Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:50PM Thursday November 15, 2018 7:09 PM EST (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 11:51PM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 415 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect through Friday morning...
Through 7 pm..E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw late in the evening, then becoming W 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Rain likely early in the evening. A chance of drizzle until early morning. A chance of rain in the late evening and early morning.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
ANZ600 415 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Strong low pressure will push off the virginia capes this evening and move well off to the northeast of the region on Friday. High pressure slowly builds in from the west Friday night into Saturday leading to calmer conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 152123
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
423 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will along the mid-atlantic coast tonight... Toward
new england by early Friday. High pressure returns late tonight
into Friday and remains over the region through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 325 pm est Thursday...

latest wx analysis reveals deepening surface low pressre offshore of
the E nc coast. Aloft, strong mid upper low continues to slide ne
across the ohio valley toward the interior northeast. Surface low
pressure will continue to lift along the mid-atlantic coast this
evening, to a positon off just south of long island by late
tonight early Friday morning. Rain already in the process of
tapering off across the area, with IR wv composite showing one last
batch of heavier showers pushing across the area at 20z. Behind this
feature, will see some periodic light rain or drizzle as mid-level
drying ensues, with pops turning off tonight as the upper system
tracks to the north across the NRN mid-atlantic. Clearing is
expected sw-ne late as drier air arrives with lows ranging from the
low 30s W to the low mid 40s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
As of 325 pm est Thursday...

upper level low will eject NE across the northeast toward new
england through the day Friday. Resultant w-sw downslope flow will
help to quickly scour out clouds Friday morning. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure rebuilds from the west late Friday into Saturday,
bringing a mostly clear sunny sky late Friday into the weekend. Weak
caa at the surface will maintain temperatures near or just below
seasonal averages. Highs Friday generally in the 50s Friday Saturday
and lows in the 30s inland to low 40s for coastal SE va NE nc
Saturday morning.

High pressure at the surface builds overhead into the upcoming
weekend, with a quieter, quasi-zonal flow aloft bringing a dry,
quiet wx weekend across the local area. Maxima do moderate slowly
from Friday through Sunday, but temperatures look to remain at or
just below climo norms. Expect highs generally in the 50s to near 60
with early morning lows generally into the low to mid 30s inland to
around 40 at the coast.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm est Thursday...

much quieter weather still on track for much of next week. A weak
upper-level shortwave approaches the area late Sunday-Monday
(coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way of rain
expected with the fropa, but have slight chc pops for coastal NE nc
from 06-18z mon. Looks like the bulk of the rain will fall well
offshore after the front crosses the CWA by Mon aftn. Behind the
front, sfc high pressure settles just west of the region Mon night-
tue. However, am only expecting temperatures to drop to slightly
below average. A weak shortwave caught in NW flow aloft is progged
to swing through the mid-atlantic on Wed (coupled with another cold
front). However, moisture will be lacking across the area, so this
will be another (mainly) dry fropa. Canadian high pressure then
settles over the region on Wed night-thu am before moving offshore
by the end of the day on thu.

The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs on Mon will
still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue wed, with highs in the
upper 40s to near 50 north mid 50s south. Warming back up into the
50s area-wide on thu. Lows Monday night in the low-mid 30s
inland around 40 in coastal SE va-ne nc. Cooler on both Tuesday and
Wednesday night with lows ranging from near 30 NW to the mid-upper
30s se.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 110 pm est Thursday...

deepening sfc low continues to lift n-ne along the carolina
coast this afternoon, spreading light rain across area
terminals. CIGS vsby are largely ifr this afternoon. Rain will
continue to taper off from sw- NE this aftn through this
evening, with some lingering light rain drizzle persisting into
late tonight. A NE wind will increase to 10-15kt inland to
15-25kt along the coast, with gusts as high as 35kt along the
coast, and ~20kt inland. CIGS are expected to remain ifr this
evening after the rain ends. Drier air arrives from the W later
tonight with the wind becoming W 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt and
conditions are expected to improve rapidly after 07-10z, with
vfr conditions persisting through Friday on a breezy west wind
(gusts to ~20-25kt tomorrow late morning aftn).

