Saturday, September23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Ridge, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:03PM Saturday September 23, 2017 11:11 AM PDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:18AMMoonset 8:23PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay Suisun Bay The West Delta And San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 844 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Today..N winds 5 to 15 kt.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 15 kt.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Mon..W winds 5 to 15 kt.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt...becoming w.
Wed..NE winds 5 kt...becoming w.
PZZ500 844 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... High pressure offshore will bring light to breezy north to northwest winds today and through the coming days. The northwest swell train that first arrived several days ago will continue to weaken.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Ridge, CA
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location: 37.9, -122.03     debug

Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 231752
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1052 am pdt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis High pressure building near the west coast will result
in dry weather, along with a warming trend, through at least the
middle of next week.

Discussion As of 08:53 am pdt Saturday... Cool start to the
morning region-wide with overnight lows generally in the 40s away
from the immediate coast where low mid 50s were common. Looking
for today to be the start of a warming trend that will extend into
the upcoming work week. Under a sunny sky, temperatures will warm
into the 70s to near 80 inland with upper 60s likely at the
coast this afternoon. The ongoing forecast remains on track and
no updates are needed at this time. Please see the previous
forecast discussion below for additional details.

Prev discussion As of 3:30 am pdt Saturday... Clear skies
across our entire CWA this morning along with a squashed marine
layer and a moderate offshore flow. Temperatures are generally
running a few degrees cooler than yesterday thanks in large part
to drier air and light winds. One exception is napa where speeds
are still just enough to keep them currently at 50. Look for parts
of the north bay to drop into the upper 30s (40s will be common)
with the remainder of our CWA generally in the 40s. Low 50s will
be mostly confined to the coast.

Temperatures will quickly rebound as abundant sunshine will
combine with a synoptic pattern that will feature the longwave
trough overhead starting to progress to the east. In addition, 850
mb values will increase 1-2c by the afternoon. Highs will
generally be in the 60s at the coast with 70s to lower 80s
inland. Winds will mostly be from the north or northeast with
gusty conditions possible over parts of the north bay. That has
lead to an issuance of a red flag warning starting this afternoon
for the north bay hills. Please see the fire weather section
below for more information.

Temperatures will continue to warm each day for Sunday into
Wednesday as a ridge near the coast builds into our region and
850 mb values go up each day. The flow should remain offshore
while the marine layer will be non-existent. This will translate
into the warm weather making it down to the beaches. By Tuesday
highs will be in the 80s at most coastal spots with 80s and 90s
inland. Beyond that the range in solutions greatly increases
although the majority of the models keep very warm readings going
at least into Friday.

The big challenge for the forecast is just how warm will it get
both at the coast and inland. 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb
heights are not that impressive and anomaly values are generally 2
standard deviations or less, so did not feel comfortable going
with extremely high numbers that some of the ensemble members are
suggestion (such as 90s to the coast). The current forecast keeps
the heat threshold in the low category at the worst, however if
the forecast trends upwards that could easily move to the moderate
level. Anyone with outdoor plans or at a location without air
conditioning should keep a close eye on the forecast.

Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal conditions
continuing all of the way into the middle of october. No
precipitation is expected.

Aviation As of 10:50 am pdt Saturday... WidespreadVFR through
the duration at all TAF sites. Breezy onshore winds by the
afternoon, especially along the coast. Models all showing a few
low marine clouds attempting to sneak into the monterey region
around sunrise tomorrow, however, confidence is low.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. West winds 14-16 kt after 22z.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR. Some low clouds possible around

Fire weather As of 3:30 am pdt Saturday... A warming and drying
trend will start this afternoon and continue at least into at
least Tuesday morning. In addition to the warm temperatures there
will be lowering humidity values and periods of gusty northeast
winds across the north bay hills, especially across the napa
county hills and the hills of northern sonoma county. Fine fuels
will continue to dry given the lack of marine air and humidity.

Climatology also favors a greatly chance for critical fire
weather conditions for the weekend and next week.

Marine As of 10:50 am pdt Saturday... High pressure offshore
will bring light to breezy north to northwest winds today and
through the coming days. The northwest swell train that first
arrived several days ago will continue to weaken.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Sca... Mry bay from 2 pm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm from 2 pm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm from 2 pm
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm
public forecast: rgass bell
aviation: drp
marine: drp
fire weather: bell rww
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 11 mi42 min W 8 G 11 69°F 67°F1013.5 hPa34°F
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 11 mi42 min W 5.1 G 7 69°F 67°F1013.1 hPa
PSBC1 - 9415115 - Pittsburg (Suisun Bay), CA 12 mi42 min WNW 8 G 11 68°F 1012.9 hPa
LNDC1 15 mi42 min N 8 G 11 68°F 1013.4 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 16 mi42 min NW 4.1 G 14 70°F 1013.1 hPa
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 17 mi42 min N 8 G 9.9
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 17 mi42 min N 8 G 9.9 65°F 1013.5 hPa
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 17 mi42 min NNW 5.1 G 8.9 68°F 66°F1013.9 hPa
OBXC1 18 mi42 min 66°F 41°F
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 18 mi42 min N 7 G 12 71°F 1013.8 hPa
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 20 mi42 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 1012.5 hPa
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 20 mi42 min NNW 5.1 G 6 67°F 64°F1013.3 hPa
PXSC1 21 mi42 min 65°F 48°F
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 21 mi87 min N 8 68°F 1013 hPa38°F
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 24 mi42 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 63°F1013.9 hPa
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 29 mi42 min NNW 6 G 8 64°F 67°F1013.4 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 33 mi42 min 61°F4 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 44 mi82 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 57°F5 ft1013.7 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Union Pacific Rail Road Bridge (UPRR), CA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord, Buchanan Field, CA6 mi79 minN 010.00 miFair68°F41°F38%1012.2 hPa
Oakland, Metro Oakland International Airport, CA17 mi79 minSSW 310.00 miFair62°F51°F67%1013.8 hPa
Hayward, Hayward Air Terminal, CA17 mi78 minSW 410.00 miFair64°F46°F52%1014.4 hPa
Livermore, Livermore Municipal Airport, CA18 mi79 minS 310.00 miFair61°F45°F56%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from CCR (wind in knots)
Last 24hr43NE5NE6N6N3CalmNW6W10W6SW4SE4CalmSE3SE3S4S3S4CalmSE4S3SE4CalmCalm
1 day agoNW7S7SW8W8
2 days agoW8

Tide / Current Tables for Suisun Point, Carquinez Strait, California
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Suisun Point
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Sat -- 04:31 AM PDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:17 AM PDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:17 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:19 PM PDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:24 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:18 PM PDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Stake Point .9 Mi NNW, Suisun Bay, California Current
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Stake Point .9 Mi NNW
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Sat -- 12:36 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:03 AM PDT     0.78 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:54 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:38 AM PDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:17 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:21 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:42 PM PDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:48 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:23 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:03 PM PDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.