Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:27 PM EDT (03:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:54AMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1058 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
.severe Thunderstorm watch 258 in effect until 1 am edt Monday...
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 kt...becoming ne, then becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers. Isolated tstms late this evening, then scattered tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se in the evening, then becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1058 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak boundary will remain stalled out near the waters through Monday. The front will then lift back north by Tuesday as high pressure off the southeastern united states coast regains control through the middle of the week. A weak cold front will stall out near the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 262334
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
734 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will drop across the region tonight into
memorial day before return back north of the area on Tuesday,
followed by a big warm up for the remainder of the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 730 pm edt Sunday...

latest msas has a cold front across pa ohio with a sfc trof just
west of the ches bay. First round of pulse tstrms has diminished
across the local area with svrl reports of trees down and marginal
hail over the past svrl hrs. See lsrakq for details.

Next will be the convective complex along and ahead of the apprchg
cold front later this eve thru the pre-dawn hrs. Latest high res
data has the NRN zones ERN shore getting the better organized storms
with little activity across the far south. Pops highest across the
ern shore where the best support for anything organized will be.

Otw, sct convection with the fropa. SPC continues to have the nrn
half of the fa in slight risk with a marginal risk down to the
va nc border. Threats continue to be large hail damaging wind
gusts. Would also expect a good deal of lightning as well. Lows
in te upr 60s-lwr 70s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday
As of 315 pm edt Sunday...

the front will drop farther south of the area during mon, under
a partly to mostly sunny sky. Not quite as warm in onshore
flow. Mainly just a slight to low end chance for showers tstms.

Highs on Mon will range thru the 80s to near 90, cooler near
the water.

The warm front will lift back north acrs the area Mon night into
tue morning. Upper ridging will remain anchored over the
southeast with sfc ridge setting up offshore. Remaining warm and
moderately humid. Partly sunny and a bit warmer once again.

Maintained a slight chc for mainly diurnally-driven thunderstorms
along the eastern third of the area on Tuesday.

Warmest day of the next week looks to be Wednesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
As of 315 pm edt Sunday...

big story in the extended will be continued very warm to hot
conditions across the region. An upper level ridge remains in
control at the start of the forecast period, amplifying across
the region on Wednesday. With w-sw to SW downsloping flow
during the day and 850mb temps in the 20-23c range, expect
temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s across much of
the area on Wednesday. Temperatures may even touch 100 degrees,
especially across far southern portions of the fa. Our one
saving grace is that decent mixing in low levels should keep
apparent temps near air temperatures. Thus, still don't expect
heat indices to be much of a factor. Warm and dry wed... But will
maintain slight chc pop for now for a stray shower or storm
given strong heating. But given strong downslope and no apparent
convective trigger, would expect coverage to be low at best.

Low temperatures on Wednesday night only drop into the low to
mid 70s.

By Thursday, the upper level ridge axis begins to break down push
east of the local area as a more potent shortwave develops and moves
across the midwest and great lakes. Thursday will likely be another
very hot day with temperatures making it up into the mid 90s across
much of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the
increase as the shortwave and associated cold front approach and
cross the region late Thursday into early Friday. This boundary then
stalls lingers near to just south of the region into the weekend
bringing the potential for more unsettled conditions. Temperatures
cool down slightly Friday into the weekend, but are still expected
to remain above average as highs in the mid to upper 80s are
anticipated.

Aviation 00 Monday through Friday
As of 730 pm edt Sunday...

latest msas has a cold front across pa ohio with a sfc trof just
west of the ches bay. First round of storms which were near ric sby
over the past few hrs have dissipated.VFR conditions to start off
the forecast period even at ric where one of those storms occurred.

Next will be the convective complex along and ahead of the apprchg
cold front later this eve thru the pre-dawn hrs. Latest high res
data has the NRN zones ERN shore getting the better organized storms
with little activity across the far south. Went ahead and included
vcts at ric btwn 03z-06z given the latest high res data model. Sby
has the best chc of seeing organized convection btwn 02z-06z with
confidence high enough to include a tempo group for tstms there.

Expect MVFR CIGS in any TSTM with vsbys dropping AOB 2sm in lclly
heavy downpours.

Winds variable blo 10 kts ahead of the front, shifting to the
n-ne Monday behind the fropa.

Outlook:
vfr conditions continue thru tue, although conditions may
briefly drop to MVFR in any shwr or tstm.

Marine
As of 320 pm edt Sunday...

mostly quiet across the marine area this afternoon with generally
light and variable winds (5-10 knots). Waves ~1 ft in the bay and
seas 2-3 ft offshore. There remains a chance for showers and storms
to drop east and southeast late this afternoon into the overnight
hours with strong winds being the main marine hazard.

Winds will become southeasterly this evening ~10 knots as compact
low pressure approaches from the nw. A weak cold front will follow
this low, allowing winds to become NW ~10 knots late tonight. Winds
swing around to the NE on Monday and then S 10-15 knots by Tuesday
afternoon as high pressure aloft remains anchored over northern gulf
coast. Waves in the bay will generally run 1-2 ft while seas
offshore will stay in the 2-4 ft range through mid week.

Climate
As of 315 pm edt Sunday...

* records for today Sun 5 26:
* richmond: 94 (1991) (record high min 70 in 2011)
* norfolk: 98 (1880) (record high min 74 in 2011)
* salisbury: 92 (2011) (record high min 69 in 1984)
* eliz city: 95 (1953) (record high min 74 in 2011)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg 2019 (thru 5 25) most (year)
* richmond: 2 days 3 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day none so far 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 4 days 9 days (1944)

Equipment
As of 730 pm edt Sunday...

kakq 88d radar has return to normal operations.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mpr
short term... Mam tmg
long term... Alb mam
aviation... Mpr
marine... Lkb rhr
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi46 min Calm G 0 77°F 74°F1013 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi40 min NW 19 G 24
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi52 min Calm G 0 76°F 73°F1012.7 hPa
NCDV2 29 mi46 min Calm G 1 76°F 75°F1012.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi40 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 73°F1012.3 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi46 min S 9.7 G 12 76°F 75°F1011.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 41 mi40 min S 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 1013.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi46 min SW 7 G 8.9 78°F 76°F1013.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi40 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 74°F 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE8E3CalmCalmE6E6E4SE3CalmS6SE5S5SE8E9SE8SE6SE5E4CalmSE4
2 days agoS5SW4SW5SW5SW5SW6SW5W5NW3N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
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Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:16 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:50 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:56 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.40.611.31.51.61.51.31.10.80.60.40.30.40.711.31.51.51.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
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Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:17 AM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:11 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.40.60.91.31.51.71.71.51.310.70.50.40.40.711.31.51.61.51.31.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.