Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:27PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:52 AM EDT (10:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:12AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 432 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Today..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Light winds are expected with high pressure to the south through the weekend. Scattered Thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220815
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
415 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
Hot and humid conditions will continue over the region over the
weekend. A weakening cold front will gradually push across the
area late Sunday through Monday, with temperatures cooling down
to near normal levels Monday through Thursday.

Near term through tonight
Early morning analysis reveals a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary draped from eastern new england back into the mid-
missouri valley. A weak sfc lee trough is still lingering over
the mid-atlantic region this morning from S nj down into the
piedmont of central va nc. And of course, bermuda high pressure
remains in control over the western atlantic. Aloft, a quick-
moving shortwave continues to dive across the ohio valley
toward the central appalachians this morning. Associated late
night MCS mcv activity continues to roll across the ohio river
valley early this morning. W-nw flow prevails aloft around the
base of an upper level trough centered over eastern canada.

Headline today will again be the heat. We're off to a very warm
start once again, with early morning lows mainly 75 to 80 f.

Temperatures will be similar to slightly cooler to those of
Friday, due to potential for more aftn clouds and as core of
850mb heat shifts a bit s. Having said that, however... We will
see slightly higher dewpoint values today compared to Friday.

Therefore expect most of the area to reach heat advisory
criteria by late morning (coast) into the aftn inland, even as
highs avg only in the mid 90s. Only far NW counties should mix
out enough to keep heat index values in the low 100s this aftn.

Other story today will be the convective potential for the mid
to late aftn and evening. Expect convection to remain well to
our NW through midday. However, majority of cams (including time
lagged hrrr and NAM conest... Which have handled convection to
the N NW well over the past few days) showing convective
outflows triggering some more iso-sct showers and t-storms
today than we've seen locally over the past few days. This is a
result of 1) a more unstable airmass by this aftn early
evening, courtesy of increasing pw values and lowering heights
aloft, and 2) a bit more in the way of deep layer shear, especially
over the northern 1 3 of the area, as upper trough to the nw
deepens amplifies. Convection developing over the foothills into
n va will therefore be more likely to hold together into our
local area for at least a few hours from the mid to late
afternoon. For that reason, have bumped pops into high end chc
to likely (50-60%) across the northern neck counties over to
the lower eastern shore. Pops taper down to slight chance
(20%-30% south central va into NE nc). Most of the CWA is in a
marginal risk for severe wx, with a slight risk for the northern
half of the area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat, though steepening mid-level lapse rates could portend
to some strong updrafts and the potential for some large hail
(best chance over the northern neck eastern shore).

Lows again in the 70s to near 80 across the south. Slightly
"cooler" across the north, especially in areas the do receive
those showers.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Continued hot and humid with additional heat headlines likely
needed for some of the region on sun. Slight risk remains in
place for most of the cwa, as the upper trough digs SE across
the ohio valley. Sunday remains a bit of a conditional
convective threat. Numerous convective boundaries are likely to
be in place, which would serve as a focusing mechanism for
afternoon and evening convection. However, uncertainty exists
regarding the extent and degree of cloudiness from convective
debris which hangs around into Sunday, thereby serving to
dampen destabilization. Models are still split on extent of
cloudiness through the early afternoon and have therefore
elected to keep pop in chance range (40-50%) for now, highest
over the NE cwa. Should convective debris clear out in a timely
way on Sunday, it's easy to visualize a scenario in which more
widespread convection occurs, given better lift lapse rates
courtesy of the approaching upper trough and the strong
heating destabilization that would result from quicker clearing.

Once again, damaging winds again the primary threat with storms
on Sunday. Highs drop off slightly given increase in dewpoints
and clouds. Highs in the low 90s along the coast to mid 90s just
inland, with heat indices again right around heat advy
criteria.

