Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sanford, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:54PM Monday September 25, 2017 4:41 PM EDT (20:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:57AMMoonset 9:27PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 432 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt in the evening, then becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the waters through tonight, then it will weaken overhead Tuesday through Wednesday as hurricane maria drifts north to northeast off the north carolina coast. A cold front will pass through the area Thursday and a reinforcing cold front will pass through late Friday into Friday night. High pressure will likely return for the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday night through Wednesday night and gale force winds are possible Thursday. Refer to the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sanford, VA
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location: 37.98, -75.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 251947
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
347 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the mid atlantic through
Tuesday. Meanwhile, maria will continue to track north well off
the coast while gradually weakening. Maria lingers off the outer
banks Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead
of an approaching cold front late in the week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
High pressure remains anchored over the ERN great lakes and
northeast CONUS this afternoon. Hurricane maria (presently a
category 1) is situated ~300mi sse of CAPE hatteras. There are
varying amounts of cloud cover over the area this afternoon with
mostly sunny conditions north west... And low stratus stratocu
cover immediate coastal locations into SE va NE nc. There's no
pcpn to speak of at the moment as outermost bands from maria
remain off the outer banks. Based on current trends will hold
off on introducing low pops until after 00z across the
southeast. Increased low-level moisture along the immediate
coast this afternoon will quickly spread inland this evening
with overcast conditions becoming prominent most areas
overnight. Lows temps will range from the mid 60s inland to the
low 70s along the immediate coast.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of
due N as an upper low drops sewd across fl. Increasing moisture
and some outer banded features will result in 20-35% pops along
and E of i-95 Tuesday. QPF will be minimal for most areas. Highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky.

Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to
15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

Maria reaches about 160mi ese of CAPE hatteras by 00z
Wednesday, around 150mi E of CAPE hatteras by 12z Wednesday, and
then 140-180mi ene of CAPE hatteras by 00z Thursday as some
spread remains in the guidance. NHC has maria weakening to a
tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will
result in minimal rainfall across SE va NE nc (and coastal md to
a lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less. There is still a
potential for modestly strong wind gusts south of CAPE charles
on the coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from orf va
beach to the currituck county beaches (including the currituck
sound). Tropical storm watches for these areas are currently in
effect which may be upgraded to warnings later this afternoon.

High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will
also occur along the coast. Will have pops of 20-40% east of
i-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE nc Tue night), with slight chc pops
into the piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from around
norfolk va beach southward into coastal NE nc. The biggest
impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion
along near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast to the
low mid 80s inland, after morning lows in the 60s and low 70s.

By 12z thu, maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ene of CAPE hatteras, then pushing well offshore by late in the
day. Will carry lingering slight chc pops (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs from the upr 70 coast to low mid
80s inland.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the great lakes and northeastern us
Friday and Saturday. This trough will serve to escort maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night. This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday. But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across new
england and down the eastern seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. To mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
MVFR to local ifr conditions are prominent along the immediate
coast and portions of SE va NE nc this afternoon. Elsewhere,VFR
conditions prevail with a clear mainly clear sky. MVFR cigs
will gradually push farther inland this evening, reaching kric
around 03z, and potentially falling to ifr overnight at all taf
sites. A NE wind of 10-15kt along the immediate coast this
afternoon tonight will increase to 15-20kt with gusts around 25
kt Tuesday morning.

Outlook: increasing moisture from maria will result in a 20-40%
chc for showers Tuesday Wednesday. Locally stronger wind
speeds gusts are expected at orf ecg Tuesday night Wednesday. A
cold front approaches from the NW Thursday Friday and pushes
maria farther offshore with conditions improving
Thursday Friday.

Marine
Hurricane maria is located about 380 miles sse of CAPE hatteras
nc as of 500 am. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered
north of the area. The hurricane is forecast to track northward
well off the SE coast today into this evening, then moves to
well east of the nc outer banks by early Wed morning. The storm
will then start to track northeast Wed aftn and evening, then
accelerate ene out to sea late Wed night into Thu night. Ne
winds and waves seas will start to increase build over the
waters, esply SRN waters, this evening into Tue morning, as the
storm moves northward to well off the SE nc coast. NE winds will
increase to 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt by Tue morning,
with waves building to 2-5 ft (near 6 ft mouth of the bay), and
seas building to 6-10 ft.

Strongest NE winds and highest waves and seas will affect the
waters Tue night into Wed night with gusts to 35-45 kt a good
bet over the SRN ches bay, currituck sound, and va nc coastal
waters. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the currituck
sound, and SRN waters from the va nc border to currituck beach
light until 12z 800 am Thu morning. Aforementioned areas above
may be added to the watch this aftn, since impacts farther
north of the watch area are not anticipated to begin until tue
evening. Elsewhere, strong solid SCA conditions (20-30kt) will
occur. Seas will build as high as 14-15 ft south and 10-14 ft
north. N winds will then diminish west to east late Wed night
thru thu.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor to possibly moderate tidal flooding could occur at many
sites in the middle to lower bay, and SRN va and NE nc coastal
waters Wed into Thu morning. High surf advisories have been
issued for tue, and lasting into wed. The combination of storm
surge and large waves could result in some coastal erosion and
damage to dune structures later Tue into Wed night.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues through today, as 4-5 ft nearshore waves and
13-15 second swell persists.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Tropical storm watch for ncz015>017-102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz632-634-638.

Tropical storm watch for anz633-656-658.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Tuesday
for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ess
aviation... Ajz jdm
marine... Bmd tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 22 mi71 min 74°F8 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 26 mi41 min NE 11 G 16 72°F 78°F1015.6 hPa (-0.7)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi41 min NE 9.9 G 14 84°F 81°F1015.4 hPa (-1.5)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 37 mi41 min E 14 G 16 1015.9 hPa (-0.8)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 37 mi41 min E 6 G 8.9 70°F 74°F1016.8 hPa (-1.0)
44042 - Potomac, MD 38 mi31 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 1014.3 hPa
OCSM2 39 mi161 min 4 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 44 mi31 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 1 ft1015.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 44 mi41 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 79°F1015.1 hPa (-1.5)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 47 mi41 min 84°F 80°F1016.4 hPa (-1.3)
BTHD1 49 mi161 min 3 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi41 min E 8 G 11

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA9 mi47 minENE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F70°F90%1015.7 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA24 mi46 minE 12 G 1610.00 miOvercast74°F69°F85%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E5NE3N3CalmN3N4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmN5N3E9E8E9E8NE9NE11NE11NE13E11NE12
1 day agoSE5--SE3S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmW4W3NW5NW5N3NE8NE7NE9E9NE9NE6E7
2 days agoNW8--NW4CalmW3W6NW5W5W7NW6NW6NW5NW6NW4N4N5N6NE7N7E6E7SE6SE8SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Shelltown, Pocomoke River, Maryland
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Shelltown
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:14 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:54 PM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.91.522.32.42.21.91.51.10.70.60.611.52.22.62.82.62.421.51.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Saxis, Starling Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Saxis
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:52 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:17 PM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:26 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.31.82.22.32.221.61.30.90.70.70.91.31.92.42.72.62.42.11.71.310.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.