Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:23PM Saturday July 21, 2018 11:14 PM EDT (03:14 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 12:29AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 928 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Sunday...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers late this evening and early morning.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the late morning and afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..S winds 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..S winds 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 928 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strengthening surface low will track north through the area this evening. A broad area of low pressure will linger to the west of the area Sunday through the middle of next week allowing an unsettled pattern to persist.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220203
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1003 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track north into pa and western ny by Sunday
morning. A moist southerly flow, coupled with a low pressure
trough aloft over the southeastern u.S., will result in an
unsettled pattern through at least the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
As of 1005 pm edt Saturday...

sfc lo pres INVOF central ches bay ATTM will continue to track n
overnight... Resulting in ra pulling away. Widespread 1-3 inches
of ra I 95 to the coast from this event... Likely locally higher
amounts interior ERN SE va. Area of convection slowing moving
through SW va NW nc expected to weaken heading E overnight.

Keeping chc pops far SRN va interior NE nc through the night.

Otherwise... Partly to mostly cloudy across the local area. Ese
winds gusty to 25-35 mph invof ERN shore a little while longer
then become ssw as the lo pres pulls away to the n. Windspeeds
likely to wind down later on. Lows in the m60s along-w of I 95
to u60s-around 70f e.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday night
As of 320 pm edt Saturday...

deep southerly flow persists on Sunday, as upper low over the oh
vly gradually sinks southward into the southern appalachians by
sunset. As a result, more scattered, and mainly diurnal
shower TSTM activity expected. Under mostly cloudy skies, high
temps will make into the low to mid 80s, several degrees below
normal.

Aforementioned upper low will meander over the southeastern
u.S. Sunday night through Tuesday, allowing for continued deep
southerly flow, and continued chances for showers tstms across
the region. Rainfall Sunday night Monday expected to be across
the eastern half of the area. By Monday night Tuesday, atlantic
upper ridge begins to build westward, allowing main axis of
heaviest rainfall to shift into the central and western parts of
the area. Another 1-2 inches of rain is possible across the
area through Tuesday.

With deep moisture in place, skies will continue to be mostly
cloudy, with day time MAX temps still a few degrees below normal
both Monday and Tuesday. Highs both days mainly in the mid 80s.

Low temps Sunday night through Tuesday night mostly in the 70-75
degree range.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 320 pm edt Saturday...

decent model agreement continues through much of the extended period
as two well-established high pressure systems over the plains and
the atlantic keep rain chances sandwiched in between over our cwa.

Expect high-end chance to likely pops areawide through at least the
beginning of next weekend. Wednesday, likely pops stretch as far
east as the delmarva, especially during the afternoon evening.

Thursday morning, kept the best moisture and likely pops across the
northern half of the area... Before likely pops return for much of
our area Thursday afternoon evening. Friday and Saturday mornings
may be the "driest" portions of the extended, especially across the
western third of the cwa, but do expect daytime heating to spark
additional showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

The euro and GFS begin to diverge on late Saturday and Sunday, with
the euro trying to weaken the atlantic ridge and thereby decreasing
the opportunity for rainfall. Not only does the 12z GFS disagree
with a weakening atlantic ridge, but it also brings another low
pressure system through the ohio valley... Sending additional energy
our way and increasing rain chances Sunday into the start of the
following week. While "all day" rain does not look to be the case,
each day this week will feature shower TSTM chances to some degree.

Keeping an umbrella and some golashes handy would not be such a bad
idea.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s wed-sat, with the
warmest day being Friday. Spots that receive rainfall will be an
average of 5-8+ degf cooler. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s
will carry us through Sunday morning.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
As of 210 pm edt Saturday...

low pressure has lifted north of the forecast region along with
most of the rain. Rain has generally moved over northern va into
maryland and portions of the eastern shore. The low continues
moving northward into ERN pa and ny later tonight into sun
morning. Mostly MVFR conditions prevail over the TAF sites with
rain at sby. Winds continue to be gusty across the region,
especially the eastern half of the CWA with gusts to 20-25 kt.

These winds will subside overnight as the low lifts north.

Sunday through Tuesday will see unsettled conditions at all
terminals, with periodic showers tstms, with most tstms in the
diurnal 16z to 04z time frame. Overall flying conditions should
be MVFRVFR, with periodic ifr in precipitation, and possibly
low stratus during the overnight hours.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Saturday...

latest sfc analysis shows 1002 mb low pressure developing along
a stalled frontal boundary over NE nc. The low will advance
north through the fa tonight, with strong onshore winds out
ahead of it. Maintained SCA headlines for this, while issuing
smw's for an hour or two of gale force gusts north of the low.

Winds drop off a bit behind the low but still will see 15-25 kt
sustained winds into the overnight hours, so have extended the
sca over the northern bay a bit. Expect up to 10 ft seas out 20
nm this evening, subsiding overnight. For sun, persistent sse
flow at 10-20kt develops which will last through the middle of
next week as low pressure settles over the tennessee valley and
high pressure locates over the WRN atlantic. Did extend the sca
over northern coastal waters where seas AOA 5 ft are expected to
continue through at least Sun night. Elsewhere, additional sca
flags are possible late Sun into early next week for wind and
seas.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 pm edt Saturday...

with tidal anomalies reaching 1.0-1.5ft above normal today and
tonight, issued coastal flood advisories for the va northern
neck and bay side of the lwr md eastern shore for this evening's
high tide cycle.

In addition, a high risk of rip currents is expected over
northern beaches through sun, with a moderate risk over southern
beaches.

Equipment
As of 320 pm edt Saturday...

kdox radar is inoperable due to a failure of the motor. All
parts will not arrive until Tuesday july 24. Return to service
is unknown at this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Sunday for vaz075-077-
078.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Sunday for anz632-634.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Sunday for anz630-631-656-
658.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Tmg wrs
near term... Alb
short term... Tmg wrs
long term... Bms
aviation... Jef wrs
marine... Mas
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi35 min WNW 7.8 G 18 76°F 1000.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi45 min WNW 12 G 15
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi35 min W 21 G 25 70°F 1002.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi51 min NW 15 G 16
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi45 min E 7 G 9.9 76°F 82°F1001.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi45 min SW 26 G 29 1004.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi45 min WNW 6 G 8 73°F 80°F1002 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi45 min WSW 11 G 18 71°F 78°F1004 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi45 min E 13 G 17 73°F 1002.6 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi45 min WSW 4.1 68°F 1006 hPa68°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi45 min W 21 G 24 71°F 1005.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi45 min WSW 13 G 18 69°F 80°F1005.1 hPa
44072 47 mi35 min W 19 G 23 71°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi35 min ENE 12 G 16 75°F 1004.7 hPa
44089 48 mi45 min 76°F9 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi45 min 74°F 80°F1002.6 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi82 minNNE 42.00 miRain Fog/Mist74°F73°F100%1001.5 hPa

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1 day ago3SE4CalmE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5E6E9E8SE7E7E8SE9SE7E105SE10E7SE6E6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NE5NE9NE7NE6E8NE7NE75445NE4SE5E4E3CalmSE3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:37 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:36 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:07 PM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.30.30.40.60.811.11.110.80.50.30.20.20.30.50.81.11.31.31.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Great Wicomico River Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:02 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:02 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.10.20.30.60.80.910.90.70.50.30.10.10.10.30.60.811.21.210.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.