Smith Island, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith Island, MD

May 7, 2024 9:58 PM EDT (01:58 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM
Moonrise 4:29 AM   Moonset 6:52 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 721 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.

Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tstms likely in the evening. A chance of showers.

Fri - W winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.

Fri night - NW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.

Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 721 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak front meanders just to the north of the area this evening. A series of low pressure systems will pass along that front, resulting in chances for showers and storms each day through Thursday. Outside of any Thunderstorm influences, marine conditions are expected to be mainly benign through Thursday. A stronger cold front looks to pass through Friday into Friday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 080155 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 955 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 950 PM EDT Tuesday...

Rain showers from earlier have dissipated due to a loss of daytime heating. Outside of an isolated shower, we should stay dry for most of the night. Will have to keep an eye on any upstream convective complexes over the Ohio Valley as some CAMs continue to hint at residual echoes trying to clip northern portions of the area early Thursday morning. In addition, fog has already started to develop across portions of the VA/MD Eastern Shore due to moisture from the earlier rain showers combined with a light onshore flow. Patchy fog will likely continue in these locations for much of the night, with visbilities potentially dropping below 1/2 mile at times.
Overnight lows will be mild and in the mid 60s for most of the area (upper 50s along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore).

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

While the ridge flattens some into Wednesday, low-level thicknesses will be at their greatest, favoring the hottest temps of the week.
Most guidance agrees on nearly everywhere flirting w/ 90 degrees with some output even suggesting a few sites reaching 92-93F. Even those on the eastern shore should reach the upper 80s. Given dew points in the 60s (low 60s NW/mid-upper 60s SE), aftn heat indices approach the mid and potentially upper 90s. The other story will be continued chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. With a strong upper low shifting E towards the Great Lakes and an approaching (but flattening) mid/upper trough, stronger flow aloft is forecast to overspread the FA. Area-averaged soundings show more than adequate bulk shear to support svr wx (~40 kt). Additionally, the aforementioned heat/humidity will favor moderate-strong instability with MLCAPE 2000+ J/kg in the aftn, highest across the S/SE. The one caveat is we again are lacking a prominent trigger for storms w/ the WSW sfc flow and ridge aloft, so may have to again rely on residual boundaries or upstream perturbations to spark convection. SPC has upgraded the SW half of the area to a slight risk, which is where the highest confidence resides regarding convective coverage and strong instability. Would not be surprised to see this expanded to the rest of the FA in future updates. Steep low and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates argue for both large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats from any storm that can develop. Convection may linger into the evening and overnight as instability will be slow to wane. Also, there is a better signal in the guidance that a mesoscale convective system (or its remnants) will move through at some point Wed night, which explains the elevated overnight and early morning PoPs. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 60s.

The highest coverage of severe wx is expected Thursday as even stronger flow aloft overspreads the region and a sfc cold front approaches from the W. Aloft, the approaching upper trough will induce height falls and provide more widespread forcing for ascent.
SPC has a slight risk for the entire area. Some of the CAMs continue to suggest prior-day shower/storm activity may linger into the morning hrs Thursday, which could mess with the aftn instability to some extent. However, it is notoriously difficult to time these features (even in the <24 hr timeframe) and the models tend to perform poorly in their development and evolution. Damaging winds and large hail continue to look like the most likely threats from any storm. Given the frontal forcing, it seems probable that storms would eventually grow upscale in a linear-type feature, with widespread damaging winds becoming increasingly favored. Low-level hodograph curvature is also somewhat enhanced near the front, though high LCLs would argue against a robust tornado threat. With more clouds around, high temps will be cooler and generally in the 80s (warmest S/SE, coolest N). Also cooler Thu night with lows in the upper 50s-low 60s.

Friday starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA At this time, severe wx is not expected. Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s (upper 70s possible far S).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

There remains some uncertainty for both Friday night and through the weekend. The 12z deterministic GFS continues to phase the upper trough with srn stream energy Fri night (this is because it is slower and more amplified with the trough). This leads to sfc low pressure formation along the baroclinic zone just offshore of the Carolinas. Such a scenario would push widespread stratiform rainfall N towards the FA Fri evening and overnight. The 12z ECMWF suppresses this feature further S as it is depicts a more neutral trough tilt. At this time, will keep the highest PoPs across the SE assuming the sfc low passes well to our S. Beyond this, the weekend weather pattern will feature yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/ 20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It looks mainly dry from late Sunday through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s), potentially warming further into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions at all TAF sites to start off the forecast period. Low stratus and patchy fog develops later this evening/tonight (mainly after 03z) at SBY resulting in sub-VFR conditions. Confidence is not overly high in regards to how far inland the lower CIGs will make it, though moisture from today's rainfall may aide in patchy fog formation at SBY. All other sites remain VFR through tonight. VFR conditions are expected through the day Wednesday outside of any scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms (highest chances across the southern TAF sites). Winds will primarily be light and out of the SW tonight (variable early tonight closer to the coast), increasing to around 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail through Thu, with chances for storms mainly during the aftn/evening. The highest coverage is expected to be Thursday as a slow moving cold front moves through the area. Svr wx is possible. Mainly VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers redeveloping Fri aftn into fri evening. Mainly dry Sat.

