Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:29PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 12:52 PM EDT (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:01AMMoonset 5:15PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1031 Am Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Rest of today..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1031 Am Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain near the region for the rest of the week and into the weekend. A weak front will pass by to the north Thursday night. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday night into Friday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181257
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
857 am edt Wed oct 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains over the mid atlantic region through
Friday and gradually slides offshore next weekend with
temperatures gradually moderating.

Near term through tonight
Update... Frost advisory allowed to expire at 900 am. Dewpoints
have warmed at to above 35 degrees.

Previous discussion...

the current surface analysis depicts 1028mb high pressure
centered over the mid-atlantic. A clear sky, calm conditions,
and a dry airmass have combined to produce ideal radiational
cooling conditions across most of the local area with
temperatures generally 35-40f from the piedmont to e-central va
and interior NE nc across to the lower md ERN shore. Farther se,
temperatures are in the upper 40s to low 50s for coastal se
va NE nc where a light N wind persists. The frost advisory for
the piedmont remains on track, with some patchy possible to the
e of the advisory over rural portions of the interior coastal
plain. High pressure, surface and aloft will remain over the
region today producing very pleasant conditions with a sunny sky
and light wind. The airmass modifies and high temperatures
range form 65-70f.

Short term Thursday through Friday
Surface high pressure remains over the area tonight as a trough
swings across the great lakes temporarily suppressing the
mid upper high farther south across the gulf coast states.

Radiational cooling should again be rather ideal tonight with a
clear sky and calm conditions. Lows will be a few degrees higher
tonight ranging from the upper 30s low 40s inland to the upper
40s low 50s for coastal SE va.

The mid upper high rebuilds across the region Thursday and
Friday and surface high pressure continues to prevail. Expect
sunny clear and dry conditions to continue with a light wind.

Highs Thursday reach 70-75f as the airmass continues to modify.

By Friday, highs reach the mid 70s after morning lows in the
mid upper 40 inland, to the low mid 50s for coastal SE va NE nc.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
High pressure gradually pushes off the coast over the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to moderate with sky conditions no
worse than partly sunny. Much disagreement in the models by the
first of next week with respect to the arrival of the next cold
front. ECMWF is much wetter than the GFS with its deeper trough
aloft and a potential sfc low developing along the coast. Will
show chance pops Monday Tuesday, then another potential cool
down by the middle of next week. Highs sat-mon in the mid-upr
70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows Sat nite 50-60. Lows sun
nite in the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows Mon night in the upr 50s to
mid 60s.

Aviation 13z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure is situated over the region early this morning.

The sky is clear and the wind is calm at most locations, with a
localized northerly wind of 5-10kt at ecg. Expect clear
conditions to continue today into tonight, with a light wind
today becoming calm tonight. High pressure will remain over the
region Thursday and Friday, and then gradually slide offshore
Saturday and Sunday. Mainly clear sunny and dry conditions will
prevail with a light wind.

Marine
The latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered over
the region. Winds are primarily out of the northeast and range
from 5 to 10 knots over the waters. Seas are generally 2 to 4
feet and continue to decrease, waves over the bay are 1 to 2
feet. The high pressure remains centered over the region through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend allowing light
winds seas and an extended period of sub-sca conditions. A weak
front may try to move through the northern waters Friday
afternoon, briefly turning the winds to the northwest and
increasing to 10 to 15 knots.

Equipment
The kakq radar will be down through Wednesday, october 18th for
radome repairs.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz jdm
near term... Ajz bmd
short term... Jdm
long term... Ajz
aviation... Ajz
marine... Alb
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi52 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 61°F 65°F1028.7 hPa (+0.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi52 min WNW 1 G 1.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi52 min Calm G 1 62°F 64°F1029.6 hPa (+0.0)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi82 min N 1 60°F 1031 hPa49°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi58 minVar 310.00 miFair62°F37°F40%1030.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi77 minN 010.00 miFair63°F41°F46%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW753Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalm3
1 day agoN5NW7
G17
NW5NW11
G20
N6NW6N3N3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3Calm433CalmCalmN4N7NE5NW8
2 days agoSW11
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SW10SW9S9S7S6S6S8S7S10SW7SW9SW6Calm56
G17
53Calm3NW54

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:42 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 02:02 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:04 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.100.61.42.22.82.92.62.11.61.10.60.2-00.31.122.732.82.41.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:17 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:43 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.200.31.122.7332.521.40.80.400.20.81.82.53.13.22.82.31.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.