Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:02PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 12:29 PM EDT (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:03AMMoonset 6:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1026 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds...subsiding to 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds late.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft...mainly E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft... Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft...mainly E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 6 ft...mainly E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
ANZ600 1026 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Tropical storm jose will continue to lift well northeast of the waters today. Jose will linger off the northeast coast through the weekend before dissipating. SWells from distant hurricane maria will begin to impact the local area by this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, VA
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location: 37.88, -75.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201525
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1125 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the
end of the week. Tropical cyclone jose will continue to track
northeast to a position off the southern new england coast later
today, then meander there through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Ts jose continuing to circulate sse of SRN new england through
the rest of the day. Far ene locations of fa remain in WRN periphery
of the storms circulation... And will have sct-bkn sc-ac and
possible isold shras (into this afternoon). Otherwise... Subsidence
evident on satl over the rest of the fa and will result in a
mostly sunny... Warm day. Moisture now over the ERN oh valley
into the central mtns expected to stay wsw of the local area.

Near term guidance suggests a diminishing trend and no
convection reaching far wsw zones. Highs 85-90f... Except l80s at
the beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Models suggest any evening convection to the west slides SW of the
fa then dissipates after 00z across the nc piedmont. Otw, mstly clr
to pt cldy and warm tonight. Lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s.

Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of
the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the
weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy
nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at
the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s se.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
High pressure builds over the ERN great lakes and NE CONUS early
next week as the remnant low (jose) slowly circulates ese of
new england. Other than periods of sc off the ocean (by the late
in the weekend-early next week) ESP at the coast... Expect dry wx
with above normal temps.

Highs sat-sun in the mid-upr 80s except lwr 80s at the coast. Highs
mon and Tue in the upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows in the low-mid 60s inland,
upr 60s to around 70f at the coast.

Extended models continue to struggle with the tropical systems into
early next week. It may depend on where jose's low tracks which may
eventually help to steer maria. The latest GFS and to a certain point
the ECMWF has maria on a similar track to what jose did (i.E.

Moving north along the eastern seaboard my mid week, but how
close to the coast???). To early for anything specific, but we
may be doing this all over again for maria next week. Stay
tuned.

Aviation 16z Wednesday through Sunday
Ts jose continues to lift NE away from the area today. Sct-bkn
MVFR sc along the coast this morning becomes sct CU this aftn.

Wnw AOB 10 kts.

Outlook: generallyVFR dry conditions are anticipated through the
weekend as high pressure builds into the region.

Marine
Tropical storm jose will continue to lift north of the waters
this morning before moving off the northeast coast later today. Jose
will linger off the northeast coast through the weekend before
dissipating. Swells from distant hurricane maria will begin to
impact the waters by this weekend.

Have allowed the SCA headlines at the mouth of the bay to end,
with the only headlines now confined to the coastal waters for
5-8 ft seas. Marine conditions are expected to continue to
improve through the aftn, with winds diminishing to 10-15 kt or
less across the coastal waters after 18z and 5-10 kt or less
elsewhere. Sub- SCA conditions are expected through Thursday
for a majority of the waters except for lingering 5 ft+ seas on
the coastal waters. Seas will once again ramp up Friday and into
the weekend as swells from distant hurricane maria begin to
impact the region. Additional small craft advisories will likely
be be needed for the coastal waters by this weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
Made some adjustments to the forecast, with tidal departures
now about the same in the upper bay as the lower bay (averaging
close to +1.5 ft throughout). This due to water not exiting the
bay efficiently (looking at currents at the CAPE henry channel
marker currents). The level at cambridge may be exacerbated by
an additional few tenths of a foot due to NW winds ~10 kt
trapping water in the inlet. Have upgraded to a coastal flood
warning for the bay side of the md eastern shore
(dorchester wicomico somerset) for the upcoming high tide cycle
later this aftn early evening. Elsewhere, will allow the
warning for the va ERN shore and ocean side of the md shore to
expire shortly after noon, with just additional minor flooding
anticipated for the tide tonight and possibly on thu. Will
update these products early this aftn with additional coastal
flood advisory headlines.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues today as swell nearshore waves will be slow to
subside.

Climate
Record highs for 9 20:
ric... 95 in 2005
orf... 97 in 1895
sby... 90 in 1983
ecg... 93 in 1942

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood warning until 1 pm edt this afternoon for mdz024-
025.

Coastal flood warning until 7 pm edt this evening for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz089-090-093.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz095>097-523>525.

Coastal flood warning until 1 pm edt this afternoon for vaz099-
100.

Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz075-077-078-084>086.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz650-
652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Alb mpr
near term... Alb
short term... Mpr
long term... Alb mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ajb
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 12 mi30 min 73°F5 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 21 mi42 min W 5.1 G 12 78°F 74°F1013.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 36 mi42 min WNW 11 G 13 1014.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi42 min NW 12 G 16 78°F 74°F1013.7 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 38 mi42 min N 9.9 G 13 76°F 73°F1012.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 46 mi40 min NW 14 G 18 76°F 1014.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi40 min WNW 16 G 18 75°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA4 mi36 minNNW 1010.00 miFair81°F70°F69%1012.4 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA21 mi55 minNW 13 G 1810.00 miFair77°F68°F75%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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NW9NW10NW10NW10NW9NW8NW8NW9
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1 day agoNE14NE12N9N10
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2 days agoNE11E12NE14NE12NE13--NE12NE10NE9NE11NE10NE9NE10NE7N5N6N6N7N8N7NE11
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NE17
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G24

Tide / Current Tables for Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Virginia
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Bogues Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 03:28 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:05 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:45 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:29 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.20.4-0-00.51.32.33.13.43.32.92.21.40.5-0-0.10.2122.93.53.53.2

Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 02:50 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:34 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:07 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:58 PM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.90.80-0.20.21.12.33.44.24.23.83.12.110.1-0.3-0.10.71.93.14.14.44.13.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.