Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:57 AM   Moonset 10:20 AM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1048 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight - .
Rest of tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms late this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms with vsby 1 nm or less. Wed - NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Wed night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day. Showers likely through the night. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1048 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front crosses the waters tonight into Wednesday morning bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns Thursday before another slow moving front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed on Friday and Saturday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 302358 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 758 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will shift farther off the southeast coast and out to sea this evening, as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will cross the area late tonight through Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday, with rain chances returning this weekend, as another cold front approaches from the northwest.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 755 PM EDT Tuesday...

Early evening analysis shows weak low pressure over SE PA with a surface trough extending the SW along and east of the Blue Ridge. Radar shows some returns ahead of the trough but recent CAMs tend to decrease the coverage of showers as they enter the local area this evening. Will maintain some slight chance PoPs with a brief mention of thunder across the far western counties early this evening. The surface cold front is still well to the NNW of the region. Broken to overcast skies will continue tonight with temps in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

The cold front will be fairly weak/decaying by the time it moves through the local area Wed into Wed evening. Latest CAMs focus the majority of the shower/tstm chances across SE portions of the forecast area Wed aftn into early Wed evening, with the forecast trending drier for locations farther NNW. Total QPF will generally be ~0.10-0.25" across SE portions of the area (locally higher in tstms). Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Any shower/storm activity comes to an end shortly after sunset Wed evening, with dry conditions returning for Wed night. Lows will range through the 50s, under a clear to partly cloudy sky.
Will have to watch for the potential for areas of fog late Wed night into Thu morning.

Dry wx expected for Thu and Fri, as upper ridge builds back over the Eastern US then just offshore. Mostly sunny and very warm on Thu with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland/Piedmont, and in the mid 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast (due to a SE or S wind). Partly to mostly sunny on Fri with highs mainly in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and ranging through the 70s to around 80 near the Bay/coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Unsettled conditions are expected for late Fri night into Tue.
A frontal boundary, along with areas of low pressure along it will affect the region Sat into Sun night, bringing a good chance of showers/tstms across the entire area. Clouds, rain, and an onshore wind will keep temps cooler on Sat and Sun.
Highs on Sat will range from the mid to upper 60s NE, to the mid to upper 70s SSW. Highs on Sun will mainly range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Increasingly warmer Mon and Tue, but there will be slight to small chances for mainly aftn/early evening showers or tstms, due to the proximity of a trough. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Mon, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 755 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF period. BKN/OVC high/mid level clouds will persist tonight. A surface trough moves through the area tonight with a low chance for showers.
Not confident in coverage or timing so will leave out of the forecast for now. Showers and a few storms are possible Wednesday afternoon at ECG so have include VCSH and VCTS late in the period. Winds are generally SW 5-10 kt, becoming W and NW as a weak front drops southward. ENE winds are likely toward the end of the period.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected Thu and Fri. There is chance for showers/thunderstorms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from late Fri night through Sun with the next front.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week and into the weekend.

A cold front continues to approach from the NW this afternoon with sfc high pressure anchored off the SE CONUS coast. It is a bit breezy with SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt (a few higher gusts have been observed right at the land/water interface with peak daytime mixing over land). Seas are generally 3-4.5 ft. The front is expected to cross the local waters tonight-Wed. Breezy conditions continue through the evening with S-SW winds of 10-15 kt. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt and turn to the W then NE through the day Wed as the front crosses the waters. Winds turn back to the south on Thu (and remain 5-10 kt) before becoming E-NE at 10-15 kt Fri-Sat AM as another weak front crosses the waters.

Seas remain 3-4 ft through tonight, with a few 5 ft seas possible out near 20nm off the eastern shore, but will not issue SCAs. Seas drop back to 2-3ft by Wed evening and may build back to 3-4 ft by Fri night. Waves stay at 1-2 ft through most of the week.

CLIMATE
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

No record highs were set yesterday, 4/29. SBY has a chance today, while records at the other sites are very unlikely.

Record highs for Tuesday April 30th:

* RIC: 93/1974 * ORF: 93/1988 * SBY: 86/2017 * ECG: 90/1974

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Massaponax
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:18 PM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:57 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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