Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toronto, KS
May 4, 2024 11:03 PM CDT (04:03 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:26 AM Moonset 3:31 PM |
Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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FXUS63 KICT 050031 AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 731 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Increasing chances for rain/embedded thunderstorms over far southern and southeast Kansas later tonight through Sunday.
- Severe weather outbreak potential Monday afternoon-night.
- Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Rain with embedded thunderstorm chances will increase from the southwest later tonight, and persist through Sunday, mainly over far southern and southeast Kansas, as an upper trough traverses the Southern Plains. Model trends have continued to shift these rain chances a bit further south each run. The latest HRRR consensus keeps the greatest threat for heavy rainfall from near the KS/OK border of far southeast KS on south into OK. The severe weather threat looks minimal over Kansas given poor lapse rates and marginal instability,
Our attention then turns to the potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms Monday afternoon-night across the region, as a potent/deep shortwave trough and attendant dryline approach from the west, amidst an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across the Central and Southern Plains. The anomalous combination of buoyancy/shear (as highlighted by the NAEFS and EPS) favors severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce "higher-end" severe weather in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
Latest model trends support the greatest threat for discrete supercells (and associated greater threat for higher-end severe weather) across mainly the southern half of KS and into OK, where mid-upper flow is oriented more perpendicular to the dryline. A handful of NAM-GFS-ECMWF point forecast soundings up and down the dryline from mainly the southern half of KS south into OK continue to indicate a potential kinematic and thermodynamic environment similar to some past higher-end and even historic severe weather and tornado events. Further north across mainly the northern half of KS and into NE, storm mode could be rather messy given stronger forcing, and a more meridional component to mid-upper flow, which could tend to limit higher-end severe potential with northward extent. We will continue to monitor these trends in the upper jet placement and alignment.
A another piece of uncertainty in the forecast surrounds the extent of warm/moist sector low clouds throughout the day, owing to rapid low-level quality moisture return. Too much moisture advection would tend to keep low clouds locked in through the day, which would limit insolation and associated peak heating destabilization, especially with northward extent. This scenario is especially highlighted by the NAM and RAP. Not enough instability would temper higher-end severe chances and/or keep these chances further south.
All-in-all, there remains potential for higher-end severe weather across the region Monday afternoon-night in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
We will continue to diagnose the above uncertainty and issue timely forecast updates.
After Monday night, the large-scale synoptic pattern favors mostly quiet and dry weather across the Kansas region through at least the end of next week, with a gradual slight cooling trend through the week. Wednesday afternoon-evening could be interesting severe thunderstorm-wise over extreme southeast Kansas, but latest model trends have pushed the greatest threat further east-southeast.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
VFR conditions are generally expected for all terminals for the first six to eight hours of the TAF period. Clouds, and the chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will become possible after 09Z to 12Z. This will primarily affect KICT and KCNU but the chances at this time are rather low and only warrant a PROB30 for this TAF cycle. KHUT may also get some shower activity but the chances are not high enough to warrant a PROB30 at this time. This activity may bring some MVFR CIGs as well during the morning hours but currently do not expect any terminal to reach IFR for this TAF cycle.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 731 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Increasing chances for rain/embedded thunderstorms over far southern and southeast Kansas later tonight through Sunday.
- Severe weather outbreak potential Monday afternoon-night.
- Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Rain with embedded thunderstorm chances will increase from the southwest later tonight, and persist through Sunday, mainly over far southern and southeast Kansas, as an upper trough traverses the Southern Plains. Model trends have continued to shift these rain chances a bit further south each run. The latest HRRR consensus keeps the greatest threat for heavy rainfall from near the KS/OK border of far southeast KS on south into OK. The severe weather threat looks minimal over Kansas given poor lapse rates and marginal instability,
Our attention then turns to the potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms Monday afternoon-night across the region, as a potent/deep shortwave trough and attendant dryline approach from the west, amidst an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across the Central and Southern Plains. The anomalous combination of buoyancy/shear (as highlighted by the NAEFS and EPS) favors severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce "higher-end" severe weather in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
Latest model trends support the greatest threat for discrete supercells (and associated greater threat for higher-end severe weather) across mainly the southern half of KS and into OK, where mid-upper flow is oriented more perpendicular to the dryline. A handful of NAM-GFS-ECMWF point forecast soundings up and down the dryline from mainly the southern half of KS south into OK continue to indicate a potential kinematic and thermodynamic environment similar to some past higher-end and even historic severe weather and tornado events. Further north across mainly the northern half of KS and into NE, storm mode could be rather messy given stronger forcing, and a more meridional component to mid-upper flow, which could tend to limit higher-end severe potential with northward extent. We will continue to monitor these trends in the upper jet placement and alignment.
A another piece of uncertainty in the forecast surrounds the extent of warm/moist sector low clouds throughout the day, owing to rapid low-level quality moisture return. Too much moisture advection would tend to keep low clouds locked in through the day, which would limit insolation and associated peak heating destabilization, especially with northward extent. This scenario is especially highlighted by the NAM and RAP. Not enough instability would temper higher-end severe chances and/or keep these chances further south.
All-in-all, there remains potential for higher-end severe weather across the region Monday afternoon-night in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
We will continue to diagnose the above uncertainty and issue timely forecast updates.
After Monday night, the large-scale synoptic pattern favors mostly quiet and dry weather across the Kansas region through at least the end of next week, with a gradual slight cooling trend through the week. Wednesday afternoon-evening could be interesting severe thunderstorm-wise over extreme southeast Kansas, but latest model trends have pushed the greatest threat further east-southeast.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
VFR conditions are generally expected for all terminals for the first six to eight hours of the TAF period. Clouds, and the chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will become possible after 09Z to 12Z. This will primarily affect KICT and KCNU but the chances at this time are rather low and only warrant a PROB30 for this TAF cycle. KHUT may also get some shower activity but the chances are not high enough to warrant a PROB30 at this time. This activity may bring some MVFR CIGs as well during the morning hours but currently do not expect any terminal to reach IFR for this TAF cycle.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
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Topeka, KS,
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