Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:56PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:26 PM EST (17:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 6:46PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 947 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until noon est today...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Tuesday evening...
Rest of today..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 947 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build to our south through tonight. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will return for the second half of the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201502
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1002 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure moves across the southeastern states through
tonight, then slides offshore through Tuesday morning. Low
pressure will move northeast along the mid atlantic coast
Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore
Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
Current forecast on track with only minor changes made to the
grids this morning.

Latest weather analysis reveals ~1026mb surface high pressure
over the mid-south. The surface high will slide east across the
carolinas this afternoon, before sliding offshore late tonight.

Lingering mid clouds have abated over northern mid-atlantic delmarva
this morning, and expect plenty of sunshine later this morning
and this afternoon. Highs today mainly in the upper 40s to near
50 on the eastern shore... To lower 50s inland. Mainly clear
tonight with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The sfc high slides off the coast to begin the day on Tuesday.

Resultant strengthening return flow initiates a short-lived
warming trend, with highs 60-65. After a sunny start, some mid
to high clouds begin to filter in from SW to ne. A quick moving
northern stream system lifts from the tn valley into the
northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday, pulling a cold front
east to the atlantic seaboard by Tuesday night. Weak sfc low
lift n-ne along the carolina mid-atlantic coast Tue night and
wed. Moisture from the system lifts north with the best lift
remaining along the coast. Expect a period of showers mainly
along and east of i-95 after midnight Tuesday night early
Wednesday morning. Likely pops along the bay and coast... Chc
pops inland. Chc pops along the md coast Wed morning then drying
out. QPF generally under one quarter inch. Lows Tue night in
the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed in the 50s except near 60
across nern nc.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
High pressure builds into the area Thursday resulting in a dry but
cool holiday. Lows Wed night in the 30s to lwr 40s se. Highs thurs
in the upr 40s to lwr 50s.

Another area of low pressure develops off the SE coast late in the
week but it appears the high to the north keeps any significant
moisture south of the local area. Dry and continued cool fri.

Highs 50-55. Next cold front approaches from the NW late sat
then crosses then area early sun. GFS wetter than ECMWF so will
go with low chc pops Sat night for now. Warmer Sat ahead of it
with highs 55-60. Lows Sat night in the 40s to near 50 se.

Cooler behind it Sun with highs mid 40s-lwr 50s.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions across area terminals this morning, withVFR
conditions to prevail through the 12z TAF period and into
Tuesday evening, as high pressure builds back into the region
later today through tonight.

Outlook: high pressure slides offshore early on Tuesday. A
weak trough of surface low pressure develops along the carolina
coast Wednesday with scattered showers possible at area
terminals by later Tuesday into early Wednesday. A brief period
of sub-vfr conditions are possible over the terminals during
this timeframe.

Marine
Update... W-nw winds still 15-20kt along eastern side of ches bay
and all coastal waters. Gusts to around 25 kt north of parramore
island. Seas are persistently 3-5ft and have therefore extended
sca flags for SRN waters to end at 1000 am (same time as nrn
waters) this morning.

Previous discussion... Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions
anticipated the rest of today through tonight as high pressure
becomes centered over the carolinas and slides offshore late
tonight. W-nw winds becoming s-sw tonight with sub-sca speeds. A
canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front into the
ohio valley tue... Approaching the waters late Tue night.

Pressure gradient tightens over NRN half of area during this
time. SW winds should average 10-15kt north 5-10kt south Tue and
diminish through Tue night as wind direction becomes more
westerly late. Seas 2-4ft north 2-3ft south this aftn through
tue night. Waves generally 1-2ft. Meanwhile, low pressure
develops off the carolina coasts and tracks northeast... Passing
well east of CAPE hatteras by Wed aftn. Next chance for sca
conditions should be Wed wed night for all waters except york,
rappahannock, and upper james rivers. Seas 3-5ft; waves 3-4ft.

High pressure rooting itself over the ohio valley to tn mid-
mississippi valleys Wed night through Thu night will allow
another low pressure wave to track northeast from the southeast
coast to an offshore location farther east of CAPE hatteras
during this time. Best pressure gradient appears to stay well
south of the local waters, therefore sub-sca n-nw wind speeds
are anticipated. Seas slowly subside from 3-5ft Thu to 2-4ft thu
night fri. Waves 2-3ft subsiding to 1-2ft during same
timeframe. High pressure builds into the mid-atlantic region for
fri with light and variable winds expected.

Equipment
The fan on the temperature sensor at the richmond ASOS (kric)
has likely failed, causing erroneous temperature readings. The
contract observer is augmenting the official METAR observations
(hourly METAR and specis). However, the 5-min high resolution
data is automated directly from the sensor and is subject to
reporting this erroneous data. As such, do not rely on the 5 min
temperature data from kric until our techs can repair the
sensor, likely today.

Kdox remains down. Parts are on order and expected to arrive
Wednesday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for
anz630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Alb mam
near term... Mam mpr
short term... Mpr mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Ajb mam
marine... Bmd
equipment... Mpr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi38 min W 8 G 14 46°F 51°F1023 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi38 min NNW 12 G 13
NCDV2 29 mi44 min WSW 8 G 13 47°F 51°F1022.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi26 min W 12 G 14 46°F 54°F1 ft1022.3 hPa (-0.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi38 min W 8.9 G 16 47°F 54°F1022.3 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi56 min W 4.1 49°F 1025 hPa24°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 41 mi38 min NW 8.9 G 14 45°F 1023.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi26 min NW 9.7 G 12 47°F 54°F1 ft1023.7 hPa (+0.0)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi38 min WNW 13 G 14 44°F 46°F1023.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi26 min WNW 14 G 18 46°F 53°F2 ft1026.9 hPa (+2.7)

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM EST     1.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:52 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:35 PM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:46 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:35 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.41.61.61.41.10.70.40.10.10.20.61.21.61.91.91.81.51.10.70.30.10.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:40 AM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:02 PM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:46 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:50 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.71.71.61.30.90.50.20.10.20.511.51.92.121.71.30.80.40.20.10.30.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.