Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:30PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 11:55 AM EDT (15:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:30AMMoonset 7:16PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1032 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely through the day...then showers through the night.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay this evening. High pressure will build into the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. This system will exit the region Saturday. Small craft advisories are possible Thursday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 281318
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
918 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches from the west today and crosses the
region late this afternoon and tonight. High pressure builds in
from the north on Wednesday. The high retreats to the northeast
on Thursday as the next system approaches from the west. A
strong system is expected to impact the region on Friday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Area of showers with embedded tstms now pivoting NE through the
peninsula/middle peninsula/northern neck and approaching the
mid-upper bay. Elsewhere, SPC mesoanalysis and lightning trends
suggest there will not be any tstms through at least noon so
have taken mention of storms out of the forecast for the rest of
the morning (though likely pops remain for awhile most zones).

Expect diminishing pops to 20-40% most areas from late morning
through early-mid aftn, then as the upper level trough
continues to push into the area, will eventually see some
redevelopment of showers/tstms with likely pops most areas
again after about 18-19z. SPC continues to highlight a marginal
risk for most of the CWA (except over the far ne). The current
showers are likely to have a negative effect on the severe
threat later today, due to only a small window of opportunity
for the atmosphere to recover after this morning pcpn exits.

Thinking best chance for any strong storms will be from about
19z through 01z over the far southeast portions of va/and
northeast nc where the atmosphere may not be as worked over as
other areas. Shear is also expected to be greatest in this
region (effective shear to 30-35 kt), while areas farther nw
generally have <30 kt of effective shear since they will be more
displaced from the track of shortwave aloft. It will remain
mild today despite plenty of clouds. Highs in the low to mid
70s, except cooler 60s at the ERN shore beaches.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Thursday/
Will limit chance pops to areas along/east of i-95 by late this
evening as the piedmont dries out, then drying out all the way
to the coast after midnight with lows mainly 50-55 f (except upr
40s ERN shore). Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed after some
early clouds (especially south) as drier air moves in from the
n. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs
60-65f near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well
inland. Upper ridge axis quickly moves back into the region by
thu, allowing return of mid/high clouds during the day. With
fairly low mixing and overrunning clouds, expect a cooler day
with highs mainly ranging from the mid 50s to around 60. Kept it
dry through the day despite the increase in clouds ahead of the
next system.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
A complex low pressure system approaches from the west late thu
night and early Fri before slowly crossing the region
Friday/Friday night. Guidance in good agreement with respect to
potential for widespread showers/tstms and potential for heavy
rain during fri. Will limit pops to 20-30% along west of i-95
prior to 12z Fri before increasing to 60-80% all areas during
fri (highest west). Will keep similar pops Fri night with a slow
exit of pcpn expected. Dry wx and high pressure returns for sat
aftn thru Sun night. Yet another system may approach fm the
west late mon.

Highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s fri, in the 60s to near 70
sat, in the mid 60s to lower 70s sun, and in the 60s to near 70
mon. Lows in the 40s Thu night, in the upper 40s to mid 50s fri
night, in the 40s Sat night, and in the mid 40s to near 50 sun
night.

Aviation /13z Tuesday through Saturday/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout
the day today, with the potential for a few storms to be strong
late this afternoon and early evening. Brief sub-vfr cigs/vsbys
will be possible in the heaviest showers/storms. Winds will
remain s-sw around 10 kt.

Outlook: unsettled weather conditions will continue thru
Tuesday evening due to the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. Dry/vfr conditions return on Wednesday as winds
shift to the north. The next storm system is expected to
approach the area Friday bringing the next chance of adverse
aviation conditions.

Marine
Latest obs reflect ssw flow across the waters. Surface high pressure
continues to linger along and just offshore of the mid-atlantic and
southeast coast this morning, as a cold front approaches from the
ohio and tennessee river valleys. Pressure gradient will gradually
tighten today, allowing gradual increase in winds this afternoon and
tonight... Before the front crosses the waters late this evening and
overnight. Ssw winds become nnw post frontal late tonight and
continue through wed, as high pressure starts to build in fm the n.

While experimental wind probs are indicating a small chance for a
few gusts to low end SCA in the ches bay Wednesday morning through
midday, still do not expect predominate SCA conditions to be met
thru wed. However, winds will be marginal for much of the
morning and early afternoon in the lower chesapeake bay and
currituck sound, and will need to watch marginal SCA gusts
during that time. Will also need to watch encroaching sse swell
on Wednesday, owing to developing system crossing south of
bermuda this morning. Nwps and wavewatch in general agreement
in depiction 5 ft seas mainly south of hatteras and offshore of
the mid-atlantic waters, and thinking at this time is much of
this energy stays well offshore. Thus, will hold significant
wave heights at 3 to 4 ft, just below SCA thresholds. Waves 1-2
ft today... Building to 2-3 ft on wed.

Otherwise, cool high pressure will continue to build in from the
north Wed night into Thu morning, before it slides out to sea thu
aftn and night. Nne winds 10-15 kt Wed night and early Thursday,
become NE 5 to 10 kt by Thu aftn. E-ne winds 5 to 10 kt Thu night
become SE 10-15 kt by Friday morning, and southerly by afternoon as
a warm front lifts across the waters. Seas subside during this
period of diminishing winds wed-thu, but increase again Friday
afternoon and evening ahead of next cold front, which crosses the
waters Saturday morning. Seas build back to 4-5 ft, highest toward
outer waters in pre-frontal south flow. A brief period of sca
headlines is possible over the coastal zones, mainly for seas. Seas
subside back into the 2-4ft range over the weekend in nnw flow aob
15kt as surface high pressure rebuilds over the waters.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm/lkb
short term... Jdm/lkb
long term... Tmg
aviation... Jdm
marine... Mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi38 min SW 8.9 G 11 63°F 54°F1011.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi38 min W 5.1 G 5.1
NCDV2 29 mi38 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 50°F1010.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi36 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 54°F 1010.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi38 min SW 11 G 15 60°F 48°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi86 min SSE 1 62°F 1014 hPa59°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 41 mi38 min SW 9.9 G 15 60°F 1011.8 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi36 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 1013 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi38 min S 8 G 9.9 56°F 54°F1011.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi36 min S 9.7 G 12 53°F 1012 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi61 minS 410.00 miFair63°F63°F99%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12
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SE4S4S4S3S4S4S6S6S5S4S5S4S5S4SE3S6S6
1 day agoN7N7N7NE8NE8E7NE7NE4NE6E7E7E4E3E4CalmE3E3S4S4S5S6S8SE11
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2 days agoSW10
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S5SE6S5S5S4S3S4S3CalmSE3S4S4NE6NE6NE6NE4NE8E8E4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
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Tue -- 02:17 AM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:15 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:46 PM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:31 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.8221.71.30.80.3-0-0.2-0.10.30.91.51.921.81.510.50.1-0.2-0.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
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Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:30 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:13 PM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:46 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.12.221.61.10.50.1-0.2-0.20.20.71.41.92.121.71.20.70.2-0.2-0.200.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.