Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:00PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 2:13 PM EDT (18:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 10:13PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 132 Pm Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
This afternoon..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft...subsiding to flat after midnight.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will weaken overhead through Wednesday as hurricane maria drifts north to northeast off the north carolina coast. A cold front will pass through the area Thursday and a reinforcing cold front will pass through late Friday into early Saturday. High pressure will return for the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and gale force winds are possible Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed again Friday night into Saturday. Refer to the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 261750
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
150 pm edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
Maria will track northward off the north carolina coast while
gradually weakening today through Wednesday. Maria will then
push east northeast and out to sea Wednesday night and Thursday.

High pressure will build into the region later Thursday through
Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of late this morning, hurricane maria was located about 175
miles SE of hat moving north at 7 mph. Latest radar showed a few
bands of light showers well ahead of maria, rotating onshore
acrs portions of SE va and NE nc. Otherwise, NE winds were
spreading low level moisture across much of the cwa.

Maria will continue to push N during today, and perhaps
slightly W of due n, as an upper low drops sewd acrs fl.

Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result
in a continuation of 20-50% pops,mainly along and E of i-95
(though will have 20% pops into the southern piedmont as well).

Qpf will be minimal for most areas, with highest amounts over
extreme SE va and NE nc where highest pops are fcst. Highs today
will range mostly from the upper 70s to lower 80s under a
mostly cloudy sky (except for partly sunny conditions over the
far W nw). Breezy along the coast with a NE wind 15-20 mph,
with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Maria reaches about 160mi ese of CAPE hatteras by this evening 00z
wed, around 140-150 miles E of CAPE hatteras by 12z wed, and
then 150-180 miles ene of CAPE hatteras by 00z thu, as some
spread remains in the guidance. NHC has maria weakening to a
tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will
result in minimal rainfall acrs SE va NE nc (and coastal md to a
lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less, with the highest
amounts over extreme SE va and NE nc. There is now a good
possibility for strong wind gusts south of CAPE charles on the
coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from orf va beach
to the currituck county beaches (including the currituck sound).

Therefore, we have upgraded tropical storm watch to a tropical
storm warning for CAPE charles light to the va nc border (656).

High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will
also occur along the coast. Will maintain pops of 20-40% east of
i-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE nc Tue night wed), with slight chc
pops into the piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from
around norfolk va beach southward into coastal NE nc. The
biggest impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach
erosion along near the coast. Highs on Wed will range fm the
upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast, to the mid 80s inland,
after morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

By 12z thu, maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ene of CAPE hatteras, then pushing well out to sea by late in
the day. Will carry lingering slight chc pops (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs on Thu will range fm the upper 70s
to lower 80s along the coast, to the lower to mid 80s inland.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the great lakes and northeastern us
Friday and Saturday. This trough will serve to escort maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night. This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday. But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across new
england and down the eastern seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. To mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Scattered showers have been moving in from the coast
periodically affecting orf phf ecg. Mainly ifr CIGS continue
across SE va, while they have genly lifted to MVFR ~1500 ft at
ric sby ecg. Gusty NE winds prevail across the SE through
tonight Wed (gusts to 30-35 kt possible at orf ecg). Skies
become variably cloudy inland on Wed (stay mostly cloudy through
midday near the coast). Winds diminish and skies become mostly
clear Wed night into early Thu though N winds stay gusty at the
coast.

Outlook: generally dry and quiet from Thu into the upcoming
weekend. Will probably see a brief period of clouds Fri night
with a secondary cold frontal passage, but conditions look to
remainVFR.

Marine
Update as of 1030am edt... Upgraded to gale warning for the
mouth of the bay and anz654 from CAPE charles to parramore
island.

Given the track of maria and the broadening wind field... Tropical
storm warnings remain in effect from CAPE charles light to
currituck beach light. With the track staying far enough
offshore... It still does not look like sustained TS winds will
be in the bay... But there should be frequent gusts to 35 kt for
a period tonight into Wed at the mouth of the bay. As such... Have
upgraded to gale warnings for the mouth of the bay, as well as
marine zone anz654 from north of CAPE charles to parramore
island thru 7pm & 10pm Wed respectively. Winds seas will start
to improve Wednesday night as maria rapidly moves east. Scas are
in places for the rivers and northern 2 zones over the bay.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures currently 0.5 to 1 ft today as northeast to
east winds begin to increase. Expect the departure to slowly
steadily increase as maria moves N through wed. Expect
departures of 2 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday across the southern bay
and areas south of CAPE henry along the ocean... W 1-1.5 ft
departures northern bay into the northern coastal waters. These
values are similar to what we saw last week in jose. However...

the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft less this week than last
week in jose. This may keep any coastal flooding confined to
minor during the time of high tide (through wed).

As with jose... The main concern may end up being high surf and
potential coastal erosion. Will issue a high surf advisory for
the entire coastal waters starting tomorrow as the swell
associated with maria moves into the region. Am still thinking
that nearshore waves of 8-11 ft are possible starting Tuesday
and continuing into Wednesday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for mdz025.

Nc... Tropical storm warning for ncz017-102.

Va... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for vaz098>100.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz630>632-
635>638-650-652.

Gale warning until 7 pm edt Wednesday for anz634.

Tropical storm warning for anz633-656-658.

Gale warning until 10 pm edt Wednesday for anz654.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Lkb tmg
short term... Jdm tmg
long term... Jdm jef
aviation... Lkb
marine... Alb jdm
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi44 min NNE 8 G 11 75°F 78°F1014 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi44 min NNE 11 G 13
NCDV2 29 mi44 min NNE 2.9 G 7 75°F 79°F1014 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi24 min NNE 14 G 18 74°F 1013.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi44 min N 12 G 17 73°F 77°F1014.3 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi44 min N 6 76°F 1014 hPa72°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 41 mi44 min NNE 12 G 17 73°F 1015.4 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi24 min NNE 19 G 23 75°F 1012.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi44 min N 8 G 14 76°F 77°F1014.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi24 min N 12 G 14 73°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi79 minN 9 G 1410.00 miOvercast76°F68°F78%1015.2 hPa

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1 day agoNE4NE5NE6NE6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE7N6NE6NE8
2 days agoNW5N5N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW4N4NE5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:59 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:58 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:44 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.50.81.21.51.61.61.41.20.90.70.50.40.50.81.21.61.81.91.81.51.31

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:14 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.81.11.51.71.71.61.41.10.80.60.40.50.81.11.51.821.91.71.51.10.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.