Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:25PM Monday October 15, 2018 7:31 AM EDT (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:26PMMoonset 10:25PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 655 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers, mainly this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 30 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 1 foot late. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ600 655 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. An area of high pressure is moving off the coast this morning. A cold front will approach the area Monday afternoon and move through the region on Monday night. A reinforcing cold front should move through the region on Wednesday before high pressure builds over the area for the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 151039
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
639 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the area tonight, then stalls over the
carolinas Tuesday. An area of low pressure moves along the front
Tuesday night, with high pressure building back in from the
north later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 330 am edt Monday...

latest analysis indicates surface high pressure centered well off
the northeast coast with an inverted trough of low pressure moving
ene across the tn ky valley. The associated warm front is slowly
lifting through the western carolinas. This front will continue to
slowly lift north through the region early this morning. Best
forcing is still expected to remain N of the local area early this
morning, but still left chance pops across the far N based on latest
trends and high-res model guidance. Temperatures this morning will
range from the low-mid 50s north to the lower 60s across the se.

Warm front will continue to lift north of the region through the day
today. Chance pops remain across the far north today closer to the
better forcing, while the remainder of the area likely stays dry
this afternoon. The area will be in the warm sector today, thus
temperatures will be warmer than the past couple of days. Highs will
range from the low-mid 70s across the NW to the low to even mid 80s
across the se.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
As of 330 am edt Monday...

a cold front approaches the region during the day today and will
cross the region later tonight into early Tuesday morning. Best
forcing will continue to remain off to the north, thus highest
chance of pops with the frontal passage will remain across the
northeastern portion of the region. Model soundings show very
limited instability overnight, thus left any mention of thunder out
of the forecast tonight. Cooler and drier air begins to work in
behind the front tonight, thus lows will range from the low-mid 50s
nw to the mid 60s se.

The cold front likely stalls south of the region over central north
carolina on Tuesday with weak low pressure multiple rounds of
precipitation moving along the boundary. High end chance to likely
pops remain in the forecast across the S SE closer to the boundary
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Chilly on Tuesday with highs only making
it up into the low-mid 60s for a majority of the area, temperatures
will likely struggle to make it above 60 across the nw.

High pressure to the north will help to move the stalled front off
the coast by Wednesday afternoon and ending the chance for pops
across the region. Highs range from the mid 60s N to near 70 s.

Wednesday night will likely be the coolest night of the season thus
far with cool high pressure building over the region and clearing
skies. Lows likely dip into the mid-upper 30s for the northwestern
part of the region and lower 40s elsewhere (away from the coast). We
will have to watch for the possibility of frost, especially
northwest, Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 230 pm Sunday...

high pressure builds into the area from the north through early fri
with it shifting offshore late in the day. This will bring a dry but
rather cool airmass back into the region. Lows Wed night in the 40s
to near 50 se. Highs thurs upr 50s-lwr 60s. Thurs night will be the
coolest of the period as the ridge axis settles over the region.

Lows from the mid-upr 30s NW (patchy frost???) to near 50 se. Clouds
increase late Fri but remaining dry. Highs in the 60s.

Low confidence for late next week given different solns btwn the
gfs ecmwf. Data suggests SRN stream moisture getting caught up and
ejected quickly NE along anthr cold front apprchg from the west.

Timing problematic but suggests more of a stratiformed rain event
starting Fri night and lasting into Sat night over most of the local
area before high pressure pushes the moisture SE sun. Will carry chc
pops (rain) at this time. Lows Fri night in the 50s. Highs Sat in
the 60s to nr 70 se. Lows Sat night mid 40s NW to mid 50s se. Highs
sun mid 50s NW to mid 60s se.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 700 am edt Monday...

a warm front is lifting through the region this morning, which
has brought scattered showers and MVFR ceilings to primarily
northern and western portions of the region. Rain showers will
continue to progress northeast this morning, impacting sby
through the beginning of the TAF period. Any MVFR ceilings
should dissipate this morning as clouds break up within the warm
sector. A stray shower cannot be ruled out across the north
through this afternoon closer to the front. A cold front will
cross late tonight into early Tuesday morning bringing another
round of sub-vfr conditions in the form of reduced ceilings and
the potential for showers. Winds will remain out of the s-sw at
around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts through the day today.

