Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Toronto, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:34PM Monday May 20, 2019 3:33 PM CDT (20:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:33PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toronto, KS
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location: 37.87, -96     debug


Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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Fxus63 kict 201730
afdict
area forecast discussion
national weather service wichita ks
1230 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019

Short term (today through Wednesday night)
issued at 402 am cdt Mon may 20 2019
forecast headline (major!): flood flash flood remains high from
this afternoon thru Tue afternoon.

Today-tue:
intense upper-deck cyclone that is crossing desert southwest is
still expected to move slowly E SE across the central southern
rockies tonight then would transition into a strong sharply
negatively tilted trof as it digs across the ok & tx panhandles on
tue. With time the character would induce a nearly stationary E w
oriented surface front draped across north tx to transition into
a warm front that'll lift straight n. The northward progress of
the front continues to be a major factor, primarily from a severe
thunderstorm standpoint. The front should lift as far as central
ks by Tue morning and to the ks nebraska border Tue afternoon. The
front should then pivot as an intense surface cyclone moves e
across northwest ks on tue. There's disagreement among the
short term models on the evolving lower-deck pattern Tue evening
but they come into better agreement Tue night in lifting the low
ne across nebraska Tue night. This would shunt the rich moisture
axis E late Tue night. Until then a deep, very moist airmass would
remain entrenched across the region & with deep-scale ascent
increasing, there will definitely be heavy rains for all areas.

The flash flood watch remains intact in all respects.

Tue night-wed:
dry weather is still slated Tue & Tue evening, but thunderstorms
should return to primarily southeast ks Wed afternoon.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
issued at 402 am cdt Mon may 20 2019
unfortunately we do not look to get into any kind of drying out
period through these days, as the GFS and ECMWF remain consistent
in the mean upper trough remaining anchored over the western
conus, with southwest flow aloft remaining over the plains.

Should see an uptick in activity Thu afternoon into Thu night as
one of the vort lobes lifts across eastern co and eventually into
the northern plains. With pws staying in the 1.5-1.75 range
through these extended periods, it's also not out of the question
to see showers and storms freely develop with afternoon heating,
with any shower or storm being efficient rain producers.

Dewpoints staying in the upper 60s to around 70 will also make for
mugging conditions into the weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1225 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019
low clouds will expand across central kansas this afternoon along
with numerous showers storms. Meanwhile MVFR CIGS will begin to
develop over south central ks and expand into southeast kansas by
tonight. Ifr lifr CIGS will affect much of central south central
ks for late this afternoon into tonight north of warm front with
widespread showers storms.

Hydrology
Issued at 402 am cdt Mon may 20 2019
widespread flooding is still anticipated this afternoon and
especially from tonight into Tue morning.

First wave of elevated convection is expected Mon afternoon, with
another surge of strong theta-e advection along and north of the
warm front bringing another and more significant round of storms
mon night. Pw values by Mon night will be in the 1.75-2.00 inch
range which should result in hourly rainfall rates over an inch
per hour and possibly as high as 2-3 inches per hour. Flash
flooding looks like a good possibility Mon night into Tue morning,
especially across south central ks into the flint hills. With
many rivers already running above normal, and reservoirs
continuing to release water, a strong river response is also
likely which could be an issue through the entire work week.

Current thinking is widespread 3 to 4 inches, with pockets of 6+
inches for those areas that see storms both Mon afternoon and mon
night.

Preliminary point temps pops
Wichita-kict 62 60 75 54 100 100 70 0
hutchinson 60 57 74 51 100 100 60 10
newton 60 58 73 52 100 100 70 0
eldorado 61 60 74 55 100 100 90 10
winfield-kwld 65 62 76 57 100 100 80 0
russell 54 51 70 46 100 100 60 10
great bend 56 53 70 47 100 100 50 10
salina 58 54 73 50 100 100 80 10
mcpherson 58 56 73 50 100 100 70 10
coffeyville 69 66 75 60 90 100 100 10
chanute 66 62 75 59 90 90 100 10
iola 65 61 74 58 90 90 100 10
parsons-kppf 68 64 75 59 90 100 100 10

Ict watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Tuesday afternoon for ksz032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Short term... Eps
long term... Eps
aviation... Cdj
hydrology... Eps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chanute, Chanute Martin Johnson Airport, KS31 mi42 minENE 21 G 341.25 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy55°F51°F87%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from CNU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10W8W8NW5CalmN4NE4N5N3N3NE3E3NE5NE9NE10E8E12
G18
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E13NE12E10
G21
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G34
1 day agoE10SW10S5S5SE4SE6SE6SW8S7NW15
G36
E3CalmSW7SW8SW8SW8W12NW13
G20
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NW11W11
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W11NW8
2 days agoS19
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G27
S13
G21
S9
G18
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G23
S12S16
G28
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G29
W18
G28
3S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wichita, KS (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.