Outlook: high pressure prevails Friday night through Monday
with continuedVFR conditions expected.

Marine
As of 400 pm est Thursday...

low pressure now lifting into eastern nc and will push off the
va capes this evening. Strong E NE winds continue north of the
sfc low, while winds are diminishing in the southern waters.

Headlines have generally remained as they were although extended
the gales through 7 pm for the lower james (this now matches the
end time for the york rappahannock). Gales are in effect through
fri morning for the entire bay and all coastal waters to cover
gusts to 35-40 kt in the west winds overnight. Seas have risen
to ~15 ft at buoy 44100 and to 12 ft at 44099 and these higher
seas will translate north over the next few hrs. Expect seas to
hit 15 ft or higher later this evening at buoy 44009 off
fenwick.

Mentioned in the mww that winds may occasionally gust to 50 kt
over the northern coastal waters before the winds diminish later
this evening. Winds and seas will remain elevated with sca
headlines needed after the gales expire at various times tonight
or on fri. Calmer conditions return for the weekend as high
pressure settles back over the region.

Hydrology
As of 330 pm est Thursday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Expect additional rises
and possible warnings on local rivers given the expected
rainfall Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 1215 pm est Thursday...

strong E NE winds prevail and tidal departures are rising rather
quickly as expected. Based on current observations, have raised
a coastal flood advisory for areas along the southern shore of
the james river from surry to suffolk. Closer to the bay as well
as in areas farther north, departures are in general slightly
lower but will still be close to minor flood thresholds with the
upcoming high tide this aftn early evening. Issued a couple of
coastal flood statements to highlight these areas from sewells
pt up the western shore of the bay to lewisetta.

Will continue to monitor the trends to in case additional
advisories are needed for the atlantic side eastern shore though
it looks like this would not be until the following high tide
overnight early fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for mdz025.

Wind advisory until 10 pm est this evening for mdz024-025.

Nc... High surf advisory until 1 am est Friday for ncz102.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 9 pm est this evening for vaz089-
093-096.

High surf advisory until 1 am est Friday for vaz098.

High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for vaz099-100.

Wind advisory until 10 pm est this evening for vaz099.

Wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for vaz100.

Marine... Gale warning until 10 am est Friday for anz650-652-654.

Gale warning until 7 am est Friday for anz630>632-634-656-658.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for anz633-635-636-
638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for anz637.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Lkb
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi49 min ENE 25 G 31 50°F 1006.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi39 min ENE 17 G 24 50°F 49°F1006.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi49 min NE 19 G 23 54°F 1006.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi45 min ENE 18 G 23
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi39 min NE 13 G 19 49°F 47°F1008.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi39 min N 18 G 22 1005.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi39 min NNE 14 G 17 44°F 53°F1007.8 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi39 min NE 17 G 26 58°F 51°F1005 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi39 min NNE 18 G 22 43°F 1009.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi39 min N 7 53°F 1006 hPa53°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi39 min N 15 G 20 57°F 1004.4 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi39 min W 8.9 G 14 56°F 54°F1004.4 hPa
44072 47 mi49 min ENE 1.9 G 7.8 60°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi49 min 43°F 1011.2 hPa
44089 48 mi39 min 59°F13 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi39 min 49°F 49°F1009.7 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi16 minNE 19 G 278.00 miLight Rain and Breezy50°F48°F96%1005.5 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE8NE5NE10NE8NE8NE9NE9NE6NE10
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1 day agoNW85
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NW8NW5W46NW7NW7NW8N4NW7364NW4----N8NW7664CalmCalm
2 days agoNE6NE6NE4NE4E6E7E7E8E9
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W8W9NW9NW8NW6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:42 AM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:43 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:58 PM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.60.811.11.110.90.70.50.40.40.40.60.811.21.21.210.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Great Wicomico River Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:11 AM EST     0.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:19 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.60.80.910.90.80.70.50.40.30.30.40.60.811.11.110.80.60.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.