Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:20PM Monday March 25, 2019 6:57 PM EDT (22:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:40PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 322 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Through 7 pm..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain until early morning, then a chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 322 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks across north carolina this evening. The associated strong cold front drops south across the local area through this evening, before sliding off the mid-atlantic coast late tonight. Cool high pressure builds in from the north Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 252240
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
640 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure and an associated cold front push south and east
of the area later tonight. Canadian high pressure builds into
the region through the mid week period.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 640 pm edt Monday...

latest sfc analysis reveals that low pressure over SW va
earlier this aftn is now centered over far SE va ERN nc. Wv
satellite imagery shows an upper shortwave diving SE across the
ohio valley. Rain has overspread the southeastern two-thirds of
the cwa, with a few embedded tstms over far SRN va NE nc.

Temperatures are still in the upper 60s over NE nc while
readings are mainly in the 55-60f range over central va (where
winds have turned to the n). Temperatures have fallen into the
50s from orf-ntu to the lower ERN shore (where the flow has
increased out of the E ne).

Rain will end from NW to SE over the NW two-thirds of the cwa
from 00-06z tonight as the low moves offshore. Rain will likely
continue through most of the night over the southeast third of
the CWA as the aforementioned upper shortwave dives into the
carolinas. QPF amounts (from 00-12z tue) range from a few
hundredths of an inch NW to 0.50-0.75" over SE va NE nc. The
sfc low deepens as it continues to move offshore as high
pressure builds into the WRN great lakes late tonight. The
resulting pressure gradient between the deepening low and high
to the NW will allow n-ne winds to become gusty to 40-50 mph
over coastal SE va NE nc late tonight. Expect nne winds to gust
to 20-40 mph in most other locations (still highest near the
coast). Overnight lows range from the mid 30s north to low- mid
40s south.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday night
As of 245 pm edt Monday...

altough the deepening low pulls farther offshore tues, moisture
fields show some light rain lingers along the sern coastal zones
thru 15z or so. Thus, will keep low chc pops across those areas
early. Otw, canadian high pressure builds SE from the gt lakes
region tues aftrn. Rather tight pressure gradient btwn the offshore
low and the high to the north keeps a stiff NE wind blowing along
the coast. NE winds 25-35 mph ERN shore to 35-45 mph sern coastal
areas (wind advsry along the SE coast). Mstly sunny most areas
except bcmg pt to mstly sunny across the se. Cooler despite the
sunshine. Highs 50-55 west of the bay, 45-50 near the water.

Clear and cold once again tues night with slowly diminishing winds
along the coast. Lows upr 20s-lwr 30s except mid 30s at the beaches.

The high moves into new england Wed with it extending SW along the
mts Wed nite thurs. Dry conditions expected thru the mid week period
along with a slow warming trend. Highs Wed in the 50s except upr 40s
to near 50 at the beaches. Lows Wed night in the 30s. Highs thurs
upr 50s-lwr 60s west of the bay, lwr-mid 50s near the water. Lows
thurs nite in the 40s.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 245 pm edt Monday...

high pressure becomes nearly stationary off the coast late in the
week. As we enter backdoor cold front season, one such front is
progged to remain north of the local area through sat, keeping the
area warm and dry. Highs Fri in the upr 60s-lwr 70s west of the bay,
60-65 near the water. Lows Fri nite 45-50. Highs Sat 70-75 west of
the bay, in the 60s near the water.

Low pressure tracks NE of the area Sat night allowing a trailing
cold front to cross the area sun. Chc pops with this feature late
sat night and sun. Lows Sat nite upr 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Sun in the
60s to near 70 south. Lows Sun nite upr 30s-mid 40s. Some model
disagreement as to how quick the front and assctd pcpn exits the
coast. GFS quicker than ecmwf. Will lean toward a dry and cooler
mon. Highs 55-60.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 130 pm edt Monday...

vfr conditions to start off the forecast period as high and mid
level cloudiness thicken up ahead of an apprchg low and strong
cold front. Shwrs from both the low and ahead of the front will
overspread the area before 00z but CIGS vsbys with these should
only drop into the MVFR category. A tstrm is also possible thru
00z at most TAF sites except sby with the fropa, but did not
include any thunder ATTM given no thunder is noted on any radar.

