Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:22PM Friday July 21, 2017 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:02AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 421 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Through 7 pm..S winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 421 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains over the western atlantic as a persistent trough lingers over central virginia through the weekend. A weakening cold pushes across the region Monday night into Tuesday. Another weakening cold front approaches the region Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 212015
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
415 pm edt Fri jul 21 2017

Synopsis
Hot and humid conditions will continue over the region through
Sunday. A weakening cold front will gradually push across the
area late Sunday through Monday, with temperatures cooling down
to near normal levels Monday through Thursday.

Near term through Saturday
Weak sfc lee trough in place across the local area this aftn,
with wnw flow prevailing aloft around the base of an upper
level trough centered over eastern canada. Hot humid airmass in
place, particularly humid over the E and SE zones with dew pts
still ranging from 75 to 80 f, with somewhat lower (though still
elevated) dew pts over central and S central va (mainly from
the mid upper 60s to around 70 f). Heat advisory remains in
effect through 8 pm for most of the area (though areas that
receive rain will rapidly cool).

The wnw flow pattern appears to be allowing the ongoing
convection MCS along the mtns to hold together as it approaches
the NW flank of the cwa. Have ramped pops up to likely through
6pm for the nw, and high chance 30-50% for much of the northern
1 2 of the CWA through midnight, lingering into Sat morning for ne
zones.

Very warm humid tonight with lows mainly 75 to 80 f. Not as hot
most areas for sat, due to potential for more clouds and as
core of 850 mb heat shifts a bit s. However, with slightly
higher dew pts than Fri expect most of the area to reach heat
advisory criteria Sat aftn even with highs on avg only in the
mid 90s. As airmass destabilizes more by Sat aftn early
evening, and as heights aloft drop, convection developing from
the NW will be more likely to hold together for at least 30-50%
pops across most areas (20% NE nc) from late Sat aftn through
sat night. Deep layer shear will be higher as the upper trough
sharpens a bit and h5 to h7 flow increases. Most of the CWA is
in a marginal risk for severe wx, with a slight risk for the
far N ne. Wind will be the primary threat with large hail also
possible.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
Lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s Sat night, and continued
hot and humid with additional heat headlines likely needed for
some of the region on sun. Highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s
Sunday. Slight risk in place for most of the cwa, but more
uncertainty exists depending on how long convective debris from
sat night hangs around and potentially keeps more clouds around.

Cold front slated to pass through while weakening late Sun night
through mon. Will maintain chc pops all zones Sun night, and
favor highest pops Mon across thes with 20% pops for the n.

Slightly less humid Monday, especially n. Highs Mon 90 to 95 f.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Cold front progged to push offshore Tuesday morning as the upper
trough slides over the northeast into the canadian maritimes.

Deepest moisture pushes offshore late Monday night, but will keep
mention of slight chance to chance pops near the coast. Southern
portion of the cold front expected to stall over the carolinas
Tuesday as a baggy trough locates over the southeast. Combination of
weak energy in the upper flow and a moist air mass near the
boundary, will keep mention of slight chance to chance pops across
the far southeast local area Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, cooler
Tuesday with a light north to northeast wind. Highs generally in the
upper 80's to around 90 (near seasonable norms). High pressure at
the surface and aloft slides north of the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday as another trough tracks across ontario. Meanwhile, a
broad upper ridge over the southern plains expands eastward, but the
baggy trough remains over the southeast. Best chances for measurable
precip expected to be south of the region Wednesday, but will carry
slight chance to low end chance pops across the southern portions of
the forecast area. Highs Wednesday generally in the mid 80's.

