Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:29PM Sunday March 26, 2017 7:04 AM EDT (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 5:19AMMoonset 5:02PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 642 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..E winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of rain with patchy drizzle this morning...then patchy drizzle with a chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy drizzle with a chance of rain.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 642 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will drop south into the mid-atlantic tonight before returning north as a warm front Monday. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260655
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
255 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains offshore the southeast coast through
Monday. A weak frontal boundary over the DELMARVA this morning
lifts back to the north late today into Monday. A cold front
crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Weak sfc boundary has dropped S to between wal and mfv on the
ern shore and extends W just S of the potomac river. That
boundary likely to settle a bit farther S the next few hours.

Onshore winds... Bkn-ovc st temperatures in the m-u40s are found
n of the boundary... While mild/mainly partly cloudy conditions
prevail elsewhere.

Weakening low pres (sfc-aloft) will continue to track NE toward
the great lakes today... Pushing a weak low level boundary from
the W closer to the fa. Only slgt forcing aloft w/ this
system... Which will likely limit pcpn coverage as it draws
closer. The maritime low level air will be difficult/slow to
dislodge INVOF NE portions of the fa into this afternoon/evening.

Elsewhere... Mild w/ vrb clouds. Upper level s/w brushes nw
zones late and will have a 15-25% pops confined to the NW after
21z. Highs likely stuck to the 50s in low clouds over the md
eastern shore... W/ l-m70s in central/srn va-ne nc.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Tuesday/
Lows Sun night in the u40s-around 50f on the ERN shore to the
l-m50s elsewhere... W/ mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy se
to mostly cloudy on the lower md ERN shore and along-w of I 95.

Initial system lifts into/through new england mon... Leaving fa
w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains
invof SE CONUS coast. Vrb clouds Mon w/ pops mainly AOB 20%,
though will have a small area of 30% pops across the far n
through midday. Highs should warm a few degrees compared to
Sunday... Into the m-u70s over much of va and interior NE nc to
the u60s-l70s near the coast and over the eastern shore. Upper
level ridging to keep it mainly dry and continued warm Mon night
with lows in the 50s. Upper level trough pushes into the area
tue as a sfc cold front passes by late. Continued warm w/ highs
well into the 70s to near 80f if rain holds off. There will be
a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with
40-50% pops.

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/
Low pressure and assoc cold front will be pushing acrs the
region and off the coast Tue night... Maintaining slgt chc or
chc of showers. Dry wx expected for Wed thru most of thu, as
high pressure builds in fm the n. Chance for more showers and
possible tstms then Thu night into at least the first part of
sat, as low pressure and another assoc cold front approaches and
moves acrs the region.

Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s wed, in the mid 50s to mid 60s
thu and fri, and in the 60s to lower 70s sat. Lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s Tue night, in the lower to mid 40s Wed night
and Thu night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night.

Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/
Sfc boundary has slid S through portions of the ERN shore the
past several hours... W/ onshore winds and development of st
invof sby. The boundary will likely make an attempt to make it
ssw to ric/phf/orf before daybreak. Continued ifr conditions
expected INVOF sby into this afternoon before potentially lifting
(slowly). Low prob for conditions approaching ifr cigs... Mainly
at ric before 12z/26.

MainlyVFR conditions expected otherwise through the 06z taf
period. Front approaches slowly from the W late today/tonight
and may result in isold shras at ric/sby. Unsettled wx conditions
will persist across the region through mid-week. Sub-vfr
conditions will be possible late overnight and into the early
morning hours primarily due to low ceilings. Scattered showers
becoming increasingly likely by tue/tue night. Periods of
reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of
precipitation.

Marine
Relatively benign marine conditions expected the next several days
with no headlines anticipated.

A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across the lower md
ern shore today, before lifting back north of that area tonight. Low
pressure and its associated cold front will track from the srn
plains ene and across the local area Tue into early Wed morning.

Other than winds turning to the E or SE for today into this evening,
expect SW or S winds 15 kt or less tonight thru Tuesday.

As low pressure moves out to sea late Tue night thru wed
morning, winds will turn to the NW then N arnd 10 kt or less.

High pressure will build in from the N for Wed night and thu, with
ne winds 15 kt or less. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft thru midweek.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Alb/lkb
near term... Alb
short term... Alb/lkb
long term... Tmg
aviation... Alb
marine... Jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi46 min ENE 4.1 G 6 48°F 51°F1024.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi46 min E 9.9 G 12
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi46 min E 8.9 G 11 48°F 51°F1024.7 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi94 min Calm 56°F 1024 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair50°F46°F86%1023.3 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi69 minNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F45°F85%1024 hPa

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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SW10SW11S6S8S5S6S5S4S5S5S5S6S53Calm4
1 day agoS5S86S6S9S11S17
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2 days agoCalmE764--W7SE5SW44CalmS6S3CalmCalmSE435SE7S6S7S5S8S8S6

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:55 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:51 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.20.71.62.32.72.72.41.91.40.90.50.20.10.41.22.12.62.82.62.11.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:10 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:30 PM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.51.32.12.72.92.82.41.81.20.70.30.10.30.91.82.62.92.92.621.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.