Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 3:07 PM EST (20:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:36PMMoonset 3:43AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 119 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ600 119 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the coast later today. High pressure returns Wednesday, with another cold front crossing the region Wednesday night. Strong high pressure builds into the northeast and mid atlantic states Thursday into Thursday night. The high moves farther off to the northeast on Friday as the next system approaches from the southwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201933
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
233 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Weak high pressure builds across the area from the west
tonight into Wednesday, before another strong cold front passes
through the area later Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure
builds across the area for thanksgiving day into Friday. A low
pressure system then impacts the region Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 230 pm est Tuesday...

latest surface analysis shows that the cold front is currently
across the SE part of the forecast area. Radar imagery
indicates a few sprinkles across the middle peninsula and moving
into the chesapeake bay. These should quickly move offshore by
late this afternoon as the front moves offshore. Otherwise,
expect the clouds to clear out this evening as downslope flow
continues. Cold dry advection across the area as the high builds
in will allow temps to drop into the lower 30s west of i-95 and
the md eastern shore, and mid-upper 40s se.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
As of 230 pm est Tuesday...

quiet day on Wednesday with the high pressure in control. Actually
see some weak warm advection aloft ahead of the clipper system
currently over the northern plains. However, with the weak wedge in
place am still expecting temps to only be in the low to mid 50s. The
cold front associated with the clipper system and leading edge of
canadian air will pass across the area Wed night. Still looking at a
very cold thanksgiving and thanksgiving night with highs on Thursday
only in the mid 30s north to lower 40s south, which is below mos
guidance. No record temperatures are expected, but temperatures
are forecast to be up to 25 degrees below normal for this time
of year. Friday morning temps will be in the around 20 NW to
upper 20s SE as the high pres ridge is centered over the area.

Certainly could not rule out mid- upper teens NW of ric with the
expected very dry airmass. Even the beaches will likely see
temps at freezing by Friday morning. Slightly warmer on Friday,
under another day of sunshine, but still temps only in the 40s
with the cold ridge still in place across the region.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 230 pm est Tuesday...

no major changes to the extended forecast. Models still in good
agreement in widespread rain moving into the area ahead of the
system moving out of the SE states Saturday. Will continue with a
mixture of rain possible sleet far NW late Friday night as the
column may be cold enough initially for a brief period of frozen
precip at the onset well NW of ric. Otherwise, just moderate rain on
the day Saturday with up to an inch of rain possible. Doubtful this
could cause any new flooding issues though. The area quickly dries
out Saturday night then remains dry through Sunday night before a
complex low pres system over the great lakes impacts the region for
sun night into Monday bringing another chance for rain. We will
be on the warmer side of this system, but thunder is not
forecast right now due to the strong wedge remaining in place at
least at the onset.

Temps through the weekend into early next week will be warmer than
thu Friday, and closer to normal especially by Sunday Monday
with highs in the upper 50s lower 60s and upper 30s to 40s.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 130 pm est Tuesday...

vfr conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will see
some cumulus this afternoon at around 4000 ft, but these should
quickly dissipate after sunset. Gusty NW winds this afternoon
may gust to 20 to 25kt especially at ric and sby.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through Fri with high pressure in
control. Next system may bring ifr conditions to all sites on
Saturday.

Marine
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

w SW winds of 10-15 kt prevail early this morning out ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west. The front will move through
the area early this aftn, shifting winds to the nw. Cold advection
and pressure rises in the wake of the front are not overly
impressive, but should see winds increase to 15-20 kt over northern
sections later this aftn and probably another few kt by early
evening. Will continue with SCA headlines for the bay north of new
pt comfort and also added the coastal waters north of parramore
island for expected gusts to ~25 kt and seas building to around
5 ft at the outer edges of the 20 nm zone by this evening.

The winds and waves seas should subside diminish below sca
thresholds by early Wed morning as weak high pressure briefly builds
over the waters. A strong cold front is expected to cross the area
wed night, with strong sfc high pressure building south into the
region for thanksgiving day. The pressure gradient is not excessive,
but cold advection is impressive for this time of year with deep
mixing over the relatively warm waters likely. Thus, went a few kt
stronger than guidance and anticipate strong SCA conditions for much
of the area (probably enough that all zones may need headlines).

Seas build to 5-7 ft and bay waves to ~ 4 ft. Conditions briefly
improve for fri, then winds ramp up again with the next system
sat.

Hydrology
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

a river flood warning remains in effect for sebrell on the
nottoway, and an areal flood warning is in effect for the
mattaponi at beulahville. See flsakq or flwakq for more site-
specific information.

Climate
***record low maximum temps for nov 22***
ric... 36 (1929)
orf... 39 (2008)
sby... 36 (1989)
ecg... 41 (1972)
***record low temperatures for nov 23***
ric... 20 (2008)
orf... 23 (2008)
sby... 15 (2008)
ecg... 19 (1937)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for anz650-652.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for anz630-631.

Synopsis... Mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Mrd
long term... Mrd
aviation... Mrd
marine... Lkb
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi37 min 56°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi37 min NW 7 G 12 54°F 53°F1014.3 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi37 min NNW 13 G 15 53°F 52°F1014.3 hPa
OCSM2 31 mi187 min 2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi37 min NW 11 G 16 53°F 51°F1014.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi37 min N 15 G 17 1015 hPa

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi13 minNW 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast55°F39°F55%1014.1 hPa

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Last 24hrS8S4S5S7S6SW6S8S6CalmSW4SW5SW4SW6SW4S4SW5W7W6--W6NW7NW9NW11
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1 day agoSE6SE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW5S3SW5W7W7S6
2 days ago4NW7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3W4NW3NW4NW3N7NW3NW4N3NE3E7E5E8SE6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Island
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Tue -- 01:07 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     0.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:43 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:01 PM EST     0.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.100.10.30.50.70.90.90.80.70.50.30.20.100.20.40.60.80.80.80.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:21 AM EST     3.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:59 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:42 PM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.81.82.83.43.83.73.32.51.70.90.40.10.51.32.233.53.63.22.51.60.80.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.