Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:24PM Sunday May 28, 2017 6:35 AM EDT (10:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:47AMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 432 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A nearly stationary front will extend across the mid atlantic region before a cold front moves into the area Monday. Weak high pressure can be expected Tuesday, followed by another weak front on Wednesday. High pressure will return on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 280817
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
417 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will lift across the mid atlantic this afternoon
into tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest on
memorial day and stalls north of the region into Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
The current surface analysis depicts a weak cold front in
vicinity of the va nc border as of 08z. The main mid-level
shortwave trough that triggered severe tstms yesterday aftn has
pushed well offshore. However, some lingering shortwave energy
has managed to trigger iso showers tstms across SRN va over the
past few hours. This activity should diminish by sunrise.

Temperatures early this morning range from the upper 50s over
the md ERN shore, to the low mid 60s into central va, with upper
60s near 70 south of the front. Some patchy stratus and or fog
is possible early this morning.

This shortwave trough pushes offshore later this morning, with
shortwave ridging building over the mid-atlantic through midday.

The surface cold front remains near the va nc border through
midday with N NE flow developing north of the va nc border in
the wake of the mid-level trough and surface cold front. Cooler
over the ERN shore with highs in the low mid 70s. Highs
generally in the low mid 80s for central SRN va and interior ne
nc.

The surface boundary returns newd into the region later this
aftn into the evening and through early overnight hours. This
will combine with another shortwave trough resulting in an
increasing possibility of showers tstms approaching from the
west during the late aftn and through the evening and early
overnight hours. 0-6km bulk shear rapidly increases to 35-45kt
after 18z resulting in a chc of a strong to severe tstms once
again mainly along and S of the i- 64 corridor. The main threats
are damaging wind gusts and large hail. The shortwave trough
pushes offshore after 06z, with pops rapidly diminishing sw-ne
thereafter. Partly to mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the
60s.

Short term Monday through Tuesday
A cold front will be crossing the mountains Monday morning, and
then continue ewd Monday aftn. Additional showers tstms are
possible memorial day aftn evening. However, the 28 00z model
runs are trending drier with less coverage, mainly confined to
far SE va NE nc, and pops have correspondingly been dropped to
the 20-30% range. Increasing wsw flow aloft ahead of a trough
digging across the great lakes will yield 0-6km bulk shear
values of 40-50kt. This will combine with ~1000 j kg of 0-1km
mlcape resulting in the potential for severe thunderstorms
despite limited coverage and mainly across NE nc. Partly sunny
on memorial day with highs in the low mid 80s, with the
potential for near 90 se, and 70s along the atlantic coast of
the ERN shore.

Current 00z guidance has trended toward the aforementioned cold
front becoming aligned parallel to wsw flow aloft and stalling
immediately N of the region to perhaps pushing into the md ern
shore. The chc for aftn evening showers tstms will diminish
Tuesday with low chc pops confined to far SE va NE nc. Forecast
highs Tuesday range from the upper 70s low 80s to the mid 80s
inland W of the bay, after morning lows in the 60s to low 70s
se.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
The long term period beginning Tuesday night features near normal
temperatures and generally low chances for precipitation. Weak and
poorly defined frontal boundaries affect the area and confidence in
the details of the precipitation forecast are rather low.

Thunderstorm chances Wednesday were kept relatively low as weak high
pressure builds in. A frontal boundary moves in for Thursday and
settles just off the coast Friday and Saturday. Highest pops (30 to
40 percent) are currently set for southern portions on Friday
afternoon and evening.

High temperatures are forecast to range from 80 to 85 Wednesday and
Thursday and the upper 70s to around 80 Friday and Saturday.

Readings will be a bit lower near the coast. Lows are expected to
range from 60 to 65.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
The current surface analysis shows a weak front in vicinity of
the va nc border, with light N NE flow north of the boundary and
light S SW flow south of the boundary. Stratus and or fog is
expected to develop near the boundary overnight, with phf ric
having the best chc of prevailing ifr conditions, with short-
lived ifr conditions possible at ecg. Somewhat drier conditions
at orf sby should result in prevailingVFR conditions.

Showers tstms are expected again this aftn evening as another
upper level system interacts with the surface boundary. Sct
coverage of showers tstms is expected after 18z, with more
widespread coverage after 21z for central SE va NE nc, and then
spreading newd toward sby after 00z. Strong to severe storms are
possible once again with severe wind gusts and hail being the
main threats. A minimal chc for aftn evening showers tstms will
persist Monday through Thursday. Stratus and patchy fog is
possible each morning.

Marine
Latest surface analysis places a cold front near the virginia
and north carolina border with high pressure centered off the
northeast coast. The result is onshore flow north of the
boundary and south to southwest flow over the north carolina
waters. Speeds are generally at or below 10 knots. Waves
generally 1 foot and seas 2 feet. The frontal boundary remains
in the vicinity of the north carolina and virginia border today
as a wave of low pressure pushes offshore late today into
tonight. Flow remains onshore at 10-15 knots today, becoming
south to southeast this evening, and then west to southwest late
tonight. Seas build to 2-3 feet, with waves of 1-2 feet. The
front lifts northward Monday as low pressure lifts into eastern
canada. A trailing cold front stalls near the coast Monday
afternoon. Model differences with waves of low pressure and the
placement of the front surface trough result in a challenging
wind forecast Monday and Monday night, with flow generally west
to southwest at or below 10 knots. Waves remain 1-2 feet and
seas 2-3 feet. The weak front remains near the coast Tuesday as
a stronger cold front approaches from the west. The next front
pushes across the waters Tuesday night. A lack of cold advection
expected to keep conditions sub-sca Tuesday night. High
pressure builds into the region Wednesday, centering over the
waters on Thursday. High pressure slides offshore Friday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz jao
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz
long term... Lsa
aviation... Ajz
marine... Sam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi47 min ESE 9.9 G 12 66°F 70°F1010.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi47 min E 6 G 8
NCDV2 29 mi47 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 69°F1010 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi35 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 68°F1 ft1009.8 hPa (-0.7)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi53 min E 8.9 G 9.9 65°F 67°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi65 min Calm 65°F 1011 hPa64°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 41 mi47 min ESE 6 G 8 64°F 1012.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi35 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 69°F1 ft1010.2 hPa (-0.5)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi47 min ENE 8 G 8.9 64°F 69°F1011.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi35 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 64°F1 ft1012.3 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi40 minNE 37.00 miFair63°F62°F100%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3E3SE4SE3S4SW5CalmS3NE4NE5E6E4NE5E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3
1 day agoSW6SW12SW8
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W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS4SE7SE6S4S6SW8S5S7S7SW12
G27
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Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:09 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:15 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:19 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.81.52.12.32.21.91.40.90.4-0-0.2-0.10.30.91.41.81.91.71.30.90.40-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:36 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:30 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:06 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:34 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.422.42.42.21.71.10.50.1-0.2-0.20.10.71.31.821.91.61.10.60.1-0.2-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.