Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
El Dorado, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:16PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 6:48 PM CST (00:48 UTC) Moonrise 10:33AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Dorado, KS
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location: 37.87, -96.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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Fxus63 kict 212352
afdict
area forecast discussion
national weather service wichita ks
552 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 300 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018
a unique synoptic setup across the middle and western CONUS has made
way for an unusually challenging forecast for central, south
central, and southeast kansas over the next 24-48 hours. Expect
multiple winter precipitation types across the area at various times
over the next day or two. The over-arching message with this system
is that, regardless of precipitation type that your specific
location receives, the weather will very likely create hazardous
travel conditions and other inconveniences across the region. A
winter weather advisory has taken effect as of the writing of this
discussion as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected
to begin across the area this afternoon evening. This wwa is
valid through mid-day Thursday. Please see the latest wwa for
more details.

Short term (this evening through Friday night)
issued at 300 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018
kansas is currently wedged between a large area of high pressure to
our north over the high plains and low pressure to our south over
texas. A deep surge of cold air has ushered in sub-freezing surface
temperatures over the entire western CONUS and is expected to
continue to remain in place for the rest of the work week before
finally lifting back northward and bringing some relief this
weekend. These freezing temperatures will play a major role in the
wintry precipitation over the next day or two.

The main trough is currently situated in the southern rockies in the
southwest u.S. This system is expected to send waves northeastward
across the southern plains, the next round of which will bring
precipitation into the area this evening and into Thursday. Models
show increasing moisture flux divergence across the CWA along with
850mb moisture transport into the region from the south in
association with southerly flow aloft. Though confidence is high
regarding moisture availability, the main challenge of the forecast
surrounds the type of precipitation that will fall to the ground.

Model soundings, especially for central kansas locations, seem to
indicate that precipitation will likely begin as snow, with early
period thermal profiles completely below the freezing mark all the
way into the upper levels of the atmosphere. It looks like the
largest combination of snow and sleet accumulations (generally
between 1 and 2 inches) will likely occur in this area, though some
ice accumulation up to a tenth of an inch is also possible in
central kansas once the transition to freezing rain and a
snow freezing rain sleet mix occurs later in the event around
midnight.

For locations further south in south central and southeast kansas,
however, thermal profiles indicate that warming aloft will likely
produce a sufficient warm nose in the mid-levels to allow for a
mix of sleet and freezing rain. Though some snow mixed in is
possible early in the event, this is less likely than in central
kansas and confidence is higher that it will be more of a mixed
phase precipitation event in south central and southeast kansas.

It is expected that, for the most part, south central and
southeast kansas will likely transition to nearly all freezing
rain with some occasional sleet mixed in during the very early
morning hours on Thursday. This will lend itself to ice
accumulations of various amounts across much of the cwa, though
the largest ice accumulations of generally between one and two
tenths of an inch are expected in south central and southeast
kansas along and east southeast of a line stretching from marion,
mcpherson, and reno counties. Note that this area also includes
the wichita metro. This area will serve as a transition zone in
precipitation type meaning that they can expect some combination
of snow, sleet and ice accumulation from freezing rain, though the
ice accumulation is probably of greatest concern at this point
for the metro since its overnight and early morning timing will
likely create issues for the morning commute on Thursday morning.

By Thursday morning around sunrise, the precipitation is expected
to have eased off a bit and transitioned to more of a freezing
drizzle across the entire cwa. As temperatures warm up above the
freezing mark from southeast to northwest across the area, the
freezing drizzle will transition to a chance of drizzle and rain
throughout the day on Thursday before tapering off overnight
Thursday night into Friday.

By Friday morning, all precipitation should end across the area,
though a slight chance of rain in far southeast kansas cannot be
ruled out during the afternoon with increasing low level moisture
once again, though it appears that moisture availability will remain
somewhat limited and the bulk should stay outside of the cwa.

Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 40s and 50s on Friday,
which should help melt any remaining accumulations that are already
on the ground from the Wednesday evening through early Friday
morning event.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 300 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018
our next shot at precipitation will come during the day on Saturday
ahead of the next shortwave to make its way across mid-america.

Indications are, however, that a pocket of drier air situated over
the CWA will limit precipitation amounts and the current thinking is
that this will be more of a drizzle then transitioning to light
rain. Not expecting much in the way of moisture accumulation, with
rainfall accumulations up to three tenths of an inch in southeast
kansas with less expected elsewhere.

Following this system, high pressure is expected to build into the
region during the day on Sunday, which will dry things back out and
keep the forecast dry through at least Tuesday. With the upper
pattern becoming more zonal, expect milder temperatures and a
gradual warming trend from Sunday into early next week, with highs
into the low 60s by Tuesday. Early thinking is that the next trough
should begin to make its way through the central and southern plains
by late in the extended period, though moisture availability
looks fairly low at this point. Downslope flow should help
maintain above normal highs again on Wednesday through the
remainder of the extended forecast.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 535 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018
a widespread wintry mix will continue to develop across the area
this evening while spreading north and east across the area.

Freezing rain, sleet and snow will be possible at times as the
warm layer just above the surface slowly increases with time. The
current forecast maintains a decreasing trend during the morning
hours, although another period of light precipitaton may be
possible later in the afternoon.

Fire weather
Issued at 300 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018
with multiple chances of precipitation in the forecast over the
next several days, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Not
expecting any major fire weather conditions throughout the
forecast period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Wichita-kict 26 36 28 46 100 40 10 10
hutchinson 24 34 25 44 100 30 10 0
newton 24 35 27 44 100 30 10 0
eldorado 25 36 29 45 100 40 10 10
winfield-kwld 27 38 29 48 100 40 10 10
russell 20 32 23 43 90 30 10 0
great bend 20 33 23 43 80 20 10 0
salina 24 34 25 43 100 40 10 0
mcpherson 24 34 25 43 100 30 10 0
coffeyville 30 43 32 51 90 60 50 20
chanute 28 40 31 48 100 50 40 10
iola 27 39 31 47 100 40 50 10
parsons-kppf 30 42 32 50 100 50 50 10

Ict watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until noon cst Thursday for ksz032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Synopsis... Tav
short term... Tav
long term... Tav
aviation... Mwm
fire weather... Tav


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wichita Jabara Airport, KS24 mi55 minNE 1010.00 miOvercast25°F19°F78%1032.7 hPa

Wind History from AAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N7N7N11N12N9
G19
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G21
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G19
NE15N13NE12NE15NE13NE10
1 day agoNE8NE8NE8NE6N10N8N11N12N16N15N15N17
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2 days agoS16
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G19
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G32
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G35
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SW22
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NW17
G24
NW16NW15N12NW14N12N14N12N10N12N12NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wichita, KS (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wichita, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.