Winds shift to the N behind the cold front later tonight and may
become gusty to 20+ knots near the coast.

Outlook...

flight restrictions will continue into Tue (especially tue
night) as an area of low pressure moves along the stalled front.

Drier W improving conditions from midday Wed through fri.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Monday...

high pressure in the western atlantic is still exerting some
influence on the weather conditions across the mid-atlantic states
this morning with light southerly flow around 10 kt over the area
waters. As the surface high continues to drift slowly eastward an
approaching cold front will push toward the area allowing the
pressure gradient to tighten over the region. This will allow for a
gradual increase in the southwest winds over the waters later this
afternoon into tonight. Expect to see winds 15 to 25 kt develop
after 00z and continue once the front has moved through switching
the winds from SW to nw. As a result have issued a SCA beginning at
00z and continuing through 17z on Tuesday when the surge of cold air
should be tapering off and the winds beginning to relax.

An area of high pressure temporarily builds over the area late
Tuesday into Tuesday night before a reinforcing surge of cold air
pushes another cold front through the area late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. This second surge has some much colder and should
kick winds up well into SCA levels with winds winds of 25 to 30 kt.

With the event being several forecast periods away and with one
headline going up for the initial front have not raised a second sca
at this point, but would expect at a minimum the SCA will be needed
and if the winds get a little strong than currently forecast could
possible need a gale warning for Wed night into Thursday.

Once this surge of cold air weakens on Thursday as high pressure
builds into the area should see the winds diminish rather quick for
the end of the work week.

Hydrology
As of 900 pm Sunday...

numerous river flood warnings continue on the nottoway,
meherrin, appomattox basins, but levels have dropped below flood
stage on the james so have cancelled headlines there. Also, have
re-issued the areal flood warning for locations along the
mattaponi river where the level is still steady or slowly rising
at beulahville. See flwakq flsakq for site specific details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 1 pm edt
Tuesday for anz630>632-634-650-652-654-656.

Synopsis... Ajb lkb
near term... Ajb
short term... Ajb
long term... Mpr
aviation... Ajb
marine... Ess
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi32 min SSW 12 G 14 65°F 70°F1019.9 hPa (-0.3)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi32 min WSW 6 G 7 62°F 68°F1020.8 hPa (-0.0)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi32 min SW 14 G 16 68°F 71°F1 ft1021.8 hPa (-0.3)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi38 min W 5.1 G 8
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi32 min S 16 G 19 66°F 67°F1020.9 hPa (-0.5)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi32 min SSE 14 G 17 1021.9 hPa (-0.4)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi32 min W 6 G 8 62°F 72°F1021.1 hPa (-0.0)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi32 min SSW 5.1 G 7 67°F 65°F1021.3 hPa (-0.3)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi32 min WSW 15 G 18 62°F 1021.8 hPa (+0.4)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi62 min Calm 62°F 1022 hPa62°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi32 min S 16 G 18 69°F 1021.5 hPa (-0.0)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi32 min S 7 G 12 67°F 73°F1020.6 hPa (-0.3)
44072 47 mi32 min SSW 14 G 16 70°F 73°F2 ft
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi32 min W 14 G 19 64°F 71°F1021 hPa (-0.0)
44089 48 mi32 min 73°F3 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi32 min 62°F 69°F1021.6 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi39 minSW 810.00 miLight Rain63°F59°F87%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmN3SE3CalmE46Calm3NE3CalmS5S36S8S8S8S7S7S5S6S6S6SW8
1 day ago33NE3NE7CalmN8NW13
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4NW8NW65CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Sunnybank, Little Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Sunnybank
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:53 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:45 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:43 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.20.20.30.50.60.70.70.70.60.40.30.20.20.30.40.50.70.80.90.80.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:35 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.60.91.11.21.21.10.90.60.40.30.30.40.711.21.41.41.31.10.90.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.