Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:19 PM EST (21:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:20AMMoonset 7:26PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 345 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning...
Through 7 pm..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds. A chance of showers late in the evening. Showers after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds...building to 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely early in the morning, then a chance of showers late in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
ANZ600 345 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves father out to sea tonight. Meanwhile, weak low pressure will track northeast just off the coast tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. These systems push out to sea Wednesday afternoon. High pressure builds back into the area for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 212104
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
404 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure tracks northeast off the mid atlantic coast
late tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a cold front crosses the
area late tonight then moves off the coast Wednesday morning.

High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday afternoon
through Friday as low pressure lingers off the southeast coast.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Latest msas has a trof along the carolina coast with low pressure
developing east of jacksonville, fla. Meanwhile, a cold front was
moving east across the upr mid west. 12z models continue to struggle
with the moisture fields tonight as the low moves NE along the mid
atlantic coast and cold front approaching from the west. Went with a
model blend where the best lift progged along and east of the i95
corridor between 06z-12z.

Given the trends of the latest high res models, kept it dry through
00z, with isltd pops across nc zones through 03z. A ribbon of
moisture lift progged to quickly ride NE after 03z resulting in
pcpn breaking out developing by late evening then pushing east
through the overnight hours. Still only expecting QPF amounts
less than one quarter inch. However, confidence high enough that
at least some measurable pcpn falls across the east. Thus,
increased pops to likely categorical from the i95 corridor on
east, chc pops across the west. Lows mid 40s NW to mid 50s ssern
coast areas.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
Low pres tracks across the vacapes early Wed with the cold front
moving offshore around 12z. Any lingering shwrs progged to move
offshore around 15z. Column begins to dry out west to east wed
as high pres builds in from the west. Mstly sunny west, becoming
mstly sunny east. Lagging CAA and sunshine allows temps to rise
into the mid 50s north to lwr 60s south.

High pressure approaches from the west Wed night, then becomes
centered across the region thurs through fri. This high keeps the
moisture coming off of fla mainly south of hat thurs before moving
farther offshore thurs night and fri. Mostly clr to pt cldy wed
nite. Lows upr 20s-upr 30s. Pt to mstly sunny thurs. Highs mid 40s
north-lwr 50s south. Mstly clr Thu night. Lows upr 20s-upr 30s.

Mstly sunny and a little milder fri. Highs lwr-mid 50s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
The next cold front crosses the area late sat. Not much in the way
of moisture to work with but will carry slght chc pops with it sat
night per a GFS soln. ECMWF suggests a dry fropa. Highs in the upr
50s-lwr 60s. Lows in the mid 30s-lwr 40s.

Dry and colder early next week as a 1025mb canadian high slowly
moves SE across the region. Highs Sun mid 40s-lwr 50s. Lows sun
night mid 20s-lwr 30s. Coldest day Mon with highs low to mid 40s.

Lows Mon night mid 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Tue in the upr 40s-lwr 50s.

Aviation 21z Tuesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions to start the forecast period as high mid level
clouds increase through 00z. Latest guidance suggests cigs
continue to lower (but still remain avove 3k ft) across the
region this evening with pcpn holding off until 03z. Moisture
ahead of a cold front will combine with low pressure moving
ne along the coast to produce MVFR CIGS vsbys in shwrs between
06z-14z, pushing offshore around 15z. Some of the guidance is
showing LCL ifr CIGS around 12z but confidence not high enough
that will occur. Drying of the column will result in decreasing
clouds through the day with all TAF sites becomingVFR by 18z.

The ssw winds today at 10-15kts shift to the nnw behind the cold
frontal passage Wed morning.

Outlook...

vfr conditions return for the rest of the week as high pressure
builds into the region from the west.

Marine
High pressure will move farther out to sea tonight. Meanwhile,
weak low pressure will track northeast just off the coast
tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. These
systems push out to sea Wednesday afternoon. High pressure
builds back into the area for the end of the week.

Have hoisted sca's for all the waters except the rappahannock
river, york river, and the upper james river. Southerly winds
mainly 5-15 kt (except 15-20 kt over NRN two coastal waters)
this evening into late tonight, will become wnw 5-15 kt early
wed morning, then become NW or N and increase to 15-25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt for Wed aftn into Wed night. Waves will build
to 3-4 ft in the ches bay, and seas will build to 4-6 ft.

N winds will diminish Wed night into Thu morning, as cool high
pressure builds into the region. Sub-sca conditions then
expected thanksgiving day and Fri with high pressure nearby.

Equipment
Kdox remains down. Parts are on order and are expected to arrive wed.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 7 am est Thursday
for anz633-634.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 4 am est Thursday
for anz630>632-638.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 10 am est Thursday
for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Tmg
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi49 min 58°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi49 min SSW 8 G 11 57°F 51°F1020.3 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi49 min SW 16 G 20 55°F 54°F1019.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi49 min S 17 G 19 54°F 49°F1019 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi49 min SSE 15 G 17 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi25 minS 1310.00 miOvercast56°F48°F75%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3SW7SW7SW6SW6SW8SW8SW8SW9SW8SW7S6SW7SW7SW10SW11
G19
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1 day agoNW13
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NW10NW3NW4W3NW6NW8NW8NW7NW6NW5NW8W6NW9NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
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Chincoteague Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:05 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:47 AM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:53 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:05 PM EST     0.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.50.40.20.100.10.30.50.80.910.90.80.60.40.30.10.10.20.30.50.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:27 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:05 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:50 PM EST     3.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.20.60.30.30.91.92.93.63.93.93.42.61.70.90.30.10.31.122.73.13.23

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.