Friday, November17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:58PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:37 PM EST (00:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:48AMMoonset 4:50PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 632 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Saturday through late Saturday night...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft. Showers.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 632 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore tonight through Saturday. A strong cold front will move across the waters late Saturday night and high pressure will build to the south for Sunday through Monday. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gale force winds are possible over the waters this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180002
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
702 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

High pressure traverses the area through tonight. The high
slides offshore Saturday with a cold front approaching the
region from the west late. The cold front moves across the area
late Saturday night into Sunday morning, producing scattered

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
1023mb high pressure is centered directly over the local area
this afternoon. Other than some passing high clouds, benign wx
is on tap through tonight with the high gradually sliding SE and
offshore by daybreak sat. Chilly tonight with lows from near
30 low 30s inland and interior eastern shore to around 40 at the
immediate coast.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Turning milder again on Saturday due to return flow around the
offshore high. Increasing pressure gradient due to advancing
midwest cold front will allow for breezy conditions late morning
into the afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 mph (highest immediate
coast and eastern shore). Compressional warming out ahead of
the approaching cold front will drive maxima well into the
60s... To around 70 across SE va NE nc, with low to mid 60s
across northern zones. Quick dewpoint surge with warm front
lifting across the area Sat aftn night. Low level s-sw flow
quickly increasing pw values into the 1"-1.25" range after
00z sun. A brief window for showers coincident with narrow axis
of low-level convergence forcing ahead of the frontal passage late
sat evening (west) into early Sunday morning (east of i-95)
will require likely pops (60-70%) most areas Sat night, mainly
west of ric metro before 4am, then reaching the coast before
sunrise Sun morning. Convective parameters remain weak with the
fropa, owing to the timing and the progressive nature of the
system. Therefore, will keep thunder mention out of the
forecast. Lows Saturday night from the mid 40s piedmont to the
mid 50s coast. Some concern for gusty winds with and in the
immediate wake of the frontal passage. Gusts to 30-40 mph
(higher possible md counties and northern neck) possible late
sat night and Sunday morning.

Cold front pushes offshore early Sunday. After some lingering
clouds east (morning shower possible over coastal areas),
subsidence behind the front should result in a mostly sunny sky.

Winds diminish late afternoon as the gradient slackens. Cooler
with highs in the 50s... To near 60 SE coast.

Cool sfc high pressure centered over the tn valley Sunday night
will expand eastward into the mid-atlantic on Monday. We can
expect a clear sky and below normal temperatures. Lows Sunday
night in the mid upr 20s piedmont to the mid upr 30s coast.

Highs Monday in the upr 40s to low 50s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
High pressure moves offshore of the region during the day on Tuesday
allowing for a warming trend. Highs on Tuesday will climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s and lows fall into the upper 30s to low 40s
inland (mid to upper 40s at the coast). Temperatures remain near
normal during the day on Wednesday before a mainly dry cold front
crosses the area Wednesday late afternoon evening. Introduced a
slight chance of pops with the passage of the front, but moisture
appears fairly limited at this time. A cooler airmass moves into the
region for thanksgiving and the end of the work week behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal for thanksgiving
day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows dropping into
the lower 30s away from the coast. An offshore trough develops on
Friday which will bring a chance of rain for coastal areas.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will slide offshore Saturday afternoon, a strong cold
front approaches the region Saturday night.VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period with only some high clouds. Clouds
will increase late Saturday as the front approaches the region.

Winds will be gusty ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, gusting
out of the southwest in excess of 20 knots at times.

Outlook: the cold front crosses the area late Saturday night into
Sunday morning with the possibility of sub-vfr ceilings and rain
showers with the frontal passage. High pressure builds back into the
area Sunday morning allowing for a return toVFR conditions through
the remainder of the weekend. Gusty northwest winds are expected
behind the front on Sunday morning afternoon. High pressure
gradually slides off the southeast coast Monday and Tuesday withVFR
conditions prevailing.

Quick moving weather systems will lead to some rapidly changing
conditions over the next 24-48 hrs. Sfc high moves offshore tonight
shifting winds from the N AOB 10 kt this evening to the SW after
midnight. Sca's for seas early this evening will end as seas subside
to 2-4 ft.

Pressure gradient quickly increases as a warm front pushes north
across the region sat. S-sw winds quickly ramp up into SCA levels
by the afternoon with gusts to 30 kts over most areas. Data suggests
offshore gusts to 35 kts possible across the coastal waters but not
until after 00z sun. Even the "old" boston technique suggests best
mixing not until after FROPA Sunday morning. Sharp pressure rises
behind it will combine with strong CAA to produce widespread high
end sca's to low end gales across the waters sun. Issue with this
forecast package is one of confidence given the nnw winds behind the
front should be stronger than the ssw winds ahead of it.

Thus, decided to go with a gale watch for the coastal waters sat
night into Sunday. Left strong sca's over the bay sound and rivers
for now. This way it gives later shifts the flexibility to upgrade
to a warning or keep strong scas. Ended the headlines at end of 4th
period per local policy, although sca's will likely be needed early

Tides coastal flooding
Gusty SW winds may push a few areas into the action stage during
Saturdays high tide cycle. Appears bishops head will approach
minor flooding thresholds then.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm Saturday to 4 pm est Sunday for

Small craft advisory from 10 am Saturday to 4 pm est Sunday
for anz632-634.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Saturday to 4 pm est Sunday for

Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
for anz654-656-658.

Gale watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for


near term... Jdm
short term... Jdm mam
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajb jdm
marine... Bmd mpr
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi68 min SW 1.9 40°F 1022 hPa35°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fri -- 12:19 AM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:58 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:41 PM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:50 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:37 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
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Fri -- 05:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:13 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:08 PM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:50 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:52 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.