Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 1:57 AM   Moonset 11:55 AM

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FXUS63 KICT 012348 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 648 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms possible this evening for areas generally along and west of Highway 14.

- Storm chances remain for late tonight into Thursday and again for late Friday night into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Currently have an upper low situated over the Northern Rockies with a vort lobe rotating across eastern portions of the Great Basin. At the surface, low pressure is deepening across southeast CO with a warm front extending from north of Garden City to north of Dodge City with a dryline extending from south of Garden City down into the TX Panhandle. In addition, there appears to be a weak outflow boundary or tail-end of the warm front extending from south of Wichita to near Pratt.

Current thinking is that storms will develop along the dryline over southwest KS late this afternoon or early this evening.
Model trends have been to push initiation slightly further west with each run. While it's possible a storm could develop further northeast along the warm front, confidence is much lower due to central KS remaining fairly stable and with better convergence closer to the triple point. So at this point it appears locations generally along and especially west of Highway 14 would have the best chance to see storms that come off the dryline, generally after 6-7pm and possibly later. Any storm that comes off the dryline and affects our forecast area will have a chance of producing large hail, damaging winds and a tornado.

In addition to storms off the dryline this evening, we should also see an MCS track from west to east across Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, elevated storms will increase in coverage tonight across north central KS into Nebraska as the shortwave starts to translate east into the central/northern High Plains. Then as the overnight hours progress a cold front will start to surge south across the forecast area, reaching central KS after midnight and Wichita around daybreak. Some low end severe and strong storms will be possible as the front tracks south with hail the main threat. Cold front will continue pushing east on Thursday with southeast KS having the better shower and storm chances in the afternoon.

Looks like we will finally get a break from storms on Fri as cold front pushes east and a weak area of surface high pressure settles over the Plains. Pattern will remain active as yet another shortwave trough tracks out of the Northern Great Basin and across the Northern/Central Plains Fri night. This will allow a cold front to quickly push south across the area, exiting southeast KS by early Sat afternoon. Confidence is high that there will be showers and storm tied to the front as it tracks south. By 12z Sun there is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a fast moving upper impulse sliding across OK and into the Ozark region by Sun evening. This will bring shower and storm chances to much of southern KS Sun into Sun evening.

Attention then turns to our next potent shortwave trough set to move out of the Great Basin and across the Rockies on Sun night into Mon morning before going negative tilt over the Central/Northern Plains on Mon evening. This setup could potentially lead to a dryline setting up through KS with severe storms possible. However, with this system still a long ways off, the timing could change quite a bit.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Isolated storms in western Kansas are expected to increase in coverage late tonight while gradually spreading eastward along an advancing cold front. Storms will impact central Kansas in the 05-08Z timeframe while gradually building into south central KS and the Flint Hills after 08-10Z before dissipating early on Thursday. Winds will shift to the northwest in the wake of the front on Thursday. MVFR cigs will impact much of the area after midnight with some patchy IFR possible. VFR will return to central KS and portions of south central KS during the afternoon hours while MVFR cigs linger across southeast KS on Thu.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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