Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, VA
May 19, 2024 3:06 PM EDT (19:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM Moonset 2:39 AM |
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 252 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Through 7 pm - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Mon night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Tue - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 10 seconds.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night - S winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 252 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system over south carolina graduall moves offshore though Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
a low pressure system over south carolina graduall moves offshore though Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
FXUS61 KAKQ 191840 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 240 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 955 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Much drier today with mostly cloudy skies.
- High temperatures warm into the 70s inland, but stay in the 60s along the coast.
High pressure is slowly ridging southward toward the area this morning. Weak sfc low pressure (1010 mb) is centered just off the NC OBX. Aloft, broad troughing extends from the nrn Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. The associated shortwave axis is broadly aligned along the ern spine of the Appalachians.
This shortwave shifts E through today, shifting the upper flow to the N-NE as ridging expands through the OH River Valley and ern Great Lakes. This should funnel some drier air into the region, especially across western and northern portions of the area (away from the coast). Latest satellite imagery is already showing some breaks in the clouds, especially over the piedmont and the Eastern Shore. Clouds will continue to break up through the day, especially inland, allowing temps to warm into the low 70s.
Along the coast and across SE VA/NE NC, moist low- level flow will keep the dreary conditions in place. Compared to yesterday (Saturday), there should be less/no drizzle and just broken- overcast low clouds and breezy NE winds (especially along the immediate coast). Highs here will likely stay in the mid 60s.
Otherwise, some low- level convergence and a final piece of upper energy could spark some sporadic shower activity in the Piedmont. Drier low-levels here should keep the coverage very isolated, which is supported by the high res models that reflect little to no activity.
Low clouds expand westward off the ocean again tonight. Lows will be in the low-mid 50s (coolest MD Eastern Shore) and staying mainly dry.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend begins Tuesday, though it remains cooler at the coast.
Sfc high pressure nudges further S for Monday. This weakens the pressure gradient and NE winds along the coast should gradually subside heading into the afternoon. However, it will likely stay mostly cloudy and temps again struggle to get any higher than upper 60s here. For inland areas, expect to see noticeable clearing as the day progresses with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Overnight lows Mon in the low-mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in typically cooler inland spots.
Upper ridging builds further across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday.
Elongated sfc high pressure will also center over the area. Onshore flow will continue along the coast, but it will be much lighter.
Temps range from the low 70s adjacent to the water to the upper 70s and low 80s to the W in the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. Skies become mostly sunny, with a few lower clouds lingering along the coast.
Lows Tue night in the mid-upper 50s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Trending warm/hot for the mid-week period.
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return to end the week.
A substantial warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge remains across the eastern CONUS and the upper flow shifts to the W. Highs Wed in the mid-upper 80s (lower 80s coast). Highs for Thursday have trended higher and NBM now indicates some lower 90s are possible with high pressure settling offshore and sfc winds becoming SW. However, the current forecast has upper 80s for most of the area.
Global models continue to indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. The 00z suite of guidance generally trended slower w/ the front and the consensus now favors a Thursday evening/overnight FROPA. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs. This yields chance PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday and first half of the night.
Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability.
Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40- 50 kt of upper-level flow overspreading the region. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for scattered afternoon showers Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through, with the storm potential dependent on the track of the sfc features. The best chance for thunder Fri is currently across the SW. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms. Overnight lows through the extended period generally remain in the 60s.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
Widespread MVFR across the area this afternoon as BKN-OVC skies persist. Drier air will filter into the area as an upper level trough pivots offshore, allowing clouds to scatter out over much of the area this evening. Clouds are expected to build back into the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning. With the clouds come the return of flight restrictions with MVFR at the coast and potential IFR at RIC. Guidance also suggests formation of fog over the piedmont overnight, which may impact RIC. NE winds will persist at the coast through the period. Further inland, winds become light and varied overnight.
Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 240 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 955 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Much drier today with mostly cloudy skies.
- High temperatures warm into the 70s inland, but stay in the 60s along the coast.
High pressure is slowly ridging southward toward the area this morning. Weak sfc low pressure (1010 mb) is centered just off the NC OBX. Aloft, broad troughing extends from the nrn Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. The associated shortwave axis is broadly aligned along the ern spine of the Appalachians.
