Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Ridge, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:31PM Monday October 15, 2018 4:05 AM PDT (11:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:36PMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 213 Am Pdt Mon Oct 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am pdt this morning...
Today..NE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt...becoming east 5 to 15 kt this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Thu..W winds up to 10 kt.
Fri..NW winds up to 10 kt.
PZZ500 213 Am Pdt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Gusty offshore winds can be expected through late this morning in the suisun bay and the west delta as well as over the waters near coastal gaps. Winds will diminish this afternoon and then remain generally light to moderate through the forecast period. Mixed swell will continue with a long period southerly swell through mid week and a more moderate period northwest swell. A longer period northwest swell will arrive during the second half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Ridge, CA
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location: 37.9, -122.03     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 151024
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
324 am pdt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis Offshore flow will result in warmer and drier
conditions region-wide today, along with critical fire weather
conditions in the hills of the north and east bay through
midday. Gusty winds in the hills are forecast to diminish by this
afternoon. Dry weather is forecast to persist through the end of
the week, along with mild to warm daytime temperatures.

Discussion As of 3:20 am pdt Monday... North to northeast winds
have been locally strong and gusty in the north bay mountains
since last evening. Wind sensors near the summit of mount saint
helena in the far north bay (4300' elevation) have been
consistently reporting sustained winds of 40 to 60 mph, along
with gusts of 50 to 70 mph, since Sunday evening. Elsewhere in the
north and east bay hills, winds have generally been gusting
between 25 and 45 mph. Mesoscale models have indicated that winds
would peak between late last evening and about now, and then
gradually subside. Already seeing some evidence that wind speeds
are starting to come down, but the rate of decrease is expected to
be slow. A wind advisory remains in effect for the north bay
mountains through 10 am this morning.

Gusty offshore winds in the hills have brought a very dry airmass
into the north and east bay, where relative humidity values did
not recover at all overnight, and mostly remained in the range of
15 to 25 percent. Widespread red flag conditions have been
occurring across the higher elevations of the north and east bay
since yesterday afternoon. The red flag warning is set to end at
noon today when winds finally subside sufficiently. For more
details on critical fire weather conditions, see the fire weather
discussion below.

The dry airmass that has arrived across most of our area, and
continued light offshore flow through the day today, will mean
warmer temperatures today. Highs are expected to be in the 70s in
most coastal areas, and 80s across inland areas. A shallow marine
layer has managed to persist in coastal areas from san mateo
county southward, where offshore flow has not been strong enough
to mix into the boundary layer. Thus, our southern coastal areas
may not warm as much today as anticipated today, with
temperatures perhaps remaining in the 60s.

The current synoptic scale pattern consists of an upper ridge
centered to our north along the coast of the pacific northwest and
a trough to our south-southeast over the desert southwest and far
southern california. This rex block pattern is forecast to undergo
only minor changes as the week progresses. What this means for our
area is continued light offshore flow, mild to warm daytime
temperatures, and persistently dry air across most of our area.

The low confidence part of the forecast for the rest of the week
concerns the marine layer. The magnitude of offshore flow may be
too weak to prevent a shallow marine layer from persisting in
coastal areas (as is currently the case along our southern coast).

So, coastal temperatures will be difficult to predict this week.

Also, dry air and relatively long mid-october nights will mean
rather chilly nights for the inland valleys starting tonight, with
some of the coldest valleys expected to see overnight lows in the
upper 30s and lower 40s.

Longer range models indicate the blocking pattern will finally
break down by early next week, and we could see rain in the
northern portion of our area by next Tuesday (the 23rd).

Aviation As of 10:30 pm pdt Sunday... Upper level ridge is
building off the pacific northwest coast. Strong upper level
shortwave over the great basin digging southwest into southern
california. This has intensified the offshore flow over the north
and east bay hills. Based on amdar soundings and pirep reports llws
is likely occurring over sts oak sfo and lvk and should last
through 18z when winds aloft decreases. Although satellite image
shows a few patches of stratus over the san mateo coast the
offshore winds will keep it out of the mry bay area.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. North to northeast winds to 10 kt. Low
level wind shear through 18z with northeast winds to 25-30 kt
above 2000 feet after 06z.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR with stratus being held offshore.

