Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:58PM Saturday November 17, 2018 3:03 PM EST (20:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 12:53AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1237 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
This afternoon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 1237 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain overhead through tonight before shifting offshore on Sunday. SEveral waves of low pressure and their associated fronts will move near the waters through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 171753
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1253 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds across the region bringing dry weather into
through early next week. A weak disturbance approaches the
region late Monday into Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1045 am est Saturday...

minor update to account for some bay effect cloudiness over
eastern tidewater area late this morning. Otherwise, forecast
remains largely on track. Mostly sunny, breezy and cool with
highs in the upper 40s to low 50s md va eastern shore sections,
and through the 50s elsewhere.

Previous discussion
as of 315 am est Saturday...

latest surface analysis shows high pressure building southwest of
the region and in control of our weather pattern. Early this
morning, skies are clear with temperatures generally in the low to
mid 30s (warmer at the immediate coast). Winds are generally light
and variable minus the immediate coast where winds are out of the
north around 5 to 10 knots. This afternoon should be pleasant with
sunny skies and highs ranging from the upper 50s across the south to
near 50 across the north. Winds will remain generally light.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday night
As of 315 am est Saturday...

sensible weather over the weekend into early next week characterized
by gradually moderating temperatures, as previously referenced sfc
high pressure builds overhead. Progressive, quasi-zonal will bring a
quiet, pleasant weekend. Despite the modest warm up, temperatures
remain at or just below climo norms. Highs in the 50s to near 60
each day. Early morning lows ranging through the 30s to near 40.

A weak cold front approaches the region late Monday into Tuesday,
but with limited moisture and weak forcing to work with, not
expecting much of any precipitation across the region. Monday will
see warming out ahead of this system with temperatures climbing up
into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 253 pm est Friday...

fairly quiet weather expected through at least Thu night, as the
large-scale pattern will be characterized by a longwave trough
centered over ERN canada. This will put us in NW flow aloft through
thu. At the sfc, weak low pressure tracks from the great lakes to
new england from Mon night-tue. This will drag a cold front through
the region during the first part of the day on tue. While moisture
will be lacking with this fropa, there is a slight chc of light rain
over the northwestern half of the CWA from Mon night-tue. Dry
weather will prevail from Tue aftn-thu night as sfc high pressure
settles over the region. The latest gfs ECMWF gem are in agreement
that an area of low pressure develops over the central ERN gulf of
mexico late next week and then moves nne ne. However, the models
differ on the evolution of this feature. The GFS is fastest as it
tracks it to just off the nc coast by late Fri night. This solution
would bring rain to the eastern half of the CWA as early as late
Friday am. Both the ECMWF gem are slower with the NE movement of the
low, as they keep our entire CWA dry through next Saturday am. At
this time, am leaning slightly toward the ECMWF gem solution. Went
ahead and introduced slight chc pops over SE va NE nc on fri
increasing to between 15-30% over southern eastern parts of the cwa
by Sat am.

Highs in the 50s on Tue will drop into the mid-upper 40s
north around 50 south on wed. Warming back up into the 50s area-wide
on Thu fri. Lows Tue Wed night mainly in the low 30s inland upper
30s to around 40 in coastal SE va-ne nc. Slightly warmer on thu
night with lows ranging from the low 30s NW to the low-mid 40s over
the far se.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
As of 1250 pm est Saturday...

vfr conditions across area terminals this afternoon... With the
lone exception with some bay-induced MVFR CIGS across the
eastern tidewater area, which is bringing some sct-bkn
stratucumulus and high-end MVFR CIGS to korf and vicinity this
afternoon. Expect these clouds at ~2.5-3 kft agl to break within
the next few hours, with high confidence that dry,VFR
conditions will prevail through the 18z TAF period. Winds will
remain generally light and variable through the forecast period
away from the coast.

Outlook:VFR and dry conditions will continue through early next
week as high pressure builds across the region.

Marine
As of 315 am est Saturday...

high pressure is centered from the ohio valley into the
deep south early this morning, while strong low pressure is located
over the canadian maritimes. The pressure gradient has relaxed
presently over the local area with a nnw wind of 10-15kt N and 5-
10kt s. High-res data suggests a brief northerly surge will occur
over the middle bay 1-2hr either side of 12z 7 am with wind speeds
approaching 20kt. Therefore, an SCA has been issued for the bay N of
new point comfort through 15z. The other SCA for the ocean N of
parramore is. Will be allowed to expire at 09z 4 am as seas have
dropped below 5ft. Otherwise, expect a northerly wind of 10-15kt
later this morning diminishing to 5-10kt this aftn. The wind will
become NE later tonight with speeds less than 15kt as high pressure
builds N of the region. High pressure slides offshore Sunday into
Monday, with the wind becoming SE later Sunday, then SW Sunday night
into Monday with speeds AOB 15kt. A cold front moves through the
area Tuesday, with the wind becoming NW then N by Tuesday night.

Strong high pressure builds N of the region Wednesday into Thursday
resulting in a persistent NE wind. Seas will initially be 3-4ft
today, then subside to 2-3ft Sunday through Wednesday, and then
build later in the week as NE flow continues.

Hydrology
As of 315 am est Saturday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for mattoax on the
appomattox, lawrenceville on the meherrin, sebrell on the
nottoway, richmond westham on the james, and richmond locks on
the james.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajb
near term... Ajb mam
short term... Ajb mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajb mam
marine... Ajz
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi34 min S 1 G 2.9 52°F 49°F1023.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi40 min NW 7 G 8
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi34 min NNE 5.1 G 8 48°F 49°F1024.2 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi34 min N 1.9 51°F 1025 hPa37°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair53°F33°F47%1024.8 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair52°F34°F52%1024 hPa

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4S4W4Calm3
1 day agoN7N75NW8NW6NW9W9W7W8W10SW7W8SW7SW7SW5SW7SW8W8SW9SW12SW11
G19
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2 days agoN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm35335--NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Sat -- 12:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     2.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:10 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:35 PM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:33 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.22.32.21.91.410.60.40.20.40.91.522.32.32.11.71.20.80.50.30.30.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Royal, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Port Royal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:25 AM EST     1.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:52 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:01 PM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:19 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.71.51.20.80.40.30.20.30.61.11.51.71.81.71.310.60.40.20.30.511.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.