This shortwave shifts E through today, shifting the upper flow to the N-NE as ridging expands through the OH River Valley and ern Great Lakes. This should funnel some drier air into the region, especially across western and northern portions of the area (away from the coast). Latest satellite imagery is already showing some breaks in the clouds, especially over the piedmont and the Eastern Shore. Clouds will continue to break up through the day, especially inland, allowing temps to warm into the low 70s.
Along the coast and across SE VA/NE NC, moist low- level flow will keep the dreary conditions in place. Compared to yesterday (Saturday), there should be less/no drizzle and just broken- overcast low clouds and breezy NE winds (especially along the immediate coast). Highs here will likely stay in the mid 60s.
Otherwise, some low- level convergence and a final piece of upper energy could spark some sporadic shower activity in the Piedmont. Drier low-levels here should keep the coverage very isolated, which is supported by the high res models that reflect little to no activity.
Low clouds expand westward off the ocean again tonight. Lows will be in the low-mid 50s (coolest MD Eastern Shore) and staying mainly dry.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend begins Tuesday, though it remains cooler at the coast.
Sfc high pressure nudges further S for Monday. This weakens the pressure gradient and NE winds along the coast should gradually subside heading into the afternoon. However, it will likely stay mostly cloudy and temps again struggle to get any higher than upper 60s here. For inland areas, expect to see noticeable clearing as the day progresses with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Overnight lows Mon in the low-mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in typically cooler inland spots.
Upper ridging builds further across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday.
Elongated sfc high pressure will also center over the area. Onshore flow will continue along the coast, but it will be much lighter.
Temps range from the low 70s adjacent to the water to the upper 70s and low 80s to the W in the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. Skies become mostly sunny, with a few lower clouds lingering along the coast.
Lows Tue night in the mid-upper 50s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Trending warm/hot for the mid-week period.
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return to end the week.
A substantial warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge remains across the eastern CONUS and the upper flow shifts to the W. Highs Wed in the mid-upper 80s (lower 80s coast). Highs for Thursday have trended higher and NBM now indicates some lower 90s are possible with high pressure settling offshore and sfc winds becoming SW. However, the current forecast has upper 80s for most of the area.
Global models continue to indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. The 00z suite of guidance generally trended slower w/ the front and the consensus now favors a Thursday evening/overnight FROPA. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs. This yields chance PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday and first half of the night.
Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability.
Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40- 50 kt of upper-level flow overspreading the region. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for scattered afternoon showers Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through, with the storm potential dependent on the track of the sfc features. The best chance for thunder Fri is currently across the SW. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms. Overnight lows through the extended period generally remain in the 60s.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
Widespread MVFR across the area this afternoon as BKN-OVC skies persist. Drier air will filter into the area as an upper level trough pivots offshore, allowing clouds to scatter out over much of the area this evening. Clouds are expected to build back into the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning. With the clouds come the return of flight restrictions with MVFR at the coast and potential IFR at RIC. Guidance also suggests formation of fog over the piedmont overnight, which may impact RIC. NE winds will persist at the coast through the period. Further inland, winds become light and varied overnight.
Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44089 | 13 mi | 41 min | 58°F | 3 ft | ||||
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 21 mi | 49 min | ENE 15G | 62°F | 65°F | 29.97 | ||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 36 mi | 49 min | NW 7G | 30.02 | ||||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 37 mi | 49 min | N 6G | 70°F | 68°F | 29.98 | ||
| OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD | 38 mi | 49 min | E 5.1G | 60°F | 61°F | 29.96 | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 46 mi | 43 min | WNW 9.7G | 65°F | 67°F | 0 ft | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 46 mi | 43 min | E 3.9G | 67°F | 68°F | 0 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA | 4 sm | 12 min | ENE 17 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 57°F | 77% | 29.98 | |
| KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA | 21 sm | 23.9 hrs | E 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 29.97 |
Tide / Current for Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Bogues Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:41 AM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:39 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT 2.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:53 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:49 PM EDT 3.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:41 AM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:39 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT 2.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:53 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:49 PM EDT 3.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 2.1 |
| 5 am |
| 2.5 |
| 6 am |
| 2.7 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 2.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 3 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:00 AM EDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:38 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT 3.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 12:12 PM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:17 PM EDT 3.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:00 AM EDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:38 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT 3.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 12:12 PM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:17 PM EDT 3.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 2.8 |
| 5 am |
| 3.2 |
| 6 am |
| 3.3 |
| 7 am |
| 3 |
| 8 am |
| 2.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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