies northern plains.

Remains some agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in pushing
through a fairly strong cold front wed. While there could be some
light precip associated with the front, not expecting any
significant winter precip. While confidence is high that below
normal temps will remain through the end of the work week, GFS and
ecmwf disagree on the strength of a cold front for fri.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1134 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
poor aviation conditions will prevail across central kansas
through the afternoon hours with heavy snow and very low
visibilities at times. Meanwhile surface low pressure will race
northeast across the region for today with strong northwest winds
spreading across southern and southeast kansas. Low clouds will
quickly scatter out as the upper level system pulls away from the
region tonight.

Fire weather
Issued at 307 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
main fire weather concern will be southeast kansas this afternoon.

Potent low pressure system will lift across ks today. Strong
southwest and west winds will overspread southeast ks this
afternoon with speeds around 30 mph common with gusts to 40 mph.

These high winds will combine with rh's in the 40-45% range to
elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category.

Once we get past today, fire weather concerns look minimal.

Preliminary point temps pops
Wichita-kict 47 26 45 23 100 10 0 0
hutchinson 40 23 39 20 100 20 0 0
newton 43 26 41 20 100 20 0 0
eldorado 49 27 45 21 100 10 0 0
winfield-kwld 56 26 48 25 90 0 0 0
russell 33 19 29 14 100 20 0 0
great bend 34 20 32 18 100 10 0 0
salina 37 22 31 15 100 40 0 0
mcpherson 39 23 35 17 100 20 0 0
coffeyville 63 30 50 24 100 0 0 0
chanute 58 29 47 21 100 10 0 0
iola 56 28 45 19 100 10 0 0
parsons-kppf 62 29 48 22 100 10 0 0

Ict watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory until midnight cst tonight for ksz053-069>072-
091>096-098>100.

Winter weather advisory until midnight cst tonight for ksz052-
068-082-083.

Blizzard warning until midnight cst tonight for ksz032-033-
047>051-067.

Short term... Rbl
long term... Rbl
aviation... Cdj
fire weather... Rbl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chanute, Chanute Martin Johnson Airport, KS31 mi55 minSSW 22 G 3510.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy60°F44°F56%997.5 hPa

Wind History from CNU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E10E10
G19
E9E10E9E10E7E6E6SE4CalmNE3CalmNE4CalmNE3E7E10E10E9SE9S18
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1 day agoSE10E12E10E9E6NE5NE4NE8E10E8E9E8E5NE5E7E8E9E10E9E9E11E11
G19
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2 days agoSW7W10SW7SW6SW5SW5SW4SW5S3S3E3E3CalmSE3CalmSE6SE7SE6E5E6E7E15
G20
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G22
E12
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wichita, KS (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.