A secondary upr level low will follow the front tonight where
more of a stratiformed rain will occur with CIGS lowering to
near ifr levels but kept cigs AOA 1k ft for now. The next forecast
concern will be gusty nne winds behind the entire system as the
pressure gradient tightens btwn the deepening low moving offshore
and high pressure to the north. Winds will drastically increase
along the coast and become gusty along the coast after 06z
tonite. Gusts 15-20 kts at ric, 15-25 kts at sby with 20-30 kts
at phf, 30-40 kts at both orf and ecg. Skies slowly clr by the
end of the forecast period.

Outlook:
vfr conditions return through the end of the week as high
pressure builds to the north of the area mid week and over the
area by late week.

Marine
As of 200 pm edt Monday...

a weak frontal boundary is draped across the northern neck and lower
md eastern shore this afternoon. Winds along and north of the
boundary are ene at 10 kt or less and south of the boundary are s-sw
around 10 kt. Low pressure over eastern ky tn will approach from the
west late this afternoon, before sliding across nc this evening and
emerging off the mid-atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. As the
low approaches, the aforementioned front will dive south across the
waters late this afternoon evening, with winds quickly turning to
the nne post-frontal. Strong north and northeast flow will follow
the frontal passage with scas already in place for the northern ches
bay, rivers and coastal waters north of parramore island. Farther
south, gale warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters south
of parramore island, the lower ches bay and currituck sound through
much of Tuesday. Have also added in the lower james river to the
gale warning starting at midnight. Winds in the gale warning will
run nne 25-35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Within the scas, nne winds
20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt.

Sfc low pressure still looks to slow linger offshore Tuesday night
and early Wednesday, allowing scas into Wednesday, at least over
over the lower bay and lower james... With winds across northern
waters slow to diminish into Wednesday. Over the coastal waters,
seas quickly build tonight and Tuesday, with persistent strong ne
winds building seas considerably (5-8 feet N and 6-10 feet s) on
Tuesday. A high surf advisory has been issued from va beach south to
outer banks currituck in response to building seas during this
period. Even after winds diminish with slackening pressure gradient
late Wednesday, an extended period of elevated seas appear likely
over the coastal waters for much of the week ahead, given prolonged
onshore flow continuing through midweek. Marine conditions finally
start to improve later Thursday and Friday... As high pressure builds
over the southeast and winds turn offshore later Fri into
Saturday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 200 pm edt Monday...

a high surf advisory has been issued from va beach to outer
banks currituck for breaking waves around 8 feet, which will
result in some beach erosion and dangerous surf conditions.

Although not anticipated at this time, some minor tidal flooding
may occur across the lower ches bay and lower james river
(sewells pt) during high tide Tuesday afternoon.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Wind advisory from 4 am Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday night
for ncz017-102.

High surf advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 4 pm edt Wednesday
for ncz102.

Va... Wind advisory from 4 am to 6 pm edt Tuesday for vaz095-100-525.

Wind advisory from 4 am Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday night
for vaz098.

High surf advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 4 pm edt Wednesday
for vaz098.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz630-631-
635>637.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
anz632-634-638-654.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to midnight edt Tuesday
night for anz633-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Eri mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm
tides coastal flooding... Jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi39 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 49°F1015.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi57 min 54°F 50°F1014.4 hPa (-0.0)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi39 min E 16 G 18 51°F 50°F1011.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi63 min E 5.1 G 7
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi57 min 55°F 55°F1015.2 hPa (-0.0)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi57 min 1014.3 hPa (-1.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi57 min 57°F 48°F1014.3 hPa (-0.6)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi57 min 50°F 57°F1013.8 hPa (-0.6)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi57 min 56°F 1015.5 hPa (-0.0)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi87 min E 1.9 57°F 1014 hPa53°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi57 min 55°F 1013.2 hPa (-1.4)
44072 47 mi47 min 52°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi57 min 54°F 50°F1012.1 hPa (-1.6)
44089 48 mi87 min 47°F2 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi57 min 54°F 50°F1015 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi64 minENE 610.00 miLight Rain56°F43°F62%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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SW6------NE3CalmCalmN5NE5NE9E86N6NE7NE6
1 day agoW11NW5NW5NW5NW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6S7S76SE9SE6SE8SE9SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:34 AM EDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:59 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:02 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.50.91.21.41.41.310.60.30-0.100.30.60.91.11.21.10.90.60.30.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Great Wicomico River Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.91.21.31.210.70.40.1-0-00.10.40.70.91.110.90.70.40.1-0-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.