Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:44PM Saturday April 20, 2019 1:06 PM EDT (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:16PMMoonset 6:25AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1214 Pm Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..S winds 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 1214 Pm Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. An upper level low will be slow to lift northeast across the local waters during the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201410
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1010 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Synopsis
An upper level low will be slow to lift away to the northeast
over the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am edt Saturday...

fyi... Storm survey teams are out and about the area today.

Statements to be issued once the surveys are completed.

Latest radar shows the bulk of the rain ahead of a sfc trof having
pushed offshore. Given the latest radar trends, kept slght chc pops
along the coastal zones for a lingering shwr thru noon. Otw, attention
then turns to the upr lvl low located along the ky W va line. This
feature is progged to slowly drift ene this aftrn. High res data shows
a svrl hr period late this morning and erly aftrn where little if
any pcpn occurs as the airmass slowly heats up. Expect self-destruct
sc CU to fill in the cloud coverage as the heating reacts with the
apprchg cold pool aloft. Any shwrs across the west appears to hold
off until after 18z then slowly push east towards the i95 corridor
late. Thus, have adjusted the grids with this in mind. Highs 65-70
where cloud cover is expected to be thicker to around 70 east.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
As of 400 am edt Saturday...

clouds associated with the slow-moving upper low will stick around
on Sunday with isolated showers possible across most of the region
through the afternoon hours. Highs on Sunday will top out in the mid
60s with overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. The upper low
will open into a trough and finally lift out of the region Sunday
night and Monday allowing skies to clear from southwest to
northeast. Increased sunshine will send afternoon highs back into
the 70s for Monday with overnight lows in the 50s. Tuesday will be
warmer still with temperatures generally in the low 80s inland and
mid to upper 70s near the water and across the eastern shore.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

the extended period begins with the upper trough that will
impact the region this weekend finally exiting the area and a
stronger upper level ridge building in and across the
southeastern us. As the ridge builds in, expect to see a period
of warmer weather and also drier conditions on Tuesday.

There is a great deal of uncertainty from Wednesday through
Friday however as several shortwave troughs try to break down
the SE ridge and push a surface front through the area. The
models are showing little consistency between themselves and
little run to run consistency either. The 00z ECMWF was quicker
to push the surface front south of the area as it was more
progressive with the upper level shortwave trough and had the
surface front south of the region by Thursday before lifting it
back north on Friday. The 12z GFS on the other hand was slower
to move the front through waiting until Thursday night to push
the front through as a stronger northern stream trough
approaches on Friday. Then the 12z ECMWF completely changed
things by being so slow that is never has the front reach the
area and amplifies the upper trough over texas and holds the
front northwest of the area into Friday night. So confidence in
the over pattern is low. For now, have added a generally low
chance of showers into the forecast from Wednesday into Friday
and it will all be dependent on the position of the front.

For temperatures, have gone a touch warmer on Tuesday into
Wednesday with readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. But a
touch cooler on Thursday and Friday with readings in the mid
70s. But if the front does stay to the north, readings could be
a little warmer toward the tail end of next week. Overnight lows
should stay on the milder side in the 50s across the region.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 730 am edt Saturday...

pcpn pushing offshore while slowly movg north attm. Most of the
rain has ended except for sby where the rain should taper
off end within the next hr or so. Otw, CIGS improve toVFR
at all locations as the main system slowly pulls off to the ne.

Expect sct-bkn sc CU to dvlp this aftrn as upr lvl low spreads
its moisture east of the mts. Some shwrs are psbl with this
feature, but mainly in areas north and west away from the taf
sites. South winds remain rather gusty today at 15-25 kts.

Outlook:
upper low will be slow to cross the region tonight into early
mon morning. This will result in more clouds (still mainlyVFR
cigs), esply over ric sby phf, along with a slight chance of
showers.

Marine
As of 315 am edt Saturday...

low pressure will be slow to exit the region during the
weekend. Will maintain a S wind 20-25 kt (gusts to 30kt mouth of
the ches bay ocean) to start then mainly 15-20 kt today (aob 15
kt on the rivers), becoming SW tonight, continuing Sunday w
further lowering of speeds expected. Scas up for rivers sound
until 10z 20... The ches bay until 22z 20 and on the ocean until
10z 21 (which may need extended a little longer due to seas slow
to fall blo 5 ft). Mainly SW winds AOB 15 kt over the local
waters mon-tue.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 730 am edt Saturday...

most if not all coastal flooding issues have ended this morning
as water levels slowly subside over the next 12-18 hrs.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for anz650-652-654-
656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr rhr
near term... Mpr rhr
short term... Rhr
long term... Ess
aviation... Mpr rhr
marine... Ajz alb
tides coastal flooding... Mpr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi49 min SSW 15 G 19 1005.8 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi49 min SW 14 G 16 63°F 58°F1006.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi49 min SSW 12 G 15
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi55 min S 17 G 19 65°F 68°F1006.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi49 min S 18 G 19 1005 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi49 min SSW 13 G 17 64°F 65°F1007.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi49 min SSW 19 G 24 65°F 1006 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi49 min SW 14 G 18 64°F 1007.4 hPa
44072 47 mi57 min 63°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi49 min SSW 14 G 22 66°F 61°F1006.5 hPa
44089 48 mi37 min 54°F7 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi49 min 1005.7 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi14 minSSW 11 G 1810.00 miFair67°F53°F61%1005.6 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE8E8NE8E9E9E10
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E7E8E8E8E6E7E7CalmNE3E6E5E3E4SE4S6S6S9SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
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Sat -- 01:48 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:13 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.51.61.51.10.70.3-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.50.91.21.41.31.10.70.30-0.1-0.10.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:34 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:13 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:59 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.61.61.41.10.70.3-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.611.31.41.310.70.30-0.1-0.10.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.