Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:25PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:42 PM EDT (03:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:52AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1032 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Rest of tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A surface boundary will stall across the waters this afternoon and weaken by tonight. Another weak front will approach late Tuesday...also stalling and weakening. A third cold front will finally push through Wednesday night, with high pressure following on Thursday. A warm front will lift northward on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 300216
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1016 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
A cold front stalls north of the region late tonight through
midweek. Meanwhile, weak low pressure tracks across north
carolina tonight and off the outer banks Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Pop QPF forecast updated to reflect latest radar trends and 00z
hires guidance. Also lowered temps a bit tonight.

Previous discussion...

latest surface analysis places weak low pressure now well off
the DELMARVA coast, with associated sfc warm front lifting
across the DELMARVA at 19z. To the west, a slow moving cold
front crossing the central appalachians from the mid-south ohio
valley. Aloft, deep occluded cyclone continues to spin over the
upper great lakes into ontario, with the associated surface
cold front extending from the great lakes back into the central
plains.

Latest goes-16 low to mid level WV imagery showing increasing
moisture pushing across the area from central nc, with a
deepening CU field across the lower mid-atlantic this afternoon.

Southern half of the area is largely capped, but have noted a
few isolated showers storms as expected along the E va coast in
association with sea bay-breeze. Therefore have a 20% pop along
and east of i-95 for the late aftn hours. Sky cover averages
partly to mostly cloudy for the late afternoon hours, with a
lull in precipitation still expected early in the evening.

However, expect showers to re-develop by mid to late evening,
owing to an area of weak low pressure lifting across central nc
toward SE va NE nc after 00z 8pm edt tonight W associated
shortwave energy pushing across the southern third of the area
within wsw flow aloft. Forecast pops area generally 20-40%
across southern SE va into NE nc late tonight, with a narrow
area of likely pop installed along and north of the albemarle
sound. Thunder mention has been maintained overnight due to the
presence of some mid-level instability. Becoming mostly cloudy
overnight with lows ranging through the 60s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
Weak diffuse sfc cold front becomes aligned parallel to w-sw
flow aloft Tuesday, stalling immediately n-nw of the region.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned broad surface low pushes off the
northern outer banks Tuesday morning, with a lull in pcpn once
again anticipated for much of the morning early afternoon.

Another period of isolated to widely sct showers and t-storms is
anticipated on Tuesday. However, areal coverage will be confined
primarily to the SE cwa. Model consensus indicates that forcing
will be a bit more muted across the local area, with stronger
shortwave pushing across SW to NE across eastern nc Tuesday,
just southeast of the local area. Therefore, pop remains in
20-40% range over far SE va NE nc, and 20-30% for the nrn
neck ERN shore. Highs Tuesday range from the mid 70s to around
80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland, after morning lows
ranging through the 60s.

There will be little change in conditions Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Good model agreement exists that deep upper trough over
ontario upper great lakes sharpens Tuesday night and Wednesday.

However, there remains a lack of any trigger for convective
development during this period with mid-level flow becoming
downslope by afternoon. Therefore , have again capped pops at no
higher than slight chance Tuesday night, and mainly dry (except far
se) on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night range through the 60s, followed
by highs Wednesday in the upper 70s around 80 at the coast to the
mid-upper 80s inland.

Mid-level trough axis will shunt surface cold front across the area
Wednesday night. Given later timing, have maintained only a slight
chc for showers and storms for now. Post-frontal w-nw flow and
surface high pressure building from the west should combine to yield
a dry forecast on Thursday. After early morning lows in the upper
50s to mid 60s, look for highs Thursday in the low to mid 80s
inland... Mid to upper 70s lower eastern shore and along area
beaches.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Another unsettled period ahead as the models show a frontal boundary
stalling across the region next weekend with several waves of low
pressure moving along it. This combined with upr level energy and a
good low level moisture feed results in chc pops late Friday through
Sunday night, except likely Sat afternoon and evening as that seems
to be the time frame of the most significant low. Data suggests
locally heavy downpours with another widespread 1-2 inch rainfall
psbl. Highs 80-85. Lows mid-upr 60s.

Latest trends show the system moving offshore Mon with weak high
pressure building into the region. Kept slght chc pops for now until
better confidence of removing pops. Cooler with highs 75-80.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr to start off the 00z TAF period. With a frontal boundary in
the vicinity and light onshore flow tonight, expect another
round of ifr MVFR stratus, and possibly low vsbys, especially
over NE areas. Also expect some rain over extreme SE va NE nc.

Conditions will slowly improve through the day Tuesday, but the
stratus may continue into the day near the coast. Scattered
mainly late day and evening thunderstorms are possible Tuesday.

Outlook... Isolated showers for late Wednesday. Dry weather is
forecast Thursday. Chances for convection return Friday
afternoon and become a likelihood on Saturday afternoon. Patchy
fog or stratus is possible each morning within a few hours of
sunrise.

Marine
Have hoisted an SCA late this evening for the coastal waters
north of chincoteague as seas near buoy have risen to around 5
ft in easterly flow. A frontal boundary remains stationary in
the vicinity of the waters overnight. Winds remain ese 10-15 kt.

Seas will 2-3 ft south and 3-5 ft north. The front washes out
along the coast Tuesday as another weakening front approaches
from the west. Winds generally SE (north) to SW (south) at 10
kts or less. The front pushes just offshore late Tuesday night
as flow becomes west to northwest at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 ft.

The next cold front crosses the waters Wed night. Only weak caa
progged behind it resulting in continued sub-sca conditions. High
pressure builds over the waters for the end of the work week.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tides combined with an onshore flow will
result in another round of near to minor flooding issues with
tonight's high tide cycle. Thus, coastal flood advisories
statements have been issued to cover the next high tide cycle.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for mdz024-025.

Coastal flood advisory from 3 am to 8 am edt Tuesday for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for vaz084-086.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz650.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mas mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mas lsa
marine... Jdm mpr
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi43 min SSE 12 G 14 65°F 72°F1017.3 hPa (+2.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi43 min SSE 17 G 19
NCDV2 29 mi43 min ESE 14 G 19 69°F 74°F1016 hPa (+2.1)
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi23 min SSE 16 G 19 65°F 1016.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi43 min SE 14 G 18 65°F 69°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi73 min E 1.9 67°F 1019 hPa65°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 41 mi43 min S 18 G 20 65°F 1018.2 hPa (+2.5)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi23 min SE 12 G 14 65°F 1017.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi43 min ESE 12 G 15 62°F 73°F1018.4 hPa (+2.5)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi23 min SE 14 G 16 67°F 1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi48 minESE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3E3CalmCalmCalmW5CalmNW3NW3NW3CalmN3CalmE5NE4E4E3NE11
G16
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3NE3NE3E5E9E7E6E3NE4NE8CalmCalmNE4NE4CalmN3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3SE4SE3S4SW5CalmS3NE4NE5E6E4NE5E3NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:03 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:09 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.30.91.522.22.11.81.30.80.3-0-0.2-00.40.91.51.81.81.61.30.80.40.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:02 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:31 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.71.41.92.32.321.61.10.50.1-0.2-0.10.20.81.31.81.91.81.51.10.60.2-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.