Friday, January18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:10PM Friday January 18, 2019 5:45 PM EST (22:45 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 4:29AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 400 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning...
Through 7 pm..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly ne swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds, building to 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 30 kt late in the morning, then becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Light freezing spray after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Light freezing spray in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
ANZ600 400 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Weak high pressure moves over the mid-atlantic region tonight. Low pressure tracks immediately north of the area Saturday night. An arctic cold front crosses the area Sunday, followed by dry and much colder weather Sunday night through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 182101
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
401 pm est Fri jan 18 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure moves farther offshore tonight with weak high
pressure moving over the mid-atlantic region. An arctic cold
front crosses the area Sunday, followed by dry and much colder
weather Sunday night through Monday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 330 pm est Friday...

stubborn low clouds across the north have finally lifted north mixed
out. The damage has likely been done to MAX temps, however, so
lowered hourly and daily MAX temps for this region. Slowly
increasing clouds are forecast for the overnight period as low
pressure to the west approaches the region. Low temperatures
will be in the mid 30s for most locations overnight.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 330 pm est Friday...

the upper level pattern amplifies sharply as the next storm system
takes shape across the mid south on Saturday with increasing clouds
and chances for rain from west-to-east by the afternoon. Increasing
southerly winds on Saturday will allow temperatures to warm despite
increasing clouds with low to mid 50s across the south and low 40s
for areas farther north. There is a slight chance for a rain snow
mix early Saturday afternoon as precip moves in across the far
northwest (fluvanna and northwestern louisa counties) before warmer
air arrives from the southeast. Left this chance out of the weather
grids for now but if precip moves in faster than forecast we may
need to revisit this possibility. Rain chances increase into the
likely categorical range Saturday night and early Sunday as low
pressure approaches from the west. The low will cross the region
Sunday morning with a sharp cold front in its wake. Rapidly falling
temperatures and strong northwesterly winds Sunday afternoon will
support the chance for some isolated mix snow showers on the back
side of the precip. The concerns for flash freezing of any remaining
moisture have decreased somewhat for Sunday as it appears that
strong winds and a rapidly drying airmass will lead to most of the
liquid evaporating before the bulk of the sub-freezing air
arrives. A wind advisory may be necessary for areas near the
water and especially the eastern shore on Sunday afternoon when
winds could gust 35-40mph. High temperatures for Sunday will
certainly occur early in the morning with most areas near or
below freezing by sunset.

Clearing skies and decreasing winds for should allow the brave
among you to see the total lunar eclipse Sunday evening. Temps
will continue to fall through the night with overnight lows in
the teens for all except the far southeast where low 20s are
possible. Highs on Monday will struggle to get out of the mid
20s in the north and low 30s across the south.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 400 pm est Friday...

leaning toward the 12z ECMWF for the extended period. Arctic
high pressure will build right over the area Mon night,
providing a clear or mostly clear sky and very cold temps. Lows
will range thru the teens into the lower 20s. High pressure
will provide a partly to mostly sunny sky and a slight
moderation in temps on tue. Highs will range fm the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

High pressure will slide off the coast Tue night into wed, as
another low pressure area and associated frontal boundary will
approach fm the wnw. There could be isolated rain or snow
showers by early Wed morning over the piedmont. Then, another
good chance for more rain Wed aftn into Thu evening, as low
pressure tracks fm the gulf coast states NE up acrs the mid atlc
region. There is a lingering chance for rain or snow showers
into Thu night, until the system moves off to the ene. Drier and
colder NW or N flow expected for fri.

Lows Tue night in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Wed will
range fm the lower 50s into the lower 60s. Lows Wed night will
range fm the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thu will range fm the
lower 40s extrm nw, to the lower 50s se. Lows Thu night will
range fm the mid 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Fri in the upper 30s
to mid 40s.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
As of 1240 pm est Friday...

vfr flying weather for most locations this afternoon with the
exception of some MVFR CIGS across the north as low stratus
continues to erode. Expect MVFR CIGS late tonight as low
pressure approaches from the west. Winds generally from the
northwest between 5-10 knots will decrease to light and
variable overnight.

A strong cold front crosses the region (late) Sat night-sun
(accompanied by widespread rain possibly ending as isold snsh,
and flight restrictions due to CIGS vsbys).

Marine
As of 330 pm est Friday...

high pressure passes N of the region tonight as strong low
pressure tracks through the mississippi valley. A light N wind of 5-
10kt will gradually turn ne, the E by Saturday morning. The wind
becomes SE Saturday and steadily increases to 10-15kt. Low pressure
tracks immediately N of the area Saturday night. Rapid pressure
falls combined with a strong pressure gradient and a LLJ will result
in a period of increased sse flow 20-30kt (especially n) for a 3-6hr
period Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Seas build to 5-
7ft N and 4-5ft S out near 20nm. Strong CAA and pressure rises then
follow a cold frontal passage Sunday into Monday, with the strongest
wind Sunday aftn into Sunday night. A NW will increase to 25-30kt
during this time period with gusts of 35-40kt. There is the
potential for 30-35kt with gusts of 40-45kt for the ocean and bay
late Sunday aftn into Sunday evening. Seas build to 5-9ft, with 3-
6ft waves in the bay.

Sca flags have been issued beginning Saturday evening through early
Sunday morning for the pre-frontal sse wind, and gale watches have
been issued beginning late Sunday morning for all zones, and then
gradually coming down late Sunday night into Monday morning.

An arctic blast of cold air will follow the strong cold front Sunday
night with low temps dropping into the low-mid 20s over water. This
coupled with gale force wind will most likely pose a threat of
freezing spray, especially after midnight Sunday night and into
Monday aftn. Conditions slowly improve Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the region. Another low pressure system
potentially impacts the region by Wednesday and Thursday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
anz635>637.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm Saturday to 10 am est Sunday
for anz633-635>638-650-652-654.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
anz630>634-638.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm Saturday to 10 am est Sunday
for anz630>632-634.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
anz650-652-654-656-658.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Sunday for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Rhr
near term... Rhr
short term... Rhr
long term... Tmg
aviation... Alb rhr
marine... Ajz jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi45 min 44°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi45 min NW 1 G 2.9 43°F 42°F1018.9 hPa (+1.5)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi45 min NNE 4.1 G 6 41°F 41°F1020 hPa (+1.7)
OCSM2 31 mi165 min 1 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi45 min N 5.1 G 7 39°F 42°F1019.9 hPa (+1.2)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi45 min NNE 5.1 G 6 1020.3 hPa (+1.2)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi55 min 45°F2 ft1019.1 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi51 minWNW 710.00 miFair46°F36°F68%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E3E6E5E6E4E5E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W5W7NW8W9NW7NW5W8W6W7
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmNE8NE6NE9--NE8NE8NE6E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW5SW6SW7SW9W7W11W10N10NW12NW8NW10N5

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:28 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 AM EST     3.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:57 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     3.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:55 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.212.13.13.73.93.73.12.21.30.6-0-0.20.111.92.73.23.32.82.11.20.4-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.