Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:17PM Sunday May 26, 2019 6:05 PM EDT (22:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:51AMMoonset 11:41AM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 402 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Through 7 pm..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Scattered showers and tstms early in the evening, then showers and tstms likely in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers late.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..E winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 402 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure centered off the southeast coast this afternoon. A weak backdoor cold front pushes south across the waters late tonight into memorial day, and lifts back north as a warm front on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 261936
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
336 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will drop across the region tonight into
memorial day before return back north of the area on Tuesday,
followed by a big warm up for the remainder of the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 315 pm edt Sunday...

latest wx analysis reveals sfc warm front now well north of the
local area into new england. Sfc cold front extends w-sw from w
ny eastern great lakes into the lower oh valley. Radar mosaic
showing increased convection diving sse across oh tn WV just
ahead of the front, with some isolated pulse convection which
developed to the east of the blue ridge now dropping across our
nw tier of counties. This initial round of convection is being
aided in part W lift from decaying MCS mcv which pushed across
the midwest earlier today.

Across the local area, widespread CU field developing as
convective temps are being met. Hrrr continues to show iso-sct
storm coverage over northern central zones between 19-23z 3p-7p
this evening over the northern third of the area and moist pre-
frontal airmass. Upper trough sliding across the northeast will
dampen the upper trough slightly this aftn tonight. This will
serve to force a second round of convection e-se across northern
neck md counties this evening as the front drops back south
across the areas. For that reason, have bumped to likely pop
tonight over md zones after 02z 10p, while keeping slight chc or
less across the southern tier of counties.

Temperatures already well into the upper 80s to low 90s
inland... Mid to upper 80s along the coast. Will be close for
meeting tying daily record high at ric. See climo section below
for details.

Multi-cellular storm mode still favored later this aftn, focused
mainly across the north given better moisture forcing.

Increasing downslope component to the winds will also serve to
lower areal coverage along and south of the 460 corridor. Have
40-50 pop for sct thunderstorms north, 20-30% pop central eastern
va for iso to widely sct thunderstorms central. Did include a
slight chc in nc counties after 6pm, mainly seabreeze aided
across NE nc coastal communities.

Spc convective slight risk remains oriented along and north of a
farmville-williamsburg-melfa line. Damaging wind gusts, frequent
lightning and brief heavy rainfall are the primary hazards... But
given potential for strong updrafts, a few reports of large
hail are also a possibility.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday
As of 315 pm edt Sunday...

the front will drop farther south of the area during mon, under
a partly to mostly sunny sky. Not quite as warm in onshore
flow. Mainly just a slight to low end chance for showers tstms.

Highs on Mon will range thru the 80s to near 90, cooler near
the water.

The warm front will lift back north acrs the area Mon night into
tue morning. Upper ridging will remain anchored over the
southeast with sfc ridge setting up offshore. Remaining warm and
moderately humid. Partly sunny and a bit warmer once again.

Maintained a slight chc for mainly diurnally-driven thunderstorms
along the eastern third of the area on Tuesday.

Warmest day of the next week looks to be Wednesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
As of 315 pm edt Sunday...

big story in the extended will be continued very warm to hot
conditions across the region. An upper level ridge remains in
control at the start of the forecast period, amplifying across
the region on Wednesday. With w-sw to SW downsloping flow
during the day and 850mb temps in the 20-23c range, expect
temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s across much of
the area on Wednesday. Temperatures may even touch 100 degrees,
especially across far southern portions of the fa. Our one
saving grace is that decent mixing in low levels should keep
apparent temps near air temperatures. Thus, still don't expect
heat indices to be much of a factor. Warm and dry wed... But will
maintain slight chc pop for now for a stray shower or storm
given strong heating. But given strong downslope and no apparent
convective trigger, would expect coverage to be low at best.

Low temperatures on Wednesday night only drop into the low to
mid 70s.

By Thursday, the upper level ridge axis begins to break down push
east of the local area as a more potent shortwave develops and moves
across the midwest and great lakes. Thursday will likely be another
very hot day with temperatures making it up into the mid 90s across
much of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the
increase as the shortwave and associated cold front approach and
cross the region late Thursday into early Friday. This boundary then
stalls lingers near to just south of the region into the weekend
bringing the potential for more unsettled conditions. Temperatures
cool down slightly Friday into the weekend, but are still expected
to remain above average as highs in the mid to upper 80s are
anticipated.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
As of 1240 pm edt Sunday...

vfr conditions at the local area TAF sites this aftn will
persist into Mon morning. However, do anticipate some short-
lived MVFR conditions at sby and possibly ric after 22z 6p late
this evening into very early Mon morning, due to sctd tstms
(highest pops) moving thru that area. There is a lower chc of
showers tstms at phf orf, with the lowest chc at ecg during this
time period. SW winds become w-nw this aftn and likely onshore
(ne) at orf this aftn. Outside of tstms, winds will become
generally light and variable tonight, then NW or N by mon
morning.

Outlook:
mainlyVFR conditions expected Mon thru tue, with slight to sml
chc of a shower or tstm.

Marine
As of 320 pm edt Sunday...

mostly quiet across the marine area this afternoon with generally
light and variable winds (5-10 knots). Waves ~1 ft in the bay and
seas 2-3 ft offshore. There remains a chance for showers and storms
to drop east and southeast late this afternoon into the overnight
hours with strong winds being the main marine hazard.

Winds will become southeasterly this evening ~10 knots as compact
low pressure approaches from the nw. A weak cold front will follow
this low, allowing winds to become NW ~10 knots late tonight. Winds
swing around to the NE on Monday and then S 10-15 knots by Tuesday
afternoon as high pressure aloft remains anchored over northern gulf
coast. Waves in the bay will generally run 1-2 ft while seas
offshore will stay in the 2-4 ft range through mid week.

Climate
As of 315 pm edt Sunday...

* records for today Sun 5 26:
* richmond: 94 (1991) (record high min 70 in 2011)
* norfolk: 98 (1880) (record high min 74 in 2011)
* salisbury: 92 (2011) (record high min 69 in 1984)
* eliz city: 95 (1953) (record high min 74 in 2011)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg 2019 (thru 5 25) most (year)
* richmond: 2 days 3 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day none so far 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 4 days 9 days (1944)

Equipment
As of 300 pm edt Sunday...

kakq 88d radar is offline due to a transmitter error. Technicians
are awaiting parts for needed repairs. No return to service time
is available. See ftmakq for details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam tmg
long term... Alb mam
aviation... Mam
marine... Lkb rhr
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi47 min S 7.8 G 7.8 78°F 73°F1013.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi41 min SSW 7 G 8 82°F 76°F1014 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi47 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 76°F1012.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi59 min S 5.1 G 5.1
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi41 min ESE 1 G 5.1 79°F 81°F1015 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi35 min Calm G 1 1015.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi35 min E 9.9 G 11 77°F 73°F1013.5 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi35 min W 1.9 G 4.1 88°F 80°F1014.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi35 min ENE 5.1 G 7 77°F 1014.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi35 min SE 9.9 G 9.9 80°F 1014.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi35 min W 5.1 G 6 89°F 76°F1014 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi47 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 75°F 1014.5 hPa
44089 48 mi35 min 70°F3 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi41 min 76°F 76°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi72 minS 610.00 miThunderstorm87°F70°F57%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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1 day ago3NE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E11E9E6CalmE7E6SE9E9E9E11E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:33 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.40.60.811.11.21.10.90.70.50.30.20.30.40.60.811.11.110.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Great Wicomico River Light
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:49 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:50 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.40.60.80.9110.90.70.50.40.20.20.30.40.60.80.910.90.80.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.