Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:01PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 2:01 AM EST (07:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:55AMMoonset 10:02PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1237 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 4 ft...subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft... Subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 1237 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will cross the waters tonight into early Tuesday, with a cold front poised to pass through Tuesday night. High pressure will then take hold through Wednesday night ahead of another low pressure system likely to impact the waters late Thursday into Friday. Small craft advisories will may be needed for portions of Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 130528
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1228 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast across the carolina coastal
plain overnight. The low will push off the mid atlantic coast on
Tuesday, with a cold front slowly crossing the local area by
Tuesday night. High pressure builds over the northeast states on
Wednesday, with another area of low pressure affecting the
region on Thursday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 940 pm est Monday...

nearly steady widespread ra continues across the fa... And
additional ra is headed NE into the fa for the overnight hours.

A coastal front has moved just inland along nc the past few
hours and will likely nudge into far SE va overnight.

Meanwhile... Low level cad remains locked in over the rest of the
local area. Will be watching for isold convection overnight
which may ride NE along the coast in NE nc SE va (kept slgt chc
t). Otherwise ra will continue to fall.

Temps likely remain steady overnight inland ranging throug
the 40s... And rise back through the u50s to m60s along the
coast... Before falling a few degrees toward morning.

Short term 6 am this morning through Thursday
As of 400 pm est Monday...

the initial low upper trough lift NE of the area Tue morning,
with moist SW flow aloft continuing ahead of an approaching cold
front. Pcpn intensity should wane as the deepest moisture and
strongest lift depart to the ne. However, pops will remain ~40%
n to ~60% SE through noon, with another wave of moisture riding
along the boundary in the aftn (with pops increasing back to
60-80%), before beginning to taper off across the NW in the late
aftn early evening. Highs on Tue will range from around 50 f nw
to the mid 60s extreme se.

The cold front pushes through the area Tue evening, with drier
air arriving from the nnw Tue night. Pops gradually taper off,
with some partial clearing possible across the N while remaining
mostly cloudy s. Lows will range fm the lower to mid 30s N to
the lower 40s se. Cool ~1034mb high pressure builds N of the
region on wed, with another low pressure system organizing in
the ERN gulf ahead of a trough over the lower ms valley. This
should result in partly to mostly sunny conditions n, with
partly to mostly cloudy conditions s. High temps will be well
below seasonal averages mainly in the mid to upper 40s. The next
system in the gulf then begins to lift N NE Wed night into thu,
as a potent upper low moves into the lower ms valley. Models
differ a bit on timing, the 12z 12 NAM being much quicker with
the arrival of precip moisture compared to the GFS ecmwf. Given
the amplification in the flow, think the NAM is probably too
fast so will keep pops rather low until after 06z thu, then
bring overrunning precip in from SW to NE into thu. Will have
likely to categorical pops all areas thu, with some potential
for a mix with snow sleet from roughly 09-15z Thu morning in the
nw zones. Soundings suggest just a cold rain elsewhere. Highs
thu will remain well below normal except over the SE where the
highs get into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Most of central va can
expect highs in the 40s to lower 50s, with the NW piedmont
counties only into the upper 30s lower 40s for highs.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 400 pm est Monday...

while there are subtle timing differences between the 12z 12
guidance (gfs is fastest, ECMWF cmc are slightly slower), model
consensus indicates that rain will end from SW to NE early fri
morning as the aforementioned low pressure system departs to the ne.

Have likely pops through 06z Fri tapering to slight chc-chc pops by
sunrise. Skies clear out during the day on Friday as drier air
filters into the region. The airmass directly behind the low
pressure system will not be that cold for mid-november, as forecast
highs are in the mid 50s to near 60 on fri. An area of high pressure
briefly builds into the area on Sat before moving offshore by late
sat night. Another shot of cooler air comes arrives from the NW on
Sunday as canadian high pressure builds from the midwest to the
southeast from sun-mon. Highs remain in the mid 50s NW to near 60 se
on Sat before cooling into the upper 40s-low 50s on Sun mon. Morning
lows will be in the low-mid 30s inland low 40s near the coast from
sat-sun before cooling into the upper 20s NW mid-upper 30s in far se
va NE nc on mon.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 1230 am est Tuesday...

