Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday May 23, 2019 11:43 AM EDT (15:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 8:47AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1008 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm edt this evening through Friday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds, building to 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1008 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure settles off the southeast coast today into tonight as low pressure passes north of the region. This area of low pressure drags a weak cold front through the area late tonight. High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday, and then passes over the region Saturday, and then shifts off the southeast coast Sunday and memorial day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 231111
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
711 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure settles off the southeast coast today into
tonight as low pressure passes north of the region. This area of
low pressure drags a weak cold front through the area late
tonight. High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday and
then passes over the region Saturday, and then shifts off the
southeast coast Sunday and memorial day.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

current GOES wv and IR imagery depict a shortwave trough with
intense convection pushing through the midwest, with a mid
upper level ridge centered over the southeast coast. At the
surface, high pressure is located off the coast, with low
pressure over the great lakes, and a cold front trailing into
the mississippi valley. The mid upper level ridge axis will push
offshore later this morning as the shortwave trough tracks
through ERN great lakes. Meanwhile, the low-level flow will
become sw, which will allow for slow moistening of the low-level
airmass. Much warmer high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s
to around 90f, with low 80s for much of the ERN shore and
coastal SE va NE nc, and upper 70s at the immediate atlantic
coast of the ERN shore.

The shortwave trough is expected to trigger additional strong
to severe tstms N of the region from pa to nj later this aftn in
a zone of 40-50kt 500mb flow and 35-45kt 700mb flow. It should
be noted that this shortwave will dampen upper ridging to a
degree,with resultant quasi-downslope flow serving to lower
areal coverage of tstms over the local area. Hence, there are
mixed solutions amongst the cams with respect to the SRN extent
of the convection later this aftn and evening. Another factor to
consider for areal extent of convection is a rather prominent
cap ~900-850mb. SPC has maintained a marginal risk across the
nrn third of the area, with the slight risk line clipping the
nrn neck and md ERN shore. This is definitely conditional on
tstms actually reaching the area, but any tstms that do reach
the area could produce locally damaging wind gusts and large
hail. Pops are mainly 20-30% from about 20z-04z. Drier air
arrives late as a weak cold front moves through the area. Low
temperatures late tonight range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Short term Friday through Sunday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

the airmass behind the front Friday will still be rather warm
as high temperatures range from the low 80s over the ERN shore
(upper 70s immediate atlantic coast), to the upper 80s low 90s
for much of the area with downsloping deep layer NW flow. Drier
behind the front Friday, especially N where aftn dewpoints drop
into the low mid 50s. The 23 00z NAM brings some upper energy
through the area within the NW flow. However, a dry forecast has
been maintained given limited moisture.

23 00z numerical guidance depicts somewhat of a reprieve from
the anomalous heat Saturday as high pressure passes across the
region resulting in e-se low-level flow along the coast, and
se-s flow farther inland. Forecast highs Saturday range from the
low mid 70s E (cooler along the immediate atlantic coast of the
ern shore) to the low mid 80s farther inland, after morning
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Saturday evening, there is
a slight chc of showers tstms drifting off the higher terrain
into the piedmont.

Sunday has the potential to be the hottest day of the spring
thus far. Surface high pressure slides well off the southeast
coast as low pressure moves into the ERN great lakes. This will
result in wsw low-level flow, which will help boost high
temperatures into the low mid 90s inland, with upper 80s over
the ERN shore, and even mid 80s at the immediate atlantic coast.

Lows Sunday morning range from the mid 60s to around 70f.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
As of 250 pm edt Wednesday...

summerlike temperatures remaining above normal through the extended
forecast period. An upper level anticyclone remains centered along
the gulf coast early next week, putting our region in w-nw flow
aloft. Meanwhile, an anomalous deep trough aloft will continue
to largely remain out over the WRN conus. A weak frontal
boundary crosses the area Sun evening-sun night, but only
isolated tstms are expected (mainly N ne). Isolated-scattered
aftn evening tstms are possible on mon, but the chance of this
is only ~20%. Drying out from tue-wed as upper ridging amplifies
over the us east coast as the aforementioned deep trough aloft
ejects out into the NRN plains.

Lows Sun night in the u60s-around 70f. Highs Mon in the 80s over the
lower ERN shore to the low 90s inland. Highs Tue from the low 80s
over the ERN shore to near 90f inland. Forecast highs on Wed are in
the low 90s in most areas, but there is the potential for it to be
even warmer.