MARINE
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Latest analysis continues to show a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the northern mid-Atlantic, with 1018+mb surface high pressure centered south of Bermuda. A weak lee trough continues to sharpen west of the waters, allowing for S-SW winds over the region ~10-12 kt. Waves 1-2 ft, with seas generally 2 to 4ft with some weak E-SE swell at 8-10 seconds.

High pressure remains anchored well offshore through mid week, with (sub-SCA) S-SW flow also persisting throughout the midweek period. A series of upper waves traverse north of the area, and bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Timing will continue to favor the late afternoon/evening into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low approaching from the W-SW with the trailing cold frontal passage crossing the waters Friday morning/afternoon. Winds quickly veer to the W-NW post-frontal Friday afternoon. A brief CAA surge could bring a brief window of SCAs to the Bay and lower James Friday night, with winds then diminishing through the day Saturday.
Winds quickly veer back to the SSW again Saturday night and Sunday ahead of another weaker front. That front crosses Sunday night, with winds eventually veering back to the NNW Sunday night and into early next week. Aside from enhanced winds/seas in convection over the next few days and a brief period of potential SCA-level winds Friday night, conditions remain largely Sub-SCA through the period. Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work week.
week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

The upcoming new moon cycle and the Perigee from this past weekend will lead to continued positive tidal anomalies over the next few days. Given the ongoing light southerly flow, some nuisance to low- end minor coastal flood impacts are possible for coastal communities along the upper portions of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River during the upcoming astronomically higher high tide cycle late this evening into Wednesday morning. Added some Coastal Flood Advisories for Lancaster and Northumberland Counties (Lewisetta) and from Accomack VA north to Somerset, Dorchester, and Wicomico (MD)
counties on the bay side of the eastern shore. Potential for some additional nuisance to near minor water levels over the next couple of days before tidal anomalies ease later this week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ077-078- 099.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi53 min SE 9.7G14 65°F 66°F0 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi59 min S 4.1G6 71°F 71°F29.73
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi53 min S 7.8G9.7 66°F 65°F0 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi59 min SSE 8.9G11
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi59 min SSE 6G8 71°F 75°F29.74
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi59 min SSE 5.1G7 29.79
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi59 min SSE 6G7 67°F 67°F29.71
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi59 min S 4.1G4.1 65°F 70°F29.75
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi59 min E 8G9.9 67°F 29.73
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi89 min 0 69°F 29.7767°F
44072 47 mi47 min SSE 12G14 67°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi59 min SE 5.1G5.1 70°F 68°F29.75
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi47 min SSE 14G16 65°F 68°F1 ft
44089 49 mi63 min 61°F3 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi59 min SSE 5.1G6 69°F 67°F29.74


Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA 13 sm23 minSE 0710 smClear70°F68°F94%29.74
KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD 21 sm65 minESE 0510 smClear70°F66°F88%29.72
Link to 5 minute data for KNUI


Wind History from NUI
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   
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Smith Point Light
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Tue -- 12:16 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:43 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.6
1
am
1.6
2
am
1.3
3
am
1
4
am
0.5
5
am
0.1
6
am
-0.1
7
am
-0.2
8
am
-0
9
am
0.3
10
am
0.7
11
am
1
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.3
2
pm
1.2
3
pm
0.9
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
0.1
6
pm
-0.1
7
pm
-0.1
8
pm
0
9
pm
0.4
10
pm
0.8
11
pm
1.2


Tide / Current for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
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Tue -- 12:02 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:29 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:44 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.6
1
am
1.5
2
am
1.3
3
am
0.9
4
am
0.5
5
am
0.1
6
am
-0.1
7
am
-0.2
8
am
0
9
am
0.3
10
am
0.7
11
am
1.1
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.3
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
0.1
6
pm
-0.1
7
pm
-0.1
8
pm
0
9
pm
0.4
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
1.3


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