low pressure moving NE along the mid atlantic coast overnight
will keep a variety of unsettled conditions across the local
area. Expect widespread ifr lifr conditions in rain fog across
the piedmont while a SE wind off the water has MVFRVFR CIGS at
coastal TAF sites along with periodic rain fog. Expect these
conditions to continue past 12z as the low tracks NE along the
coast. Could also see some tstms at orf ecg and gusty south winds
(15-25 kts) after 08z depending if these areas get into the warm
sector of the system. Still not enough confidence to include
thunder at this time, but did indicate pcpn more showery than
stratiformed towards sunrise there.

The unsettled conditions continue Tuesday as abundant lingering
moisture results in periods of rain drizzle and fog before a
cold front crosses the region towards 00z. Winds shift to the
w-nw and become gusty behind this boundary Tuesday night with
slowly improving cigs.

Outlook...

vfr conditions expected Wed as high pressure makes a brief comeback.

Another low pressure system is likely to impact the area late wed
night through Thu thu night, bringing a return to ifr MVFR flight
restrictions. Drier air returns Fri sat.

Marine
As of 400 pm est Monday...

afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure departing to the
northeast as low pressure organizes along the north central gulf
coast in response to a digging upper trough across the central
conus. Winds across the marine area are running between 5-10 knots
from the east but will veer to east southeast and increase to 10-15
knots later this evening as low pressure begins to approach the
area.

A complex scenario is on tap for late tonight and early Tuesday as
low pressure moves northeast across central and eastern nc and into
southeast va and the delmarva. Small craft advisories begin late
tonight for all bay and offshore zones except the york and
rappahannock rivers where lower confidence in meeting SCA criteria
exists. Models agree that a strengthening area of low pressure will
cross the area but differ in the exact strength and track of the low
pressure center which results in some significant differences in
marine impacts. The gem and GFS show an east-northeasterly low track
with more of a glancing blow to the marine area while the NAM shows
a more inland track that allows winds to increase into gale warning
territory. For this package will side with the farther right track
and hold conditions at SCA levels with the mention of occasional
gusts to gale force in the advisory wording for the relevant zones.

Seas will build quickly tonight to 4-6 feet offshore with waves in
the bay generally 2-4 feet.

Winds will back off temporarily during the late morning and
afternoon tomorrow and veer to westerly and eventually northwesterly
with the passage of the surface cold front. Cold air advection will
allow winds over the marine area to surge back into SCA range with
15-25 knots expected behind the front. Waves in the bay will run 3-4
feet while seas offshore remain 5-6 feet. Another low pressure area
is progged to affect the area for the end of the work week with
periods of wind to sca-levels and seas running 5-8 feet. Will extend
the SCA offshore through at least Wednesday evening but will refrain
from introducing new headlines for the bay until tonight's hazard
ends.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz634.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz632-
638.

Small craft advisory until 8 am est this morning for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz630-
631.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Wednesday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Alb
short term... Lkb tmg
long term... Eri
aviation... Mpr
marine... Rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi31 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 55°F 53°F1017.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 22 mi37 min SE 13 G 15
NCDV2 29 mi31 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 46°F 52°F1017.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi31 min SE 14 G 16 56°F 1016.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi31 min E 11 G 12 52°F 56°F1017.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 37 mi31 min SE 4.1 58°F 1017 hPa58°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 41 mi31 min E 6 G 7 50°F 1018.4 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi31 min SSE 16 G 19 58°F 1018.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 48 mi31 min E 11 G 13 52°F 50°F1017.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi31 min 51°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi66 minN 01.25 miRain50°F50°F100%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmN3N3NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3N3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4E4SE4SW3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW9NW6
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W7NW5NW4CalmNW4NW5NW5CalmNW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
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Tue -- 05:04 AM EST     1.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:40 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:23 PM EST     1.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.81.11.41.61.51.31.10.80.50.40.40.50.91.31.61.81.81.71.41.10.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:31 AM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:55 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:50 PM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:53 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.71.11.41.61.61.51.20.90.60.40.40.50.81.21.61.91.91.81.61.310.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.