Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:23PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 7:33 PM EDT (23:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:24AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 702 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Showers likely with scattered tstms early in the evening...then isolated tstms late in the evening. Scattered showers in the late evening and early morning.
Wed..N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds in the evening.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 702 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure and its associated cold front will move across the waters and out to sea this evening into early Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday into Thursday morning...before pushing offshore late Thursday into Thursday night. Low pressure and another cold front will approach from the west on Friday...then move across the area Friday night into Saturday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, VA
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location: 37.88, -75.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 282048
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
448 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the region this evening. High pressure
builds in from the north on Wednesday. The high retreats to the
northeast on Thursday as the next system approaches from the
west. A strong system is expected to impact the region Friday
and Friday night. Dry weather returns for the weekend.

Near term /through Wednesday/
Latest analysis indicating broad area of low pressure centered
from eastern pa to the DELMARVA with a strong mid/upper level
trough and associated shortwave energy moving ese across south
central va and north central nc. Scattered/numerous tstms have
developed and are pushing through much of the CWA west of the
bay, and will continue to push E towards the coast through 00z.

Have had fairly limited sunshine today but temperatures into the
lower-mid 70s has allowed ml capes to avg ~1000 j/kg. Effective
shear over southern areas is 30-35 kt, while it's <30 kt over
the remainder of the region. Thus far, storms have been fairly
short-lived and sub-severe but have been producing hail. Expect
this to be the main concern through early evening along with
some gusty winds of 30-40 mph. Will carry 60-70% pops through
22z to 00z (longest farther east), with pops rapidly
diminishing to 30-40% or less after 00z.

Genly dry after midnight though with a low level flow behind the
front nne rather than nw, expect some lingering clouds to
persist through Wed morning. Lows mainly 50-55 f (except upr
40s ERN shore). Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed after some
early mostly cloudy conditions (especially south) as drier air
moves in from the n. Somewhat cooler but still a little above
avg with highs 60-65f near the coast and in the upper 60s to
lower 70s well inland.

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/
Upper ridge axis quickly moves back into the region by thu,
allowing return of mid/high clouds during the day. Gfs/nam
bufkit soundings suggest skies become mostly cloudy by mid-late
morning for WRN 1/2 of the cwa. With fairly low mixing and
overrunning clouds, expect a much cooler day with highs mainly
ranging from the lower to mid 50s near the coast to the upper
50s over interior eastern va/northeast nc. Kept it dry through
the day despite the increase in clouds ahead of the next system.

A complex low pressure system approaches from the west late thu
night and early Fri before slowly crossing the region
Friday/Friday night. Guidance in good agreement with respect to
potential for widespread showers/tstms and potential for heavy
rain during fri. Will limit pops to 20-30% along west of i-95
prior to 12z Fri before increasing to 80% to 90% all areas
during fri.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/
Good chc for showers continues Fri night into Sat morning, as
low pressure area and associated cold front crosses the area
then moves off the coast. Dry wx and high pressure returns for
sat aftn thru at least Mon morning. Yet another system will
bring the chc for showers again late Mon thru tue.

Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s sat, in the 60s to near 70
sun and mon, and in the 60s to lower 70s tue. Lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 40s Sat night and Sun night,
and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Mon night.

Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/
This morning began with widely scattered showers with isolated
thunder, and showers are still occurring east of interstate 95
as of 28/1800z this afternoon. Clearing can be seen in satellite
imagery over central and western va, and additional upper level
support from a decent shortwave (and subsequent cold pool aloft)
will aid in the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms the
rest of this afternoon into this evening. The presence of a dry
slot in water vapor imagery (currently over far SE va/ne nc)
indicates that these areas will need to be closely monitored as
convection moves closer to the coast. Isolated strong wind gusts
will be the primary threat with thunderstorms today, however
hail could pose a lesser threat. Cigs/vis expected to briefly
drop to MVFR flight conditions under stronger storm cores. Kept
vcts in forecast at all TAF sites through this afternoon/evening
until more definitive storms develop. Predominantly southwest
winds 10-15kt rest of today gusting up to around 20kt; stronger
and more erratic in vicinity of thunderstorms.

