Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:14PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:29 PM EDT (21:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:51AMMoonset 3:36PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 430 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Through 7 pm..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Showers with a chance of tstms early in the evening. A slight chance of rain in the late evening and early morning...then a chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain until late afternoon. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers early in the evening... Then showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se early in the afternoon...then increasing to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely early in the morning.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms until early morning...then showers likely late.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 430 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks off the mid atlantic coast this evening with a frontal boundary dropping into the carolinas. This front lifts back north into the region late tonight into Tuesday and Tuesday night as low pressure tracks along the boundary. Unsettled conditions continue Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level trough approaches from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 222021
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
421 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will track off the mid atlantic coast this evening
with a frontal boundary dropping into the carolinas. This front
will lift back north into the region late tonight into Tuesday
and Tuesday night as a potent low pressure system tracks along
the boundary. Unsettled conditions continue Wednesday and
Thursday as an upper level trough approaches from the west.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
Current surface observations, radar imagery, and satellite
imagery depict a compact low tracking newd across the peninsula.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible across the
tidewater and ERN shore late this aftn through early evening as
this system pushes through due to the combination of decent
forcing and pw values of +1-2 st dev. QPF of 0.5-1.00" is
possible through this evening, with some locally higher amounts.

Instability has climbed to 1000-2000 j/kg, but 0-6km bulk shear
is generally less than 25kt, so any severe threat has bee
localized, and should end by 5 pm along coastal SE va/ne nc.

Temperatures this aftn are mainly in the low/mid 70s, with
low/mid 80s across NE nc.

The front associated with the low drop back into the carolinas
this evening with some drying aloft as the shortwave aloft and
surface low push offshore. Pops drop below 15% across the N with
some partial clearing possible, while mostly cloudy conditions
continue s. A chc of rain returns across SRN va/interior NE nc
overnight as moisture from the wsw begins to increase along the
frontal boundary. Likely to categorical pops arrive for the sw
corner of the area by daybreak Tuesday. Lows range from the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/
The flow aloft remains SW Tuesday, with another wave lifting
newd across the carolinas during the morning and the mid-
atlantic during the aftn and evening, with deep layer moisture
returning. Categorical pops overspread the entire area Tuesday.

Categorical pops overspread the entire area Tuesday after 12z
for much of the area (and after 15-18z across the ne). 22/12z
nam/gfs/gefs/ecmwf/cmc continue to show some differences in
timing and location and strength of this wave of low pressure,
but the general theme is for a potent system with deep anomalous
moisture transport per strong h925-h700 southerly flow and pw
values climbing to ~1.75" collocated with the favorable rrq of a
potent 120-130kt jet over the northeast conus. The threat for
heavy rain and possible flooding will continue to be mentioned
in the hwo, and have opted against a flood watch at this time as
6hr FFG is generally 4-6" across much of the area, with some
values of 3-4" across the piedmont and md ERN shore. QPF through
00z Wednesday averages 1-3" across the region, and higher
amounts are possible. Storm total QPF through Thursday ranges
from 1.5-3.5" (tonight through Thursday) the axis of heaviest
rain per 12z model consensus is generally in the i- 85/us 360
corridor. The current high temperature forecast shows generally
low/mid 70s SE to the upper 60s/around 70 f central and mid 60s
far nw.

This shortwave/surface low push offshore Tuesday evening.

However, 22/12z nam/ecmwf depict a secondary wave lifting across
the SRN half of the are 00-06z Wednesday, so have bumped pops
up to 40-70% S to account for this. Yet another wave approaches
from the SW Wednesday aftn as an upper low approaches from the
w. This wave tracks across the region Wednesday evening through
the early overnight hours bringing another round of likely pops
along with a chc of embedded thunderstorms. Current 12z guidance
suggests the best instability remains offshore. However, the
potential for some strong to severe storms will need to be
monitored with 500mb height falls and strengthening/veering flow
at the 500mb level. Unsettled conditions continue into Thursday
with chc to likely pops continuing along with a chc of thunder.

Mostly cloudy to overcast Tuesday night through Thursday with
lows Tuesday night/Wednesday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
followed by highs Wednesday/Thursday ranging through the 70s.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
Trough axis tracks across the region Thursday night as the
surface low tracks just north of the region. Will keep mention
of chance pops across the northeast portion of the local area
Thursday night. Dry conditions and a clearing sky is forecast
Friday as the trough axis and deepest moisture push offshore and
westerly flow aloft commences. Temperatures Friday generally
around average in the mid to upper 70's. Upper level flow
becomes northwest Friday night and Saturday ahead of an upper
level ridge building over the ohio valley. A warm front lifts
into the region Saturday, providing a focus for showers and
thunderstorms, but overall moisture is expected to be limited.