Another trough tracks into the great lakes and northeast Wednesday
night and Thursday, pushing another weakening cold front into the
mid-atlantic region Thursday afternoon. Will need to watch for
upstream convection Wednesday night in northwest flow aloft, so have
added chance pops for the maryland eastern shore. With the boundary
and cyclonic flow over the region Thursday, have chance pops for
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs Thursday generally
in the upper 80's to low 90's. Medium range guidance depicts
additional energy digging down the backside of the upper trough
Friday, with a wave of low pressure progged to develop along the mid-
atlantic front. Timing and spatial differences at that timeframe of
the forecast cause a great deal of uncertainty, so have only
mentioned 20-40% pops at this time. Highs back around seasonal
norms, in the upper 80's to low 90's.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
MainlyVFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this
afternoon... Overnight and into Sat morning, as sfc high
pressure sits well off the SE coast with a trough to the lee of
the appalachians. Scattered CU around 5-6kft is developing
across the region in addition to a few isolated showers as of
18z. Convection moving into western va will likely weaken some
as it crosses the mountains... However... Some shower and storm
activity will make it into central va and across the eastern
shore late this evening. Have vcsh at ric from 21z-00z,
otherwise mainly dry most places this evening with a 20-30% of
showers tstms late this aftn. Expect a little better chance
of storms late Sat especially from ric north including the md
eastern shore as another wave move across in the NW flow aloft.

Marine
Latest surface analysis depicts high pressure over the
western atlantic with a trough of low pressure over central
virginia. Obs indicate a light south to southeast winds at or below
10 knots. Waves are generally 1 foot and seas 2 feet. Diurnal
increase in the low level winds expected again tonight over the low
bay and southern coastal waters. Hi-res guidance depicts winds
around 15 knots, with an occasional gust of 18 knots, mainly
centered a few hours either side of 11pm (03z). Conditions expected
to remain sub-sca. Wave kick up to 2 feet in the lower bay and seas
2-3 feet. Stagnant surface pattern persists through the weekend.

Winds generally southwest at or below 15 knots, but near sca
conditions possible late each day into the overnight period. Seas
generally 2-3 feet (upwards of 4 feet overnight) with waves of 1-2
feet.

A weakening cold front approaches the region late Monday, dropping
across the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Flow backs to
the northwest to north Tuesday at or below 10-15 knots. High
pressure builds across the northeast into Wednesday, resulting in
onshore flow Wednesday. Another weakening cold front approaches the
region Wednesday night and Thursday, stalling over the region into
next weekend.

Climate
Heat wave is expected to develop, mainly today through Sunday.

The 2nd half of july is climatologically the hottest few weeks
of the year, so we still may not set any daily records at our
main climate sites. For reference, record highs today through
Sunday are listed below:
* date: fri(7 21) sat(7 22) sun(7 23)
* ric: 104 1930 103 1952 103 1952
* orf: 101 1926 102 2011 103 2011
* sby: 106 1930 104 1930 103 2011
* ecg: 102 1987 104 1952 104 1952

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz021>024.

Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Saturday for mdz021>024.

Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz012>017-
030>032.

Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Saturday for ncz012>017-
030>032.

Va... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz048-061-062-
064-067>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Saturday for vaz060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb tmg
long term... Mas
aviation... Tmg jao
marine... Mam sam
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi39 min 76°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi51 min S 7 G 8.9 86°F 87°F1012.7 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 7 82°F 71°F1012.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi51 min E 2.9 G 6 89°F 1012.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi51 min S 4.1 G 5.1 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi45 minSSW 510.00 miFair91°F73°F57%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12SW8S7S11S8S6SW5SW6SW6SW7SW5W5W5W5W5NW5NW64W7S7W7W6SW8SW5
1 day agoS11S9S7SW8SW8SW5SW5SW4W4W5SW4SW4W3W44W5SW5SW5S9S11S11S13S16S11
2 days agoS7S8S6S6SW6S4SW4S4S4SW6SW4S5S5SW3SW44CalmSE7S10S10S12S12S11S10

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
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Chincoteague Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:42 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM EDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:40 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20-00.10.30.60.80.80.80.60.50.30.1-0.1-0.100.30.711.21.210.9

Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:00 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:40 AM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:01 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:02 PM EDT     4.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.20.21.12.23.13.73.83.42.51.60.70.1-0.20.11.12.43.64.44.84.53.72.71.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.