Aviation 11z Thursday through Monday
As of 710 am edt Thursday...

high pressure is centered off the mid-atlantic coast as of 11z.

The wind is 5-8kt out of the S under with bkn CIGS ~5kft over se
va NE nc. These clouds should dissipate and move offshore later
this morning. Surface high pressure will push farther offshore
today with the wind becoming sw, and increasing to 10-12kt with
gusts up to 20kt by this aftn. Sct CU are expected to develop
by this aftn, with a 20-30% chc of showers tstms (primarily from
ric- sby and n) after 20z and continuing through 04z Friday as
a trough pushes across the region in NW flow aloft. Tstms could
produce locally stronger wind gusts along with reduced vsby in
brief heavy rain.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday through the weekend
and into memorial day as weak high pressure prevails over the
region. There is a low probability of showers tstms Sunday
night along and N of a line from ric-sby.

Marine
As of 420 am edt Thursday...

high pressure will slide farther into the atlc during today.

A weak cold front approaches from the northwest late today, then
drops acrs the area tonight into Fri morning. Early this
morning, winds were sse 5-15 kt over the waters, with waves 1-2
ft and seas 2-3 ft. As the cold front approaches from the
northwest, ssw winds will increase to 10-20 kt, with a few gusts
up to 25 kt over the NRN coastal zns, this aftn into tonight.

These winds will also build seas to 4-5 ft over the two nrn
coastal zns, so have hoisted a SCA for 650-652 fm 7 pm this
evening to 7 am Fri morning. Farther south, winds will be
between 15-20 kt with seas 3-4 ft. In the ches bay and rivers,
ssw winds this aftn into tonight will be 10-15 kt and waves
will be around 1-2 ft.

Behind the cold front on fri, high pressure will build back
into the area for the holiday weekend. Looks like winds and seas
will stay below SCA criteria through mon.

Climate
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
As of 420 am edt Thursday...

kakq 88d radar out of service until further notice. Techs are awaiting
parts to make needed repair. Return to service possible later today
or fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am edt Friday
for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Ajz mam
near term... Ajz mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Tmg
climate... Akq
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi43 min 63°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi43 min SSW 14 G 18 70°F 69°F1022.5 hPa (-1.2)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi43 min SSW 16 G 19 1023.3 hPa (-1.2)
OCSM2 31 mi163 min 1 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi49 min S 18 G 21 70°F 69°F1021.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi43 min S 17 G 19 1023.4 hPa (-1.2)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi53 min S 14 G 16 63°F 61°F2 ft1022.9 hPa (-0.8)59°F

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
E5
G8
E4
SE3
S5
G8
S5
SW5
SW7
SW8
SW8
SW8
SW7
SW3
SW6
S6
S7
S9
S9
G13
S9
G12
S10
SW11
G14
S9
G12
SW9
S11
G14
SW16
1 day
ago
N11
G14
N9
G12
N8
G11
N12
N10
N13
N12
G15
N10
NW9
NW6
N6
NW7
NW5
N7
G10
NE7
G12
NE8
G14
NE8
G11
NE8
G11
NE8
G11
NE4
G9
NE5
G11
NE5
G9
NE6
G9
E5
G8
2 days
ago
SW11
SW13
G16
SW14
G17
SW14
G17
SW14
SW14
G17
SW14
SW14
SE3
SW11
SW4
W2
W6
W4
NW6
NW5
N9
G12
N9
N11
N12
N12
G16
N14
G17
NW14
G17
N13
G16

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi49 minS 15 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F62°F69%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrNE10E5E8SE7SE7SE6S5S5S5S3SW3CalmS5S6S8S7S7S6S6S7S10S13S16
G21
S15
G23
1 day agoNW9
G19
N11
G15
CalmNW7
G18
NW6NW64S3NW5NW6CalmNW4NW6NW5NW6N7N7N6N6N6N7NE11NE12NE10
2 days agoW10S13
G16
S15
G21
S15
G20
S18
G24
S14S17S18
G23
SW10W10
G20
SW9SW6SW5W7W6W6NW6NW5NW6NW7N10N9
G18
NW12
G19
NW12

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:19 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
43.72.921.20.60.20.30.91.72.433.33.22.82.11.510.70.81.42.22.93.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.