Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:10PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 8:41 PM EST (01:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:35AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 643 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Snow likely early this evening, then a chance of snow late this evening. A slight chance of snow after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
ANZ600 643 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks off the coast tonight. High pressure slowly builds over the waters Thursday into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180132
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
832 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will track northeast just off the mid
atlantic coast this evening into early Thursday morning. The
storm tracks east northeast out to sea Thursday while high
pressure builds in from the west. High pressure sliding from the
gulf coast states eastward to off the southeast coast will bring
dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area Thursday
night through Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Updated forecast to allow warnings to expire for most of south
central va, will allow them to remain in effect acrs
greenville southampton sussex northampton nc. Also, extended
advisories a few more hrs for areas to E SE of metro ric with no
other changes to headlines.

Latest analysis indicates a deepening ~1015mb sfc low off to the
ese of CAPE hatteras this evening with areas of snow now ending
over NW portions of the CWA as drier air (dew pts into single
digits) are filtering in. Farther S and se, still have areas of
light moderate snow occurring across southern eastern va NE nc
and the va eastern shore. Models water vapor imagery indicate
the upper level low over western nc far SW va, with strong mid
level vorticity vorticity advection pushing into eastern nc.

Based on the latest hrrr rap model trends, and anticipated upper
level shortwave energy vorticity advection and associated
vertical motion transfer to the mid atlc coast this
evening tonight, have extended the ending times of
warnings advisories acrs the cwa.

The highest snow totals have occurred over scntrl va into
interior NE nc and interior SE va. Still monitoring far SE va ne
nc but overall the snow rates intensities have dropped off since
7pm so decided against upgrading to warnings. Additional snow
amounts of 1-2" through around midnight will mainly be confined
to NE nc and a few spots in far SE va (though most locations in
va should expect an additional 1" or less).

Expect gradual clearing fm wnw to E overnight into Thu morning.

Cold with lows ranging fm the lower mid teens W NW to lower
20s se. Driving conditions will still remain slick after pcpn
ends and will be issuing an sps when all other winter products
end.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly Thu aftn with 850mb temps
-2 to -4c at 12z warming to +4-6c by 21z. A cold start to the
day, limited mixing, and mid-level WAA should result in rather
stable lapse rates and surface high temps should only reach the
upper 30s to arnd 40.

High pressure will then slide from the gulf coast states
eastward to off the SE coast Thu night thru sat, and bring dry
weather and moderating temperatures to the area. Lows Thu night
mainly in the lower to mid 20s. Highs on Fri will range fm the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Fri night will range fm the mid 20s
to around 30. Highs on Sat will range thru the 50s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Milder spell of wx through the extended forecast pd. Pattern evolving
fits transition of mjo through phase 4 toward phase 5... Leading to
aoa normal temperatures. Other than a very wk upper level system
tracking off SE CONUS coast sun... Sfc hi pres and upper level
ridging will be dominant Sun into mon. By late mon... Storm system
expected to track into the WRN great lakes... W its trailing
cold front approaching the mtns. That front will make progress
across the local area Mon night-early Tue W potential shras
(though 12z 17 ECMWF a tad slower than 12z 17 GFS attm).

Drying clearing out and a bit cooler (returning to near seasonal
levels) for Tue afternoon-wed.

Lows Sat night ranging through the 30s. Highs Sun in the l50s
on the ERN shore to 55-60f elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly
35-40f. Highs Mon in the m50s on the ERN shore to the u50s-l60s
elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the u30s to l40s. Highs Tue in the
l50s on the ERN shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Tue night in
the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Drier air slowly filtering from the nw, with mainlyVFR
conditions now at kric ksby and pts nw. Still MVFR ifr across se
va NE nc in snow and this will persist through 03-06z,
lingering the longest across the far se. Winds will generally be
n with gusts to 25 kt near the coast overnight. Skies gradually
become sct to skc between 06-12z, with breezy N to NW winds
continuing.VFR mainly clear for the remainder of the day with
winds shifting to the W by aftn.

Outlook: predominantVFR conditions Thursday night through
Sunday as the trough departs well to the NE and a ridge builds
across the region. Next chance for showers (rain) and flight
restrictions will arrive later Mon mon night.

Marine
Raised gale warnings for coastal waters S of CAPE charles
light. Through Thu am.

Sfc lo pres exits off the coast this eve... W continued low
level CAA into Thursday (morning) before waning. Nnw winds will
average 15 to 25 kt... Gusts to around 30 kts - ESP near the
lower ches bay and on the ocean waters. Will need to monitor for
at least low end gale gusts this eve-tonight as the lo pres
system exits... ESP on the lower ocean waters S of CAPE charles
va. Scas have been raised to most of the ERN va rivers (through
tonight)... Otherwise no big changes to other SCA headlines
attm. High pressure settles over the area for the end of the
week... Through the weekend allowing for diminishing winds and
sub-sca conditions.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for
ncz013-014-030.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for ncz012.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Thursday for ncz015>017-
031-032-102.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for
vaz078-082>086-089-090-093-096-518-520-523>525.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for vaz087-
088-092.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Thursday for vaz095-
097>100.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
vaz079>081-514.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Thursday for anz650-652-
654.

Gale warning until 10 am est Thursday for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz635>637.

Small craft advisory until 11 am est Thursday for anz630>634-
638.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Lkb tmg
short term... Tmg
long term... Alb
aviation... Jef
marine... Alb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi31 min ESE 12 G 16 26°F 1024.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi41 min N 11 G 17 26°F 33°F1025.6 hPa (+0.0)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi31 min N 16 G 19 26°F 1027.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi41 min N 16 G 18
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi41 min N 12 G 16 26°F 31°F1025.5 hPa (+0.3)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi41 min NNW 27 G 32 1024.5 hPa (+0.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi41 min NNW 9.9 G 14 26°F 34°F1025.2 hPa (+0.0)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi41 min NW 6 G 13 23°F 34°F1024.1 hPa (+0.3)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi41 min N 20 G 26 25°F 1026.1 hPa (+0.0)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi71 min NNW 6 23°F 1026 hPa20°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi41 min N 19 G 21 25°F 1024.8 hPa (-0.4)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi41 min NNW 13 G 15 23°F 34°F1024.7 hPa (+0.0)
44072 47 mi31 min N 19 G 23 25°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi31 min NNW 18 G 23 26°F 1025.5 hPa
44089 48 mi41 min 37°F4 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi41 min 25°F 31°F1025.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi48 minVar 59.00 miOvercast26°F9°F48%1025 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW33CalmNW4NW5NW6NW7NW8NW866NW5NW8NW7NW10
G14
NW8NW7NW75
1 day agoCalmN3NW3CalmNW3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6NE3NE4N4NE4NE34N8N6N10
G17
NE4N6N8N763N5NW6NE7NW44N4N3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:27 AM EST     1.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:23 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:48 PM EST     1.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:54 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:08 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.90.60.30-0.1-0.10.10.30.711.21.31.20.90.60.30-0.1-00.10.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Great Wicomico River Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:00 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:15 PM EST     1.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:55 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:48 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.80.70.40.20-0.100.20.50.811.11.110.70.40.20-00.10.30.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.