Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toronto, KS
May 19, 2024 6:55 PM CDT (23:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:07 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:59 PM Moonset 3:02 AM |
FXUS63 KICT 192256 AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 556 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe storms likely on this afternoon and evening
- Another round of severe storms looks to impact the region on Tuesday
- Additional rounds of storms will continue for Thursday into next weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper jet energy/associated upper level wave quickly approaching southwest Kansas. There is a warm front boundary which extends from western Kansas into central Kansas. Storms are and should begin developing over western Kansas and along this warm front boundary. If a storm can stay latched on this boundary it would have potential to produce higher end severe weather and even a tornado. Additional storms will develop over southwest Kansas and these storms will be in a higher based environment with cold outflows expected and lower tornado potential. The cold pool interaction should cause the storms to congeal quickly and form a line of storms. The line of storms will grow upscale and intensify, especially with the environment of high DCAPE and orthogonal 0-3km bulk shear vector/magnitude supporting good potential for balance on the leading edge of the line storms.
This balance could result in very destructive wind gusts over 80mph, especially for any segment of the line that takes on a bowing structure. In addition, increasing low-level SRH and orthogonal 0- 3km bulk shear vector/magnitude supports a few QLCS tornadoes on leading edge when the line of storms encounters better low level moisture. This activity will continue eastward tonight and could have a trailing/lingering line of storms near the KS/OK border past midnight.
The atmosphere looks more capped during the day on Monday and with no upper level wave expected if anything can go it would be more isolated and generally northwest/north of central Kansas. Model signals continue to suggest another round of severe weather could affect locations mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike for Tuesday afternoon/evening. Stronger than normal upper jet winds and alignment being more orthogonal to the dry line boundary supports some discrete supercell potential along the dry line where all severe weather hazards are in play(a few higher end severe storms are possible in southeast Kansas). Meanwhile the cold front looks to race southeast and quickly overtake the dry line which should cause a line of storms to quickly zipper from northeast Kansas southward into southern Kansas by Tuesday evening.
Wednesday looks to be the one quiet day of the week as surface high pressure builds over Kansas, and drier air spreads southward in the wake of Tuesday's system. The quiet conditions looks to be short- lived as the atmosphere tries to reload and become more active across the region for Thursday into next weekend. Models continue to show upper level flow regime remaining in a southwest-westerly pattern with decent flow aloft, and a couple of upper waves moving across the central plains. The combination of decent wind flow aloft and ample moisture/instability nearby supports more opportunities for severe weather to affect the region.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Severe storms will be the main concern this evening through early tonight. Current area of intense convection across central Kansas along just south of the I-70 corridor with strong winds, hail, very low visibility in heavy rainfall. Next area of severe convection was moving eastward across southwest Kansas and will sweep eastward across central and south central Kansas during the mid-evening hours, capable of damaging winds, hail and low visibility in heavy rainfall. Strong inflow (south to southeast winds) ahead of the convection with strong and variable winds in the wake of the system later this evening.
Some MVFR stratus cigs are expected toward dawn.
KED
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 556 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe storms likely on this afternoon and evening
- Another round of severe storms looks to impact the region on Tuesday
- Additional rounds of storms will continue for Thursday into next weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper jet energy/associated upper level wave quickly approaching southwest Kansas. There is a warm front boundary which extends from western Kansas into central Kansas. Storms are and should begin developing over western Kansas and along this warm front boundary. If a storm can stay latched on this boundary it would have potential to produce higher end severe weather and even a tornado. Additional storms will develop over southwest Kansas and these storms will be in a higher based environment with cold outflows expected and lower tornado potential. The cold pool interaction should cause the storms to congeal quickly and form a line of storms. The line of storms will grow upscale and intensify, especially with the environment of high DCAPE and orthogonal 0-3km bulk shear vector/magnitude supporting good potential for balance on the leading edge of the line storms.
This balance could result in very destructive wind gusts over 80mph, especially for any segment of the line that takes on a bowing structure. In addition, increasing low-level SRH and orthogonal 0- 3km bulk shear vector/magnitude supports a few QLCS tornadoes on leading edge when the line of storms encounters better low level moisture. This activity will continue eastward tonight and could have a trailing/lingering line of storms near the KS/OK border past midnight.
The atmosphere looks more capped during the day on Monday and with no upper level wave expected if anything can go it would be more isolated and generally northwest/north of central Kansas. Model signals continue to suggest another round of severe weather could affect locations mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike for Tuesday afternoon/evening. Stronger than normal upper jet winds and alignment being more orthogonal to the dry line boundary supports some discrete supercell potential along the dry line where all severe weather hazards are in play(a few higher end severe storms are possible in southeast Kansas). Meanwhile the cold front looks to race southeast and quickly overtake the dry line which should cause a line of storms to quickly zipper from northeast Kansas southward into southern Kansas by Tuesday evening.
Wednesday looks to be the one quiet day of the week as surface high pressure builds over Kansas, and drier air spreads southward in the wake of Tuesday's system. The quiet conditions looks to be short- lived as the atmosphere tries to reload and become more active across the region for Thursday into next weekend. Models continue to show upper level flow regime remaining in a southwest-westerly pattern with decent flow aloft, and a couple of upper waves moving across the central plains. The combination of decent wind flow aloft and ample moisture/instability nearby supports more opportunities for severe weather to affect the region.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Severe storms will be the main concern this evening through early tonight. Current area of intense convection across central Kansas along just south of the I-70 corridor with strong winds, hail, very low visibility in heavy rainfall. Next area of severe convection was moving eastward across southwest Kansas and will sweep eastward across central and south central Kansas during the mid-evening hours, capable of damaging winds, hail and low visibility in heavy rainfall. Strong inflow (south to southeast winds) ahead of the convection with strong and variable winds in the wake of the system later this evening.
Some MVFR stratus cigs are expected toward dawn.
KED
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Topeka, KS,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE