Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
El Dorado, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:56PM Friday June 22, 2018 9:34 PM CDT (02:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:48PMMoonset 1:47AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Dorado, KS
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location: 37.87, -96.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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Fxus63 kict 222359
afdict
area forecast discussion
national weather service wichita ks
659 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 251 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018
the main concerns through this weekend will be severe weather,
first this evening, then potentially a more significant event on
Sunday.

This afternoon, an instability gradient sfc boundary stretches
from NE co southeast into central ok. Thunderstorms have initiated
along the boundary east of the front range and there are already
signs of a small MCS feature developing. These storms are expected
to ride SE along the instability gradient, eventually impacting at
least a portion of our forecast area this evening. Continued waa
ahead of the S W moving through co may allow the boundary to shift
ne some this evening. How far north east this boundary moves may
ultimately determine how far east into our area thunderstorms can
reach. The greatest instability will reside near south of that
boundary which should keep the better chance of severe weather
just to our west over SW ks. That said, as the storms reach our
western counties, they will pose primarily a strong damaging wind
threat. An isolated instance of large hail cannot be ruled out,
but mainly our far SW counties where the better shear instability
will reside. Storms should weaken with time as they push east of
hwy 14 due to a lack of greater instability.

Attention then turns to Sunday as a strong S W trough ejects out
of the central rockies. Ahead of this wave, a strengthening
southerly flow will likely transport upper 60s to lows 70s
dewpoints into central ks by the afternoon hours as a sfc low
develops over the tx ok panhandles. This combined with strong
surface heating should allow moderate to strong instability to
develop with MLCAPE values of 3500 to 4500 j kg possible. Shear
will gradually increase towards early evening as the S W trough
and a modest mid upper jet approach the area.

Sw flow aloft will lead to warming 850-700mb temps which may tend
to cap thunderstorm development initially. However, large scale
forcing ahead of the S w, and sfc convergence along a frontal
boundary in the area should be sufficient to overcome the cap,
especially along west of the i-135 corridor. Initial development
will likely be discrete in nature with all modes of severe weather
possible. There remains some uncertainty regarding the convective
evolution, but the thinking is that storms may tend to merge with
time along the surface boundary, eventually propagating E se,
with the threat trending towards damaging wind. Given the expected
shear instability, significantly large hail and 70+ mph wind
gusts will be possible. An increasing low level jet in the evening
along with the potential of more backed sfc winds near the sfc
boundary will allow a tornado threat to exist as well, especially
with any discrete supercells. Heavy rain isolated flash flooding
cannot be ruled out later Sunday night, but will be more
conditional on how storms evolve with time. Showers and storms may
linger into Monday before drier air moves in. - martin

Long term (Tuesday through Friday)
issued at 251 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018
the main concern mid to late-week will be temperatures. In the
wake of the early week system, upper level ridging over the four
corners region will begin to expand east across much of the
central southern plains. Locally, this should lead to temperatures
in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Mostly dry conditions are
expected during this time as well, although an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out later in the week as weak upper
level waves glance the area, especially the i-70 corridor. -
martin

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 700 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018
large area of (+)tsra 50-70sm wide extends from extreme south-
central nebraska, across WRN c ks, to the tx panhandle. Primary
svr threat would be 50-60kt winds. +ra likely to reduce vsbys to
2-3sm. The (+)tsra complex will move E SE across the rest of ks
tonight with the remaining TAF sites experiencing similar CIGS &
vsbys as kgbd & krsl. Potential for ifr CIGS is high across the
ern half of ks early Sat morning as the tsra vacate ks.

Preliminary point temps pops
Wichita-kict 65 89 69 91 70 20 10 30
hutchinson 63 89 67 90 70 10 0 50
newton 64 88 67 89 70 20 0 40
eldorado 64 86 67 88 60 20 10 30
winfield-kwld 65 88 69 90 80 30 10 20
russell 61 89 66 87 60 10 10 50
great bend 61 88 66 88 60 10 10 50
salina 64 90 68 91 50 20 0 50
mcpherson 62 88 67 89 70 20 0 50
coffeyville 66 86 69 89 70 30 10 20
chanute 65 86 68 89 60 30 10 30
iola 65 86 67 89 50 20 10 30
parsons-kppf 66 87 69 89 70 30 10 20

Ict watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Rm
long term... Rm
aviation... Eps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wichita Jabara Airport, KS24 mi40 minN 510.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity76°F61°F60%1008.5 hPa

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Last 24hrN5W5NW6NW6NW6N6N7N9N9N6N6N7N4NW8W84W4W86N5NE8E7E6N5
1 day ago----N12N12NW8NW7NW7W8NW8W9NW10NW13
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2 days agoSE6SE8SE10S8S9NW24
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wichita, KS (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wichita, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.