Once the surface cold front clears the coast after midnight,
winds shift to the north with speeds averaging 5-10kt. Low
stratus is expected to develop late tonight as the atmosphere
saturates from the recent rainfall. CIGS should average
500-1500ft agl. Fog not anticipated to be an issue with the
winds above 5kt. Skies will scatter out and lift from north to
south on Wednesday as high pressure slowly builds into the
region from the north. Dry withVFR conditions through Thursday.

However, clouds should increase in coverage on Thursday in a
light onshore/northeast wind regime with shortwave energy/moisture
dropping through the region from the northwest. Clouds then
thicken and lower Thursday night as the next low pressure system
approaches the area. This system should bring widespread showers
and thunderstorms to the area Friday/Friday night as it crosses
the mid atlantic states.

Marine
Late this aftn, sfc low pressure was over ERN md with a cold
front extending fm the low SW thru cntrl va and nc. SW winds 5
to 15 kt this evening will shift to the NW then N later tonight
into Wed morning, as the low/front push out to sea and high
pressure starts to build in fm the great lakes region. North
winds mainly 10-15 kt expected during wed, as sfc high pressure
ridges down into the mid atlc region. While there could be a
few gusts to low end SCA in the ches bay Wed morning thru
midday, still do not expect predominate SCA conditions to be met
thru wed. However, winds will be marginal for much of the
morning and early aftn in the lower chesapeake bay, and will
need to watch marginal SCA gusts during that time.

Otherwise, cool high pressure will continue to build in fm the
north Wed night into Thu morning, before it slides out to sea
thu aftn and night. Nne winds 10-15 kt Wed night thru thu
morning, become NE 5 to 10 kt Thu aftn. E winds 5 to 10 kt thu
night become SE 10-15 kt Fri morning, and SE or S 10-20 kt fri
aftn into early Fri evening, as a warm front lifts acrs the
waters. Waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft this evening thru wed, then
seas could build to near 5 ft over portions of the coastal
waters Wed night into thu. But, no SCA headlines at this time.

Could have SCA conditions over portions of the waters Fri aftn
thru Fri night.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Jdm/lkb
long term... Tmg
aviation... Bmd
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 12 mi34 min 46°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 21 mi46 min S 2.9 G 4.1 58°F 60°F1010.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 36 mi46 min NW 11 G 11 1011.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi46 min SW 5.1 G 6 58°F 54°F1011.1 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 38 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 1010.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 46 mi34 min N 7.8 G 7.8 58°F 50°F1010.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi34 min W 1.9 G 1.9 58°F 49°F1010 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA4 mi40 minSSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds60°F55°F86%1010.5 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA21 mi39 minN 010.00 miLight Rain67°F54°F66%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13S12S11S9S8S7S9S6S8S9S11S9S11S13S8SW6S8S10S8S7SW10W8SW8S5
1 day agoNE12NE12E11E8NE6E5E5CalmCalmS3S6S8S8S7S10S10S13S16S12S12S15S18
G24
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2 days agoS8S6S6SE3CalmNE11NE9NE11NE11NE14NE14
G21
NE15NE15NE14NE13NE15NE16NE16NE14NE14NE17NE13NE13NE14

Tide / Current Tables for Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Virginia
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Bogues Bay
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Tue -- 03:41 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:27 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:02 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:47 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.10.3-0.3-0.40.1122.93.53.532.31.50.7-0-0.3-00.81.82.73.53.73.3

Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:56 AM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:24 PM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:16 PM EDT     4.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.70.5-0.4-0.8-0.50.51.8344.443.22.21.10-0.6-0.50.31.52.83.94.54.43.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.