Cold front slated to pass through while weakening late sun
night through mon. Will maintain chc pops all zones Sun night,
and favor highest pops Mon shifting south across SE va & NE nc
with 20% pops for the n. Slightly less humid Monday over the nw
cwa. Not quite as hot, with highs Mon 90 to 95 f.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Cold front progged to push offshore Tuesday morning as the
upper trough slides over the northeast into the canadian
maritimes. Deepest moisture pushes offshore late Monday night,
but will keep mention of slight chance to chance pops near the
coast. Southern portion of the cold front expected to stall over
the carolinas Tuesday as a baggy trough locates over the
southeast. Combination of weak energy in the upper flow and a
moist air mass near the boundary, will keep mention of slight
chance to chance pops across the far southeast local area
Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, cooler Tuesday with a light north
to northeast wind. Highs generally in the upper 80's to around
90 (near seasonable norms). High pressure at the surface and
aloft slides north of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as
another trough tracks across ontario. Meanwhile, a broad upper
ridge over the southern plains expands eastward, but the baggy
trough remains over the southeast. Best chances for measurable
precip expected to be south of the region Wednesday, but will
carry slight chance to low end chance pops across the southern
portions of the forecast area. Highs Wednesday generally in the
mid 80's. Another trough tracks into the great lakes and
northeast Wednesday night and Thursday, pushing another
weakening cold front into the mid- atlantic region Thursday
afternoon. Will need to watch for upstream convection Wednesday
night in northwest flow aloft, so have added chance pops for the
maryland eastern shore. With the boundary and cyclonic flow
over the region Thursday, have chance pops for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. Highs Thursday generally in the upper
80's to low 90's. Medium range guidance depicts additional
energy digging down the backside of the upper trough Friday,
with a wave of low pressure progged to develop along the mid-
atlantic front. Timing and spatial differences at that timeframe
of the forecast cause a great deal of uncertainty, so have only
mentioned 20-40% pops at this time. Highs back around seasonal
norms.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions at area terminals this morning, withVFR
conditions to prevail through the 06z TAF period. High pressure
will continue to prevail off the southeast coast tonight into
Saturday, with a lingering trough to the lee of the central
appalachians. This will result in primarily light SW flow at
~5-10kt. Sct to occasionally bkn mid and high clouds overnight.

Mainly dry conditions are expected tonight with a minimal chc
of showers tstms at sby through 10z (sct showers now crossing
from north of an esn to ged line at issuance time).

Sct CU with bases ~5-6kft develop by late morning ahead of a
weak upper level system. This feature should trigger isolated to
scattered showers tstms late this afternoon and evening. The
best chc (30-50%) is from ric-sby and north, with a 20-30% chc
for phf orf ecg. Have included vicinity thunder wording at sby
and ric, but have held out elsewhere for now.

Outlook: another period of late aftn evening showers tstms
expected Sunday, shifting south into south central va and nc
for Monday.VFR should dominate through this period, with
periods of periods of sub-vfr possible in heavier showers tsra.

A weak cold front pushes through the area Tuesday with high
pressure building N of the region Wednesday.

Marine
High pressure is well-rooted over bermuda with a sfc thermal
trough in the lee of the mountains and flat zonal flow aloft
across the region. This pattern will persist through the weekend
with a cold front approaching the waters on Monday... Crossing the
waters Monday night. Expect increasing potential for aftn evening
thunderstorms with each passing day. Main impacts will be locally
strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Winds
will generally be SW AOB 15kt with seas averaging 2-4ft and
waves 1-3ft during this timeframe. Models are hinting at a brief
uptick in wind speeds Sunday night, which is likely associated
with thunderstorms than more synoptically-driven conditions.

Sca flags are not anticipated at this time.

The cold front stalls out just south of the area with weak
troughing along the mid atlantic carolina coasts, which is
expected to persist in this area from Tuesday through the rest of
the week. Best chance for aftn evening thunderstorms should
remain confined to SRN waters INVOF the weak trough as well as
seabreeze boundaries. Wind speeds AOB 15kt the rest of the week.

Wind direction veers to the north behind the cold front late
Monday night Tuesday... Becoming onshore e-se Tuesday night
through Wednesday night... Then becoming s-sw Thursday Friday.

Seas average 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft.

Climate
Heat wave is expected to continue through Sunday. The 2nd half
of july is climatologically the hottest few weeks of the year,
so we still may not set any daily records at our main climate
sites. For reference, record highs for today and Sunday are
listed below:
* date: sat(7 22) sun(7 23)
* ric: 103 1952 103 1952
* orf: 102 2011 103 2011
* sby: 104 1930 103 2011
* ecg: 104 1952 104 1952

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for mdz021>024.

Nc... Heat advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for ncz012>017-030>032.

Va... Heat advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for vaz060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Lkb mam
long term... Mas
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Bmd
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi52 min W 1 G 4.1 78°F 88°F1010.8 hPa (-0.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi52 min W 8.9 G 9.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi52 min WNW 6 G 7 78°F 86°F1011.4 hPa (-0.0)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi82 min SSW 1 77°F 1013 hPa72°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi58 minSSW 38.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1012.5 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi57 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F72°F92%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3CalmCalmNE43--Calm6SW6SW9SW5SW6W6W7W4SW4W4SW4SW4CalmSW5CalmSW3
1 day agoSW3SW4Calm433--W5W65W9SW7SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW43CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalm3E4NE4CalmCalmE3CalmCalm5S5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Sat -- 01:28 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.10.20.81.82.73.23.22.92.31.81.20.80.3-00.10.81.82.52.82.72.21.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:44 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:40 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:48 PM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.51.52.53.23.53.32.82.21.610.50.1-00.51.42.32.932.72.11.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.