Will keep only slight chance pops for the piedmont Saturday at
this time. Warmer, with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's.

Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
Saturday night as upstream convection develops and tracks along
the frontal boundary and into the region. However, spatial and
timing differences exist so have capped pops in the low end
chance range. Thereafter, unsettled conditions persist Sunday
through Monday as an upper level trough tracks across the
midwest into the eastern conus. A great deal of uncertainty
exists in the medium range guidance, but it appears moisture
return will be limited. Will keep mention of low end chance pops
in the forecast. Highs both days generally in the low to mid
80's.

Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/
Widespread ifr currently from ric to sby in a rain shield.

Meanwhile, over extreme SE va and NE nc, a line of thunderstorms
have developed. These will reach orf and ecg around 20z with
gusty winds and ifr conditions possible. This first batch of
rain will move through this afternoon, with conditions improving
MVFR or evenVFR by late this afternoon before the next batch of
moderate rain moves into the area late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Expect widespread ifr to redevelop later tonight and
continue through Tuesday morning. Could even see some brief lifr
especially at sby later tonight if fog develops, but will not
include in the terminal at this time.

Outlook... Degraded aviation conditions will be likely into tue
evening. Rain may become spotty for awhile Tue night through
midday wed, though the potential for lingering low clouds will
still be present. Another slug of deeper moisture and
showers/tstms possible Wed night along with a breezy S to se
flow. Dry weather not expected to return until late thu/fri.

Marine
Latest surface analysis centers a compact area of low pressure
over southeast virginia/northeast north carolina with a cold
front over the piedmont. Winds were generally from the east to
southeast at or below 15 knots, with a few gusts to around 20-25
knots in convection. Seas average 2-4 feet and waves 1-2 feet.

The compact area of low pressure slides offshore this evening,
slowly drifting to the northeast. The cold front stalls along
the coast. Winds north of the boundary become northerly, and
remain west to southwest south of the front with speeds
generally at or below 10 knots tonight. Low pressure lifts
northeast of the area Tuesday as another area of low pressure
develops along the stalled frontal boundary. That area of low
pressure lifts across southeast virginia Tuesday afternoon.

Could see an uptick in east to southeast winds Tuesday afternoon
ahead of the surface low, but pressure falls are not
particularly impressive. Have kept speeds around 15 knots
Tuesday afternoon. Have held off on SCA headlines at this time
due to low confidence based on differences in guidance and
marginal conditions. The low slides offshore Tuesday as the
front pushes offshore. Flow becomes north to northwest, but a
lack of cold advection results in sub-sca conditions. Seas could
build to 4-5 feet out 20 nm in the northern coastal waters
Tuesday night. Again, low confidence so no SCA headlines at this
time. Flow becomes onshore Wednesday as another area of low
pressure tracks into the ohio valley. Seas generally 2-4 feet
with speeds of 10-15 knots.

The next front pushes offshore Thursday night, with increasing
southwest winds Thursday ahead of the front. SCA conditions are
possible.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz/lkb
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz/lkb
long term... Sam
aviation... Mrd
marine... Sam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi30 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 68°F1 ft1013.4 hPa (-1.7)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi42 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 70°F1014.3 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi30 min NNE 9.7 G 14 67°F 69°F1 ft1013.3 hPa (-2.3)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi42 min SE 5.1 G 5.1
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi42 min SE 1 G 4.1 67°F 68°F1015.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi42 min NNE 12 G 13 1014.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi42 min E 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 67°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi42 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 67°F 68°F1013.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi42 min N 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 1015.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi60 min NNW 1.9 72°F 1015 hPa68°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi42 min NE 19 G 21 69°F 1011.7 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi42 min NNW 15 G 18 69°F 70°F1013 hPa
44072 47 mi30 min ENE 14 G 19 68°F 68°F2 ft
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi30 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 58°F1015.5 hPa (-1.5)
44089 48 mi30 min 60°F3 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi42 min 68°F 69°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi37 minNE 410.00 miOvercast67°F66°F97%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE7E7E665E6E3E4CalmCalmN4N4NE4N4NE5NE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE5NE4
1 day agoE12
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2 days agoSE6E3NE9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E3CalmCalmN5NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:02 AM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:17 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:36 PM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.40.20.10.20.40.60.91.21.21.210.70.40.1-0-00.20.50.91.21.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Great Wicomico River Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:43 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:37 AM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:54 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.50.30.10.10.20.40.711.11.110.80.50.30.100.10.30.711.21.31.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.