Fire weather As of 3:15 am pdt Monday... Locally strong and
gusty north to northeast winds continue in the hills of the north
and east bay early this morning. Most locations have seen gusts of
between 25 and 45 mph overnight, but mount saint helena in the
north bay (elev. 4300 feet) has consistently been reporting
sustained winds of 40 to 60 mph, along with gusts between 50 and
70 mph. Mesoscale models have indicated that peak winds would
occur from late last evening through about the present time, with
winds then forecast to gradually subside from about 3 am through
midday. Some higher elevation locations have recently begun to
show a downward trend in wind speeds, so the models appear to be
correct. Relative humidity (rh) recoveries have been almost non-
existent overnight, with rh values holding in a range of between
15 and 25 percent across the north and east bay. The red flag
warning for the north bay mountains and east bay hills is due to
expire at noon today, and this seems reasonable as winds will
have decreased significantly by then. However, very dry air will
persist and afternoon rh values are expected to drop as low as 5
percent.

Latest local WRF model indicates there will be a modest increase
in north to northeast winds in the higher hills of napa and
northeast sonoma county tonight into Tuesday morning, but winds
tonight are not expected to be anywhere near as strong as they
are currently... Perhaps local gusts to 30 mph across some of the
highest peaks.

High pressure is forecast to maintain dry conditions and
relatively warm temperatures across the district through the
remainder of the week. However, after today winds are expected to
remain light (except for the brief uptick in winds locally in the
north bay mountains tonight as mentioned previously). In
addition, relative humidity values are forecast to gradually
increase as the week progresses.

Marine As of 2:13 am pdt Monday... Strong offshore flow has
developed over the northern waters as an upper level trough over
the great basin deepens into southern california. Gusty northerly
winds can be expected in suisun bay and the west delta and over
the coastal waters near coastal gaps. A long period SW swell will
continue to move through the waters during the first half of the
week while a moderate period NW lump continues to roll through. A
longer period northwest swell will arrive during the second half
of the week.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Wind advisory... North bay mountains until 10 am
red flag warning... North bay mountains and east bay
hills until noon
sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm until 2 pm
sca... Sf bay until 11 am
public forecast: dykema
aviation: W pi
marine: W pi
fire weather: dykema
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 11 mi35 min SE 2.9 G 6 65°F 65°F1018.2 hPa30°F
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 11 mi35 min NNE 14 G 17 67°F 64°F1018 hPa
PSBC1 - 9415115 - Pittsburg (Suisun Bay), CA 12 mi35 min NNE 11 G 16 63°F 1018.1 hPa
LNDC1 15 mi35 min N 5.1 G 8 69°F 1017.7 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 16 mi35 min S 2.9 G 5.1 62°F 1017.8 hPa
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 17 mi35 min N 8 G 8.9 65°F 1017.9 hPa
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 17 mi35 min N 8 G 11
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 17 mi35 min N 4.1 G 8 68°F 64°F1018 hPa
OBXC1 18 mi35 min 66°F 39°F
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 18 mi35 min N 6 G 7 60°F 1018.3 hPa
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 20 mi35 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 67°F 63°F1017.9 hPa
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 20 mi35 min WNW 1.9 G 6 66°F 1016.9 hPa
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 21 mi80 min NNE 16 67°F 1017 hPa
PXSC1 21 mi35 min 65°F 39°F
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 22 mi42 min W 1.9 64°F 1018 hPa
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 24 mi35 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 57°F 62°F1018.2 hPa
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 29 mi35 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 68°F1018.6 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 33 mi35 min 59°F3 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 44 mi25 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 58°F 58°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Union Pacific Rail Road Bridge (UPRR), CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord, Buchanan Field, CA6 mi12 minSSW 510.00 miFair62°F18°F18%1017.2 hPa
Oakland, Metro Oakland International Airport, CA17 mi12 minN 010.00 miFair66°F12°F13%1018.1 hPa
Hayward, Hayward Air Terminal, CA17 mi11 minS 410.00 miFair59°F28°F32%1018.8 hPa
Livermore, Livermore Municipal Airport, CA18 mi12 minN 010.00 miFair50°F27°F41%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from CCR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmNW3N6N7NE8N10N7--N3CalmCalmN10
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G17
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NE6NE5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW7W6SW9SW10W8S3S4N4N3N3N3CalmCalm
2 days agoSE3CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE74E6N5NE5N4NW8NW53Calm3S5CalmCalmS6S4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chicago, Suisun Bay, California
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Port Chicago
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Mon -- 01:53 AM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM PDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:19 PM PDT     1.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:36 PM PDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:34 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.30.20.41.11.82.63.33.63.63.22.72.2222.53.13.84.14.23.93.42.72

Tide / Current Tables for Stake Point .9 Mi NNW, Suisun Bay, California Current
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Stake Point .9 Mi NNW
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:41 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:50 AM PDT     0.71 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:36 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:56 PM PDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:35 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:58 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:13 PM PDT     0.67 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:34 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.40.60.70.70.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.300.30.60.70.60.40-0.3-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.